Buy Low, Sell High (2021 Fantasy Baseball)

 
Baseball has always been a game of trends. Each week in this column, we will look at players through the lens of advanced metrics and various statistical trends to discover which players are underachieving or overachieving in the hopes of identifying potential trade targets or those worth selling at peak value.

All that said, I want to clarify what we mean by the terms “Buy Low” and “Sell High.” These terms reference an old stock strategy in which you buy an asset at a lower price point because it has lost value and sell assets when they peak in value for a larger return on your investment. However, it’s easy to buy too early, and that means you will have to watch the market go lower as you bottom out while watching it crater because you thought buying falling GameStop stock was still a good idea.

Instead, a wiser strategy is to look at trends that show an asset is already on an upward trajectory, allowing you to buy before it peaks. You now have at least some evidence that there will not be any further dips in value, at least not in the short term. Then, sell assets when they go even higher.

How does that apply to fantasy baseball?

Put simply, do not buy players simply because they’ve been bad or sell them just because they’re good. In both cases, look for clues as to why. Find stats showing that a player’s value is actually on the upswing and acquire that player at a fair price, knowing his value is almost sure to keep increasing anyway. Conversely, sell players who hold widely held perceived value but for whom underlying stats show may be on the verge of seeing the floor collapse and get out now.

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Buy Low

Spring Training is winding down, so we don’t have many reliable data points to use, given the fact most players use this period to tinker or shake off the offseason rust. That said, there are some sticky stats to follow, even this early in the game. One thing worth considering is a list of players who have already increased their max exit velocity from last season to this spring.

If you’ve got a little extra pump in your thump, it’s a pretty good sign that you’ll be hitting the ball harder and farther than you have in the past. Five names stand out on this list.

Josh Rojas (2B – ARI)
Josh Rojas has always intrigued me as a power/speed play. He swiped 26 bags at Double-A in 2018 and then hit 12 home runs to go with 19 stolen bases in 2019 at Triple-A in 2019. However, consistent playing time has eluded him up to this point, and his slash of .206/.295/.271 across 277 PA in the majors has not inspired confidence. Nonetheless, Rojas’ .988 OPS this spring and increased max exit velo combine to make him worth adding as the year begins to capitalize on a potential hot streak.

Yadier Molina (C – STL)
Yadier Molina’s best days are most certainly behind him, but catcher is a veritable wasteland. If Molina is hitting the ball harder, he could easily sneak into the back end of the top 12 at the position, and with an average ADP of 249.6 as the 14th catcher off the board, Molina looks like a value.

C.J. Cron (1B – COL)
C.J. Cron hit 30 home runs for the Rays in 2018 and 25 more for Minnesota in just 125 games in 2019. Injuries derailed his season with Detroit in 2020, but Cron’s +3.8 mph increase in max exit value might as well be a turbocharge when you consider he will call Coors Field home in 2021. There probably is no better value at 1B than Cron right now, and a .260 average with 30+ bombs and close to 90 RBI is well within reach so long as he continues to hit the ball with this kind of authority (1.106 OPS).

Clint Frazier (OF – NYY)
It’s not just Yankees fans who have wished Clint Frazier would get more ABs for New York, but poor defense, injuries, and a crowded outfield have prevented him from being a season-long everyday player to this point in his career. This year, Frazier looks poised to open the season as a starting corner outfielder, and he could hit .260 with 25-plus homers and a chance to drive in a boatload of runs given the players hitting in front of him. The increase in max exit velo bodes well for his power output, and that should keep him in the lineup more often than not.

If we move to pitchers, we can also look at K/BB to identify a few starters who have controlled the strike zone this spring and are worth buying early.

Logan Webb (SP – SF)
Logan Webb looks entrenched as the number three starter in San Francisco, and he’s been phenomenal this spring with a 0.53 WHIP. That’s currently the second-lowest mark this spring behind Kenta Maeda. Webb developed a stronger changeup this offseason, and it’s helping him keep batters off balance. The result? He has 17 strikeouts over 11 innings pitched heading into Monday, and he wrapped up his spring by pitching six innings of one-run ball and a 22/2 K/BB ratio. He makes for an excellent streamer against Seattle this week, and if he performs well, consider holding onto him to see where it goes.

Daulton Jefferies (SP – OAK)
Daulton Jefferies has been somewhat of a surprise this spring, and his 0.89 WHIP has been stellar. He has allowed just six runs with a stellar 24/6 K/BB rate. Jeffries still has to beat out A.J. Puk and Cole Irvin for the final rotation spot in Oakland, so he’s not quite mixed-league relevant yet, but Puk is probably best suited in the bullpen this year, and Irvin hasn’t been as sharp.

