Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Eagles -2
Total: 49.5

Eagles at Cowboys Betting Matchup

QBs
Jalen Hurts: We knew that Hurts came with a solid floor last week, but no one expected him to throw for 338 yards and three touchdowns and finish as the No. 1 quarterback on the week with 37.8 fantasy points. It’s important to note that he did complete just 54.5 percent of his passes and that volume (44 pass attempts) helped carry him to those totals, but the Eagles have been pass-heavy all year long, so why would that change now? Sure, they’re taking advantage of Hurts’ mobility, as he’s rushed 29 times over the last two weeks for 169 yards and a touchdown, but the pass attempts didn’t suffer with the high play count last week. One thing that bodes well for all players involved in this game is that both the Cowboys (1st) and Eagles (5th) rank top-five in total plays per game, so the volume should be there again. Teams have thrown the ball on just 51.2 percent of plays against the Cowboys, which is the lowest number in the NFL, and it’s led to just 31.9 pass attempts per game. That hasn’t stopped teams from throwing a touchdown on 6.6 percent of attempts, which has amounted to 30 passing touchdowns through 14 games, both of which rank second to only the Jaguars. From an efficiency standpoint, the Cowboys have allowed the third-most fantasy points per actual pass attempt (no rushing). They’ve also allowed a massive 30.9 points per game in general, which ranks as the second-most behind only the Lions. The 280 rushing yards they’ve allowed to quarterbacks ranks as the 13th-most in the league, but that number can vary depending on which quarterbacks a team has played. It should make you feel even better knowing that when they’ve played against mobile quarterbacks, they’ve allowed big production, as Kyler Murray rushed for 74 yards and a touchdown, while Lamar Jackson rushed for 94 yards and a touchdown. There are only a couple of quarterbacks who should be started over Hurts this week, as he offers a rock-solid floor and obviously a high ceiling against a team that’s allowed six different quarterbacks to score 25-plus fantasy points.

Andy Dalton: Since returning from his concussion and COVID, Dalton has been a much better quarterback than you think. He’s completed 113-of-171 pass attempts for 1,097 yards with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. Considering he’s played against Washington, Baltimore, and San Francisco in three of them, I’d say that’s pretty good. He’s finished with at least 15.3 fantasy points in four of those games, with the only exception being Washington. The matchup with the Eagles is not a horrible one, though if there’s one thing to be concerned with, it’s the fact that the Eagles have generated a sack on 8.6 percent of opponent dropbacks this year, which ranks as the second-most, behind only the Steelers. The Cowboys offensive line hasn’t been great considering all the injuries they’ve had to deal with, so expect the Eagles to flood the quarterback. Dalton has a 69.9 QB Rating while under pressure, which is not too bad (ranks 16th among quarterbacks who’ve played 200-plus snaps). One thing that bodes well for all players involved in this game is that both the Cowboys (1st) and Eagles (5th) rank top-five in total plays per game. There have been just four quarterbacks who’ve averaged fewer than 7.03 yards per attempt against the Eagles this year, and those quarterbacks were Lamar Jackson, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins, and Ben DiNucci. Every one of those games were in the first eight weeks of the season. The Eagles have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per actual pass attempt (no rushing included), so if you want to use Dalton in 2QB formats, you should feel pretty good about it, though I probably wouldn’t want to risk it in standard formats.

RBs
Miles Sanders: Jalen Hurts starting may have been the best thing for Sanders, who’s now played 81 and 83 percent of the snaps over the last two weeks. Keep in mind he played just 56-61 percent of snaps the previous three weeks. The play-calling may be questionable for the Eagles this year, but the offensive scheme has certainly opened lanes for Sanders, who’s seen eight-plus defenders in the box just 9.4 percent of the time, which is the fifth-lowest mark in the league. The Cowboys have faced a league-high 27.3 running back carries per game this year, which is miles ahead of any other team, and ultimately what allows us to start guys like Jeff Wilson semi-confidently. There have been five different running backs who’ve been able to crack the 100-yard mark on the ground against the Cowboys, which is made possible by the highly-efficient 4.90 yards per carry they’ve allowed. All in all, running backs have averaged 133.6 rushing yards per game against them. The only team that’s allowed more fantasy points on the ground than the Cowboys defense is the Texans, and you know we attack that matchup all the time. Despite the Cowboys allowing the second-most passing touchdowns in the NFL, they’re one of just two teams who’ve still yet to allow a receiving touchdown to running backs. In fact, production through the air as a whole has been problematic for running backs against the Cowboys. Through 14 games, they’ve allowed just 55 receptions for 336 yards, or just 6.3 PPR points per game. Knowing Sanders has received 31-of-34 carries by the Eagles running backs the last two weeks, he needs to be in lineups as an RB1 with week-winning potential.

Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard: The Cowboys were expecting Elliott to suit up last week, though once inactives were released, he was ruled out with his calf injury. That opened the floodgates for Pollard, who amassed 131 total yards and two touchdowns against the 49ers tough defense that’s allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs this year. At this moment in time, it would probably be better for fantasy purposes if Elliott sat out, as Pollard would have clear-cut value. If Elliott plays, it’s going to be extremely difficult to trust either of them, and based on how close he was to playing last week, my guess is that Elliott plays in this divisional showdown. The 3.69 yards per carry the Eagles have allowed is the second-lowest number in the league, behind only the Bucs. If there’s a glimmer of hope on the ground, it’s that after holding every running back to 81 yards or less over their first nine games, the Eagles have allowed two 100-yard rushers (Nick Chubb and Aaron Jones) in their last five games. Earlier this year, Elliott finished with 73 total yards on 21 touches, though that was with Ben DiNucci under center, which obviously didn’t help his cause. We have seen four different running backs rack up 40-plus receiving yards against the Eagles, which should add appeal to Elliott, but again, we don’t know if they’ll limit his role with his injury/Pollard’s performance last week. Elliott also hasn’t topped 18 receiving yards since Week 6, which doesn’t help. If Elliott suits up, he’s just a back-end RB2/high-end RB3 who comes with more risk than he should. Pollard would likely factor in quite a bit, though nothing is guaranteed, making him a risky RB3/flex-type option.

