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How To Value Rookies in Fantasy Football (Pre/Post-Draft)

How To Value Rookies in Fantasy Football (Pre/Post-Draft)

Raise your hand if you have a guy in your league who always drafts rookies thinking they’re going to be the next big thing. That guy is going to be puffing his chest out a little bit more after 2020 where we saw guys like Justin Jefferson and Jonathan Taylor have monster rookie seasons. There will also be the naysayers, saying they want proven production rather than the young, unproven rookies.

Where should you land? As is the case with most things in life, it’s not black and white. There are rules and there are outliers. What we want to find out is what’s the most likely scenario? How often do rookies hit in fantasy football? Does draft position matter?

Look, there are going to be some draft classes that are better than others. Every year, you’ll hear someone tell you that this is the year. What I’ve done is assembled an eight-year sample size to sift through and find out exactly what the results say. No, not my opinion, but rather cold-hard facts that can’t be disputed.

When starting this research, I not only wanted to find out what the odds were of a player contributing to fantasy in year one, but I also wanted to find out if their actual draft position (in the NFL Draft) mattered. For instance, because a wide receiver is drafted in the second round, is he more likely to succeed than one drafted in the fourth round? Is that because he gets more opportunity or simply because he’s more talented? Let’s look at the history of players drafted by round in the NFL Draft.

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