June is almost here and hardcore redraft managers are now starting to dip their toes back into the fantasy football pool. While a handful of drafts have already happened, it’s still a bit early to determine who’s a bust based upon average draft position (ADP). More draft data is needed for ADP to be as accurate as can be. At this stage of the game, it’s best to take a look at which players the industry is ranking at the top that either surpassed our expectations last year, have less upside than some of the guys ranked beneath them, or had a negative change in their situation due to free agency or the draft. With that being said, our featured analysts take an early look at which RBs and WRs are the biggest bust candidates in 2021.
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Q1. What RB in our consensus top 24 should fantasy managers fear the most as a bust candidate?
Antonio Gibson (WAS): Consensus Rank – 13
“Do you know how many snaps Gibson played in 2020? 405 of them. That’s an average of 28.9 per game. He played 40-plus snaps just twice all season. Do you know how many snaps the top-tier running backs typically play? Anywhere from 40-60 per game. The Football Team still has J.D. McKissic and Peyton Barber on the team, both of whom took valuable touches away from Gibson his rookie season. It’s the same coaching staff, and now they have even more talent at wide receiver and a quarterback who doesn’t check down nearly as much. Gibson might see an increased role, but at this RB13 price, he absolutely needs to.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)
Alvin Kamara (NO): Consensus Rank – 5
“I know picking last year’s scoring leader to bust will not be a common choice, but hear me out. This is dependent on who the starting quarterback in New Orleans will be. If there’s any chance it is Taysom Hill, then I’m fading Kamara this year. Outside of the Philadelphia game in which New Orleans was down big the whole time and checked down, he had just three catches on six targets for seven yards receiving with Hill under center during Weeks 10-12. With just three career 100-yard rushing days to his name, Kamara is dependent on the receiving work, which I do not see happening if Hill is behind center.”
– Michael Tomlin (Fantasy Six Pack)
Cam Akers (LAR): Consensus Rank – 10
“This is more about Sean McVay and the offense that Matthew Stafford will now run than it is about Akers or his abilities. With Stafford at quarterback, I expect the Rams to be a more pass-centric team than they were a season ago when they were 26th in the league in terms of run/pass ratio. There is no denying what Akers did when given the majority of the workload at the end of last season, but we can’t forget how the first 11 weeks of the season played out either. It wouldn’t be surprising to see McVay use a committee approach in the first half of the season and then rely on Akers down the stretch again. That may be great for the Rams, but not so much your fantasy team when you’re drafting him as an RB1.”
– Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed)
D’Andre Swift (DET): Consensus Rank – 14
“After just finishing my projections for the Detroit Lions, I can officially say that I’m scared about Swift in 2021. He’s certainly going to get plenty of work to be a viable fantasy option, but this offense is not going to be anything special next season. With no true WR threats to take away attention, NFL defenses are going to be focused in on halting Swift. After factoring in Jamaal Williams and his assumed receiving workload too, plus the limited scoring opportunities, ranking Swift at RB14 right now is a little bit too much for me.”
– Kyle Yates (FantasyPros)
Miles Sanders (PHI): Consensus Rank – 16
“Sanders has been released from Doug Pederson, but that doesn’t make him a lock as an RB1. Currently, Sanders is hovering in that low-end RB1/high-end RB2 range, and ahead of players coming off a better season (David Montgomery) or that have more upside (Najee Harris). Sanders is an explosive player, but so is his QB Jalen Hurts, who could steal some of those moments from Sanders in 2021.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
Q2. What WR in our consensus top 24 should fantasy managers fear the most as a bust candidate?
Mike Evans (TB): Consensus Rank – 14
“While normally I would choose Kenny Golladay for this, I’m sure others will as well so I’ll go ahead and pick on Evans. The obvious — his quarterback is going to be 44 years old by Week 1. The not-so-obvious — even though Evans played all 16 games, he had his lowest reception and target totals since his rookie season. Yes, he squeaked by the 1,000-yard mark again, but his fantasy point total was boosted by an extremely high touchdown rate. If he scored at the same rate as the previous three seasons, his half-PPR end-of-year ranking would have dropped from WR10 to WR27. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Tampa and Tom Brady spreads the ball around well.”
– Michael Tomlin (Fantasy Six Pack)
“Do I think that Mike Evans is going to be completely fantasy irrelevant? No. However, there’s too much inconsistency for me to rank Evans as a top-15 option for next season. He saw three receptions or less in seven of 16 games last season. While he was incredibly efficient in the touchdown department, there’s too much volatility there for me to draft Evans at his current price tag. He certainly comes with upside, but the week-in and week-out production might cause fantasy managers to view him as a bust.”
– Kyle Yates (FantasyPros)
Kenny Golladay (NYG): Consensus Rank – 21
“I’ll go with Golladay. He had the privilege of working with Matthew Stafford early in his NFL career, a quarterback who had no issues throwing into tight coverage and throwing the deep ball. While Daniel Jones isn’t against throwing into tight coverage, he doesn’t take many deep shots. The Giants suddenly have an extremely crowded room of pass-catchers, as Golladay joins Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Kadarius Toney, Evan Engram, Kyle Rudolph, and Saquon Barkley. It’s just hard to see him getting 120-plus targets with all those viable options. When looking at receivers in the top-24, he gets me the least excited to roster.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)
“I love Kenny Golladay as a talent, and he’s getting a lot of attention because he signed in New York — perhaps too much attention. Daniel Jones is a turnover machine during his tenure with the Giants, and it’s difficult for a fantasy wide receiver to excel when his QB literally takes the ball out of his hands. The downgrade from Matthew Stafford to Daniel Jones is significant and Golladay draws some tough CB opponents to open the season. The ‘too big to fail’ theory didn’t play out well in Denver last year. Don’t chase it again in New York.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
Davante Adams (GB): Consensus Rank – 2
“This is solely based on the assumption that Aaron Rodgers will not be throwing Adams the ball. We should have more clarity on the situation throughout the summer, but our rankings haven’t yet reflected that possible reality. Adams is a great player and will perform no matter who the quarterback is, just not to the tune of being the No. 2 ranked wide receiver.”
– Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed)
Thank you to the experts for giving us their early busts. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter and subscribe to our podcast below for advice all year round.
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