It’s still very early in the fantasy draft process – I’m writing this in late March. We are at the tail end of free agency, with most of the major players having already signed, but we’re still well before the NFL Draft. Much can and will change between now and when we draft our teams.
Even amidst all the moving pieces, there are a handful of players I am ready to push my chips in on for the upcoming season. As you may have guessed, you won’t see names like Christian McCaffrey, Davante Adams, or any early-round player on this list. The following players are not without some concerns but are players I am already sold on for 2021.
This is my second year writing this article and last years did pretty well.
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Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)
What can I say that hasn’t already been said about Justin Herbert? He’s coming off one of the most impressive rookie seasons of all time. He finished as the overall QB8 in a season where his grossly incompetent head coach didn’t even think he was ready to start over Tyrod Taylor. Herbert hit 20 fantasy points in eight of his first nine starts, which included an overall QB1 finish. Herbert was elite when using play-action, completing the third-highest percentage of throws in the NFL in that department. He was not afraid to push the ball down the field, and with the Chargers likely adding a receiver (ideally a burner), Herbert’s receiving options will only improve his chances of building upon his rookie season.
It’s too early to care about ADP, but Herbert is currently about the QB9. His 22.6 ppg last season was less than 2.0 ppg fewer than the QB3 overall, Kyler Murray. For context, 22.6 ppg would’ve been the overall QB2 every season since 2014. I anticipate Herbert being available in the 7th or 8th round and will gladly take him four or five rounds later than someone else takes Murray or Josh Allen.
Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT)
For the second year in a row, Diontae Johnson is on this list. That seems unfathomable because one of two things should’ve happened: either I was wrong, and I have no reason to be completely sold on him again, or I was correct, and his ADP should essentially render him ineligible. Instead, Johnson hit in 2020 and is somehow still trending toward being a bargain in 2021.
There’s no reliable ADP aggregate this early in the process, but people post screenshots of drafts on Twitter, and from what I gather, Johnson can be had for a fourth or fifth-round pick. That’s absurd. Johnson averaged 14.9 ppg last season, good for an overall WR21 finish. He did that despite leaving two games early due to injury. Johnson played just 9.1% and 24.3% of the snaps in those two games due to getting hurt. If we remove those two games, Johnson averaged 16.9 ppg, which includes his anomalous Week 8 against the Ravens, where he scored just 1.6 points. 16.9 ppg would have made him a back-end WR1.
Johnson is one of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL despite struggling mightily with drops last season. The good news is we don’t care about drops in fantasy (as long as they don’t result in him getting benched again). Given Johnson’s lack of issue with drops historically, it’s not a concern for me at all. The Steelers’ offense was noticeably better with him on the field. Even with JuJu Smith-Schuster returning, Johnson is undeniably the WR1 on this offense. Ben Roethlisberger sure looked done last season, but it’s possible that he could be better another year removed from his elbow surgery. Regardless, he was good enough to support three fantasy viable receivers in 2020, and he can do it again.
Johnson is an absolute smash pick in the third round. Anything later is just plain thievery.
CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL)
Dak Prescott‘s broken ankle is solely responsible for making CeeDee Lamb a screaming value this season. Lamb averaged 13.2 ppg last season, finishing as the overall WR35. We just discussed how Diontae Johnson would’ve been a back-end WR1 at 16.9 ppg. Well, in Lamb’s five games with Prescott, he averaged 17.12 ppg (compared to 11.65 with the dynamic trio of Ben DiNucci, Garrett Gilbert, and Andy Dalton). Granted, it’s a small sample size, but if Lamb was doing that out of the gate as a rookie, imagine what he can do with a full season and offseason to prepare?
Amari Cooper is still the WR1 in Dallas, but Prescott can easily support three, if not four, fantasy viable pass catchers. Cooper and Lamb can both be fantasy WR1s. The Cowboys will likely be a pass-heavy offense, whether by choice or by force (read: the defense being terrible). Prescott was on pace to shatter the single-season passing yards record before his injury last season. It would be a bit bold to project Prescott to throw as much as he was, but he should push 600 pass attempts. Lamb’s target floor feels like 130. A full season with Prescott will result in Lamb’s 79.8% catchable target rate being vastly improved. Lamb ran the second-most routes out of the slot last season, allowing him to feast on lesser defenders with no hope of stopping him. Lamb feels very much like the Justin Jefferson to Cooper’s Adam Thielen this season.
