It’s Saturday, and we’ve got an exciting five-game slate on tap headlined by NBA Finals rematch between the Heat and Lakers on national TV. As always, let’s dive into the best values, studs, and fades for the evening’s DFS action.
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Most Value Per Dollar
Saturday’s slate features four of the top teams in PACE Factor and seven teams in the top-15, so prepare for a fast-paced night of hoops. Remember, the higher number of possessions a team has during a game drastically increases a player’s chance to put up more stats and, in turn, score more fantasy points.
The POR/WAS matchup comes in with the highest over-under on the slate at 242, as both teams rank bottom-five in defensive efficiency this season. The last time these two teams played back on February 2nd, there were 253 total points scored as the Trail Blazers won 132-121 in regulation. We should expect much of the same in Saturday’s meeting, making this game a solid foundation when building out your lineup.
For a full list of odds and point spreads, visit BettingPros.
Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.
Enes Kanter (C – POR) $6,200
Kanter has been a force while Jusuf Nurkic has been out with a hand injury, logging a double-double in 62% of his games and averaging 12.6 rebounds during that span. He gets a Wizards squad surrendering the fifth-most FanDuel points to opposing centers this season and just dropped 39 FanDuel points against them back on February 2nd. Combine that with the fact that this matchup has the highest over-under on the slate, and Kanter is a lock to exceed 6X value.
Kyle Kuzma (PF – LAL) $5,900
While Miami ranks inside the top-10 in defensive efficiency, they’ve primarily struggled to contain opposing power forwards this season, surrendering the third-most FanDuel points to the position. Kuzma is the next man up now that Anthony Davis will be out of the lineup for four weeks, and that was clear in Thursday’s loss to the Nets when he put up 16 points and nine rebounds in 34 minutes. He’s averaging just under 14.0 points and 6.7 rebounds in 29.0 minutes during the seven games Davis has missed this season.
Gary Trent Jr. (SG – POR) $5,500
Portland has won its last six games, and Trent has played a huge part in that. The sharpshooter has averaged 19.6 points on just under 46% from beyond the arc during February and just lit the Wizards up for 26 points back on February 2nd. As previously stated, I want as many pieces of this game as possible, and Trent’s $5,500 salary is too good to pass up in this likely shootout.
Mikal Bridges (SF – PHO) $5,300
Bridges is averaging 33.3 minutes per game for the Suns this season. The Grizzlies surrender the fifth-most FanDuel points to opposing small forwards this season. Also, considering the fact that the 24-year old lit them up for 34.6 FanDuel points earlier this season, Bridges’ price has fallen more than $200 from his season average of $5,500.
Cody Zeller (C – CHA) $5,100
Despite seeing a small decline in minutes, Zeller has accumulated at least 10 points and seven rebounds in four of his last five games. He gets a Warriors team that’s been middle of the pack defending opposing centers this season but will be without James Wiseman and Kevon Looney once again, forcing the 6’6″ Juan Toscano-Anderson to see minutes at center behind Draymond Green. For what it’s worth, Golden State will be playing their third game in four nights while Charlotte hasn’t played since Valentine’s Day. Zeller could easily push for 6X value in a high-scoring affair.
Davis Bertans (PF – WAS) $4,700
Coming off a career-high 35 points and nine threes, Bertans is sizzling at the moment and gets a matchup against the team surrendering the most FanDuel points to his position this season. Given that 253 total points were scored the last time these two teams met, the stars are aligning for Bertans to have yet another monster game. Priced at only $4,700, he may be the best value in the entire slate.
Cory Joseph (PG – SAC) $4,100
The crafty vet has seen 27 minutes over his last four games as Sacramento looks to find some stability in their rotation. Over that span, he’s averaged 15 points, 2.5 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and just under 25 FanDuel points per game and now gets a Bulls team ranking in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency. The Kings have lost five in a row and desperately need a win, which could prompt Joseph to play an even bigger role on Saturday.
Garrett Temple (SF – CHI) $4,200
Temple has seen 30+ minutes in each of his last five games while averaging just under 25 FanDuel points per contest. The Kings give up the seventh-most FanDuel points to opposing small forwards this season, and Temple’s $4,200 make him a bargain considering his recent production.
