We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the prop bet odds from DraftKings Sportsbook to give you the best prop bet picks. Here are our top-10 picks for Week 15.
View the best NFL prop bets for Week 15 with our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Cam Newton (NE – QB): OVER 163.5 Passing Yards
In what is projected to be the second-lowest scoring game of the week with a total of 41.5 points, the low total in the Patriots-Dolphins matchup has seemed to come at the expense of Cam Newton’s prop total. Newton has surpassed this projected total just once in the last five games and has topped 100 yards passing just once in the last three games. He now faces a Dolphins defense that is second in the league in scoring but just 18th in defending the pass. In their Week 1 matchup when Newton was still getting familiar with a new system and all-new receivers, he threw for 155 yards despite also running a season-high 15 times. Why can’t Newton add nine more passing yards to this total, when he is not likely to run nearly as much as he did in their first matchup?
Nick Mullens (SF – QB): OVER 240.5 Passing Yards
Nick Mullens has surpassed this projected passing total in each of the last five games, despite facing three of the league’s top four stingiest pass defenses in the Rams, Saints, and Washington. By comparison, facing a Cowboys defense that ranks sixth against the pass should seem like a walk in the park. Many teams choose to attack Dallas on the ground as they rank dead-last allowing 162.7 rushing YPG. However, Kyle Shanahan is an aggressive play-caller who likes to air it out no matter the matchup. 49ers pass catchers have averaged 6.3 YAC since Week 9, which is sixth-most in the NFL. The Dallas defense has allowed 5.3 YAC which is tied for fourth-worst in that span. In addition, Dallas has been susceptible to the big play as they have allowed 20+ yards on 10% of opposing teams’ pass attempts since Week 9, which is tied for eighth-worst in the league. There is a lot to like about Mullens’ projections even if they find success on the ground.
Baker Mayfield (CLE – QB): OVER 224.5 Passing Yards
Though the Browns have the league’s third-best rushing attack, that has also helped to open things up in the passing game. Baker Mayfield has thrown for at least 258 yards in three straight games, and head coach Kevin Stefanski’s trust in him seems to grow by the week. Mayfield will benefit from the absence of Giants cornerback James Bradberry, who will miss the game after being placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. The Browns are coming off a physical Monday night game against the Ravens, so perhaps they allow Mayfield to increase his attempted passes for the sixth straight week.
Sam Darnold (NYJ – QB): UNDER 204.5 Passing Yards
The Los Angeles Rams defense has allowed a league-low 6.06 yards per attempt and 3.06 percent touchdown rate, so there is not much to like in this matchup for Sam Darnold. His yardage total has decreased each of the last three weeks, posting a high of 197 yards in that span. With as many negative game scripts as the Jets face, it is a wonder why Darnold cannot capitalize statistically. He has yet to top 30 pass attempts in any of the last five games as their defense struggles to get off the field. With the Rams capable of a ball-control offense with many sustained drives, Darnold may once again not have much of an opportunity to accumulate decent numbers.
Jakobi Meyers (NE – WR): OVER 46.5 Receiving Yards
Despite seeing a lot of Rams shutdown cornerback Jalen Ramsey in coverage last week, Jakobi Meyers was still able to put up 47 receiving yards on five targets. Meyers has topped this projected total in six of the last eight games, as he continues to be efficient despite topping six targets just once in the last five weeks. With head coach Bill Belichick knowing the Dolphin’s defense will be keyed in on stopping the run, look for the Patriots to use a more pass-heavy game plan than they have in recent weeks. As a result, Meyers should be the biggest beneficiary.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC – RB): OVER 38.5 Rushing Yards
The New Orleans Saints set an NFL record this season for the most consecutive games without allowing a 100-yard rusher. Then the Philadelphia Eagles had two players top 100 yards against them, which should alleviate Kansas City’s fears about running the ball against their front. Granted, Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been held under 40 yards rushing in four of his last five games. However, with as much respect as the Saints defense will show Patrick Mahomes in this game, it should open up running lanes for Edwards-Helaire.
Darius Slayton (NYG – WR): OVER 36.5 Receiving Yards
Darius Slayton has topped this projected total just once in the last five games. However, he faces a Browns defense that ranks 20th in the pass allowing 249.0 YPG. The eight targets against the Cardinals last week was promising, and he has seven or more targets in three of his last six games. Cleveland is seemingly involved in shootouts on a weekly basis now, and New York’s offense as a whole will look to get right from a disappointing seven-point effort against Arizona. Slayton should once again be one of the most heavily targeted Giants and is a great buy-low candidate to exceed his projected total.
Justin Jefferson (MIN – WR): OVER 67.5 Receiving Yards
Just five weeks ago, Justin Jefferson torched the Bears secondary for 135 yards on eight catches. While that should also earn him more defensive attention, Chicago will also have their hands full with Adam Thielen who scored two touchdowns on them in that same game. The Bears had relative success against Dalvin Cook in their first matchup, holding him to a season-low 3.2 yards per attempt. If they have similar success this time around, look for Minnesota to get more aggressive than usual which should result in another double-digit target day for Jefferson.
Jared Goff (LAR – QB): OVER 269.5 Passing Yards
Jared Goff is one of the toughest quarterbacks to figure out of late. He has been held under 200 yards in two of his last three games, but in his last four other games, he has topped 300 yards. The Rams are going to score points against the Jets, so whether or not Goff tops this projected total depends on how quickly they get up big and how much head coach Sean McVay wants to continue to lean on the running game. The best bet is that McVay looks to keep running back Cam Akers fresh for the stretch run, as he has carried the ball 50 times over the last two weeks. Thus, look for Goff to be the biggest reason they pile up the points early en route to a big passing day.
Aaron Rodgers (GB – QB): UNDER 295.5 Passing Yards
Though Aaron Rodgers has had plenty of experience playing in cold weather, the fact remains that it is hard to throw a football in the blistering cold. With highs in the low 20s Saturday night, this could be more of a ground and pound game than we are used to from Green Bay. Aaron Jones has averaged 6.1 YPC over his last three games, and the Carolina Panthers are the fourth-worst team against the run since the beginning of last season. With the Packers being favored by 8.5 points, a big second-half lead could also be a reason to lean on the ground game.
Check out our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the week
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.