This is one of the slowest slates of the season. We have just four games in total, with three games making up the night slate. It certainly is an interesting one, though, with numerous new-look teams across the board. In fact, four of the six teams on this slate made big moves at the trade deadline, while the Lakers have a new-look roster due to injuries. Those variables will be major themes in this article, so let’s go ahead and get into it!
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Most Value Per Dollar
The betting landscape on this slate is captivating. We have a struggling Toronto Raptors team playing host to the Portland Trail Blazers, with Portland being a small road favorite. The Denver-Atlanta game should feature the Nuggets as a medium-sized favorite, but the Hawks are one of the hottest teams in basketball right now. We also anticipate Los Angeles being favored against this new-look Orlando team, but the Lakers honestly shouldn’t be favored over anyone the way they’re playing right now. In terms of totals, the LAL-ORL one will surely be the lowest while the other two should hover around the 225-range.
If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.
Below is a list of the top players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.
Khem Birch (ORL) $5,800
Birch has filled-in for Nikola Vucevic in the past, and it appears he’s going to be one of the focal points of the offense with Vooch being shipped off to Chicago. In the first game without him, Birch played 37 minutes and collected a career-best 53 fantasy points. While we’re unlikely to see that again, we can’t fade a sub-$5K player in a role like this!
Kyle Lowry (TOR) $6,600
Now that Lowry doesn’t have this trade stuff hanging over his head, look for him and the Raptors to play more freely. While he did struggle a bit in his last two games, we’re still talking about a dude who’s averaging 37 fantasy points per game. That’s a great total from a $6,600 player, and we haven’t even discussed this matchup. Portland currently ranks 29th in defensive efficiency while surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing point guards.
Michael Carter-Williams (ORL) $5,300
Someone needs to run things in Orlando, and it looks like it will be MCW. It was one thing when he got the starting job for Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony, but now that Vucevic, Aaron Gordon, and Evan Fournier are out of the picture, too, Carter-Williams should feast. He’s been solid with all of them anyway, averaging 24 FanDuel points per game. Look for that to be his floor from now on, flirting with the impressive averages we saw in his Philly days.
Robert Covington (POR) $6,400
RoCo has been a really dependable player for over a month now, and it’s hard to understand why he remains so adorable. The defensive stud is averaging 33 FanDuel points per game across 36 minutes a night over his last 13 outings. That’s a stellar total from someone in this price range, especially when you see that he faces a Toronto team that surrenders the third-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards.
Montrezl Harrell (LAL) $7,200
With Anthony Davis and LeBron James out of the Lakers lineup, Harrell is their go-to guy. In fact, he leads the team with a 28 percent usage rate with those guys on the sidelined, providing 1.34 FD points per minute. That’s a heck of a total, and it’s led to him scoring at least 29 FD points in nine of his last 10 games while generating a 37-point average in that span. We certainly expect that to continue against a mangled Magic lineup too.
Chuma Okeke (ORL) $5,300
It’s unclear exactly who will receive minutes and usage in Orlando, but Okeke is as good of a bet as anyone. We say that because he had 22 points, six rebounds and four assists in the first game for this new-look roster, doing that damage in 37 minutes of play. He’s easily one of the most talented youngsters on this roster, and they’re going to play him big minutes to see what this first-round pick can do. Los Angeles’ defense isn’t as scary as you may think, posting one of the worst defensive ratings since James and Davis’ injures.
Dennis Schroder (LAL) $7,700:
Schroder has been handling the ball a ton with James out of the lineup, generating a 27 percent usage rate with him off the floor. That huge bump to his role has led to the most productive stretch of his season, scoring at least 26 FD points in seven-straight games while averaging 36 fantasy points per game across his last six outings. The Magic have been killed by point guards all year, too, owning a 28th OPRK against them this season.
Will Barton (DEN) $5,900
Barton has quietly turned his season around, and this price is not a good indication of how good he’s been. In fact, Will the Thrill has scored at least 24 FD points in 12 of his last 14 games, averaging 28 fantasy points per game in that span. That form is nice, but we love this matchup against a 22nd-ranked Atlanta defense.
Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Nikola Jokic (DEN) $11,300: Jokic will be impossible to avoid on this slate. While he’ll be in every lineup, you need to swallow the chalk. We say that because there’s so much other value out there that you need to get the guaranteed 50-60 FanDuel points from the Joker. The big man leads the NBA with 58 FD points per game and has an even higher total over his last 12 outings. We certainly don’t expect a 22nd-ranked Hawks defense to slow him down, either.
- Trae Young (ATL) $8,700: Young is in a similar boat as Jokic. These guys will be in every lineup out there because of all the cheap options, and you need to take the free square. Trae has at least 43 FD points in three-straight games, which is right on par with his season average.
- Pascal Siakam (TOR) $8,500: Siakam is in the best stretch of his season right now, and it makes him impossible to avoid such in a tasty matchup. Let’s start by talking about that opposition, with Portland ranked 29th in defensive efficiency while surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards. That’s awful news against a guy who has 50 FD points in back-to-back games, scoring at least 40-plus in four of his last five. In his one game against the Blazers, Siakam picked up the only triple-double of his career if you needed any more incentive.
Notable Players to Fade
- De’Andre Hunter (ATL) $5,400: Hunter got his minute total up to 26 on Wednesday, but some renewed knee soreness makes him a hazardous pick. It’s not like he’s been productive in his return anyway, averaging fewer than 10 fantasy points per game.
- Chris Boucher (TOR) $5,300: The surge from Siakam has really killed Boucher, with the big man averaging 17 FD points per game across his last five outings. What’s equally as concerning is the fact that he’s playing 17 minutes a night in that span, making him impossible to trust.
- Jusuf Nurkic (POR) $5,200: Nurk might be in the value section in the coming weeks, but we need to wait for that minute total to get back to normal. He played just 18 minutes in his return on Friday, and it seems unlikely that he’ll play more than 20-25 minutes here.
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Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.
Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.