WRs
Jalen Reagor: Over the two games with Hurts under center, Reagor leads the Eagles wide receivers with 12 targets, though they’ve only netted seven receptions for 95 scoreless yards. Still, it’s very good thing that Hurts is latching onto him as the top target going to a matchup like this. When teams do pass against the Cowboys, they’ve targeted their wide receivers 61.0 percent of the time, which is more than all but four teams. And when those targets come in, production follows, as they’ve allowed a league-high 2.06 PPR points per target on them. Even when you factor in the competition they’ve played, their opponents have averaged 0.33 more PPR points per target against the Cowboys than they have in non-Cowboys games, which is easily the highest mark in the league, as no other team is over 0.19. So, even though receivers are getting 19.4 targets per game against them (21st in NFL), they’re allowing them 12.5 percent more PPR points than they’ve averaged in non-Cowboys games, making it the fourth-best schedule-adjusted matchup for receivers. If we can get six-plus targets for Reagor in this matchup, he’s going to be worth a lot more than how managers currently value him. If you want to play him as a risk/reward WR4 this week, I have zero issues with that.

Greg Ward: He’s seemingly a favorite of Jalen Hurts, as he’s seen 10 targets over the last two weeks, netting six catches for 35 yards and two touchdowns. That’s nothing you’re going to consider a lock in lineups, but some may have considered it. Despite the fact that the Cowboys have seen the 13th-fewest targets to wide receivers, they’ve allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to them. The 2.06 PPR points per target they’ve allowed is the most in the league. Sadly, Ward plays almost all his snaps in the slot, which is likely the toughest matchup on the field. The Cowboys have Jourdan Lewis defending the slot, and he’s allowed just 0.98 yards per snap in his coverage, which ranks as the seventh-lowest number among cornerbacks who’ve played at least 100 snaps in the slot. Ward isn’t a recommended start this week.

Amari Cooper: It’s a shame that one of Cooper’s worst games of the year came during the fantasy playoffs, as it was just the third time all season he’s finished worse than the WR38. He saw just three targets in that game, which make it difficult to produce, regardless of the player. We should expect things to return to normal this week. Football Outsiders has the Eagles as the third-best matchup for No. 1 wide receivers in their DVOA metric. When you look at the competition the Eagles have played and compare it to how they’ve produced against them, it’s good news for Cooper. Receivers have averaged 0.13 more PPR points per target against the Eagles than they do in their non-Eagles matchups, making it the third-best schedule adjusted matchup on a per-target basis. Every wide receiver who’s seen seven or more targets has finished as a top-36 wide receiver against the Eagles. If Darius Slay can get cleared from his concussion for this game (he has), he’ll see Cooper the most. While Slay has been great in years past, he hasn’t looked great with the Eagles, allowing 55-of-72 passing for 700 yards and three touchdowns in his coverage, which is good for a 120.1 QB Rating. Plug Cooper back into lineups as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 in this contest.

Michael Gallup: He suffered a hip injury in the Week 15 win over the 49ers, which has his Week 16 availability in question, so pay attention for updates as the week goes on. Prior to leaving, Gallup hauled in his second touchdown in three games, and has now seen five-plus targets in seven straight games. In fact, since Dalton returned to the lineup in Week 11, Gallup has seen a team-high 35 targets while Cooper has seen 32, and Lamb 31. However, even if Gallup plays, we have to wonder if he’ll be limited as a decoy. The Eagles matchup back in Week 8 netted him 12 targets that amounted to just seven catches for 61 yards, though that was with Ben DiNucci under center. You’d have to assume that Darius Slay shadows Cooper, which would leave Gallup with Kevon Seymour in coverage, a former sixth-round pick who’s only played 83 snaps this year. On the four targets he’s seen, he’s allowed two catches for 68 yards and a touchdown. If (and only if) we see Gallup back to full practice, he can be considered as a semi-risky WR4 in this plus matchup. *Update* He practiced in full all week. 

CeeDee Lamb: The 85 yards he posted in Week 15 were his most since back in Week 5, which is the last game that Dak Prescott played. It also ended a three-game streak where he failed to be a top-50 wide receiver. You also got bonus points if your league rewards special teams touchdowns, as Gallup returned an onside kick for a touchdown. With Michael Gallup potentially out, we could see more targets for Lamb this week, which is good because he struggled a bit in this matchup the last time they played, though that was with Ben DiNucci under center, which was obviously not great. The Eagles have Nickell Robey-Coleman in the slot, a veteran cornerback who was great in the Rams’ offense but has been just mediocre with the Eagles. He’s especially struggled over the last two weeks, allowing 15-of-19 passing for 143 yards and a touchdown in his coverage. Still, there have been just two slot-heavy receivers all year who’ve finished with more than 50 yards against the Eagles. The good news is that they were big-slot receivers like Lamb, as Tyler Boyd caught 10 balls for 125 yards and Cooper Kupp caught five balls for 81 yards, though neither of them scored. He should be considered a mediocre WR3/4 who would get a bump if Gallup misses the game.

TEs
Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz: These two continue to split reps with each other, as Ertz has settled in around 75 percent of the snaps, while Goedert is at 85 percent. They’ve also split the targets with Hurts under center, as Goedert leads them with 14 targets that have netted 8/82/0 while Ertz has turned 10 targets into 4/77/0. Neither are great and they’re no longer must play options. Do the Eagles adjust their gameplan based on what the Cowboys have allowed? Their opponents have targeted tight ends just 16.6 percent of the time, which ranks as the fourth-lowest mark in the league. That’s likely due to the fact that the wide receiver matchups are so good. When tight ends are targeted, they’re hauling in 75.7 percent of them (3rd), while every 10.6 targets net a touchdown (4th). That amounts to 2.05 PPR points per target for the position, which ranks as the sixth-most in the league. But is the scheme the Cowboys are running limiting targets to the position? When these two teams met in Week 8, Ertz was out, while Goedert saw just one target that netted 15 yards. I’ll note that every tight end who has seen five-plus targets against the Cowboys has finished as a top-15 option. Goedert should be considered a low-end TE1 while Ertz is a middling TE2.

