With the All-Star break right around the corner, we could be in for some funky slates. This is the perfect time to rest players, and there’s going to be a lot of guys checked out. That means we could be in for some blowouts, which has been way too common all season long. There’s a lot to discuss, though, so let’s get into it!
UPDATE: The Toronto-Detroit game has been postponed. Avoid all players in this game!
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Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings
Most Value Per Dollar
I actually didn’t realize this until I input all the player’s positions, but it’s clear where the weaknesses and strengths lay on this slate. The center and point guard positions are stacked with value plays, while the forward positions are lacking. That’s really no surprise in today’s NBA with point guards and centers dominating fantasy usage, but it was strange to see nonetheless.
If you’d like to see information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.
Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.
Ja Morant (MEM) $7,000
Ja just had one of his worst games of the season on Monday, but it was no fault of his own. On the contrary, it was Houston’s fault for not showing up in that 49-point beatdown. That limited Morant to just 23 DraftKings points across 26 minutes of action. A dud like that lowered his price tag a bit too much, and he’s still averaging over 35 fantasy points per game. The matchup is the main reason we like him, though, with Washington ranked 27th in defensive efficiency while playing at the fastest pace in the NBA.
Dennis Schroder (LAL) $5,700
With Anthony Davis out through the All-Star break, Schroder should continue to play a big role for the Lakers. With him off the floor, Schroder has a 24 percent usage rate, putting up his best numbers of the year. He’s actually scored at least 25 DK points in five-straight games without AD, averaging 35 fantasy points per game in that span.
LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS) $5,800
Aldridge looked like a shell of himself in the first month of the season, but he’s looked good since getting an injection in his back. In fact, the big man has at least 25 DK points in both games since his return, doing that damage in just 24 minutes a night. We believe that minute total will rise as he gets his legs underneath him, and he’s going to be needed with Keldon Johnson, Rudy Gay, and Derrick White all sidelined. We don’t mind that he plays the slowest-paced team in the NBA either, catering to his slow pace himself.
Kyle Lowry (TOR) $7,900
Now that Pascal Siakam is out through the break, this is Lowry’s offense. That’s really evident when you see the way he’s stuffing the stat sheet right now, averaging 22 points, 9.0 rebounds, 9.0 assists, and 1.5 steals since his return from injury. We happen to love the matchup with Detroit, too, with the Pistons ranked 19th in total defense.
Lowry is no longer an option with the postponement
Goran Dragic (MIA) $5,600
Dragic has always been an underrated asset for fantasy purposes, and it makes him about $1,000 too cheap on this slate. Since returning from an ankle issue, Dragic is averaging over 26 DK points per game, playing at least 30 minutes in back-to-back outings. That’s not far off of the stud we saw in the bubble, and if he returns to that player, he’s about $2,000 too cheap. Not to mention, Atlanta surrenders the most fantasy points in the NBA to opposing point guards this season.
Monte Morris (DEN) $4,600
Denver has been playing shorthanded for weeks, and it’s forced Morris into the biggest usage of his career. Joining the starting lineup would be one thing, but he’s also played at least 28 minutes in five-straight fixtures. That’s all you can ask for from a player sitting below $5K, especially when you see his 27-point average over his last four outings. Milwaukee and Denver both ranking Top-5 in pace only adds to his value, with fantasy points expected to fly around at ease.
Jonas Valanciunas (MEM) $7,200
JV also had his worst game of the year on Sunday, thanks to that Houston blowout. He also dealt with foul trouble in that game, but he was fantastic before that. In fact, JV had at least 28 fantasy points in 11 of his previous 12 games, averaging over 36 DK points per game in that span. That means this price is a bit too cheap, and we obviously love that he faces a fast-paced Washington team that surrenders the most fantasy points in the league to opposing centers.
Nerlens Noel (NYK) $5,200
Noel hasn’t had any monster games, but he’s found himself in a monster role. Since Mitchell Robinson fractured his hand, Noel is playing 31 minutes a game as a starter. He’s also providing 27 DK points per game, which is really all you can ask for from someone below $6K. Taj Gibson’s injury has forced Noel to play at least 40 minutes in B2B games, and if he does that here, he needs to be in every lineup out there.
Dennis Smith (DET) $5,100
It’s been tricky figuring out this Saben Lee-Dennis Smith thing, but it appears DSJ has taken over that role. He’s now played at least 26 minutes in three-straight outings, starting in all of those. That looks even better when you see his 30-point floor in that span, and it’s really no surprise to see a former top-pick play so well when given an opportunity.
Smith is no longer an option with the postponement
Derrick Rose (NYK) $5,900
With Elfrid Payton injured, Rose has found himself as the starting point guard in New York. This is what we’ve been hoping for, with D-Rose averaging 34.3 DK points per game across 31 minutes a night over his last four fixtures. That’s clearly a ridiculous total, and as long as Payton remains out, Rose should continue to play huge minutes and handle the ball on every play. We also don’t mind that San Antonio is missing a defensive stud like Derrick White, owning a 29th OPRK against opposing point guards.
Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) $11,000: This game is full of fantasy goodness, and if you can squeeze these two in your lineup, you’re guaranteed about 120 DK points. Giannis has actually been better than Jokic recently, scoring at least 61 fantasy points in nine of his last 10 games while averaging 66 DK points per game. That’s certainly not concerning against a 20th-ranked Denver defense.
- Nikola Jokic (DEN) $10,800: Jokic is easily one of the favorites for MVP, averaging 26.7 points, 10.9 rebounds, 8.5 assists, and 1.7 steals per game for the year. That equates to almost 60 DraftKings points per game, with the big man scoring at least 42 fantasy points in 32 of his 33 games. That absurd floor looks even better when you consider that Milwaukee ranks fourth in pace, leading to more fantasy production. In their one meeting earlier this season, Joker had a measly 62 fantasy points.
- LeBron James (LAL) $10,700: With AD out of the lineup, LBJ is going beast mode in LA. He’s actually got a 35 percent usage rate with him off the floor, averaging over 50 DK points per game in games that Davis has sat out. He killed Phoenix last year, too, falling just two rebounds shy of a triple-double average in his three matchups against them.
- Bradley Beal (WAS) $9,700: It’s pretty easy to recommend the top-scorer in the NBA on every slate, but his fantasy numbers are equally as impressive. Amazingly, he’s scored at least 38 DK points in all but one game this season, scoring at least 46 fantasy points in each of his last nine games. This is also expected to be one of the highest-scoring games of the night, and that should force Beal into yet another gem.
Notable Players to Fade
- Jrue Holiday (MIL) $7,200: It appears that the Bucks are going to baby Holiday back into his starting role. In his first game off the COVID list, Jrue played just 18 minutes off of the bench. It seems unlikely he’ll reach 25 here, which makes him impossible to trust at this price.
- Lou Williams (LAC) $5,600: Lou was awesome two weeks ago in Paul George and Kawhi Leonard’s absence, but he’s not the same when they’re both suiting up. He’s averaging just 19.3 DK points over his last four outings, which is right on par with his 17-point average over the first 20 games of the year.
- Moritz Wagner (WAS) $3,400: Good luck guessing when Wagner is a good bet for fantasy. He’s had some gems recently, but he’s also failed to crack 15 minutes in five of his last seven games. Gambling on him is an unnecessary risk, despite the price.
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.