Tee Higgins (WR – CIN)
I’m not sure when it happened, but I am obsessed with Tee Higgins. I was never huge on him as a prospect. I didn’t think he was bad or anything – just a nice receiver that could be a big body outside in the right environment. About midway through his rookie season, I was all in. Higgins is the Bengals’ A.J. Green replacement. Obviously, Higgins has no hope of being as elite as Green was in his prime, but they are built similar (Higgins 6’4, 216 lbs, Green 6’4, 211 lbs) with the same hand size. Higgins is certainly capable of playing that role at a high level. If he can be 75% of Green, he should have a fantastic career. Green is finished, but don’t let that damper your memory of how amazing he was. Green belongs in the Hall of Fame.
What I love about Higgins is how under the radar good his rookie season was. He only finished as the overall WR36, so there’s not this massive hype surrounding him, but it’s important to put some context around that. Higgins was not part of the offense Week 1, so he played but wasn’t targeted, and Higgins scored zero points in Week 17. In his other 14 games, he was incredibly reliable, hitting double-digit fantasy points in 11 of them, including six WR2 or better finishes.
Not only was Higgins impressive as a rookie, but he was also victimized by losing his quarterback midway through the season. Similar to Lamb, and unsurprisingly, Higgins was better while his starting quarterback was on the field. He averaged 14.74 ppg with Joe Burrow compared to just 10.65 ppg with Brandon Allen and Ryan Finley. 14.74 ppg would’ve put him as a mid to low WR2. He is currently priced at about a mid WR3. That, my friends, is what we call value.
Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS) and Curtis Samuel (WR – WAS)
I probably should’ve included Antonio Gibson here as well. I just love everything about what the Football Team is doing. They won the NFC East last year despite horrific quarterback play. Signing Ryan Fitzpatrick to be their bridge to a long-term option was brilliant. This team is not winning any Super Bowls with Fitzpatrick, but they are going to be a lot of fun to watch.
The Football Team has a near-perfect setup for fantasy this season. Targets will be heavily consolidated between their top two receivers, Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel, and their tight end, Logan Thomas.
McLaurin has proven over his first two seasons that he’s good at football. The only thing separating McLaurin’s fantasy output from matching his talent was his quarterback play. McLaurin led the league in contested catch rate as a rookie in 2019, and although that number dropped precipitously in his second season, he was severely hindered by his quarterbacks. McLaurin still led all wide receivers in snap share at 98.1% and was fourth in air yard share. The primary issue was his 75th ranked catchable target rate.
That all changes with just a sprinkle of Fitzmagic, who is a quarterback that always knows where his bread is buttered. Fitzpatrick is not going to mess around with Isaiah Wright or players with the last name Sims. He is going to funnel targets to McLaurin and Samuel.
Here is what Fitzpatrick can do for his top two receivers (credit to FantasyPoints.com’s Scott Barrett for the chart):
While McLaurin is the clear alpha WR1, don’t sleep on Samuel, who averaged just 1.0 ppg fewer than McLaurin last season. Samuel also dealt with subpar quarterback play from Teddy Bridgewater. Samuel is a severely underrated talent. He is not just a gadget guy – he has the tools to be a complete receiver and, for the first time in his career, is an unquestioned starter. Samuel will be the WR2 opposite his former Ohio State teammate, McLaurin. Samuel is in his fifth season yet is somehow just 25 years old. Last season, McLaurin posted a 25.5% target share. Logan Thomas posted a 19.2% target share. I expect Thomas’ share to dip slightly, but we can safely assume J.D. McKissic‘s 19.2% target share will drop significantly. After McLaurin, Thomas, and the running backs, we can project roughly 35-40% of the remaining targets available. There is a very real chance Samuel can command somewhere in the range of a 20-23% target share. Even if Fitzpatrick only attempts 520 passes, that still puts Samuel on pace for a career-high in targets in the 110-120 range. I am not buying this coach-centric analysis that because Ron Rivera didn’t know how to use Samuel in Carolina, he will push him aside in Washington. Rivera saw what Samuel did last season and certainly played a role in bringing him to Washington.
Samuel is a WR3 with WR2 upside that will likely be priced as a WR4. McLaurin will come with a hefty price tag, but while his wide receiver ranking may be appropriate, anything after round two feels like a tremendous bargain.
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Jason Katz is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive or follow him @jasonkatz13.
