After a couple of light slates on Saturday and Sunday, we’re back to eight games here. This will be a frustrating one, though, because we have a ton of injury news and a lot of important players playing the second half of a back-to-back set. Those teams include Boston, Chicago, Cleveland, Houston, Indiana, Oklahoma City, and Toronto. That could cause chaos on this slate, but we’ll do our best to analyze who will play and try to build value off of that. With that in mind, let’s get into it!
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Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings
Most Value Per Dollar
We usually talk about how center is always underpriced, and here we are again. There are so many great centers being mispriced, and it honestly makes no sense why DraftKings is doing this. That will lead to half of these recommendations being at that position, but we’ll stay away from them in the studs section to give you guys a more well-rounded lineup. We don’t have much to say in terms of betting because things are inevitably going to change with so much news out there.
If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.
Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.
Ivica Zubac (LAC) $5,100
Serge Ibaka has already been ruled out for this game, and that makes Zubac one of the best plays on the board. Zoo has actually started the last three games that Ibaka has missed, playing at least 35 minutes in two of them and dropping at least 30 fantasy points in both of those. The one time he didn’t was a massive blowout, and one has to believe he would have done the same if that stayed close. Those minutes are going to be necessary here, too, with someone needing to match up with Clint Capela’s size.
Larry Nance Jr. (CLE) $6,100
Nance has been better than this price tag would indicate. He averaged 35 DraftKings points per game before his injury and has a 34-point average over his last three outings. That’s all you can ask for from a $6K player, and he should continue to provide good value with Kevin Love and Andre Drummond both out of the picture. Sacramento is the best matchup in fantasy right now, too, and we’ll discuss that more later.
Al Horford (OKC) $6,100
Horford sat out Sunday in the frontend of a back-to-back, and that makes us believe he’ll be ready to suit up here. People have been frustrated with his resting days, but Big Al is still a stud when he plays. In fact, he’s scored at least 29 DK points in 14 of his 19 games since coming back from maternity leave, averaging 34.4 fantasy points per game in that span. We love that against a 26th-ranked T’Wolves defense.
Pascal Siakam (TOR) $7,500
Siakam was on a heater before he hit the COVID list, and he hasn’t cooled off at all. Over his last 17 games played, Sia is averaging 42 fantasy points per game. That makes it hard to believe he’s only $7,500, especially with Pascal dropping a 50-spot against Utah over the weekend. That’s one of the best defenses in the NBA, and he should have no problem duplicating that against a Houston club in the midst of a disastrous 20-game losing streak.
Jarrett Allen (CLE) $7,600
We’ve been waiting for Allen to be a starting center for years, and now our wish has come true! Since gaining this role in the middle of February, Allen is averaging 36 DraftKings points a game across 31 minutes a night. That’s an amazing per-minute rate, and it’s terrible news for a Sacramento team that owns the worst defensive rating in the NBA.
Keldon Johnson (SAS) $5,900
Don’t look now, but Keldon is starting to get hot again. Before hitting the COVID list, KJ averaged 29 DK points per game in his first 27 outings. He was terrible in his first two weeks back but has been rolling the last week. Over his last three games, Johnson is posting a 40-point average, stepping up his rebounding in LaMarcus Aldridge‘s absence. We also love that Charlotte surrenders the most fantasy points in the NBA to opposing small forwards.
Myles Turner (IND) $5,800
Turner is a regular in these articles, and it’s honestly insulting that he remains below $6K. We’re talking about a dude with a 32-point average for the season, scoring at least 30 fantasy points in four of his last five games. The matchup with Milwaukee looks tough, but we love that they rank fourth in pace and 19th in points allowed.
Jrue Holiday (MIL) $6,800
It sounds like Giannis Antetokounmpo will sit here, and that should force Holiday into a huge role. With him off the floor this season, Jrue has a 28 percent usage rate while averaging 1.3 DK points per minute. That makes it hard to believe Holiday remains so cheap, and he’s one of the easiest bets out there to reach 5X value (34 fantasy points).
Richaun Holmes (SAC) $7,200
If Turner is a regular in these articles, Holmes is straight-up living on this screen. He’s been an absolute monster since the All-Star break, scoring at least 30 fantasy points in nine of his last 10 games. Holmes is also generating a 39-point average in that span as well, making him a great bet against a subpar Cleveland defense.
Tomas Satoransky (CHI) $4,400
Why does DraftKings continue to keep Sato’s price so low? He’s been starting at point guard for a week now, playing at least 26 minutes in all five of his starts. It’s not like its empty production either, falling just shy of a 30-point average in that span. We know this matchup with Utah is tough, but a $4,400 player flirting with a 30-point average is nearly impossible to fade.
Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day
Studs Worth Their Salary
- De’Aaron Fox (SAC) $9,100: We initially had Giannis as our top stud of the day, but now that he’s out, we’re going a little deeper into the pool. It’s not like Fox is some bum, though, playing at a $10,000 level over the last two months. In fact, Fox has at least 28 DraftKings points in 28-straight games, averaging 45 fantasy points per game in that span. Cleveland is not a worrisome matchup either, with the Cavs ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency.
- Jayson Tatum (BOS) $8,600: With Kemba Walker expected to miss this game, Tatum is one of the best plays on the board. With him off the floor this season. JT is averaging 1.33 DK points per minute while leading the team with a 32 percent usage rate. Those are some stout averages, and we love that Memphis owns a 29th OPRK against opposing power forwards as well.
- Khris Middleton (MIL) $7,600: With Giannis likely missing this game, Middleton should be running the show. With the MVP off the floor, Middleton is posting a 32 percent usage rate while averaging 1.4 DK points per minute. That absurd rate would lead to about 50 fantasy points in 35 minutes of play, making him one of the best per-dollar plays out there.
Notable Players to Fade
- Joe Ingles (UTH) $5,700: This has been a theme for us all year, and it’s worked pretty well. Use Ingles when Donovan Mitchell or Mike Conley is out but fade him when they’re both in the lineup! He’s averaging over 30 DK points per game as a starter and is generating a 22-point average as a bench player.
- Kyle Anderson (MEM) $5,100: Anderson has really hit a wall since everyone returned to this Memphis lineup. He’s scored 29 or fewer fantasy points in each of his last nine games, averaging just 21 DraftKings points per game in that span. That really worries us since he’s likely matching up with a defensive stud like Tatum here.
- Moses Brown (OKC) $5,100: Brown is an awesome player when filling in for Big Al, but his role stinks when Horford is in the lineup. In his 10 games coming off the bench, Moses is averaging just 10 minutes a night. That obviously won’t get it done no matter how well he plays, and he’s a must fade anytime Horford is ready to go.
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Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.
Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.