Saturday is here, and with it comes an exciting eight-game slate. The average over/under for Saturday’s games is currently at 227, so there will certainly be lots of offensive firepower on display. As always, let’s dive into my favorite value plays, studs worth their salary, and notable players to fade. Buckle up!
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Most Value Per Dollar
When looking at Saturday’s games, it’s clear that it’s a very deep slate. Each position is filled with top-tier studs and low-salary producers, which can make building out your roster a bit more difficult at times. In slates like these, it’s imperative to attack the matchups that appear to be high-scoring affairs. Centering your lineups around games with high-projected point totals will offer a higher floor and increase your chances to maximize value.
The Blazers/Bulls game has the highest over/under on Saturday’s slate at 232, as both teams are currently bottom-five in defensive efficiency. It’s a shootout waiting to happen, and savvy managers will build their lineups around this game. For a full list of odds and spreads, check out BettingPros.
Rest will also be something to watch for on Saturday, as six of the sixteen teams in action will be playing on the second leg of a back-to-back set, so some teams may be inclined to give key players the night off. When this occurs, it unlocks more value as low-salary rotational players are oftentimes thrust into larger roles. With that said, it’s important to keep up with the NBA’s injury reports throughout the day, so you can take advantage of the opportunity when this takes place.
Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary.
Jae Crowder (PF – PHO): $5,800
Believe it or not, Crowder has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of Devin Booker’s missed time. Over his last three games in which Booker missed, Crowder has produced 18 points and 7.6 rebounds while seeing his usage rate climb to 20.3%. Things should be more of the same with Booker already ruled out of Saturday’s tilt against the Mavericks. Dallas is also playing on the second night of a back-to-back set, which indicates that their middle of the pack defense could be lacking. Remarkably, Crowder remains under $6,000 after averaging 34.2 FanDuel points over his last three games, so he appears to be a lock for 6x value once again on Saturday.
Keldon Johnson (SF – SA): $5,700
Johnson has scored greater than 32.5 FanDuel points in three of his last four games and gets a juicy matchup against a Grizzlies team that hasn’t played in nearly two weeks. On top of that, they are surrendering the second-most FanDuel points to opposing small forwards so far this season, presenting Johnson with plenty of upside on Saturday. Surprisingly, he’s played the most minutes (560) out of every Spurs player this season and sees just over 31 minutes per game, so he should have no problem hitting 6x value in this one.
Lonzo Ball (PG – NO): $5,400
Amid rumors that he is actively being shopped, Ball made his presence felt with a 27-point, eight-assist outing in Friday’s win over the Bucks. He now gets a Rockets team who just allowed the combination of Damian Lillard, Gary Trent Jr., and Anfernee Simons to combine for 67 points, 10 assists, and 16 threes earlier this week. He does have Nickeil Alexander-Walker breathing down his neck for more playing time, but Ball’s showing on Friday will certainly earn him a big role against the Rockets on Saturday. This game also has the fourth-highest over/under at 223.5, so there should be plenty of points on the board.
Steven Adams (C – NO): $5,400
Adams has been unreal as of late, ripping down 14.2 rebounds over his last four games and posting at least 30 FanDuel points in three of his last four. He now gets the Rockets on Saturday, who have given up the eighth-most rebounds and the third-most offensive rebounds per game to opposing teams this season. For whatever reason, his price is over $500 less than his season average, so he’s worth playing on a night when the center position doesn’t have a ton of elite options.
Gary Trent Jr. (POR): $5,000
Trent is coming off of a 23-point game in which he drilled seven threes in 37 minutes of action and is averaging 39 minutes over his last two games. He’s knocked down 14 threes over his last three games and is heading and is heading into a matchup against the Bulls, which has the highest over/under on Saturday’s slate. There will be tons of points scored in this one, and Trent is feeling it at the moment. It’s also worth noting that his usage rate over the last four games without CJ McCollum in the lineup is now up to 19%.
Tyrese Haliburton (SG – SAC): $4,900
Haliburton might be the best value on Saturday’s slate as it’s hard to find a guy averaging 32.8 FanDuel points over his last three games priced below $5,000. Miami has surrendered the most FanDuel points to opposing guards this season and could be without one or both of Tyler Herro and Goran Dragic due to various injuries. The rookie has averaged 11 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 6.6 assists over his last three games and just fell four rebounds shy of notching his first-career triple-double on Friday. He’s a lock for 6x value and has the upside to produce even more. Get him in your lineups.
Xavier Tillman (PF – MEM): $4,600
The rookie power forward was seemingly finding his stride before Memphis was forced to postpone five games due to health and safety protocols. They are set to return to action Saturday against the Spurs, and Tillman should once again see a large role with Jonas Valanciunas ruled out while remaining in health protocols. He’s averaged just under 30 FanDuel points and 1.2 FanDuel points per minute over his last three games, while San Antonio is surrendering the second-most FanDuel points to opposing power forwards this season.
