We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the prop bet odds from FanDuel Sportsbook to give you the best prop bet picks. Here are our top-10 picks for Week 13.

View the best NFL prop bets for Week 10 with our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

 
Brandon Allen (CIN – QB): OVER 203.5 Passing Yards
There is not a lot of confidence in the Bengals’ offense as a whole this week, as the Miami Dolphins are the biggest favorites they have been since 2003. However, big spreads mean more of a likelihood for blowouts, and negative game scripts are a recipe for compiling tons of late yardage. Brandon Allen had just 136 passing yards in his first start against the Giants, but he should be more comfortable leading this offense in his second start.

Devontae Booker (LV – RB): UNDER 66.5 Rushing Yards
Devontae Booker may figure to have the Raiders’ backfield all to himself now that teammate Josh Jacobs is out with an ankle injury. However, given how well Booker has worked in tandem with Jacobs of late, it would not be surprising if head coach Jon Gruden utilizes Jalen Richard and possibly even Theo Riddick on passing downs against the Jets. Thus, the under for Booker’s rushing total is a very interesting contrarian play.

D.K. Metcalf (SEA – WR): OVER 74.5 Receiving Yards
If you have watched the Seattle Seahawks this season, you would know how uncoverable D.K. Metcalf seems at times. Though he will likely draw shadow coverage from the Giants’ best cover cornerback in James Bradberry, Metcalf is nearly matchup proof. His only down games have come in three divisional matchups against the Cardinals and Rams, where he tussled with Patrick Peterson and Jalen Ramsey. The Giants’ unfamiliarity with Metcalf’s ability should mean he is in store for a big day. Metcalf has not had fewer than 92 yards in a non-divisional game the season.

Justin Herbert (LAC – QB): OVER 268.5 Passing Yards
There is a lot of speculation of how well Justin Herbert will fare this week, given Patriots head coach Bill Belichick’s reputation for shutting down rookie quarterbacks. Considering Herbert has gone under this projected total just twice in 10 games, this would take a dominant effort from the Patriots defense to prevent the over from hitting. Herbert has thrown for at least 316 yards in three of his last four games and has attempted at least 42 passes in five of the last six. With New England’s offense not scaring anyone nowadays, there will be no reason for a ball-control offense to keep them off the field. Look for Herbert to continue his aerial assault.

Deebo Samuel (SF – WR): OVER 50.5 Receiving Yards
Deebo Samuel’s first game back from a three-game absence was a big one, as he turned in 133 yards on 11 catches against the Rams. That makes three straight games he has amassed at least 65 yards receiving when active. He figures to be heavily targeted once again against a Bills secondary that allows 243.5 YPG.

Tyreek Hill (KC – WR): OVER 73.5 Receiving Yards
Tyreek Hill is coming off one of the best games for a wide receiver of all time. His 13-catch, 269-yard, and three-touchdown effort last week against Tampa Bay was nothing sort of sensational. The speedster has a ridiculous 47 targets over the last three games, and he has 98 or more yards receiving in each of his last four. He faces a Denver defense that “bottled him up” for 55 yards in Week 7, though he did have six catches. Given how easily Hill has broken free from defenses of late, another six-catch effort should easily see him go over this projected total.

Evan Engram (NYG – TE): OVER 37.5 Receiving Yards
New York Giants tight end Evan Engram will not have the luxury of usual starting quarterback Daniel Jones throwing him passes, but he still should see plenty of looks from backup Colt McCoy. The Giants figure to trail throughout most of this game, so a negative game script increases Engram’s chances to rack up the yards. A number of check downs to Engram should be in order since McCoy will likely not be asked to throw deep often.

Alvin Kamara (NO – RB): OVER 20.5 Receiving Yards
Alvin Kamara is so dynamic that his projected receiving total is more than many running backs’ rushing total. Kamara has seen just three total targets over the last two games, as the offensive philosophy has completely shifted with Taysom Hill under center. Kamara had just one target in their first meeting with Atlanta two weeks ago, but head coach Sean Payton is a smart guy and will likely adopt a completely new game plan that features Kamara in the passing game this time around.

Jakobi Meyers (NE – WR): OVER 51.5 Receiving Yards
Jakobi Meyers has at least 52 yards receiving in five of his last six games. The Chargers can score in bunches, so Cam Newton and the Patriots will likely need to throw more than usual to keep up. Returning from a seven-game absence, slot cornerback Casey Hayward should shadow Meyers. Thus, if he is not 100%, Meyers should have another productive day given he is arguably Newton’s favorite target of late.

Justin Jefferson (MIN – WR): OVER 68.5 Receiving Yards
In teammate Adam Thielen’s absence last week, Justin Jefferson caught seven of 13 targets for 70 yards and two touchdowns. While many will view Thielen’s return as a hindrance to Jefferson’s upside, he should also take away any double teams the Jaguars’ defense would have thrown at him. Thielen has primarily been a red-zone target of late, but the Vikings have used Jefferson all over the field. He should feast against Jacksonville’s 29th-ranked pass defense that allows 279.5 YPG.

Check out our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the week

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including How to Choose a Sportsbook — or head to more advanced strategy — like Which Sports Are Most Profitable to Bet? — to learn more.

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.