Dalton Schultz: It’s been pretty systematic with Schultz ever since Dak Prescott went down for the year, as he’s finished with 22-53 yards in all but one game, which was last week in a tough matchup against the 49ers, though he did sneak out of that game with a touchdown. He hasn’t finished better than the TE10 in any of those games, but also hasn’t finished outside the top-25 tight ends since Week 7. He’s the definition of a high-floor/limited-ceiling streamer. The matchup with the Eagles treated him well back in Week 8 when he caught 6-of-8 targets for 53 yards with Ben DiNucci under center. Extremely similar to Schultz himself, the Eagles matchup has been a high-floor/limited-ceiling matchup (for the most part), as there have been just four tight ends who’ve failed to total at least 33 yards, while just one tight end (George Kittle) has topped 54 yards. When you look at the schedule they’ve played, tight ends are averaging 0.20 more PPR points per target against the Eagles than they are in non-Eagles matchups, making it the seventh-best schedule-adjusted matchup for efficiency. Schultz can be considered a decent high-end TE2 this week.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks -2
Total: 47.5

Rams at Seahawks Betting Matchup

QBs
Jared Goff: Ugh. Just when you think Goff has a “can’t miss” matchup where the run game would struggle, he lets you down. The ground game struggled as we thought it would, but Goff averaged just 6.1 yards per attempt against the Jets, which was lower than any other quarterback against them this season. There have now been nine games this year where Goff has failed to score 17 fantasy points. Why haven’t we written him off yet? Well, the other five games have netted 23-plus fantasy points. It’s worth noting that three of those games came in the first five weeks, so the allure is wearing off. When you look at overall stats, the Seahawks are still allowing the sixth most fantasy points per game as a whole to their opponents, but that number has been rapidly declining over the second half of the season. Volume is the sole reason for success against them at this point, as teams have thrown the ball on a league-high 65.2 percent of plays against them. Sure, the Seahawks have still allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game (20.87) to quarterbacks, but they’ve also faced a massive 42.4 pass attempts per game, which is 5.2 percent more than any other team in the league. Suddenly, they’ve allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per actual pass attempt (no rushing).  Again, that volume they’ve faced has allowed quarterbacks to average 307.4 passing yards per game, but the 7.25 yards per attempt they’ve allowed is essentially the league average. The 3.70 percent touchdown-rate they’ve allowed ranks as the fourth-lowest mark in football. What we’re essentially looking at is a volume-dependent matchup for Goff. It does help that the Seahawks opponents have run a league-high 69.5 plays per game, but in this same matchup (when the Seahawks were playing worse), Goff threw for 302 yards on 37 pass attempts but didn’t throw a single touchdown, netting him just 10.5 fantasy points. In two games against them last year, he finished with 16.1 and 17.9 fantasy points, so the ceiling hasn’t been there. He should be considered a middling QB2 for this game.

Russell Wilson: Since the start of Week 10, Wilson ranks as the No. 15 quarterback in fantasy. Here’s a tidbit from James Bisson, my colleague at FantasyPros: Russell Wilson has 98.6 fantasy points since the start of Week 10. Taysom Hill has 95.1 fantasy points in that same timeframe. Hill didn’t start until Week 11 and wasn’t the starter again in Week 15. Going further, Wilson hasn’t finished better than the QB10 since way back in Week 8. After going against the defense that’s allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to their opponents (Washington), Wilson gets to go against the defense that’s allowed the fewest fantasy points per game. Between quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, the Rams have allowed a league-low 74.1 PPR points per game to them, which is ridiculously low. The Steelers are the only other team who’s allowed fewer than 80.0 points per game. Meanwhile, the Seahawks offense ranks third in points per game. From an efficiency standpoint, you couldn’t have two teams that are more opposite, as the Seahawks have averaged 1.65 PPR points per offensive snap (2nd in NFL), while the Rams have allowed just 1.18 PPR points per offensive snap (lowest in NFL). Just how good is that Rams number? Well, the Broncos offense has averaged 1.20 PPR points per offensive play, so that’s what the Rams opponents have essentially turned into. That’s led to quarterbacks averaging just 13.23 fantasy points per game, which is a league-low. It’s a combination of everything, as they’ve allowed just 213.1 passing yards per game while allowing 15 passing touchdowns and intercepting 13 passes through 14 games. There have been just two quarterbacks all season who’ve finished better than the QB18 against them, and both were in the first six weeks of the season. The 0.340 fantasy points per actual pass attempt is easily the lowest number in the NFL and needs to be broken down to understand how special it is. If a quarterback dropped back and passed the ball 40 times – which is a lot – they’d wind up with 13.6 fantasy points. From an efficiency standpoint, they’ve been 13 percent better than the closest team (Steelers). Wilson struggled against them in Week 10 and it’s likely he struggles again this week. Even a great performance out of him in this game would probably net a low-end QB1 performance, while the median projection is probably around the middling QB2 territory.

RBs
Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown: In case you haven’t heard, Cam Akers is out for this week with a high-ankle sprain. That means we’re back to the split we saw earlier in the year when Henderson was the team’s clear-cut lead back. There were five times he totaled more than 10 touches this season. In those games, he’s totaled at least 68 total yards in every one while producing 19-plus PPR points in three of them. The matchup this week has been somewhat of a mixed bag, as the Seahawks have allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points on the ground to running backs but have also allowed a massive 11.8 PPR points per game through the air alone to running backs, which ranks as the fifth-highest number in the league. There have been just two games this season where an opposing team of running backs has rushed for 100-plus yards against the Seahawks, and while the Rams were not one of them, the three running backs did combine for 99 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. This seems to be a trend for Sean McVay running backs against Pete Carroll’s defense. Take a look at the touchdowns by Todd Gurley (and the trio in 2020) against the Seahawks with McVay as the head coach:

There’s a trend there, right? It doesn’t hurt to know the Seahawks are coming off a game where they allowed 112 total yards and two touchdowns to the combination of J.D. McKissic and Peyton Barber. Henderson should be fresh with just nine touches over the last three games, so feel free to start him as a solid low-end RB2 in this game. Brown hasn’t touched the ball more than eight times since way back in Week 8, though the loss of Akers is surely going to present more opportunities. Oddly enough, Brown scored two of the touchdowns against the Seahawks back in Week 10. He should net 10-plus opportunities in this game, which puts him in the RB4 conversation.

Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde: It hasn’t been a very consistent year for Carson, who’s now finished as an RB1 four times, an RB2 three times, an RB3 two times, and a complete bust once. He watched Hyde break a long run for a touchdown last week, which ended a three-game streak where Carson had found the end zone. The Seahawks have had issues putting points on the board as of late, and it’s crushing the ceiling of Carson. Outside of the game against the Jets, the Seahawks have failed to score more than 23 points in four of their last five games and are now going into a matchup with the Rams, who are one of three defenses who’ve held their opponents to less than 20 points per game. Between running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, the Rams have allowed a league-low 60.9 PPR points per game to them. That’s an insanely-low number. It’s not just wide receivers who’ve struggled against them because from an efficiency standpoint, the Rams have been brutal for running backs as well, allowing the second-fewest PPR points per weighted opportunity, behind only the Saints. The 3.82 yards per carry (7th-fewest) is just the tip of the iceberg, because they’ve allowed a rushing touchdown just once every 36.0 carries (10th-most) and have allowed just 1.32 PPR points per target (6th-fewest) in the passing game.  Even you combine rushing and receiving, the Rams allow just 114.4 total yards per game to running backs, which is the seventh-lowest mark in the league. There have been just five running backs who’ve topped 13.8 PPR points against them this year, which highlights just how tough it’s going to be for Carson, who’s seemingly been capped at 17 touches since returning from injury. We also can’t forget that the Seahawks finally got Rashaad Penny back into the lineup last week, which adds even more potential for stolen touches. Carson still fits into the mid-to-low-end RB2 discussion because of how efficient he is, but there’s certainly risk in this matchup. In what was a competitive game last week (we’re expecting this one to be as well), Hyde netted just four touches, so he’s not an option.

WRs
Robert Woods: It’s good to know that despite Goff’s horrendous performance in Week 15 that Woods could walk away with 106 total yards and a touchdown, finishing as the No. 7 wide receiver on the week. It was the third time in the last seven games where he finished as a top-10 receiver. A large part of that has to do with volume, as he’s seen at least eight targets in six of the last seven games, including three games with 11-plus targets. Oddly enough, the one game in there where he didn’t see those eight-plus targets was against the Seahawks, the team that’s faced a ridiculous 26.4 wide receiver targets per game. Of the 81.3 PPR points per game the Seahawks have allowed to skill-position players, wide receivers have accounted for 55.3 percent of them, which is the second-highest mark in the NFL. Wide receivers have still generated the most targets (369), receptions (255), yards (2,957), and PPR points (628.7) against the Seahawks, though those numbers have not been climbing much as of late. In fact, the Seahawks are the No. 1 team against wide receivers over the last four weeks, allowing just 42 receptions for 360 yards with no touchdowns. How is that possible? Well, it certainly helps that they played against Dwayne Haskins, Sam Darnold, Colt McCoy, and Carson Wentz in that period. You’d actually have to go back to Week 9 to find the last time the Seahawks have allowed a wide receiver touchdown. Woods is going to see a lot of Shaquill Griffin in coverage this week, who has allowed six touchdowns in his coverage this year, though he’s been playing lights out over the last six games, allowing just 11-of-20 passing for 52 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage. He didn’t play the last time these two teams met, though Woods still had some issues, catching five passes for just 33 scoreless yards. You’re not sitting Woods, but you should dial back expectations with the improved play of the Seahawks defense as of late. He should be considered a middling WR2 this week.

Cooper Kupp: It’s been a rough season for Kupp, as he’s now finished as a top-24 wide receiver twice over his last 10 games. In the two games where he did, he saw 20 and 13 targets, both numbers that are typically not going to happen. He’s actually seen just five targets in three of his last four games, which will certainly limit his potential. The matchup with the Seahawks used to be one we looked forward to, but not so much anymore. Wide receivers have seen 62.1 percent of the pass attempts against the Seahawks, which ranks behind only the Titans. That hasn’t allowed to many touchdowns, though. They’re allowing a receiver touchdown once every 28.4 targets, which ranks as the fifth-least often. In fact, they’ve gone six straight games without allowing a wide receiver touchdown. Kupp’s matchup in the slot isn’t a good one, as it appears the Seahawks have found their solution there with Ugo Amadi. He was their fourth-round pick last year who’s stepped into a full-time role this year and has allowed just 35-of-48 passing for 322 scoreless yards in his slot coverage this year. The two biggest games the Seahawks allowed to slot-heavy wide receivers were back in Weeks 1 and 2 to Russell Gage and Julian Edelman. Since that time, the biggest performance was Larry Fitzgerald‘s eight catches for 62 yards. Kupp looks a bit more like a high-end WR3 than the WR2 you thought you were drafting.

D.K. Metcalf: If you didn’t watch the Seahawks game last week, Metcalf appeared to tweak something early in that game while trying to stretch for a touchdown. He came down awkwardly, and though he returned to the game, he needs to be at his best for this week’s game. I don’t think it’s a coincidence he finished with just five catches for 43 yards in that game. We should be paying attention to his practice participation as the week goes on. Metcalf has said he’ll use comments as motivation, and he’s going to get plenty of them this week, because Jalen Ramsey is going to talk. Despite covering No. 1 wide receivers all year, Ramsey has allowed just 0.49 yards per snap in coverage, which is the third-lowest mark in the league. It’s not like it’s much better on Darious Williams‘ side of the field, as he ranks 12th while allowing just 0.80 yards per snap. The Rams haven’t allowed the deep ball this year, as evidenced by the league-low 10.48 yards per reception and 6.96 yards per target to wide receivers, which are both league-lows. Ramsey himself has allowed just 4.81 yards per target in his coverage. The last time they met, Metcalf finished with a season-low two catches for 28 yards. Look, you’re never going to bench Metcalf, but you should be dialing back expectations against Ramsey and company into high-end WR2 territory.

