With less than 24 hours remaining to strike a deal, the Green Bay Packers were able to re-sign running back Aaron Jones. With many expecting Jones to hit free agency this week, the signing certainly sends waves through the fantasy landscape. We’re here to share the fantasy football impact — both in 2021 redraft and dynasty leagues — of the signing.
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What is the fantasy football impact of Aaron Jones re-signing with the Packers in 2021 redraft leagues?
AJ Dillon truthers collectively wept Sunday as one of the biggest free-agent dominoes of the 2021 season fell. My first thought is the price of the contract. Green Bay is known for being notoriously cheap with free agents and handing Jones a $48M deal was shocking. Even more shocking was just how bad the Packers front office looks after selecting Dillon in the second round of last year’s draft. Jones’ big payday should ensure he’s heavily utilized while under contract, keeping him firmly in the RB1 conversation in 2021. Dillon’s dynasty value clearly takes a hit, and those who sold high are likely pleased. What can we expect from Jones this season? He’s garnered 533 total touches for 3,017 scrimmage yards and 30 total scores over the last two seasons, and if Jamal Williams leaves in free agency, more touches should open up for Jones. He’s got a 1,200-yard, 10+ touchdown floor heading into the new campaign as a very wealthy man.
– Zachary Hanshew
Jones currently sits as the ECR’s RB9, but now that his future is secure and he’s headed back to Green Bay, I’d be willing to take him as early as RB7 in redraft leagues. With Jamaal Williams likely headed elsewhere in free agency, the Packers will rely on Jones and second-year running back AJ Dillon to shoulder the load out of the backfield. Last season, Jones finished as the RB5 in PPR leagues despite missing two games and sharing the workload with Williams and Dillon. Jones has also proven to be a valuable commodity as a pass-catcher for the Packers the last two seasons, averaging 4.4 targets per game. Dillon, on the other hand, while not playing much in 2020, saw just two targets from Aaron Rodgers. Given the four-year, $48M extension, Green Bay clearly values what they have in Aaron Jones, and for 2021 redraft leagues, so should you. As for Dillon, he becomes a high-end handcuff with the potential to return RB3 value, similar to Gus Edwards in Baltimore.
– Adam Koffler
With the Packers deciding to retain Aaron Jones, he immediately finds his way into the first-round tier of running backs again. He finished as the RB5 in 2020 and RB2 in 2019, and there’s no reason to expect the Packers would invest $48M without plans to keep him heavily involved. Jones has been in a frustrating timeshare with Jamaal Williams for the last few seasons, seeing just 58% of the offensive snaps over that time. Still, he made the most of his limited time, garnering the 10th-most touches among running backs in consecutive seasons and racking up 30 touchdowns from scrimmage. At just 26 years old, Jones has yet to reach his athletic prime and should turn in RB1 numbers again in 2021. Given his innate nose for the end zone and elite elusiveness, the fifth-year back offers one of the highest upside in the league next year.
– Dave Kluge
Re-signing with the only organization he’s ever known can only be viewed as a good thing for Jones’ immediate fantasy value. His impending free agency made him a volatile fantasy asset entering this offseason. We know Green Bay is a good fit for him, but it was always tough to envision another landing spot actually increasing his value. Of course, we no longer have to worry about that. The 26-year-old finished as a top-five fantasy running back in each of the past two seasons, and with the Packers retaining their core offense entering 2021, Jones will remain a perfect target at the 1/2 turn of drafts this year. His short-term outlook will become even more attractive should Jamaal Williams sign elsewhere this month.
– Brendan Tuma
Aaron Jones agreeing to terms to stay with the Green Bay Packers is tremendous for his fantasy value. System familiarity, the pending departure of Jamaal Williams, and his proven success in the offensive scheme all bode well for his chances for remaining an RB1 for the 2021 season. Yes, AJ Dillon will see an expanded role, but there are at least 10 touches per game available for Dillon to claim with Williams out of town. Jones should continue to thrive as the Packers’ undisputed lead back, while Dillon serves as a change-of-pace and short-yardage option.
– Raju Byfield
What is the fantasy football impact of Aaron Jones re-signing with the Packers in dynasty leagues?
Knowing Aaron Jones is locked to the Packers through 2024 gives him a slight uptick in his dynasty value, but nothing drastic. Whether he was in Green Bay or another city, the slippery back is a top talent that would have found success almost anywhere. His skill and his age seemed fair for his pre-contract ranking. Given the investment he’d have commanded in free agency, Jones would have been signed with the opportunity to be a starter wherever he landed. However, Jones is already 26 years old and will hit his apex within the next couple of seasons. With Aaron Rodgers now 37, his future is also far from guaranteed. D’Andre Swift, Cam Akers, Ezekiel Elliott, and J.K. Dobbins are directly ahead of Jones in our Expert Consensus Rankings, and it is difficult to move Jones above any of them. He stays where he’s ranked for me at RB12, while his fantasy managers receive a bit of peace of mind about his future.
– Dave Kluge
This offseason has been a whirlwind of emotions as it relates to Green Bay’s backfield from a dynasty perspective. Set to enter his sophomore campaign, AJ Dillon would’ve been a tremendous “buy” if Jones wound up signing elsewhere. Instead, Jones staying kills Dillon’s immediate outlook. Fantasy managers should now look to buy low on Dillon, though. As for Jones, it appears as if his four-year, $48 million deal doesn’t have many obligations past year two. He’ll be 28 by then, likely beginning to decline, and who knows where Aaron Rodgers will be. Staying in Green Bay ensures that Jones will be a fantasy RB1 in 2021, but his medium-to-long-term outlook is murky at best. He has far more value for dynasty managers currently contending.
– Brendan Tuma
Aaron Jones re-signing with the Packers has wide-reaching fantasy reverberations. AJ Dillon sees his RB1 level upside evaporate. Aaron Jones remains in a situation where he is one of the highest floor running backs for the next couple of seasons. At least one job will remain unfilled heading into the 2021 NFL Draft. Whether this is good news for Javonte Williams, Kenneth Gainwell, Michael Carter, Chuba Hubbard, or someone else remains to be seen, but Jones not locking down a starter’s job elsewhere bodes well for this year’s rookie running back crop. Aaron Jones should be locked in as the Packers’ starter for at least the next two seasons, at which point the Packers could walk away with minimal dead cap and hand the reins over to Dillon. Dillon will have standalone value going forward but may be more of a touchdown-dependent RB3 than an RB2.
– Raju Byfield
Lucrative second contracts for running backs are always a little dicey, as most guys tend to peak in their mid-20s. Jones will turn 27 in 2021, but he hasn’t been used like a true workhorse back throughout his four-year career. That being said, one has to believe the Packers aren’t in the business of running Jones into the ground in 2021, as they’ll hope to get the most bang for their buck over the course of the next few seasons. However, they still paid him $48M with a $13M signing bonus, so there’s no question he’s still the lead runner on the team. Jones should be able to return RB1 value for at least two more seasons. On the flip side of the coin, many believe AJ Dillon is now a worthless dynasty asset. My mind went in the exact opposite direction. I’d buy Dillon while his managers are panicking over the fact that he won’t be the lead back in 2021 or maybe even 2022. But if he can prove himself the next two seasons running as a complement to Jones, maybe the Packers start to feature him in a few years, and he becomes what Jones is to the Packers today. Always find an opportunity to buy low in dynasty leagues, and this feels like the perfect opportunity to do so with Dillon.
– Adam Koffler
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