I don’t know if tonight’s slate will live up to the excitement we had last night (Damian Lillard game-winner, anyone?), but I’m cautiously optimistic. We should at least see some offensive fireworks in the Wizards’ matchup against the Nets.
Each week, I’ll be here to profile some strong value plays, studs, and duds for Sunday’s DraftKings slate. I’ll do my best to point you in the right direction, and if you have any questions, you can hit me up on Twitter at @is_sirois. All matchup data is pulled from our defense versus position tool.
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Most Value Per Dollar
Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.
We’ve got a four-game slate tonight at DraftKings, and the matchup between the Wizards and Nets will determine how it plays out. Vegas currently gives the game a projected total of 245 points — that’s the highest of the slate, and it’s high enough for both teams to rank first and second in projected totals. Expect to see a lot of players from both sides in today’s article. I also like the Cavs against a limited T’Wolves squad; they rank fourth in projected points tonight.
I limit my value per dollar selections to players under $7,000, and I’ll try to emphasize players below $5,500 to help you find bargain-bin value so you can fit in some studs.
Collin Sexton (CLE) $6,800
Sexton will cost you less than $7k right now, and you should jump all over him at that price. He’s had a down couple of games recently, but he only needs 34 points to hit 5x value — that’s something he’s achieved in half of his last 10 games. It helps that the T’Wolves give up the eighth-most DraftKings points per game (DKPPG) to opposing point guards.
Darius Garland (CLE) $5,600
Garland has played at point guard in 100% of his minutes this year, leading Sexton to play shooting guard whenever he’s on the court. I like the matchup for the Cavs tonight, and Garland should do plenty of damage alongside Sexton.
DeAndre Jordan (BKN) $5,200
The Wizards give up the second-most DKPPG to opposing centers, and Jordan is set to capitalize on their poor play in the paint tonight. He won’t set the world on fire, but he’s been remarkably consistent since the Jarrett Allen trade; he’s scored at least 19.5 DK points in every game since then.
Joe Harris (BKN) $5,500
The other Net I like as a value play tonight, Joe Harris should post a lot of points in this high-scoring matchup. The matchup could be better, as the Wizards rank around the league average in DKPPG allowed to small forwards. That said, they also give up the most DKPPG to shooting guards — and Harris plays there 44% of the time.
Terrence Ross (ORL) $5,400
I often talk up Ross (and he often disappoints), but the Raptors give up the eighth-most points to shooting guards, and Ross has dropped 30-plus DK points in consecutive games. He’ll hit 5x value against this price if he keeps that streak rolling.
Seth Curry (PHI) $4,500
Curry hasn’t done much for the Sixers recently, but the Pacers give up the fifth-most DKPPG to shooting guards, so there’s no time like the present for him to bounce back. He needs 22.5 DK points to hit value, and he’s hit that mark in five of his last 10 games.
Taurean Prince (CLE) $4,300
The T’Wolves give up the 13th-most DKPPG to power forwards, which is where the Cavs have been using Prince, and you can get him at a steep discount after his poor showing against the Knicks. Prince had been averaging 28.9 DKPPG for the Cavs before Friday’s matchup, but he just needs 21.5 points to hit 5x value.
Isaac Okoro (CLE) $3,900
I’m not a huge fan of Okoro, but FantasyPros’ projections for tonight’s slate adore him. The model projects him to score 24.2 DK points this evening, more than 5x value against his low-end price point.
Rui Hachimura (WAS) $5,100
Hachimura struggled in his first game back, and he told reporters that “it’s [been] really hard to keep my mind” given the off-and-on nature of his season so far. It’s risky to play him tonight, but we can expect a ton of points in this game, and the Nets give up the sixth-most DKPPG to power forwards.
Alex Len (WAS) $3,500
Despite his near-minimum salary, Len has scored 20-plus DK points in three of his four games for the Wizards. Moritz Wagner‘s return didn’t affect Len’s usage much against the Hawks, and he’s a great bargain-bin punt tonight, especially since the Nets give up the third-most DKPPG to centers.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Kevin Durant (BKN) $10,300 at WAS: With Harden out, the Nets should lean on Durant and Irving to do most of the scoring tonight. I personally prefer Irving, especially because he’s $1,000 cheaper, but Durant should do plenty of damage as well.
- Bradley Beal (WAS) $10,200 vs. BKN: You have to feel for Beal. He’s continued to post All-Star numbers for this awful Wizards lineup, and he’ll need to go off again tonight to help Washington keep up with the Nets.
- Kyrie Irving (BKN) $9,300 at WAS: The Wizards allow the most DKPPG to point guards, and Irving is the cheapest of Brooklyn’s Big Three. He’s a must-target for me on tonight’s slate.
- Andre Drummond (CLE) $8,400 at MIN: The T’Wolves have struggled against opposing centers with KAT out, as they allow the most DKPPG to the position, and Drummond should feast tonight. Also, his price has fallen enough since the Allen trade for him to be worth rostering.
- Fred VanVleet (TOR) $7,700 vs. ORL: The Magic struggle against shooting guards, as they’ve given up the seventh-most DKPPG to the position. That will benefit VanVleet in a game that the Raptors are projected to win.
Notable Players to Fade
- Joel Embiid (PHI) $9,900 at IND: With Embiid banged-up and facing a big Indiana team, I’m fading him at his too-high price point. You’d be better off with Drummond or a value play at center.
- Domantas Sabonis (IND) $9,100 vs. PHI: The Sixers give up the fewest DKPPG to power forwards, so don’t burn a ton of cap space on Sabonis tonight.
- Pascal Siakam (TOR) $7,600 vs. ORL: Siakam is in a spot similar to Sabonis, as the Magic give up the second-fewest DKPPG to power forwards.
- D’Angelo Russell (MIN) $7,600 vs. CLE: Russell has looked terrible recently. He scored 17 and 21.5 DK points in his last two matchups, and he simply isn’t worth rostering at such a high price point until he gets over this injury.
- Myles Turner (IND) $7,400 vs. PHI: Turner won’t be worth the risk if Embiid plays, as the Sixers give up the second-fewest DKPPG to centers. You’d be better off pivoting to a value play or Drummond tonight.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.