Thaddeus Young (PF – CHI): $4,200
Many people flocked to Daniel Gafford after Wendell Carter Jr.’s injury, and rightfully so. Surprisingly, Young has been the biggest beneficiary of Carter’s absence thus far, and he gets a juicy matchup on Saturday. He’s averaged over 31 FanDuel points across his last five games and fell just one assist and one rebound shy of recording a triple-double in Monday’s loss to the Celtics. In addition to his strong play, Portland has given up the eighth-most FanDuel points to opposing power forwards this season, and as previously mentioned, Saturday’s game has the highest projected over/under on the slate at 232.
Anfernee Simons (POR): $3,600
Simons is seeing a 24% usage rate in 167 total minutes without CJ McCollum on the floor and is averaging just under 27 minutes over his last three games. As mentioned above, I want to attack this matchup as it has the highest over/under on the slate, and Simons’s cheap $3,600 price tag allows me to go after some studs in this one as well. It’s nearly unheard of for a guy seeing as much usage as Simons is to be priced under $4,000. As if you needed any more convincing, Chicago is surrendering the sixth-most FanDuel points to opposing guards this season.
Abdel Nader (SF – PHO): $3,800
Nader is quietly averaging 22.5 minutes of playing time over his last four games and seeing a 20.8% usage rate with Devin Booker off the court this season. If you are looking for a cheap flier who will likely see less than 5% ownership, Nader is your guy. With Dallas dropping each of their last four games and playing on the second night of a back-to-back set, the hope would be that Phoenix can put the game away early and allow Nader to rack up the points in garbage time.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Damian Lillard (POR) $9,700: The fact that Lillard is priced below $10,000 is dumbfounding. As if he wasn’t elite enough, he’s averaging just under 50 FanDuel points over his last four games without CJ McCollum in the lineup behind 32.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 8.2 assists a night. Combine this with the fact that Saturday’s game against the Bulls has the highest/over-under on the slate, and Lillard has the potential to smash his $9,700 price tag. For what it’s worth, the Bulls are surrendering the sixth-most FanDuel points to opposing points guards this season and are bottom-10 in opponents’ three-point percentage this season.
- Zach LaVine (CHI) $9,000: If I want every piece possible of the Bulls/Blazers matchup, then LaVine a must-play. He’s posted at least 41.7 FanDuel points in seven of his last eight games and sees an elite 33.2% usage rate with Wendell Carter out of the lineup. There’s a high chance this game ends up being a shootout, and LaVine possesses the upside to provide a dominant performance.
- Chris Paul (PHO) $7,200: Paul is averaging 41.4 FanDuel points over his last three games as the Suns are leaning heavily on him without Devin Booker in the lineup. His usage rate has skyrocketed to 28.5% during that span, and he gets a beaten down Mavericks team on the second night of a back-to-back. The crafty vet is averaging 1.13 FanDuel points per minute without Booker in the lineup and could be in store for much more if the Mavericks can keep the game close.
- Kristaps Porzingis (DAL) $7,000: Porzingis has been disappointing over his last three games, failing to post more than 30 FanDuel points in any of them. As a result, his price tag has fallen considerably and is now over $800 less than his season average. He finds himself in a juicy matchup against the Suns, who have given up the third-most FanDuel points to opposing centers this season. The big man was averaging 44.3 FanDuel points in his three games before his rough stretch, so he could easily push for 6/7x value in a plus matchup on Saturday.
Notable Players to Fade
- Deandre Ayton (PHO) $8,100: Ayton has only averaged 8.5 points and 13.5 rebounds over his last two games and is awarded the top salary at the center position. It’s nothing personal against him, but I would much rather roster guys like Steven Adams ($5,200) or Mason Plumlee ($5,500), as they are much better candidates to maximize their value while allowing the flexibility to build around some of the aforementioned studs.
- DeMarcus Cousins (HOU) $6,500: After promising to find more minutes for Cousins despite Christian Wood returning to the lineup, Rockets head coach Stephen Silas only played him for 11 minutes in Thursday’s win over the Blazers. It’s clear his upside will be limited as long as Wood is healthy, and it will likely take another injury to the former for Boogie to be worth his current price tag. I’d much rather spend down at the position on Saturday.
- Brandon Ingram (NO) $8,300: Ingram has bounced back in the scoring department after a rough stretch of games early in January. Despite this, he’s only averaging 2.8 rebounds and 3.7 assists over his last seven games, which is not enough production for someone with an $8,300 price tag. On top of that, Houston is only allowing the second-fewest FanDuel points to opposing small forwards this season. Due to his lack of production in other areas, Ingram remains one bad shooting night away from posting a dud. I would much rather roll out guys like Jerami Grant ($7,800) or Gordon Hayward ($7,200).
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Alex Burns a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Alex, check out his archive and follow him @aburnshoops.