I don’t normally follow themes when writing this column, but a few began to emerge as I went through my list of players. Two themes, to be exact.
The first is the trend of players on the same team. At least two pairs of teammates are highlighted in two-of-the-four sections. This is noteworthy because said players obviously share the same situations, and both are performing at a level worthy of attention from this article.
The second trend is the result of key acquisitions from this past offseason, and this is more about timing than anything else. We would have been perfectly within our right to take a “wait-and-see” approach entering the year. Now? We’ve waited, and we’ve seen.
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Hitters to Buy
Nolan Arenado (3B – STL)
One of the biggest stories of the offseason was the trade of Nolan Arenado from the Colorado Rockies to the St. Louis Cardinals, but this impacted much more than the on-field outcomes for both teams. Fantasy managers cared about Arenado’s ultimate landing spot as soon as rumors swirled that he might depart Colorado, as any other ballpark would have been perceived as a “step down” in the offensive department.
It hasn’t mattered.
Indeed, Arenado doesn’t have the benefit of hitting in Coors Field for half of his games, but he is still in the top-20 for Offensive WAR with a .307 batting average and ten home runs. In April, he was a “buy-low” candidate relative to his prior years’ ADP. Now, he’s a “buy-high” option who should continue to hit like a superstar.
Jared Walsh (1B/OF – LAA)
I will always approach a high batting average carefully but, even with the expected regression of Jared Walsh — he is sitting at a rather unsustainable .333 average — he finds himself in the top-ten in the league for Offensive WAR. He’s doing a little bit of everything, too. Walsh has swiped two bags — I wouldn’t count on that part on a weekly basis — has driven in 30 runs, scored 17 of his own, and has seven home runs.
Perhaps the most important element of Walsh’s game is that he has turned into a regular for a Los Angeles Angels lineup that includes Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Based on the batting order for a given game, he will either be protected by the two aforementioned sluggers, or he is likely to be hitting with one of them on base.
Justin Turner (3B – LAD)
Justin Turner keeps producing. The veteran third baseman is now hitting .296 with seven home runs, although his power has cooled off in May — just one home run — compared to April — in which he hit the other six. That’s not a problem. If anything, this is the dip when we should be buying, despite Turner’s price being “high.”
Like Walsh and the Angels, Turner is an important piece of a powerful Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, where he will continue to receive regular at-bats in prime positions. His soft-hit percentage is also at his lowest point of the last four years, so this season’s success should only continue.
Pitchers to Buy
Trevor Bauer (SP – LAD)
The Los Angeles Dodgers won the “Trevor Bauer Sweepstakes” this past offseason, and they have not been disappointed. As of this writing, he is pitching to a 2.20 ERA with a 12.09 K/9. These numbers are not far off from his 2020 statistics, for which Bauer won the NL Cy Young Award.
If we look back over the last few years, Bauer’s numbers are excellent, with the exception of 2019. Otherwise, he’s kept his ERA under 2.30 in 2018, 2020, and this season — which is incredibly impressive. Any concerns fantasy managers could have had when Bauer joined his new team has since been erased. He’s undeniably one of the best pitchers in the game.
Julio Urias (SP – LAD)
Clearly, the Los Angeles Dodgers are not devoid of talent in their starting rotation, as Julio Urias is the second name on this list where I am willing to “buy high.” The young left-handed starter just went 6.2 innings against the Diamondbacks, struck out eight, and allowed only one run. That dropped his ERA to 3.04.
Really, the only struggle with drafting Urias during the offseason was the expectation for how many innings he would ultimately pitch. This appears to be less of a problem than many anticipated, as he has completed six innings or more in six of his nine starts. There is a chance that the Dodgers eventually limit him, but he’s been so impressive that fantasy managers should look to reap the rewards for as long as possible.
Freddy Peralta (SP – MIL)
The Milwaukee Brewers continue to churn out starting pitchers that are not only helping themselves but also fantasy baseball managers. The newest one to acquire? Freddy Peralta.
Peralta’s numbers are excellent everywhere, but the two strongest pieces of the puzzle come from his strikeout rate and xERA. The former is flat-out incredible, as he is averaging 13.80 K/9, the third-highest rate among all qualified pitchers. The latter is an xERA of 2.06, which is one-quarter of a run lower than his actual ERA of 2.40. This suggests that Peralta might only get better in the coming weeks.
