After a massive 10-game slate the night before, things quiet down a bit on Saturday with only five games on deck. Only four of those five will count towards Saturday’s main slate, so those looking to build some lineups will have to dig deep to find value. With that said, let’s dive right into my favorite values, studs, and fades for the evening’s DFS festivities.
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Most Value Per Dollar
Saturday’s slate only features four games, but that won’t stop the points from being put up. Three of the four games have an over-under currently set at least as high as 229.5, while the GS/MEM matchup has seen its over-under plummet with news that Stephen Curry is considered doubtful to suit up.
For a full list of odds and spreads, make sure to check out BettingPros.
Remember, it’s imperative to take some risks on a smaller slate such as this one. You won’t win any money by just being safe. While it is fine to build around the studs, don’t be afraid to sprinkle in some lower-salary options with high-upside. If they hit, there is a good chance you will win some money.
Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary.
FanDuel NBA DFS Plays of the Day (3/20)
Jrue Holiday (PG – MIL) $6,700
Holiday has seen 30+ minutes in each of his last three games as he continues to find his footing after a lengthy absence earlier in the season. Over that three-game stretch, he’s averaged over 34 FanDuel points per contest and now faces a Spurs squad who surrenders the third-most FanDuel points to opposing point guards this season.
Andrew Wiggins (SG – GS) $5,200
Wiggins sees an elite 28.7% usage rate without Steph Curry on the floor this season, as evidenced by his 40-point explosion on the Grizzlies Friday night. With Curry doubtful to suit up on Saturday, the Warriors will have to run their offense through Wiggins once more. Look for the 26-year old to hoist 20+ shots and flirt with 7-8X value with upside for more.
Keldon Johnson (SF – SAS) $4,800
Johnson exploded with a 23-point, 21-rebound performance in Friday’s win over the Cavaliers and is back at it again as the Spurs play on the second leg of a back-to-back set. The Bucks have been stingy against opposing small forwards, but Johnson is feeling it at the moment. He’s currently seeing a 21% usage rate without LeMarcus Aldridge on the floor.
Draymond Green (PF – GS) $6,600
Green has been out of this world from a fantasy perspective over his last few games. He’s posted at least 39.7 FanDuel points in three of his last four games and is averaging 10.2 rebounds and 10.2 assists over his last four games. If Steph Curry sits, the Warriors will lean heavily on him to facilitate the offense once again.
Dwight Howard (C – PHI) $5,000
Howard has seen 29 and 27 minutes respectively over his last two games and has logged a double-double in each of them. He’s now gifted a dream matchup against a Kings’ defense that is giving up the second-most FanDuel points to opposing centers this season. On top of that, this matchup boasts the highest over-under on the slate, so the 35-year old vet should have plenty of chances to produce value.
Jordan Poole (PG – GS) $4,600
Poole has averaged 20 points over his last six games and would be in line for an expanded role if Steph Curry were to sit once again. The 21-year old can be a bit scoring dependent, thus adding to his risk, but is fresh off a 25-point outing against the Grizzlies on Friday.
Bismack Biyombo (C – CHA) $3,600
Biyombo will be given a larger role on Saturday, with Cody Zeller officially ruled out. In 820 minutes with Zeller off the court this season, Biyombo is averaging 0.81 FanDuel points per minute.
Tyrese Maxey (SG – PHI) $3,500
There is certainly risk associated here, but this is the kind of player to target on small slates such as this one. Maxey should see some increased run with Seth Curry officially ruled out, and the Kings are giving up the most FanDuel points to opposing guards this season. The 20-year old rookie sees a 23% usage rate with Curry off the floor.
Desmond Bane (SG – MEM) $3,500
The rookie sharpshooter is knocking down 44% of his threes this season and faces a Warriors team that is middle of the pack when it comes to defending the perimeter. Bane is a risky pick due to his low floor, but he could be a lucrative play if he hits.
Harrison Barnes (SF – SAC) $5,900
Barnes sees heavy minutes for the Kings and has scored over 33 FanDuel points in his last two contests. As previously mentioned, this matchup has the highest over-under on the slate, so Barnes should have ample time to produce value.
Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day
Studs Worth Their Salary
Kawhi Leonard (SF – LAC) $9,300: The Clippers have dropped four of their last six games and have the perfect opportunity for a statement win against the Hornets. Leonard is averaging nearly 50 FanDuel points but has fallen a bit under his average salary on FanDuel. With star power limited in Saturday’s slate, I don’t mind building my team around The Claw.
De’Aaron Fox (PG – SAC) $9,200: Fox has hit at least 42.9 FanDuel points in each of his last six games and gets a terrific matchup against the Sixers, who are surrendering the seventh-most FanDuel points to opposing point guards this season. As mentioned above, this matchup has the highest over-under on the slate, and chasing studs in high-scoring games is never a bad idea.
Notable Players to Fade
Dejounte Murray (PG – SAS) $7,700: Murray is nearly $700 more expensive than his average price, and his workload appears poised to take a hit with DeMar DeRozan returning to the lineup. Additionally, the Bucks have been a tough matchup against opposing point guards this season, only allowing the seventh-fewest FanDuel points per game. I’d much rather pivot to Jrue Holiday ($6,700) or pay up for De’Aaron Fox ($9,200).
Gordon Hayward (SF – CHA) $7,200: Hayward hasn’t topped seven points in each of his last two games and now gets a daunting matchup against the Clippers, who are allowing the second-fewest FanDuel points to small forwards this season. I’d much rather pay up for Kawhi Leonard ($9,300) or pivot down to Harrison Barnes ($5,900).
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Alex Burns a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Alex, check out his archive and follow him @aburnshoops.