FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Saturday (01/02)

The day after New Year’s is usually filled with leftovers and relaxing as the day before kicked all our butts. Well, the NBA gave us 10 great games to keep us up late on New Year’s Day, and now the association returns with 6 games. Let’s see who’s worth playing and fading today!

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Value Plays

Point Guard

 
Trae Young has been on fire to start the season, and his Hawks are 4-1 because of it. He’s averaging 30.6 points, 8.0 assists per game, and 45.9 fantasy points per game. He’s a walking bucket and matched up with the young Cavs guards; Young could be looking at his second double-double of the season and last three games.

Darius Garland has been a surprise to the season, consistently outproducing his projected production. Garland has recorded three games of 37 or more fantasy points and currently recording 19.0 points and 7.2 assists per game. Atlanta is the middle of the pack when it comes to defending guards. Garland or Sexton are both good plays tonight and could once again outperform their projections.

Markelle Fultz averaged 21.0 points per game through three games to start the season and just 10.0 in the past two games. I see this matchup with OKC as a prime opportunity to get back into the scoring column and perhaps record his second double-double of the young season. The Thunder allow the ninth-most fantasy points per game (23.21) and the most assists per game (9.83).

Shooting Guard

 
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is, interestingly enough, the best selection at shooting guard on this slate. He’s recorded three games of 36 or more fantasy points per game but coming off his worst outing of the season with 22.8 fantasy points versus New Orleans. Before that, he’s been a must-have in DFS and totaled at least 23 points and 7 assists in his first three games. Orlando is bottom 10 in allowed rebounds (30th) and assists (28th) to point guards.

Collin Sexton has been tremendous this season, averaging 25.8 points per game for the Cavs. The only issue keeping him from being a premiere DFS option is his lack of assists (3.8) and rebounds (2.0). Sexton played 36 and 40 minutes in the last two games, and for the $700 less, Sexton is an alternative play to Garland. Both players are similar plays but comparing the two, Garland’s all-around efforts make up for his lack of scoring.

Eric Bledsoe has been a disappointment in DFS terms to start his Pelicans campaign. He posted his second-best outing with the Pelicans going for 25.1 fantasy points in his previous game with his second-most points scored (17). Versus Toronto last season, Bledsoe averaged 14.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 5.7 assists in three meetings with the Bucks. I doubt he posts those numbers, but he could very well have a 20-point effort along with a few rebounds or assists each.

Small Forward

 
Gordon Hayward, the past two games have had a few pairs of eyes on him, and tonight could be no different. Versus Brooklyn, Hayward recorded 48.7 fantasy points, and in the last two combined, he’s at 43.0. I predict this to be his best outing since the Nets game, and the 76ers aren’t specifically great to bad at defending small forward to start the season ranking in the middle of the pack in nearly every category.

Larry Nance Jr. has had an excellent start to the season, and without Kevin Love, his role will continue to increase. Nance is becoming a double-double threat alongside Drummond, and with his passing ability, he becomes a quiet nightly option to triple-double. He’s averaging 9.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.0 assists through five games and played 33 or more minutes in four of five contests. Nance is averaging 0.96 fantasy points per minute, and that’ll likely increase over the next few weeks.

Cam Reddish is a sleeper option but has put together three-consecutive impressive performances. Reddish has averaged 14.3 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 27.6 fantasy points per game during that stretch. Reddish has played 30 or more minutes in three of five games to start the season and has one turnover in four of five games, keeping him in the rotation. He’s a decent play if you’re digging deep.

Power Forward

 
Zion Williamson has been impressive to start his sophomore year, and this matchup with the Raptors is a favorable one. Toronto allows the eighth-most fantasy points per game to power forwards (50.12) on the season, and Williamson is at 34.2 himself. He’s yet to double-double over the last two games, and versus the Raptors’ Padcal Siakam and Chris Boucher, I like his chances of breaking that streak.

Aaron Gordon is due for an increase in usage as Evan Fournier, and Terrence Ross could both miss time. Gordon had two 30-point plus fantasy point efforts in his first two games but yet to surpass 25 fantasy points in the last three games. Versus OKC, this is a good chance for him to get back to balling, and if they want to advance to 5-1, Gordon has to pick up his play versus a mediocre Thunder defense.

