The NBA trade deadline is approaching fast, and Thursday is shaping up to be a very interesting five-game slate. More value could open up for tonight’s slate as a flurry of trades could happen leading up to Thursday’s 3 PM ET deadline. DFS players need to be on top of the news up until 7:30 PM ET. Let’s dive right into Thursday’s slate.
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Most Value Per Dollar
With a five-game slate on the docket, I will offer what I feel are the best plays on the slate. I will be spending most of my salary on either PF or SF as I feel the best values can be found at center with James Wiseman and Mitchell Robinson. There are plenty of mid-tier options to select from at PG and SG when creating lineup builds. The Warriors versus Kings (over/under 223.5) and Knicks against Wizards (226.5) will be the two games I will be targeting the most in Thursday’s slate.
On the injury front, Steph Curry and LeBron James are out, while Goran Dragic, Danny Green, and Seth Curry are deemed questionable. Add in the unpredictability of the NBA trade deadline, and there could be a lot of news to digest up until 7:30 PM’s lineup lock.
If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.
Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.
Andrew Wiggins (GSW) $6,700
After erupting for a career-high 40 points, Wiggins has struggled with his shot in his last two games, shooting 34% (10-for-29) from the floor. He has a high usage rate of 28.5% over his last three games, 5.2% more than any other Warrior during that span. Steph Curry is out another week, and with a plus matchup against the Kings, Wiggins is primed for a bounce-back game.
De’Aaron Fox (SAC) $8,700
De’Aaron Fox isn’t being priced as a top point guard option and is averaging 47.5 DK points over 10 games in March. He will get a nice pace-up spot against the Warriors, which is projected to be the slate’s second-highest scoring game. Golden State is fifth in OPRK against point guards, but Fox has been on fire as of late, averaging 28.6 points, 7.0 assists, 4.1 rebounds, 1.7 steals, and 1.7 triples across 37.0 minutes over his last four games.
R.J. Barrett (NYK) $6,800
Barrett has been locked into big minutes and has scored at least 30 DK points in seven of his last eight games. Going back to the well with Barrett, who recently poured in 23 points against the Wizards in Tuesday’s win. Barrett is a rock-solid mid-tier option and should produce once again in a plus matchup (Wizards 24th OPRK against small forwards).
Richaun Holmes (SAC) $7,300
Holmes erupted for 48.5 and 33.5 DK points in his previous two games and draws the Warriors on Thursday, which projects to be the second-highest scoring game on the slate. He’s scored at least 30 fantasy points in 13 of his last 14 contests. Since Marvin Bagley went down, Holmes has a usage rate of 18.8% and is averaging 17.2 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks over his last five games.
Derrick White (SAS) $5,800
I was tempted to take Jordan Poole here, but since I recommended three Warriors already, I decided to go with Derrick White. White has scored at least 17 points in three of his last four games. He gets the Clippers Thursday, who rank 18th against opposing point guards. White has the ability to contribute across the board and should exceed value at his current price tag.
Kelly Oubre (GSW) $6,200
Oubre dropped 32.8 DK points in his previous game against the Kings. With Steph Curry out, Oubre is expected to be one of the primary options in the Warriors’ offense in a pace-up matchup against the Kings. He recorded a double-double in his previous game and should continue to benefit in Curry’s absence. Everything is lined up for Oubre hit 5x value in Thursday’s slate.
James Wiseman (GSW) $:4,800
Wiseman returned to action Tuesday after missing the previous three games due to health and safety protocols. He logged 26 minutes and had a usage rate of 23% in his return, only trailing Andrew Wiggins in that category. Wiseman is in a smash spot against the Kings (worst team in the NBA in defense rating) and won’t have to do much to hit value. The rookie will have high ownership, but it’s hard to find a better value play than Wiseman in Thursday’s slate with the matchup and price.
Mitchell Robinson (NYK) $5,100
Robinson (hand) returned to the court recently but has come off the Knicks bench in his last two games. He logged 31 minutes and absolutely dominated the Wizards for 40.5 DK points in Tuesday’s win. I am going back to the well again with Robinson as he should produce against the Wizards, who are ranked 27th in the league in defense rating and 22nd against opposing centers.
Patty Mills (SAS) $4,300
Mills is a salary saver if you’re looking to pay up for Julius Randle, Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George. He’s averaging 21.4 DK points across 29.3 minutes in his last three games. With the trade deadline and injury news breaking an hour before tip-off, more value could open up. Mills is a solid play who should hit value in Thursday’s slate.
Kyle Kuzma (LAL) $6,900
The Lakers will be without LeBron James and Anthony Davis for the foreseeable future. Kuzma has become the Lakers’ primary option on offense. He has a usage rate of 23.6% and is averaging 36.75 DK points in his last two games. The 76ers aren’t a great matchup, but the Lakers will run the offense through Kuzma.
Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Julius Randle (NYK) $10,200: Randle obliterated the Wizards in Tuesday’s win, exploding for 37 points. He’s locked into huge minutes and has an incredible pace-up matchup against the Wizards. Washington has no answer for Randle, and he should able to produce again Thursday night.
- Kawhi Leonard (LAC) $8,800: Leonard goes up against his former team and lit them up for 56.8 and 48.8 DK points in his previous two games against San Antonio. He’s scored at least 42 DK points in four of his last five games. With value at the center and point guard positions, Leonard is someone I am looking to pay up for when constructing my lineup build.
- Paul George (LAC) $7,800: George has struggled from the floor his last two games, shooting 36.7%. Before this two-game stretch, George averaged 47.3 DK points. George is underpriced and draws the Spurs, who are 25th in OPRK against shooting guards. He recently dropped 32 DK points against the Spurs and should be in line to produce another strong outing Thursday.
Notable Players to Fade
- Russell Westbrook (WAS) $10,900: Westbrook is the highest-priced player on the slate. He struggled against the Knicks in Tuesday’s loss, shooting .21 percent (3-of-14) from the floor and posting his lowest DK point total (40.5) since February 5th (18.3). The Knicks are last in NBA in pace, and with the value at point guard in Thursday’s slate, Westbrook is an easy fade for me.
- Damian Lillard (POR) $10,000: Lillard has struggled to find his shot, shooting 36.4% in his last two games. Miami ranks ninth OPRK and seventh overall in defensive rating. There’s plenty of value at point guard, and I would rather spend down at this position with Derrick White, De’Aaron Fox, and Jordan Poole, all in great spots.
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