Tyler Lockett: The nightmare season for Lockett continued last week, as he finished outside the top 40 wide receivers for the eighth time in the last 11 games, including each of the last four games. He hasn’t topped 67 yards since Week 7, while scoring just one touchdown in that time. He did see nine targets the last time they played the Rams, which led to him finishing with five catches for 66 scoreless yards, which was his fifth-best game of the year. Teams have targeted their wide receivers on just 54.2 percent of pass attempts against the Rams this year, the third-lowest mark in all of football. Even when targeted, the Rams have allowed a league-low 1.52 PPR points per target to wide receivers. The lack of efficiency hasn’t come from competition, either. Wide receivers have averaged 0.21 fewer fantasy points per target against the Rams than they have in non-Rams games, which still makes it the worst schedule-adjusted matchup. If there’s one positive for Lockett, it’s that the weakest link in the Rams secondary is Troy Hill, which is the one he’ll see most of the time. Hill has allowed 57-of-83 passing for 545 yards and one touchdown, which is good for an 80.6 QB Rating. Again, it’s not great, but it’s better than going against Jalen Ramsey and Darious Williams. Of the 14 wide receivers who’ve posted double-digit PPR points against the Rams, five of them were slot-heavy receivers, which puts Lockett in the WR3 territory. He does have a better matchup than Metcalf, so if you’re looking for a reason to play Lockett in a DFS tournament lineup, that’s it.

TEs
Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee: We’ve seen Higbee targeted in-between 4-6 times in 9-of-13 games this year, which isn’t bad, though it kind of stinks to know that six targets is his ceiling. It’s also limited his floor a bit, as he’s finished with fewer than 35 yards in 7-of-13 games. It’s even worse with Everett, who’s actually had a seven- and nine-target game, but he’s finished with 9-44 yards in each of his last nine games. If we were able to morph these two into one body, we’d have a hell of an option. Onto the next issue: Tight ends have seen just a 16.3 percent target share against the Seahawks this year, the second-lowest number in the league. It didn’t seem to affect the Rams tight ends too much when they played in Week 10 where they combined for nine targets, five receptions, and 87 yards. Again, that’s combined, which doesn’t do a whole lot for us streamers. Unless you’ve seen 10-plus targets against the Seahawks (two tight ends have), you haven’t finished with more than four receptions or 64 yards against them. It’s tough to attack either one of these guys as a streamer, but if there were one, it’d be Higbee, whose arrow has been trending up.

Will Dissly and Jacob Hollister: There is no system we can use to predict which of these two tight ends will see targets, which is evidenced by this chart:

Those are each player’s targets since Greg Olsen went down with his injury. The only consistent is the fact that Hollister has received at least two targets in every game, which doesn’t do a whole lot for streamers. And when you see that just three tight ends have finished with double-digit points against the Rams, you shouldn’t feel pressured to choose either of them.

Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers -3.5
Total: 56

Titans at Packers Betting Matchup

QBs
Ryan Tannehill: It’s good to see the Titans take advantage of the plus matchups they’ve had, especially when their opponents are selling out to try and stop the run. Tannehill continues to play efficient football, completing nearly 80 percent of his passes for 273 yards and three touchdowns through the air, with another 21 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Just how good has Tannehill been? Both A.J. Brown and Corey Davis rank in the bottom-12 wide receivers when it comes to average separation at target, yet they’ve both been highly efficient this year (Davis 11.4 yards per target, Brown 10.3 yards per target). That comes from Tannehill. The only other team that has two receivers in the bottom-12 are the Giants (Darius Slayton and Golden Tate) and we know how that’s worked out. The downside to the matchup against the Packers this week is that they’re a team who’ve forced their opponents to be efficient if they want to score fantasy points, as they’ve averaged a league-low 60.4 plays per game against them. The Titans themselves have run just 64.7 plays per game, but still rank No. 2 in the NFL for total yards, while they’re tied with the Packers for the most offensive touchdowns (55) and tied with the Chiefs for most points (31.1 per game). If you look at the efficiency allowed by the Packers, they’ve actually allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per play. There have been just three quarterbacks (Mitch Trubisky, Tom Brady, Jake Luton) all season who’ve averaged less than 7.18 yards per attempt against the Packers, while seven quarterbacks have averaged 8.00 or more yards per attempt, but there’s been just one quarterback who’s topped 39 pass attempts, so their numbers have been kept in check. In the end, with the limited snaps, opposing quarterbacks have averaged 1.2 fewer fantasy points per game against the Packers than they do versus their season average. If Tannehill can get past 30 pass attempts, he’s going to deliver a solid fantasy performance. The best thing for him would be the Titans jumping out to an early lead, which would force the Packers to not play so slow, therefore increasing the scoring potential. Tannehill should be considered a mid-to-low-end QB1.

Aaron Rodgers: It was an unfortunate time for Rodgers to have one of those 2019-type performances against the Panthers. That game was just the third time all season where Rodgers scored fewer than 21.7 fantasy points. Still, you can’t pretend that his 18.3 fantasy points in that game buried your fantasy team. There are just seven defenses in the league who’ve allowed 100-plus fantasy points per game to their opponents this year, and the Titans are one of them. Volume plays a part in that, as they’ve faced 68.0 plays per game, which is the second-most in the league. Teams have chosen to call a pass play on 60.8 percent of plays against them, which has led to 40.2 pass attempts per game (2nd-most). That’s helped contribute to them allowing the fourth-most passing touchdowns (29) this year. The biggest problem for the Titans this year has been pressure, as they’ve generated a sack on a league-low 2.42 percent of dropbacks. By comparison, there’s no other team who’s below 3.08 percent. Rodgers has been the best quarterback in the league when kept clean, averaging 8.48 yards per attempt while throwing 35 touchdowns on 383 attempts from a clean pocket. For those counting at home, that’s a 9.14 percent touchdown-rate. We’ve watched five different quarterbacks throw for 300-plus yards against the Titans, including four quarterbacks who’ve thrown three-plus touchdowns. In fact, 9-of-14 quarterbacks have finished as top-16 options against them, highlighting just how good the floor is. And when you factor in their schedule, it gets even better. Opponents have averaged 13.7 percent more fantasy points against the Titans than they have in their non-Titans games. This isn’t a perfect science, but knowing Rodgers averages 23.7 fantasy points per game, that would amount to 27.0 fantasy points against the Titans (on average). He’s a must-play QB1.