Jazz Chisholm (SS/2B – MIA)
Jazz Chisholm has always looked the part of a dynamic but raw infielder with elite athleticism. None of that has changed. He hit a 112.7 mph home run on March 17. For context, that would have been the 34th hardest-hit ball out of every batted ball event from 2020. Chisholm also reached a max sprint speed of 29.8 feet per second, so he can also fly. Plus, there’s also this:

Miami is going to run a lot this year. Plus, Marlins general manager Kim Ng announced Chisholm as the Marlins’ starting second baseman to begin the season, and his minor league profile makes me think of B.J. Upton every time I look at it — a low batting average power/speed threat who can’t take a walk but might one day flirt with a 30/30 season if everything breaks right.

Robbie Ray (SP – TOR)
One more pitcher before we start looking at who to sell. Robbie Ray has always been a strikeout tease, one who could rack up double-digit Ks in a game but still somehow manage to kill your WHIP and ERA. The thing is, Ray has been dialing it up to the upper 90s this spring. Great stuff is marked by velocity and movement. If it zigs and zags at 100 mph, you aren’t gonna hit it. So, when a pitcher introduces a new pitch to his arsenal or adds some velo to make his stuff play up, we should take note. That’s exactly what Robbie Ray has done.

Ray still might be fool’s gold in 2021, but in 2017 (the last time he averaged over 94 mph on his heater), he posted a 12.11 K/9, 2.89 ERA, and won 15 games. He’s mostly been a late-round dart throw in mixed leagues, but he’s been electric this spring (1.98 ERA, 18 Ks, 0.80 WHIP across 13.2 IP).

Sell High

Now, let’s take a look at some barrel rates for hitters and command for pitchers to see if there are any players we should be looking to sell before the season begins.

David Fletcher (2B/3B/SS/OF – LAA)
David Fletcher offers tons of positional eligibility, and he’s a fine contact hitter who should provide a strong floor in batting average, but that’s probably all he will offer. Fletcher is going off the board on average at pick 208, but he does not offer much in the way of speed, and his 0.4 Brls/PA% was the absolute worst in baseball in 2020. Does that sound like a top-200 player to you?

Jeff McNeil (2B/3B/OF – NYM)
Jeff McNeil’s 2019 breakout featured plus power and an average of over .300, and while the average figures to stay, a 1.9 0.4 Brls/PA% (10th worst in baseball in 2020) might help explain why he hit just four home runs across 52 games last year. If the slow-footed McNeil can’t push for 20-plus HRs again this season, he runs the risk of slipping into an empty batting average nest for fantasy managers.

James Karinchak (RP – CLE)
James Karinchak entered the offseason as one of the most-hyped closers due to his high strikeout rate (17.67 K/9 in 2020). However, he has walked ten batters this spring in just 9.2 IP, and while the 19 strikeouts look pristine, a 2.07 WHIP and 6.52 ERA will not cut it in the ninth. The team has an intriguing set-up arm in Emmanuel Clase, and manager Terry Francona has already expressed frustration with Karinchak giving away so many free passes. If nothing else, I can see the team preferring to keep their young arms’ arbitration salaries in check. That could lead them to use Nick Wittgren as the closer role since he has the skills (10.65 K/9 in 2020) and will be 30 this year. This is not great news if you spend a top-100 pick on Karinchak as the eighth closer off the board.

Shohei Ohtani (SP – LAA)
Nobody wants to see this name here. In a perfect world, Ohtani is brilliant on the mound and in the batter’s box, and he dazzles us like the phenom that he is. However, Ohtani has walked ten batters in 10.1 IP this spring, and his ERA is a ghastly 12.19. I get it — starting pitchers tinker a lot during the spring, so we should not read too much into the ERA. However, Ohtani has never exhibited great command as a starter. In fact, his command is closer to that of a reliever. And then there is this:

Look, injuries may have left you snake-bit already this spring, and Ohtani is arguably one of the greatest injury-risks in the game. Moving him now, despite his tremendous upside, is more for the risk-averse crowd, and it’s likely those in that audience never drafted Ohtani in the first place. Nonetheless, it’s been a brutal spring already with injuries. If you can fill some holes that have emerged post-draft, selling Ohtani might be the most prudent move you can make, especially while he’s still viewed as a top 150 player in many leagues.

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Paul Ghiglieri is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Paul, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyEvolves.

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Paul Ghiglieri is a featured writer at FantasyPros, providing unique insights and in-depth analysis.