The PGA Tour heads to the Bay Hill Golf Club this week for the second leg of the Florida swing. The Arnold Palmer Invitational is a prestigious invitation-only event. After last week’s World Golf Championship event and alternate field event down in Puerto Rico, it will be interesting to see so many golfers with strong recent form.

FanDuel has eight golfers priced at or above $11,000 this week. DFS players have a salary cap of $60,000 to select six golfers for an average roster spot of $10,000. Rory McIlroy ($12,300) is the only golfer in the 12K range. Viktor Hovland and Bryson DeChambeau are next at $11,900 and $11,800, respectively. Patrick Reed ($11,600) and Tyrrell Hatton ($11,500) round out FanDuel’s top-five highest-priced golfers.

Work at having a solid process week in and week out instead of getting bogged down by recency bias or the ups-and-downs of the weekly golf grind. The best golfers will perform at a high level throughout the season. However, from week-to-week, a variance can occur. Any professional golfer is capable of winning. Likewise, even great players can miss the cut. For example, two weeks ago, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Abraham Ancer, and Bryson DeChambeau all missed the cut at the Genesis.

Use all the information available to you to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Whether you win or lose, golf is one of the most entertaining fantasy sports to follow because you get four days of action. Good luck and, most importantly, have fun!

Find out which stats matter the most for PGA DFS

Tournament Notes

• The Arnold Palmer Invitational has been played at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge since 1979. The course was owned by Arnold Palmer and is located near Orlando, Florida. Bay Hill is a par 72 course measuring 7,454 yards.
• This tournament is one of the few (WGCs, majors, The Memorial, and Genesis) in which the winner receives a three-year PGA exemption. Additionally, as one of the few tournaments with “invitational” status, there are only 120 players scheduled to tee it up this week. The top-65 golfers (and ties) after Thursday will make the cut and play the weekend.
• Previous API winners scheduled to tee it up this week include Tyrrell Hatton (2020), Francesco Molinari (2019), Rory McIlroy (2018), Marc Leishman (2017), Jason Day (2016), Matt Every (2015 & 2014), Martin Laird (2011), Tim Herron (1999), Paul Goydos (1996), and Robert Gamez (1990).
• Tyrrell Hatton defeated Marc Leishman by one stroke last year despite becoming the first golfer since 2006 to win a tournament shooting over par on both Saturday and Sunday.
• Before last year’s 4-under par winning score for Tyrrell Hatton, the average winning score in the previous five years had been 15.4 under par (-12, -18, -11, -17, and -19).
• Adam Scott is one of three players sharing the course record of 62 when he shot it in the first round of the 2014 event. Andy Bean and Greg Norman have also shot 62s.
• The Bermuda greens are right around the tour average in size at 7,200 square feet, and they tend to play fast and firm.
• The fairways are made up of Bermuda and average out to about 34 yards in width. This is slightly wider than average, but the rough tends to be penal.
• Bay Hill has more than 80 bunkers (35 are in the fairway) and nine holes with water coming into play (including the final three holes).
• Bay Hill consists of four Par 3s (averaging 216 yards), 10 Par 4s (five of which average more than 450 yards), and four Par 5s (averaging 550 yards).
• The average approach shot on the Par 4s is 170 yards.
• In typical years, a little more than 40% of fantasy scoring will come from the four Par 5s.
• International players have won each of the past five years at Bay Hill. All of the top-five finishers in 2019 and the top-three finishers last year were made up of non-Americans.
• Since this is an invitational and only 120 golfers are playing, a higher percentage of the field (at least 54%) will make the cut. This leads to more “stars-and-scrubs” type lineups.

Course Fit & Key Statistics

Overall Statistics
My customized overall stat model measures all key stats (driving, approach, short game, putting, etc…) from both a short-and-long-form standpoint. From a stats perspective, this week’s best golfers (in ranked order) are Viktor Hovland, Cameron Davis, Bryson DeChambeau, Tyrrell Hatton, Paul Casey, Will Zalatoris, Cameron Tringale, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Max Homa, and Sam Burns.

Approach Game
Historically speaking, the approach game is more important than any other statistic here at Bay Hill. In looking at top-five finishers here, SG: Approach was 2x more important than SG: OTT and 2.5x more important than SG: ARG. The 10 golfers with the best approach game (in ranked order according to my custom stat model) are Tyrrell Hatton, Viktor Hovland, Keegan Bradley, Will Zalatoris, Matthew NeSmith, Chez Reavie, Paul Casey, Harold Varner, Kyle Stanley, and Cameron Davis.