RBs
Derrick Henry: He’s a difference maker, plain and simple. NFL’s NextGenStats how many defenders are in the box, how many yards before contact the running back had, and how many tackles they broke. Henry has totaled 303 yards more than the average running back would’ve, which is behind only Nick Chubb. Similar to last year, Henry is on fire down the stretch and has finished with 100-plus rushing yards in five of his last six games, including four of them with 133-plus yards. When opponents score fantasy points against the Packers, it’s typically via the running back position, as a league-high 38.9 percent of the production they’ve allowed to skill-position players has gone to running backs. The part that should be interesting is that the Packers have only faced 20.6 carries per game by running backs. We all know Henry is getting volume, right? Well, when you look at efficiency, the Packers have allowed a sliver more than the Lions have in fantasy points per opportunity (1.003 PPR points per opportunity) but have faced 49 fewer touches than the Lions have, suppressing their overall numbers allowed. We just watched Henry tag that Lions defense for 147 yards and a touchdown. The downside to Henry is that he’s not utilized in the passing game (19 receptions on the year), which is where the Packers have been burned the most with running backs, allowing a league-high 179.5 PPR points through the air. You’re obviously playing Henry as an RB1, but the hope should be that the Titans jump out to a lead early, as the Packers will drain every second off the clock if they’re ahead, limiting the potential impact by Henry and company.

Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams: The Packers chose the right week to give Jones more than 18 touches, eh? The 23 touches he had in that game were a season-high, and he rewarded them with 158 total yards and a touchdown. It certainly didn’t hurt that Williams suffered a quad injury and didn’t return to the game. This could be a coincidence, but Jones was averaging 15.1 touches per game from Week 6 through Week 15 last year, but then saw that number jump to 25 and 27 touches in Weeks 16 and 17. Maybe Matt LaFleur has kept him fresh for the stretch run? The matchup against the Titans is a great one. Not only are opponents averaging 68.0 plays per game against them, which allows for tons of touches, but they’re also allowing efficiency. When you factor in weighted opportunity, the Titans have allowed the sixth-most points per opportunity (carry or target). Of the 53 running backs who’ve totaled 100-plus touches this year, Jones ranks 10th in points per weighted opportunity, so this matchup could net massive results. Through 14 games, the Titans have allowed 10 different running backs to finish as the RB14 or better. Even when you factor in the competition they’ve played, the Titans rank as the sixth-best matchup for running backs in adjusted-schedule rank. Knowing Williams has missed practice twice this week already, it seems that we’re looking at another big workload for Jones, who’s a high-end RB1 for the week. Williams is obviously not someone you’re aiming to play, as he may not suit up at all. *Update* Williams has been ruled as doubtful for this game. 

WRs
A.J. Brown: It seems like Brown has been nicked up in every game over the last month, though he continually overcomes that, and did so again in Week 15 when he caught a touchdown late in the game. Over the last five games, he’s averaged 80.6 yards and has scored in four of them, so the injuries aren’t hampering him too much. After he led the NFL in yards after the catch (8.8) his rookie season, Brown is out to prove that it was no fluke, as his 6.8 yards after the catch this year ranks third among receivers with 50-plus targets. According to NFL’s NextGenStats, he should be averaging just 3.8 yards after the catch based on how close defenders have been to him. He’s straight-up sick with the ball in his hands. Many will wonder if Jaire Alexander will shadow him, but the answer to that is likely “no.” Alexander has been playing at LCB for over a month despite some situations that seemed like he would shadow, and knowing Corey Davis is playing well, they can’t just ignore him. Because of that, Brown will see Kevin King about 60 percent of the time. King is someone who’s been very hit-or-miss throughout his NFL career, including this year, allowing 25-of-38 passing for 402 yards and a touchdown in his coverage. That’s 10.6 yards per target, while he’s also allowed 5.0 yards after the catch. He certainly has the better matchup of the Titans wide receivers, unless the Packers do have Alexander shadow him, which seems unlikely. You’re playing Brown as a WR1 no matter what, but that little change can make a difference in his ceiling.

Corey Davis: As it turns out, Davis’ lackluster Week 14 performance was a fluke, as he walked back into fantasy managers’ hearts in Week 15 with his four-catch, 110-yard, one-touchdown performance. It should’ve been two touchdowns, but Tannehill flat-out overthrew him in the end zone where there was no defender in sight. The Packers secondary has played phenomenal this year, especially when you factor in the level of competition they’ve played. Wide receivers have averaged 0.12 fewer PPR points per target versus the Packers than they have in all their non-Packers matchups, making it the fifth-toughest matchup from an efficiency standpoint. Even worse is that Davis will see Jaire Alexander in coverage about 60 percent of the time. Some will wonder if Alexander will shadow A.J. Brown, but he hasn’t shadowed since back in Week 8, so we shouldn’t plan for that. The reason it’s important is due to the fact that he’s allowed just 0.68 yards per snap in his coverage, which is the sixth-lowest mark among cornerbacks. In the end, the Packers have allowed just 11 wide receivers to finish as top-36 options through 14 games, so it’s going to be tough for two wide receivers to finish in that territory. Davis has done enough to warrant a WR3 start regardless, but you may want to lower expectations.

