Billy Horschel (90/1) is officially back in the top-20 in the OWGR after taking down the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play in Austin, Texas. After grinding through seven matches from Wednesday to Sunday, Horschel finally lifted the trophy after edging out Scottie Scheffler for the championship. All it took was one single birdie in the final match for Horschel to win, as Scheffler did not have his best stuff either in the final grouping. In the other PGA event of the week, Joel Dahmen (50/1) won his first career title at the Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship.
The PGA Tour remains in the Lone Star state as TPC San Antonio (Oaks) will play host to the Valero Texas Open. Lodged in between a WGC and the Masters next week, we won’t be seeing the strongest of fields tee it up. The top-65 with ties in this 144 man-field will advance to the weekend for the $7.7 million purse and a chance of 500 FedEx Cup points.
With Dustin Johnson withdrawing from this event early in the week, the field takes a major hit. Tony Finau ($11,000), Jordan Spieth ($10,700), Scottie Scheffler ($10,400), and defending champion Corey Conners ($9,500) and Hideki Matsuyama ($10,100) round out the top-five. In 2019, Conners went from a Monday qualifier to champion of the event and punched his ticket into the Masters. This is the final opportunity for someone to win a Tour event and make their way to Augusta National for the most anticipated event of 2021.
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Previous Winners
- 2019: Corey Conners (-20)
- 2018: Andrew Landry (-17)
- 2017: Kevin Chappell (-12)
- 2016: Charley Hoffman (-12)
- 2015: Jimmy Walker (-11)
Course Preview
Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio will play as a Par 72 and measures at a respectable 7,435 yards. The name of the game at this track is to hit as many fairways as possible, as the rough is very penal, and there are many hazards in play. As per any course in Texas, the wind always becomes a factor, and it should play both firm and fast. The track features Bermuda greens that are undulating and multi-tiered. I will be targeting supreme ball-strikers that are very strong with their iron play.
Relevant Betting Stats
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking
- Greens In Regulation Percentage
- Putting on Bermuda greens
Recommended Plays
Jordan Spieth ($10,700)
It would be fitting for Spieth to return to the winner’s circle for the first time since 2017 in his home state of Texas. The 27-year-old is playing some excellent golf with finishes of T3 (Pebble Beach), T4 (Arnold Palmer), and T9 (WGC-Matchplay) in his last five appearances. He is hungry for a win, and I really fancy his chances in a weaker field and at a course where he had great success at. Spieth was second here in 2015 and tenth in 2014. In my rolling stats model, Spieth ranks top five in tee-to-green, approach, and GIR.
Abraham Ancer ($9,700)
Ancer has been putting together a tremendous 2021 campaign. In 13 events, the Mexican already has eight top-25 finishes. His ball-striking and approach play has been superb. However, his putting hasn’t been up to par. Ancer ranks 111th in strokes gained: putting this year, this is uncharacteristic for a guy who ranked 41st on Tour in this department in 2020. The 30-year-old is the second most accurate driver on Tour this season, and this will come in handy on these tight fairways. We saw the poor putting Corey Conners breakthrough for his first win at this event last year. Could it be Ancer this time around?
Charley Hoffman ($9,200)
Hoffman has really heated up over his last five events, with high finishes of T7 (Pebble Beach), T10 (Arnold Palmer Invitational), and T17 (Players Championship). According to DataGolf, Hoffman has the second-best course history at this event. He is a prior winner (2016) and was runner-up to Corey Conners last year. His recent form and course history are simply too good to turn down here.
Brendan Steele ($9,100)
Another great price here for one of the game’s best ball-strikers who has had great success at this event. Steele won here a decade ago (2011) and since has had high finishes of T4 and T8. The recent form has been tremendous, with a T3 at the Honda Classic and a T18 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March.
Matt Kuchar ($9,000)
The nine-time PGA Tour winner seems to have found some form after an impressive week at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. Kuchar finished third and had some big wins over Jordan Spieth, Brian Harman, and Victor Perez. The 42-year-old has fared well at this event, with a T7 in 2019 and two other top-25s. He is worth the flier at a solid price.
Chris Kirk ($8,600)
Kirk has rediscovered his form and is trending towards a win over the last few months. Kirk has three top-25 finishes in his last four events, including an eighth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He has had success in Texas before, finishing T8 at this event in both 2015 and 2018.
Doug Ghim ($7,300)
The University of Texas graduate should be mighty comfortable in the confines of TPC San Antonio. Ghim was a former NCAA player of the year with the Longhorns and played some excellent golf in his third PGA Tour season. In 14 events this year, Ghim already has six top-25 finishes. He ranks 20th in strokes gained: approach and 28th in strokes gained: tee-to-green. This price is a steal.
Kevin Chappell ($6,900)
It’s not surprising to see Chappell having a win (2017) and a T2 (2011) at this event. He is one of the game’s best ball strikers who keeps his ball in the fairway and gives himself plenty of birdie looks. He is an above-average putter on fast Bermuda greens. The form is there as well, as he is coming off a solid T13 finish at the Honda Classic that included rounds of 65 and 66.
Check out the FREE betting guide for the Valero Texas Open at BettingPros
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Nic Turner is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nic, check out his archive and follow him @sportzbandit.