Recent Form
The golfers that rate out the best in my customized recent form model (in ranked order) are Viktor Hovland, Max Homa, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Sam Burns, Patrick Reed, Jordan Spieth, Andrew Putnam, Will Zalatoris, Cameron Tringale, and Francesco Molinari. Among the golfers in this week’s field, Viktor Hovland has the longest streak of made cuts on the PGA Tour with 21. Zach Johnson is next with 11 straight PGA cuts. Matt Jones and Patton Kizzire are the only other golfers with double-digit streaks. Both have made 10 straight PGA cuts. Will Zalatoris and his eight-straight PGA cuts round out the top-five streaks.

Course History
I emphasize baseline talent and recent form, but there is a lot to be said for golfers that enjoy playing at certain courses. Some courses just line up better for some golfers. Comfortability with the way a golf course plays can give a golfer confidence going into the week. The ten golfers that rate out the best in my course history model include Rory McIlroy, Marc Leishman, Francesco Molinari, Bryson DeChambeau, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Sungjae Im, Luke List, Rickie Fowler, Tyrrell Hatton, and Keith Mitchell.

Official World Golf Ranking
All the statistics and course history are good to know, but sports (in particular, DFS golf) oftentimes comes down to betting on talent and playing the best overall players. Sure, salary is involved, but fitting as many of the world’s best golfers in your lineups increases your chances for success. According to the OWGR, the best ten golfers in this field (in ranked order) are Tyrrell Hatton (No. 6), Rory McIlroy (No. 8), Patrick Reed (No. 9), Bryson DeChambeau (No. 11), Viktor Hovland (No. 13), Matthew Fitzpatrick (No. 16), Sungjae Im (No. 17), Paul Casey (No. 18), Harris English (No. 19), and Tommy Fleetwood (No. 21).

Favorite $11,000+ Plays

There are no bad 11K golfers this week. All of them either come in with good form or have great course history. I will most likely try to get a piece of all of them in my MME builds. I may go heavier on a certain golfer if he projects for significantly lower ownership than the rest. However, in my single-entry contests, I will stick primarily to Hatton and Fitzpatrick.

Tyrrell Hatton ($11,500)
He is the world’s sixth-ranked golfer, but none of the guys ahead of him are in this field. He is the highest-ranked golfer in the world at this event but is only the fifth most expensive. In other words, he is underpriced. Yes, he only finished T22 last week but lost nearly seven strokes around the green. That is highly unusual, and I don’t expect to see anywhere close to that this week for the defending champion. Hatton has seven top-10 finishes in his last 13 events, including two wins.

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($11,100)
The conventional wisdom is that the shorter-hitting Fitzpatrick can’t compete at longer courses, but he finished T9 here last year and was runner-up the year before. He was also T13 in 2017. In his last six worldwide events, he has six top-20 finishes, including a T5 at the Genesis and a win at the DP World Tour Championship. Last week he was T11 at the WGC-Workday.

Favorite $10,000 Plays

Francesco Molinari ($10,300)
Great form, great course history, and a great price make Molinari one of my favorites this week. He has three top-10 finishes in his last four events. As for the API, he has three top 10 finishes in his last four starts, including a win in 2019.

Will Zalatoris ($10,000)
Willy Z has tremendous talent and flirts with top-10 finishes seemingly every week regardless of the course or field strength. Since the start of 2020, he has made 25/26 professional cuts, including eight in a row on the PGA Tour. More than half (14) of his professional starts since 2020 have resulted in top-10 finishes. Last week he lost nearly five strokes putting yet still finished T22 at the WGC-Workday. At the average FanDuel price, he is an easy play for me this week.

Other 10K golfers I may consider playing are Jordan Spieth ($10,800), Louis Oosthuizen ($10,600), Jason Day ($10,500), Billy Horschel ($10,400), and Marc Leishman ($10,100).

Favorite $9,000 Plays

Sam Burns ($9,900)
“Bermuda Burns” ranks sixth in both fantasy scoring and total strokes gained in the last 24 rounds played. He is a great putter who also has a strong tee-to-green game. In other words, he has a lot of game. However, he tends to be a little streaky. I believe that he will get a win sometime this season, so he is in play for me this week. He is trending up with seven made cuts in his last eight events, including four in a row. He has also been finding himself on the Sunday leaderboard in his last few events. He had a T3 at the Genesis two weeks ago. He has made the cut here in each of the last three years.