Davante Adams: It finally happened. Adams had a game with fewer than 18.1 PPR points for the first time since back in Week 6. It’s extremely unfortunate that it came during the fantasy playoffs, but these things happen to the best of ’em. Still, in games Adams has played to the end (11 of them), he’s averaged 11.5 targets per game, so when you add in his efficiency, he’s a no-brainer WR1. Wide receivers have seen a league-leading 62.5 percent of the targets against the Titans, so it’s obviously a secondary that’s welcoming for wide receivers. They’ve also allowed a robust 16.6 receptions per game to them (2nd-most), which certainly bodes well for Adams, who has averaged 8.2 receptions per game on his own. They don’t have a shadow cornerback who will follow Adams around, so they’ll essentially get to pick-and-choose their battles. There have been a ridiculous 16 wide receivers who’ve finished with 15-plus PPR points against the Titans, with eight of them topping 20 PPR points. Adams will get back on track as a WR1 this week.

Allen Lazard: He saw a solid six targets in last week’s matchup, which tied his most since coming back from his core injury, though he’s still yet to top 56 yards in a game in his five games back in the lineup. He feels like a Keelan Cole-type start right now, though his quarterback has the upside to go off at any point, making him more valuable, but that’s the range we’re talking about. Wide receivers have seen a massive 25.1 targets per game against the Titans (2nd-most), which has led to them allowing the third-most fantasy points, but they’re actually an above-average defense from an efficiency standpoint, allowing just 7.56 yards per target (6th-fewest) and 1.69 PPR points per target (8th-fewest). Here’s an interesting part that you should know. Based on the competition they’ve played, wide receivers have actually averaged 0.08 fewer PPR points per target against the Titans than they have in non-Titans games. This all comes back to volume making up for a lot of that. He does have what might be the toughest cornerback matchup talent-wise with Desmond King in the slot, though the transition to the Titans hasn’t been as easy as King would’ve liked. Since joining the Titans in Week 9, he’s allowed 21-of-28 passing for 249 yards and a touchdown in his coverage, good for a 113.5 QB Rating. Lazard hasn’t done anything to deserve a locked-in starter, but he can be considered as a WR4 in what’s been a good volume game for wide receivers.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: His performances over the last four weeks have included three zero-catch games, while there’s a six-catch, 85-yard, one-touchdown game sandwiched in-between. That’s what you’re risking when you play Valdes-Scantling. In the end, he has just four games this year where he’s scored double-digit PPR points. He has more games with fewer than 2.0 PPR points. What you need out of him is the deep ball, and the Titans have allowed 43 pass plays of 20-plus yards this year, which is right around the league average. When you look at the receptions that the Titans have allowed to wide receivers, they’ve gone for an average of 11.47 yards per reception, which is the fourth-lowest mark in football. In the end, there’s too much risk to recommend Valdes-Scantling during the fantasy playoffs. Sure, he can catch a long bomb for a touchdown, but we can say that about plenty of receivers.

TEs
Jonnu Smith: He saw a “massive” five targets against the Lions last week, which should make fantasy enthusiasts happy. I’m joking when I say massive, though to Smith, it really is a lot. It was just the third time in his last nine games where he’s seen more than four targets. Not only does Smith not get targeted very often, but when he does, it’s just 5.5 yards down the field, which is the third-lowest mark among tight ends, so he’s left creating everything after the catch. Teams haven’t targeted their tight ends much against the Packers and that’s led to a lack of production. Of the production the Packers have allowed to their opponents’ skill-position players, which isn’t much, tight ends have accounted for just 13.8 percent of it, which is tied for the third-lowest mark in the league. It doesn’t help that they’ve averaged just 5.9 targets per game, which is tied for the fourth-fewest in football. All in all, there have been just five tight ends who’ve seen more than four targets against them, so it’s tough to say Smith will get into that territory. When targeted, they average a pedestrian 7.53 yards per target, while scoring a touchdown every 20.8 targets, so it’s not an easy matchup regardless. Smith is just a middling TE2 who is more touchdown dependent than most.

Robert Tonyan: Another week, another touchdown. He’s now seen 55 targets on the season and just six of those passes have hit the ground, so if you’re projecting him for five catches, you might as well project him for five receptions. He’s averaged 4.3 yards of separation at target this year, which is head and shoulders above any other tight end in the league (George Kittle is next at 4.0). Maybe he learned something from Kittle as his roommate? It’s true, he lived with Kittle this offseason. Tight ends have received a league-low 16.2 percent target share against the Titans this year, as wide receivers have hogged a ton of the targets. When they are targeted, they’re racking up a 74.7 percent catch-rate (4th-highest), 8.27 yards per target (3rd-highest), and a touchdown every 13.0 targets (10th-most often). There have been seven tight ends who’ve seen five-plus targets against the Titans, and every single one of them scored at least 11.0 PPR points and finished as a top-13 tight end. That’s a number Tonyan has seen in four of his last five games. Knowing this game has one of the highest totals on the slate, Tonyan should have a good shot to keep his touchdown streak alive. He’s a plug-and-play TE1.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Spread: Bills -6.5
Total: 45.5

Bills at Patriots Betting Matchup

QBs
Josh Allen: His confidence is sky-high, and he was rolling during the Week 15 win over the Broncos while completing 70 percent of his passes for 359 yards and two touchdowns, which would’ve been enough on its own, but he added 33 yards and two touchdowns on the ground for good measure, carrying fantasy teams on his back. He’s now scored 26-plus fantasy points in four of his last six games, which is just massive. Will the party come to a close this week? The Patriots have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to their opponents, which partially stems from the fact that they’ve run just 60.6 plays per game, the second-lowest number in the league. Those lack of plays have led to a league-low 420 pass attempts against them (30.0 per game), which is 5.8 percent lower than any other team in the league. Quarterbacks have averaged just 15.5 fantasy points per game against them (third-fewest) because of that, but it certainly helps to know that Stephon Gilmore will miss this game. It’s still noteworthy that the Patriots have allowed just 176.5 fantasy points through the air alone this year, which amounts to just 12.6 fantasy points, and ranks behind only the Rams. There have been three games that the Patriots have played without Gilmore this year; here are the stats from those games:

That’s right, the first time these two teams played, Gilmore was out. It’s odd to see him throw the ball just 18 times in that game, but if you go to the games these two teams played last year, Allen threw the ball 26 and 28 times, so the volume has been extremely low, which is concerning. To be fair, Allen is throwing the ball much more this year, but that doesn’t explain the 18 pass attempts in Week 8. He was also in the middle of a “mini slump” during that time, so maybe that’s part of it. Allen has been firing on all cylinders as of late, so you kind of have to play him as a middling QB1, though there are a few safer options out there.