Darius Bazely had two notable performances to open the season but has taken a step back over the last two. Bazely has registered 20 or more fantasy points in three of four games but failed to surpass seven points or assists in his previous two. Bazely recorded 15 points and 10 rebounds in the season-opener and 9 points and 11 rebounds in the second. Versus Orlando, he and Aaron Gordon will be an exciting matchup for both players, and they should both post similar numbers.

Center

 
Joel Embiid has recorded at least 21 points and 9 rebounds in all his games this season, with a low of 40.8 fantasy points versus Orlando. That was a blowout, and his previous low is 47 fantasy points, so no matter how you chalk it up, he’s suitable for 40-plus. Embiid has yet to score 30 points in a game this season, and I like this meeting to be the first.

Nikola Vucevic’s lowest fantasy output in 2020-21 is 35 fantasy points per game in the loss to Embiid and the 76ers, and Vuc’s another center who can fill the stat sheet. The computer models give Vucevic yet another double-double and matched up with Al Horford; I’ll take Vuc to lead the team in rebounds for the sixth-straight game and third-straight scoring.

Bismack Biyombo is about as far as I’d go down the center well tonight. He’s averaging 10.6 points and 7.4 rebounds on the season and should have his hands full versus the 76ers. Biyombo’s played at least 28 minutes in four-straight games and double-doubled in his last effort, 16 points and 12 rebounds for a season-high 36.4 fantasy points. I don’t expect that again, but a 25-point DFS night is possible and likely.

Studs Worth Their Salary

• Joel Embiid (PHI) $10,500 — Embiid should terrorize the Hornets interior, and at 26.5 points and 12.3 rebounds per game, I expect similar numbers versus Charlotte. The Hornets allow the second-most rebounds per game to centers (18.89), so you lock Embiid up for his what should be his fourth double-double in five games. 
• Trae Young (ATL) $9,700 — Young has recorded 40 or more fantasy points in four of five games for the Hawks. He’s yet to exceed 35 minutes and posting 1.46 fantasy points per minute. He already has three 30-point games to his credit to open the early season too.
• Ben Simmons (PHI) $8,600 –– Simmons nearly triple-doubled in his previous game posting 9 points, 10 rebounds, and 8 assists in 24 minutes. Had that not been a blowout, he would have recorded his second-straight double-double and first triple-double of the season. Simmons’ lowest fantasy output is 34.7 fantasy points per game, and I see him going over that and getting back in the double-digits in the scoring column for the fifth time out of six games.
•  Nikola Vucevic (ORL) $8,400 — Vucevic is my second favorite selection for the center position tonight, matched up with OKC. The Thunder have proved time and again they can’t defend big men to open the season, and Vuecvic has double-doubled in four of five games for the Magic. 
• Zion Williamson (NOP) $8,100 — Williamson could be the next power forward/center to post impressive numbers versus Toronto. The Raptors are failing to adjust to interior defense without Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol, while Williamson double-doubled in his first three games.

Notable Players to Fade

• Andre Drummond (CLE) $10,000 — Drummond will match up with Clint Capela, John Collins, and Bruno Fernando tonight, perhaps his most challenging meeting of the season. He’s averaging an impressive 1.45 fantasy points per minute and has double-doubled in all five games for the Cavs to start the season. The Hawks allow the fifth-fewest points per game to centers (17.73) and the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game (43.95).
• Tobias Harris (PHI) $7,200 — Harris has been on fire with 37.3 or more fantasy points in his previous three games, but I’m expecting his production to decrease versus Charlotte. The Hornets have an array of forwards that can defend and rebound versus forwards. I’d rather have Embiid or Simmons versus Charlotte.
• Steven Adams (NOP) $6,000 –– Adams is trending upwards in his past few games, but most of that was due to favorable matchups for him and a date with his former Thunder team. Adams hasn’t by any means peaked, but my prediction is his stock and production will trend downwards for the next few games while Williamson’s will increase.
• Devonte’ Graham (CHA) $5,900 — With LaMelo Ball’s addition, Graham’s season hasn’t been anything to brag about. Graham’s averaging 9.8 points and 6.6 assists for the Hornets, failing to surpass 10 points or six assists in his last two outings. Matched up with the 76ers, Graham is in for another long night.
• Evan Fournier (ORL) $5,300 –– Fournier and Terrence Ross are two plays from Orlando to disregard until they get healthy. Both players are questionable for tonight’s game, and at this point, Vucevic or Aaron Gordon should be your primary focus in DFS for the Magic.

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Vaughn Dalzell is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Vaughn, check out his archive or follow him @VaughnDalzell.