Cameron Tringale ($9,500)
He has made the cut in nine of his last 10 starts, including seven in a row. Four of his last seven made cuts have resulted in top-20 finishes, including a T3 at the RSM and a T7 at Pebble Beach. In the last 24 rounds, he ranks third in total strokes gained. Though he is known mostly for his ball-striking abilities, he has a very good all-around game.

Matt Jones ($9,000)
His T8 at the Genesis two weeks ago gave him his 10th consecutive made cut. It was also his third top-11 finish during that streak. He is a very good putter (especially on Bermuda) who is improving his iron game. He is also extremely good in the wind and on more difficult courses, which could be to his advantage this week. He ranks ninth in this field in the last 24 rounds in total strokes gained.

Other 9K golfers I will be considering are Max Homa ($9,900), Jason Kokrak ($9,800), Harris English ($9,800), Cameron Davis ($9,600), Christian Bezuidenhout ($9,400), Lanto Griffin ($9,300), Adam Hadwin ($9,200), Corey Conners ($9,100), and Luke List ($9,000)

Favorite $8,000 Plays

Chris Kirk ($8,700)
He hasn’t played for a couple of weeks, but he finished T16 at Pebble Beach when we last saw him. Before that, he also finished T16 at the American Express and runner-up at the Sony. Overall, he has made the cut in nine of his last 11 starts. He also has solid course history here with three top-15 finishes in his last four starts. He is not elite in any one area but has a great all-around game. He ranks 12th in this field over the last 24 rounds in fantasy scoring, and 13th in total strokes gained.

Matthew NeSmith ($8,500)
In the last 24 rounds played, nobody has been better on approach than NeSmith. He is dialed in with his irons, which sets him up nicely this week. He comes into this week riding a streak of three straight top-20 finishes. Overall, he has six top-20 finishes in his last 10 starts. He is a great value considering his odds to earn another top-20 finish.

Patton Kizzire ($8,100)
Kizzire has an elite short game, both on and around the greens. He is a great putter, especially on Bermuda grass. He also has a streak of 10-straight made cuts. During this streak, he has three top-11 finishes, including a T7 at the Sony. In the last 24 rounds played, he is 16th in this field in total strokes gained and 17th in fantasy scoring.

Other 8K golfers I will be considering are Wyndham Clark ($8,900), Byeong Hun An ($8,900), Robert Macintyre ($8,800), Alex Noren ($8,700), Henrik Norlander ($8,600), Andrew Putnam ($8,400), Keith Mitchell ($8,300), Harold Varner ($8,100), and Kyle Stanley ($8,000).

Favorite $7,000 Plays

Doug Ghim ($7,900)
He has made the cut in seven of his last nine events. He finished as high as T5 at the American Express back in January. In those seven made cuts, he has five top-25 finishes. Getting a made cut out of a 7K golfer returns good value for us, but a top-25 finish is even better. He ranks 19th in fantasy scoring and 28th in total strokes gained in this field for the last 24 rounds.

Branden Grace ($7,800)
He is not a free square like we’ve seen with some previous pricing mistakes by FanDuel, but he is the best odds-adjusted value this week. He has the 31st best Vegas odds but is only the 78th most expensive golfer on FanDuel. By the way, his price on DK is $7,500 coming off a win last week at the Puerto Rico Open. He has made the cut in six of his last eight PGA starts finishing at least 40th in all of them. Two weeks ago, he finished T20 at the Genesis.

Other 7K golfers I might consider in my MME builds include Tom Hoge ($7,900), K.H. Lee ($7,800), Cameron Percy ($7,700), Steve Stricker ($7,700), Doc Redman ($7,700), Sung Kang ($7,600), Will Gordon ($7,500), Richy Werenski ($7,400), and Anirban Lahiri ($7,000).

Check out the FREE betting guide for the Arnold Palmer Invitational at BettingPros

Whether you’re new to daily fantasy golf or a seasoned professional, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Golf Glossary. You can get started with The Stats That Matter Most or head to a more advanced strategy — like How To Use Vegas Odds To Generate Your Lineup  — to learn more.

Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.