Hitters to Sell
Jorge Soler (OF – KC)
I often search for and write about regression and outliers. Here are Jorge Soler’s home run totals for all seven of his prior career seasons: 5, 10, 12, 2, 48, and 8. Of course, there are reasons for these numbers to be so misaligned — essentially, playing time and the length of the 2020 season — but the message is clear: Soler’s breakout campaign of 48 home runs in 2019 now looks like an extreme outlier.
We’re halfway through May, and Soler has only hit three home runs on the season. This is probably because his hard-hit percentage has now reached a four-year low. Until that turns around, his power numbers will likely stay low.
Nick Senzel (2B/OF – CIN)
One of the knocks on Nick Senzel as he made his way through the Cincinnati Reds’ Minor League system is that he couldn’t stay healthy. As of this writing, Senzel is technically able to play but was recently dealing with an injury. His reputation appears to have been correct.
Outside of health concerns, Senzel also isn’t contributing anything of value. His speed was supposed to be enough of an asset that it wouldn’t be completely lost, but he has just two stolen bases on the year. As sad as that sounds, it’s double the number of home runs he has hit to date.
Eugenio Suarez (3B/SS – CIN)
From one member of the Cincinnati Reds to another, I’m ready to “sell-low” on Eugenio Suarez. The amazing part of this portion of the article is that the Reds have one of the most potent offenses in baseball, yet Suarez is severely lagging behind. That would read like an opportunity for a positive correction, but the numbers aren’t there.
Suarez isn’t walking, but he is striking out at the worst rate of his career. He’s showing some power in that he has an impressive eight home runs, but that’s all he’s bringing to the table. His batting average is a paltry .162, while his slugging percentage is only .365. Unless you’re strictly in a league that values power at the expense of everything else, Suarez is almost definitely hurting your roster.
Pitchers to Sell
Jordan Montgomery (SP – NYY)
While Jordan Montgomery has not been particularly bad, his arrow is tilting more down than up as he approaches his second-longest season in Major League Baseball. It’s time to be careful.
Montgomery has pitched more than 44 innings only once in his now-five-year career, as Tommy John surgery derailed what looked like a bright future. There is no reason to think he won’t get there, but his return to effectiveness will not be immediate. Already, we see that in his numbers.
To Montgomery’s credit, his xERA is a solid 3.77, where some positive regression may still be in the works. The issue is that his strikeout rate is back down below one-per-inning, while his soft-hit percentage is the second-lowest of his career. This is a dangerous combination, and I would want to be out ahead of the potential decline.
Carlos Martinez (SP – STL)
I typically try not to list players who are either injured in this section, but Carlos Martinez is an exception. Years ago, he was extremely relevant in the fantasy baseball world, but he completely crumbled in the 20 innings he pitched in 2020. It was easy to argue that the season was an outlier — it was, as his 9.90 ERA was nearly triple his career mark of 3.55 — but there is a strange connection between this year and last.
In 2020, Martinez pitched to the abysmal 9.90 ERA, but his xERA was 5.97 — which is still atrocious, but nearly three runs better than what was happening on the surface. Now, his ERA is a decent 4.35, but his xERA is 5.28. Put another way, we probably just saw his regression and, if that’s the best we are going to get from Martinez, it’s time to move on from him.
Patrick Corbin (SP – WSH)
Patrick Corbin had been completely unpredictable in 2020. He started the year with three consecutive games in which he pitched at least six innings and allowed three runs or fewer, then struggled against the Mets to the tune of allowing 4ER in 4 innings and rebounded with six shutout innings against the Cardinals. After that? 15 earned runs allowed over his next two games.
Corbin did turn in a decent start on Tuesday night, going five innings while allowing three earned runs, but it’s not enough. His ERA is still above 6.00, and his strikeout rate is hovering near career lows.
Like so many other players, Corbin was a common target as a player who could erase a bad 2020, but no such turnaround has occurred. At this point, I would rather try to find another willing buyer than be the fantasy manager still waiting for said rebound.
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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros and the creator and content editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.