Talen Horton-Tucker (SG – LAL) $4,000
This is a sneaky play as most will pivot to Alex Caruso in light of Dennis Schroder’s absence. However, THT was given more minutes and out-produced Caruso in Thursday’s loss to the Nets after it was announced that Schroder wouldn’t play due to the league’s health protocols regarding Covid-19. Miami provides an interesting matchup for Horton-Tucker, as they surrender the second-most FanDuel points to his position this season. If he can get near 27 minutes again on Saturday, he will be a lock to hit 6X value.
De’Anthony Melton (PG – MEM) $3,800
Apparently, many forget what Melton was doing before going down with a shoulder injury earlier this month. In the five games leading up to his injury, Melton was averaging 27.1 FanDuel points per game and just posted 24.1 FanDuel points in only 17 minutes in Friday’s return. Given that Dillon Brooks is questionable and his minutes should be slightly increased, Melton is a fantastic value play against the Suns.
Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Damian Lillard (PG – POR) $9,900: Lillard has been unconscious over February, averaging 30.2 points, 8.8 assists, and 1.4 steals per game while catapulting Portland to fifth place in the competitive Western Conference. As stated earlier, the POR/WAS matchup is the one to attack, and the best way to do that would be building around the game’s best player. He’s averaged 61.1 FanDuel points over his last three and has an excellent chance to increase that average on Saturday.
- Bradley Beal (SG – WAS) $9,700: Much like Damian Lillard, Beal has scored 50+ FanDuel points in three of his last five games and gets the team who he just dropped 37 points on earlier in February. Russell Westbrook’s presence in the lineup will certainly take some shots away, but with his salary down nearly $300 from his season average, he’s well worth the price of admission.
- Zach LaVine (SG/SF – CHI) $9,500: LaVine has scored 30+ points in six of his last seven games as he continues to lead the Bulls through an up and down season. Considering that both Chicago and Sacramento rank in the bottom-half of defensive efficiency this season, plenty of points are likely to be scored in this one, which suits LaVine’s game well. The Bulls did just play in Philadelphia on Friday, so his status heading into the second leg of a back-to-back set should be monitored.
- Jimmy Butler (SG/SF – MIA) $9,200: Miami’s recent struggles have certainly been well documented, but Jimmy Butler has been ballin’. He’s logged a triple-double four times in his last five games and has scored 40+ FanDuel points in 10 of his last 11 games. The Heat desperately needs a win against the reigning NBA champs and will go through Butler in order to do so.
- Deandre Ayton (C – PHO) $6,600: Ayton’s price tag is mind-boggling here, as it’s nearly $1,000 less than his season average price of $7,400. Considering the fact that he put up 18 points and 16 rebounds against the Grizzlies back in January, he’s looking more like a value play at this point. The fact that Memphis is surrendering the third-most FanDuel points to opposing big men this season is just the cherry on top.
Notable Players to Fade
- Steph Curry (PG/SG – GS) $10,000: It feels egregious to fade Curry considering what he’s been able to do this season, but I’m lowering expectations as the Warriors will be playing their third game in four nights. It’s not that I think Curry will have a bad game, but his top salary among point guards will make it harder for him to return solid value. I’d much rather look at guys like Damian Lillard ($9,900) or De’Aaron Fox ($8,100).
- Devin Booker (PG/SG – PHO) $7,700: Booker has quieted down over the last two games after his strong stretch of play earlier this month. He scored less than 30 FanDuel points in Friday’s win over the Pelicans and gets a Grizzlies team that held him to 12 points back in January. He’s too hit or miss on days where his salary is greater than his season average ($7,600).
- Gordon Hayward (SG/SF – CHA) $7,300: The matchup is good, but Hayward was only averaging 26.3 FanDuel points in his three games prior to injuring his back. He hasn’t played since January 12th, so it’s possible he gets a smaller workload than usual in his first game back. I’d rather spend up to grab Jimmy Butler before rolling out Hayward in this one.
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Alex Burns a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Alex, check out his archive and follow him @aburnshoops.