DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Saturday (1/2)

This marks my first article of 2021 and I’m sure you’re just as glad as I am that 2020 is a thing of the past. The good news is that we have basketball to look forward to for the next six months and that already makes this year significantly better than the last. We’ve gotten off to a great start with some solid picks in the opening week and we’ll look to keep that momentum rolling here.

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

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Point Guard

• Young is the most expensive player on the slate and rightfully so. We’ll discuss why later.
• Lowry is also a top option and he too is in the studs section.
• Fultz has been a pleasant surprise for the Magic this season, averaging 31.2 DK points per game.

Shooting Guard

• Oladipo has returned to his All-Star form this season, averaging 38.3 DraftKings points per game. That makes him a great bargain at just $6,700
• Bledsoe has been downright terrible this season but he’s too good of a player to be sitting below $6,000. He’s typically a $7K player when right.
• Hill has been starting for OKC, averaging 25.4 fantasy points per game. He’s done that in limited minutes and it’s a huge total from a $4,800 player.

Small Forward

• Hayward has been running the show for the Hornets, averaging 38 DraftKings points per game.
• Bazley seemingly flirts with a double-double in every game he plays and it makes him too cheap at $5,400
• Reddish has been starting for Atlanta and regularly plays 30 minutes a night.

Power Forward

• Sabonis has been one of the best players in the NBA and we’ll discuss his exploits in the stud section.
• Siakam was benched in the last game, so, look for him to be hungry here. He’s still averaging over 35 DK points per game despite his struggles and that’ll likely be the floor here.
• Washington has at least 39 DK points in two of the three games that Cody Zeller has missed and that makes this price tag way too low.

Center

• Embiid is one of the best options out there and you’ll see why in the next section.
• Same goes for Drummond.
• Robinson has been one of the best per-minute producers in the NBA the last two seasons and if he keeps playing 30 minutes a game, he’ll eventually be a $7,000 player sooner rather than later.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

• Trae Young, ATL ($10,200): While there aren’t any superstars on this slate, Young is still an excellent option. We’re talking about a guy who has at least 41 DraftKings points in every game this season en route to a 48-point average. It’s scary that he’s done that despite not reaching 35 minutes in any game, only adding to his upside with his minutes inevitably creeping up as the season progresses.
• Joel Embiid, PHI ($10,000): Embiid is one of the league leaders with a usage rate north of 30 percent and it’s led to some of the best production of his career. That’s evident when you see that he has at least 40 DK points in all four fixtures this season while averaging over 1.5 DK points per minute. That’s bad news for a Charlotte team with an injured center and an already weak frontcourt.
• Domantas Sabonis, IND ($9,400): Sabonis has been a stat-stuffing machine this season, averaging 22.4 points, 11 rebounds and 7.2 assists per game. That’s led to a 42-point floor in five games this season and that should be no problem against a weak Knicks roster. That was certainly the case when he dropped 58.3 DK points on them in the opener.
• Andre Drummond, CLE ($9,200): The Cavs were messing with Drummond’s minutes last season but he’s established himself as their most valuable player this year. Not only has he surpassed 57 DraftKings points in three of five games, Drum is also averaging 52.2 DK points per game for the year. That’s fantastic news against a 29th-ranked Atlanta defense.
• Kyle Lowry, TOR ($8,000): It’s strange to see Lowry right around $8K. This is a guy who’s scored at least 36 fantasy points in every game this season and that alone makes him a nice value at this price tag. We’re certainly not concerned about a Pelicans team who had one of the worst defenses in the NBA last season either.

5 Notable Players to Fade

• Julius Randle, NYK ($9,100): Randle has been incredible this season but his price is getting a bit out of control and we don’t like that against a top-10 Pacers defense.
• Brandon Ingram, NOP ($8,100): Ingram is in the same boat as Randle, with his price getting to an absurd number. While he’s earned every bit of it, it makes him hard to trust against a Toronto team that sits fifth in defensive efficiency.
• John Collins, ATL ($7,500): Collins is having the worst season of his career, scoring 32 DK points or fewer three times already. That’s not good enough for someone this expansive, particularly against a Cleveland team that owns the best defensive rating in the league right now.
• Fred VanVleet, TOR ($7,700): If we like Lowry, we have to worry a bit about FVV. One of the big reasons why we don’t like I’m today is because the Pelicans allow the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season. That’s scary with VanVleet struggling a bit, scoring less than 30 DK points in two of four games this year.
• Terry Rozier, CHA ($7,000): Rozier has been scorching to start the year but negative regression is headed his way soon. Scary Terry is shooting 51 percent from the field and that’s inevitably going to plummet behind his 42 percent career field goal percentage. That’s even scarier to think about against a Sixers team with the second-best defense in basketball right now.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.