Earlier in the week I published my pitchers to avoid column. I gave the same caveat there that I’m going to share now: the below names aren’t a 2021 busts list. The word “bust” gets thrown around a lot in fantasy sports, but what exactly does it mean? It is used for a player who could absolutely bottom out and give you zero production? Or is better utilized for players we don’t think can match the production level of their ADP?
This article leans more towards the latter. Instead of calling this a “busts” article, I prefer to view it more so as “players to avoid at their current draft costs.” In other words, I’m hoping to avoid land mines in the early rounds of fantasy drafts. By taking known commodities to begin our drafts, we can be in better position to target the right, high-upside picks later on. Anyways, let’s discuss those possible landmines.
The ADP referenced below is courtesy of FantasyPros consensus average draft position data
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Bo Bichette (SS – TOR) ADP: 23
It’s never fun betting against a player as young and exciting as Bichette. The 162-game average for his big league career comes out to 35 homers and 17 stolen bases. Combined with a .307 career average and likely a boat load of runs and RBI in an up-and-coming Blue Jays lineup, those numbers certainly play. In fact, should Bichette reach those lofty expectations over the course of a full season, he’d be an easy first-round pick entering 2022.
A closer look under the hood reveals some reasons to keep expectations in check, however. For starters, Bichette has played just 75 games in the majors thus far. He’s technically entering his third season as a big leaguer but that includes a late-season callup in 2019, a shortened 2020 campaign, and an injury. It’s still too early in Bichette’s career to know exactly what to expect out of him. Pitchers have barely had the opportunity to make adjustments to his success thus far.
Additional concerns include a .361 BABIP for a hitter who doesn’t impact the ball all that hard, a mediocre-at-best walk rate, and a poor 62% stolen base success rate. This situation reminds me of Fernando Tatis Jr. last year in the sense that we have a young hitter with a brief track record of success in the majors, but one who we also have questions about. The difference is that Tatis’ tools were loud, backed up by some elite Statcast data. I don’t expect Bichette to bottom out at all, but there are better investments to make in Round 2 come draft day.
Luis Robert (OF – CWS) ADP: 41
I went in depth on Robert back in my Second-Year Hitters article from January. You can also listen to the podcast version of the article here. Despite the short season, 2020 was a tale of two halves for Robert.
| HR | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
| July-August | 10 | .298 | .348 | .612 |
| September | 1 | .136 | .237 | .173 |
Even with that torrid start it was easy to see how Robert could begin to struggle as the season wore on. For the year, his 57.3% swing rate was the second-highest in all of baseball. He ranked in the top-four of the league when it came to swinging at both inside the zone as well as outside. Combine that with a bottom-two percentile whiff rate and pitching to Robert became downright easy by September.
We know what the upside is, which is why Robert’s ADP is still so aggressive. Stolen bases are so hard to come by, especially without sacrificing other categories to acquire them. Just like Bichette, Robert has the skill set to be a first-round pick next year should everything break right in 2021. Personally, I just need to see more before I’m willing to make this investment – especially with so many proven hitters and starting pitchers going around him. Robert’s sophomore campaign will come down to how well he adjust back to the league.
Trent Grisham (OF – SD) ADP: 68
Grisham is the exact type of player I try to avoid – some power, some speed, and he doesn’t kill you in the other categories. When it all goes right, the end-of-season numbers look great, but from my experience we tend to overrate the speed component with these profiles.
That’s because the speed is the reason Grisham is going this high. Without it, he isn’t a special fantasy asset at all. While I’m pretty confident that the Padres are going to remain one of the more steal-happy teams under Jayce Tingler, this is just a spot in the draft we can’t really afford to miss on.
I’ve also yet to mention the .370 BABIP versus lefties and the fact that San Diego brought in a plethora of versatile position players over the offseason. There’s a real possibility that Grisham doesn’t play against lefties and is dropped in the order against right-handers. The Padres are also losing the DH. A lot of things went right for the 24-year-old’s surroundings last summer, and my fear is that we aren’t factoring in the offseason changes into his price.
Teoscar Hernandez (OF – TOR) ADP: 80
Let’s begin by taking a minute to marvel at Hernandez’s wondrous Baseball Savant page:
The 28-year-old had a career season in 2020. He pulverized the ball when he made contact and it more than made up for his plate discipline issues. Hitting .289 with a .919 OPS, 16 homers, and six stolen bases in just 50 games has some within the industry dreaming about what Hernandez could do over a six-month sample. The disturbing part when it pertains to buying in is that his profile doesn’t display any skill changes.
Hernandez improved his line drive rate in 2020 but the plate discipline remained woeful. Additionally, the .348 BABIP and 33% HR/FB rate are signs of a hitter who got a bit lucky in a shortened season. Then there are the playing time concerns.
It has been reported that Randal Grichuk will primarily play right field in ’21, which was Hernandez’s primary spot last season. The arrivals of George Springer and Marcus Semien give Toronto a surplus of usable position players. While Hernandez might not lose significant playing time initially, there’s no denying that he has little room for error with so many serviceable replacements around him. It was a fun story to see him win a Silver Slugger last season, but this profile has some giant red flags entering 2021.
If I had to choose a 2021 #FantasyBaseball bust…
Teoscar Hernandez
⚾️ Blood red Statcast page with some horrendous plate discipline
⚾️ No real skill changes from years prior
⚾️ .348 BABIP and 33% HR/FB
⚾️ Playing time concerns?— Brendan Tuma (@toomuchtuma) March 12, 2021
Dylan Moore (2B/OF – SEA) ADP: 156
There’s paying for stolen bases and then there’s whatever the heck is going on with Dylan Moore. The 28-year-old was admittedly pretty fantastic last year, swatting eight homers to go along with 12 stolen bases. Power and speed are both great for fantasy baseball, but can we realistically expect this to continue into 2021 and beyond?
Moore hit .255 in 2020 but his 30% career strikeout rate kills any optimism surrounding his batting average. While the 12 steals were nice, Moore was also caught five times. He was also just 11-for-20 (55%!) on stolen base attempts in 2019, so his success rate doesn’t inspire confidence moving forward.
While he improved upon his batted-ball results last year, Moore’s Statcast metrics still weren’t anything special. A deadened ball in 2021 won’t help either. Ultimately, Moore’s being priced at a premium due to his value from last summer, but there isn’t a lot of reasons to expect similar production this season.
Honorable Mentions:
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Brendan Tuma is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Brendan, check out his archive and follow him @toomuchtuma.
