Not too long ago, MLB teams would ask their starter to go six strong innings, bring in a couple set up men, and then cue the music as their closer took the mound in the ninth in hopes of a save. However, closers who resemble “Wild Thing” from Major League are becoming few and far between.
Major league clubs have changed how they seek to get 27 outs, and as a result, we need to change our approach as fantasy owners. In this relief pitcher primer, we will discuss some of the changes that we have seen in the deployment of relievers, and how we need to adjust as we enter fantasy baseball draft season.
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The Opener
Perhaps the most prominent change across the league has been the installment of “the opener.” The Tampa Bay Rays were the first to use this strategy, in which a traditional relief pitcher was asked to pitch the first inning before the de facto starter entered the game. The deployment of an opener has become increasingly popular over the past few seasons.
The strategy has many trickle-down effects on fantasy baseball. For the boxscore, the pitcher credited with the start has to be the player who got the ball in the first inning. The player enters the game in the second inning and is asked to pitch the bulk of the innings while not counting against a fantasy owner’s start limit.
Clearly, the opening pitcher himself does not hold much fantasy value. The player will count against a starts limit while only pitching one or two innings. Additionally, the pitcher will not be eligible for a win but could be charged with a loss if he gets knocked around in his short outing.
How MLB Teams Approach Saves
In addition to changing how they approach the start of games, MLB teams have also made adjustments to their late-inning strategy. While the opener being deployed is seldom the top arm out of the bullpen, closers are not always asked to pitch the ninth either. Instead, big league managers are now asking their best relievers to enter the game in critical spots in the game.
This change in strategy for MLB teams is best illustrated by looking at how the save statistic has evolved over the last decade.
Obviously, 2020 only saw MLB teams play 60 games compared to the usual 162. However, Brad Hand of Cleveland was the league leader in saves with just 16. Extrapolated over a full season, that would be 43 saves. No other pitcher in 2020 recorded a save total that would reach the 40+ save mark in a full season.
Much like running back committees that have emerged in the NFL, more and more MLB teams are using multiple pitchers to get the final outs of close games. Sometimes, the best reliever will be used in a key spot in the eight-inning against a strong part of the batting order. Managers continue to use lefty-lefty matchups, which could also alter when the supposed closer is handed the ball on the mound.
Know Your League
Perhaps more than any other position, how you approach relief pitchers will greatly depend on the settings of your league. In a rotisserie or categories league, you’ll need to decide if you want to prioritize the saves or holds statistics. Generally, I would advise against this. If your league combines holds and saves into one category, then that one category is not worth investing a lot of draft capital.
While relievers will contribute to a variety of statistical categories, they will primarily contribute to saves, holds, wins, and losses. Like other pitchers, they will have a WHIP, ERA, and can rack up strikeouts, but since they have shorter outings, these categories will be less critical when compared to those of starting pitchers.
In a head-to-head league, relief pitchers can earn points through strikeouts and entering the game in opportunities to pick up a win, hold, or save. However, it’s important to remember that it is becoming increasingly difficult to determine which players will be getting the save opportunities. Sometimes, closers will enter the game in high-leverage situations which makes them susceptible to a loss, rather than the reliever having a good chance of picking up a save.
Similar to the shift to Superflex or 2QB leagues in fantasy football, I believe we are reaching the point that fantasy baseball leagues should be save + hold scoring. In roto leagues, this means a separate category for saves and holds. In points leagues, both saves and holds should have value. If your league does not recognize holds, then you can wait even longer for relief pitchers.
The Waiver Wire is Your Friend
With it more difficult than ever to predict who will receive save opportunities out of the bullpen, it serves to reason that we as fantasy owners should not invest a large number of high draft picks on relief pitchers. MLB Managers have shown to be more willing to remove a player from the closer role or to use a committee. Therefore, players will emerge off the waiver wire who are being used in save situations or are getting more opportunities in high-leverage situations in later innings.
Last year, players like Brandon Kintzler and Ryan Pressly emerged to be valuable closers for the Marlins and Astros, respectively. Similarly, veteran players drafted to be closers like Hector Neris of the Phillies were quickly displaced from their roles and hurt fantasy owners. The bottom line is that saves are becoming increasingly difficult to predict. As fantasy owners, we can take advantage of this by waiting on relievers in the draft, paying close attention to changing bullpens around the league, and being active on the waiver wire midseason.
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Shane Bryant is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Shane, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @ShaneBryant31.