We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the prop bet odds from DraftKings Sportsbook to give you the best prop bet picks. Here are our top-10 picks for Week 16.
View the best NFL prop bets for Week 16 with our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Darren Waller (LV – TE): OVER 55.5 Receiving Yards
Raiders tight end Darren Waller has crushed this projected total in four of the last five games. He has seen 10+ targets in each of the last three games and is by far the team’s biggest threat in the passing game. This low projection was likely the result of the uncertainty of who would be playing quarterback for Las Vegas, but it appears Derek Carr is ready to give it a go after suffering a groin injury in the loss to the Chargers last week. That is a good sign for Waller, as he has seen seven or more targets from Carr in 11 of 14 games this year. Though the Dolphins are the league’s best scoring defense, they rank 18th against the pass allowing 238.1 YPG. Miami’s cornerback tandem of Byron Jones and Xavien Howard is one of the toughest on opposing wide receivers, which makes it even more likely that Carr will look Waller’s way.
Jonathan Taylor (IND – RB): OVER 53.5 Rushing Yards
From Weeks 8-10, it seemed Jonathan Taylor was in the middle of a frustrating timeshare as he had a high of 11 carries and totaled just 61 yards over those three weeks. However, Taylor has clearly established himself as the workhorse of this backfield of late, as he has at least 83 yards rushing and has averaged 103.5 YPG over the last four games. The Steelers defense ranks eighth against the run, but also just allowed the Bengals to run for 152 yards. Pittsburgh’s offense held the ball for less than 28 minutes in that game, and the Colts will similarly look to dominate time of possession. Taylor’s lowest amount of carries in the last four weeks is 13, but he should not need much more than that to surpass this total.
Rob Gronkowski (TB – TE): OVER 33.5 Receiving Yards
Though Rob Gronkowski’s yardage total has not been great the last two weeks, he can look to build off the seven targets he saw against Atlanta’s defense last week. Gronk has seen at least six targets in three of the last four games, though he has surpassed this projected total just once in that span. He has averaged 13.1 YPC this season which ranks fifth-best among 42 qualified tight ends, so as long as he sees a similar amount of targets as he has had in the past he should see some positive regression to the mean as far as yardage goes.
Mitchell Trubisky (CHI – QB): OVER 232.5 Passing Yards
As long as their game against Jacksonville remains somewhat competitive in the second half, Mitchell Trubisky should have no problem surpassing this projected yardage total. He has surpassed this total in three of the last four games, with last week against the Vikings being the only time he did not. The Vikings employ a ball-control style of offense, but Jacksonville’s offense does not tend to stay on the field for lengthy periods of time. Therefore, Trubisky should get plenty of opportunities against a Jaguars secondary that will be without its top two cornerbacks.
Darius Slayton (NYG – WR): OVER 36.5 Receiving Yards
Darius Slayton’s prop bets should see a massive boost as quarterback Daniel Jones looks like he has a great chance to start. Slayton has seen a combined 17 targets in the last two games but has pulled in less than half of those targets for receptions. He will look to build off the momentum of a 74-yard performance against the Browns last week, as that was his highest yardage total in the last four weeks. With the Giants entering the game as big underdogs against the Ravens, a negative game script should work in Slayton’s favor to exceed this projected total.
Tom Brady (TB – QB): UNDER 315.5 Passing Yards
There will be many bettors who will rush to bet the over on Tom Brady’s passing yards this week, citing his 390-yard effort a week ago. However, the Buccaneers buried themselves in a 24-7 hole and Brady attempted 45 passes which were tied for his third-most attempts of the season. Tampa Bay will likely not find themselves trailing by 17 to Detroit, a team that has not won a home game in nine straight tries. Brady has averaged just 6.3 YPA in the first half this season, which ranks third-worst among qualified quarterbacks. In addition, he has thrown for 216 yards or less in two of the last four games, and this game has all the makings of another poor statistical game as the Buccaneers will likely be in a position to take their foot off the gas in the second half.
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA – QB): OVER 232.5 Passing Yards
Outside of last week’s conservative approach against New England, Tua Tagovailoa averaged 306 YPG for the two games prior. Part of the biggest reason for a conservative game plan against New England was how banged up they were at the skill positions, as they played without tight end Mike Gesicki and wide receiver DeVante Parker. Both players appear on the right side of suiting up this week, and Tagovailoa will face a 26th-ranked pass defense will a full complement of weapons. Thus, we should expect much more than the 26 pass attempts that Tua had last week, as the Raiders are much more vulnerable through the air than New England is.
Mike Evans (TB – WR): OVER 57.5 Receiving Yards
Mike Evans has seen his yardage total increase each week over the last four weeks and is coming off a 110-yard day against the Falcons last week. The 110 yards was his second-highest yardage total of the year, and he achieved that total despite seeing just seven targets. Evans has always been Tom Brady’s favorite target in the red zone, but they have been connecting on more deep shots of late. Evans has at least one 29+ yard catch in each of the last three weeks, so it should not take many receptions this week to surpass this total.
Chase Claypool (PIT – WR): OVER 41.5 Receiving Yards
Sometimes the numbers do not tell it all with a receiver like Chase Claypool. He has exceeded this projected total just once over the last three weeks, but it is not for a lack of him being able to beat defenders. His 54-yard effort against the Bengals on Monday night last week was his highest yardage total in the last four weeks, but it could have been an even bigger day if quarterback Ben Roethlisberger allowed plays to develop. Claypool was open down the seam multiple times, but Big Ben had already thrown to another receiver. Claypool has averaged 13.3 fantasy points per game at home this season, which ranks fifth among qualified wide receivers. Look for Claypool to turn in another solid outing against a Colts defense this week that may be more concerned with stopping his fellow receivers.
Jordan Reed (SF – TE): OVER 12.5 Receiving Yards
Jordan Reed’s projected total is significantly impacted by the return of fellow tight end George Kittle this week. However, it is unfair to assume Kittle is in for a full workload after missing the last six games with a foot injury. With a snap count likely, Reed should see enough looks to exceed this low total. He had two catches for 12 yards in Week 1 against Arizona when Kittle was healthy, so it would be fair to assume he could exceed this total as the primary tight end for a majority of the team’s snaps this week.
Check out our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the week
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.