Here’s a look at rankings from our most accurate fantasy football experts of the 2020 season.
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Patrick Mahomes (KC)
It’s now been two straight weeks where Mahomes has finished with fewer than 20 fantasy points, something that happened just once over the first 11 games this season. Let’s not panic too much, as he finished with 19.3 and 18.6 fantasy points, though those aren’t top-five numbers you need. He has thrown for 318-plus yards in six straight games, however, and that’s likely going to continue with how much the run game has struggled. The Chiefs offense ranks as the second-most efficient one in the league while averaging 1.70 PPR points per offensive snap, while the Saints have been getting better and better, and now rank as the sixth-best defense in the league from an efficiency standpoint, allowing 1.31 PPR points per play to their opponents. All in all, the Saints have allowed just 78.5 PPR points per game to their opponents (3rd-fewest). The Chiefs rank No. 1 in the league averaging 110.8 PPR points per game, so something’s got to give. Quarterbacks have been limited, scoring just 15.58 fantasy points per game against the Saints (4th-fewest), which is a number that’s been trending down as the year’s gone on. Don’t forget they allowed the first five quarterbacks they played to score 20-plus fantasy points but have righted the ship since then. Jalen Hurts was the first quarterback since Week 7 who scored more than 16.9 fantasy points against them, and he did it with his legs. The 61.7 percent completion-rate they’ve allowed ranks as the second-lowest in football behind only the Steelers. But here’s the thing: The Saints run a lot of man coverage, which really doesn’t work very well against the Chiefs skill-position players, as they’re too slippery. If the Saints can’t get pressure to Mahomes, they’re going to pay the price. The good news for them is that they’ve generated the second-highest pressure-rate in the league, behind only the Steelers. This may not be the smash spot it was earlier in the year, but if for whatever reason, the Saints have a bad day getting after the quarterback, Mahomes has a ceiling as high as anyone. He obviously remains in your lineup.
Mitch Trubisky (CHI)
As we talked about last week, the Bears have been a much better offense with Trubisky on the field. They’ve rattled off 25, 30, and 36 points over the last three weeks with him under center, and Week 14 was arguably Trubisky’s best game of the season, throwing for 267 yards and three touchdowns on just 33 pass attempts against the Texans. It sounds crazy but Trubisky has thrown three touchdowns in 3-of-6 starts this year. Trubisky hasn’t run the ball much this year and that’s unlikely to change this week, as the Vikings have allowed just 127 yards on the ground to quarterbacks, and they’re one of just four teams who’ve yet to allow a rushing touchdown to them. Trubisky seems to understand some schemes better than others and has shown consistency in that aspect, so when you see his stat lines against the Vikings over the last few years, you have a little concern. He’s failed to throw a touchdown in each of his last three games against them (though he was hurt very early in one of them), and he’s never thrown for more than 207 yards against them in six career games. It’s still Mike Zimmer’s defense, but with that being said, this defense has been worse in 2020 than in years past. Here are their ranks against quarterbacks in each of the four years: 2017 – 9th, 2018 – 12th, 2019 – 11th, 2020 – 15th. It does seem like they’ve turned a corner as of late, as no quarterback has topped 18.6 fantasy points against them in each of their last six games. They’re actually the ninth-toughest matchup when you factor in their strength of schedule to this point. There should still be plenty of pass attempts for Trubisky to give him a stable floor in 2QB leagues, but there are better streaming options in 1QB leagues.
Matt Ryan (ATL)
Ryan just isn’t the same without Julio Jones, so his projection relies solely on Jones’ availability, so we’ll plan as if Jones will play. We all know the Falcons struggle to run the ball, right? When you add in the Bucs run defense, they might never run the ball. Through 13 games, the Bucs opponents have chosen to drop back and pass the ball 63.7 percent of the time, which ranks second to only the Seahawks. That’s led to their opponents throwing the ball 37.8 times, which is the fifth-most in the NFL. When quarterbacks do pass the ball, they’re generating a 69.5 percent completion-rate, which is higher than every team not named the Jets, Jaguars, or Falcons. There have been five quarterbacks who’ve thrown for 280-plus yards against the Bucs, including three 367-plus yard games. Kirk Cousins was the seventh quarterback in a row who’s totaled at least 16.2 fantasy points against them, and that included Daniel Jones and Teddy Bridgewater. It is worth noting that Ryan had issues with this scheme last year, as he threw the ball 97 times in the two matchups, though they only led to 584 yards (6.02 YPA), one touchdown, and one interception. He should be considered a mid-to-high-end QB2 for this game if Jones plays. If he doesn’t, Ryan moves into the low-end QB2 conversation.
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