MLB Daily Fantasy Primer: Saturday (4/3)

There are five games on Saturday’s main slate. The medium-sized slate has one obvious game to target for offense, and a pair of pitchers are in a class apart from the rest of the pack.

Saturday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

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Saturday’s Starting Pitcher Strategy

There aren’t any five-figure starting pitchers, making it easier to use the top arms. Turning to the top-two options — Burnes and Musgrove — is the strategy I’m deploying on the majority of my daily baseball rosters. Cobb and Smith are DraftKings SP2 options only.

Cash Game Recommendations:

Corbin Burnes (MIL) vs. MIN

Burnes broke out in last year’s pandemic-shortened season. He dazzled with a 2.11 ERA, 3.18 SIERA, and 1.02 WHIP, according to FanGraphs. The young righty boosts his floor and ceiling with massive strikeout ability, fanning 36.7% of the batters he faced last year.

The floor makes him my co-favorite in cash games at DraftKings and my second-favorite option at FanDuel. However, his punch-out potential makes him a great GPP option as well at both sites. As a bonus, the lack of a designated hitter provides him a Twins’ lineup sans Nelson Cruz.

Joe Musgrove (SD) vs. ARI

Musgrove offers a $600 salary discount from Burnes at FanDuel, helping him nip Milwaukee’s front-line starter for my top cash-games arm there. Using the two in tandem at DraftKings is my preferred option there. According to Betting Pros Consensus, he and the Padres are massive -200 favorites in a game with a non-threatening over/under of 8.5 runs.

Musgrove’s produced impressive underlying numbers that his surface stats have fallen short of throughout most of his career, but he closed the gap last year. In eight starts spanning 39.2 innings, he recorded a 3.86 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 33.1 K%, and 14.4 SwStr%. He’s previously shown bat-missing ability but failed to turn it into punch-outs until last year. He looks like the real deal and, like Burnes, has a high floor and sky-high ceiling that play in all game types.

GPP Recommendations:

Alex Cobb (LAA) vs. CHW

Cobb is the first of two DK-only options. Cobb’s note on MLB.com’s probable pitcher page notes the veteran righty’s “showing improved velocity after fixing his mechanics in the offseason with a trip to Driveline.” A little extra velocity could play well with his putaway splitter.

Cobb’s splitter generated a 21.8 SwStr% and 48.0 O-Swing% last year, giving him a strikeout offering if he gets a hitter to two strikes. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher, but he did strike out five or more batters in four of 10 starts last year. Cobb’s an average pitcher, but he can clear the low bar set for providing value at his modest salary in a good start.

Caleb Smith (ARI) at SD

Smith missed time last year on the COVID-19 IL and pitched in just five games spanning 14.0 innings. The Diamondbacks acquired him in a trade, and he showed the good and the bad in his limited time with them, striking out 26.7% of the batters he faced while walking 13.3% of them.

Smith’s a volatile pitcher who can get too wild and walk his way to a short start. At his best, however, he can be effectively wild and pile up the strikeouts in bunches. If you’re using him, you’re chasing the upper end of his range of outcomes.

Top Lineup Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers Projected Lineup

*Editor’s Note: Mookie Betts and Justin Turner are not in the lineup for Saturday’s matchup against the Rockies.

Road (Coors Field)

Value: Low

Risk: Low

Game Type: Both

Game Total/Moneyline: 11 Runs/LAD -225

The Dodgers were chalky last night, and they’ll be chalky again tonight. Being on a high percentage of rosters shouldn’t preclude you from using them in GPPs, though. They hung a crooked number last night, and they’re likely to do the same again tonight in MLB’s top environment for offensive production.

San Francisco Giants Projected Lineup

Home (T-Mobile Park)

Value: High

Risk: Medium

Game Type: Both

Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/SF -115

The Giants will have an extra hitter in the lineup with the designated hitter spot, playing in an American League park. It’s not a star-studded lineup, but it’s filled with value options to complement the pricey Dodgers stack.

They’ll take cuts against thoroughly below-average starting pitcher Chris Flexen. Flexen returns stateside after a great showing in Korean Baseball Organization. Still, an 8.07 ERA in 68.0 innings in his MLB career is worthy of stacking against until he proves his success abroad translates here.

Milwaukee Brewers Projected Lineup

Home (American Family Field)

Value: Medium

Risk: High

Game Type: GPP

Game Total/Moneyline: 7.5 Runs/MIL -125

Looking to be contrarian in GPPs? This is the lineup to turn to. American Family Field (formerly known as Miller Park) has a park factor of 1.080 for homers. Yelich is the lineup’s crown jewel, but Hiura and Shaw also have above-average power that plays well in this homer-friendly park.

Opposing starter Jose Berrios is good, but he’s not great. He’s also coming off his highest ERA (4.00) and SIERA (4.39) since his rookie season. Additionally, Baseball Savant credited him with a .322 xwOBA, notably higher than his .307 wOBA. I wouldn’t use this lineup for cash games, but stacking it and sprinkling in some exposure to the Dodgers is appealing in GPPs.

Core Studs

*Editor’s Note: Mookie Betts is not in the lineup for Saturday’s matchup against the Rockies.

• Betts leads off for the high-powered Dodgers’ offense at Coors Field. Don’t get sticker shock. Just lock him in.
• Bellinger makes it two-for-two core studs from the Dodgers in Colorado. The team’s cleanup hitter has a .279 ISO, .383 OBP, and 149 wRC+ against righties since 2018.
• Seager rounds the core studs out as a third member of the Dodgers. They reached double-digit runs last night, and Seager’s ripped righties for a .362 OBP, .239 ISO, and 136 wRC+ since 2018.

Value Plays/Punts

• Vaughn sat on Opening Day, but he hit fifth last night. The rookie slugger’s one of the top hitting prospects in MLB, yet he’s priced at the minimum salary on FanDuel and only $100 above the minimum salary at DraftKings.
• Madrigal won’t wow spectators with power, but he gets the bat on everything. He’s reached base at a .411 clip in 90 plate appearances against righties in his career.
• Longoria’s in the twilight of his career, but he can still put a charge into the ball, as evidenced by his .521 xSLG last year. He’s already mashed a tater this year.
• Unlike Longoria, Belt has the platoon advantage against Flexen. The veteran first baseman torched righties for a .456 OBP, .309 ISO, and 197 wRC+ last year.

Saturday’s Hitter Strategy

Lock the core studs from the Dodgers in your cash games and GPP lineups. They’re the backbone of my roster builds, and I’ll round rosters out with value options. The lack of high-end pitching commanding five-figure salaries makes it easy to fit the studs from the Dodgers under the cap along with the top pitching plays.

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Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.