Cam Newton: We’re now heading into Week 16 and Cam Newton still has just five passing touchdowns on the year. His rushing totals had been keeping him on the fantasy radar but now that he’s finished with fewer than 12.5 fantasy points in three of his last four games, that floor is gone. Now that the Patriots are completely out of the playoff race, you have to wonder if the Patriots will have Newton on a short leash where they just want to see a little bit more of Jarrett Stidham before drafting a quarterback in 2021. It really doesn’t matter to fantasy players, as you’re not considering either of them as streaming options against this Bills defense that’s stepped up as of late. If there’s one position that the Bills struggle with, it’s tight ends, and the Patriots don’t even utilize theirs. Over the last four weeks, the Bills have allowed just 5.94 yards per attempt to the combination of Drew Lock, Ben Roethlisberger, Nick Mullens, and Justin Herbert. The only one who finished with more than 14.2 fantasy points was Mullens, so it’s clearly not a good time to be going against them. If there’s any sliver of hope, it’s that we’ve seen five different quarterbacks total 36-plus rushing yards against them, including Newton who rushed for 54 yards and a touchdown back in Week 8. It’s not like you’re considering him in standard formats, but even in 2QB formats, it’s a little risky considering they could decide to put Stidham in the game. Clearly, it’s a less-than-ideal situation, but if you’re debating him, you’re probably not in an ideal spot.

RBs
Zack Moss and Devin Singletary: The split kind of worked out the way we thought last week, and Moss had more value until Singletary scored in the fourth quarter. It’s worth noting that Singletary did out-snap Moss 39 to 34, which is a good sign for Singletary’s floor in a game that was a blowout. It also helps that when Singletary is on the field, teams aren’t respecting the run, as he’s seen eight-plus defenders on a league-low 4.4 percent of his carries. Still, you can’t like him too much, as he’s failed to top 14 touches in five of the last six games. The Patriots have really struggled to stop the run as of late, and even looking at what they’ve done on the year, running backs have accounted for 37.2 percent of the production by skill-position players against them, which ranks behind only the Packers and Lions. Over the last four weeks, the Patriots have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs while allowing 590 yards and three touchdowns on 112 carries (5.27 yards per carry) on the ground. The crazy part is that no running back has totaled more than four catches or 36 yards through the air against the Patriots all season, which does hurt Singletary’s role more than it does Moss’. Given the near 50/50 split between these two backs, I’ll say that Moss is the option whose skill-set makes the most sense this week because he gets most of the goal-line work, though Singletary likely comes with the higher floor with his work in the passing game. Both are in the mid-to-low-end RB3 territory.

Damien Harris, Sony Michel, and James White: The Patriots were without their top running back last week, though Michel filled in quite nicely, totaling 74 yards on just 10 carries against the Dolphins. Unfortunately, that doesn’t net a whole lot of fantasy points, as the lack of volume in this offense is a glaring issue for all running backs, especially since Newton steals quite a few of the goal-line touches. The lack of threat through the air doesn’t help them, either. As of this moment, we don’t know if Harris will play, though the Patriots are eliminated from the playoffs, so they could choose to play it safe with him. Quick note on Harris: It should come as no surprise that he’s right near the league lead in rush attempts with eight-plus defenders in the box, as their opponents have stacked the box on a massive 39.4 percent of his carries. The matchup with the Bills isn’t a bad one for running backs, and Harris showed that when the two teams met in Week 8 when he rushed for 102 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries. Even if you go back with Michel, he has had success against Sean McDermott’s defense, rushing for 275 yards in three games. They’re a slightly above average matchup for running backs, allowing 4.42 yards per carry and a touchdown every 25.8 carries, which is the territory that affects Michel and Harris. They’ve allowed the ninth-most fantasy points on the ground to running backs this year, though the concern with this backfield is gamescript, as the Patriots are full touchdown underdogs even while at home. There have been four running backs who’ve topped 61 rushing yards against the Bills. Each of those running backs were either on teams that won, or teams that lost by just three points in a close game. It’s tough seeing the Patriots keeping this game close, making Michel just an RB3 even if Harris sits this game out. If Harris plays, he’d be a low-end RB3 while Michel would slide back into RB4 territory. Nothing changed for White with Harris out of the lineup, as he still played sub-50 percent of the snaps and received just six touches. He’s nothing more than a low-upside RB4, even in PPR formats.

WRs
Stefon Diggs: He now has double-digit receptions in four of his last five games. No, I didn’t say targets… I said receptions. He’s sitting at 111 receptions with two games to play. As crazy as it sounds, that’s the 37th-highest number of all-time. He’ll make it inside the top-10 if he finishes with just 11 receptions over the next two games combined. The news that Stephon Gilmore would miss the rest of the season was huge for Diggs, as he was the one who’d be covering the star wide receiver. There have been three games that the Patriots were without Gilmore this year, and in those games, the trio of Jason McCourty, J.C. Jackson, and Jonathan Jones combined to allow 23-of-40 passing for 344 yards and four touchdowns in their coverage, and that included a game with the Jets wide receivers. Oddly enough, Diggs was part of that sample, and though Allen threw the ball just 18 times in that game, Diggs still finished with six catches for 92 yards. Diggs is a locked-in WR1.

John Brown and Gabriel Davis: He was practicing for much of last week, leading many to believe he’d play, but the Bills ultimately chose to keep him sidelined for another game. Given he’ll have another nine days to prepare for this game, he should be good to go, though the Bills are already locked into the playoffs, so they may decide to take it easy. I cannot confidently recommend either of these receivers right now without more news. Once we have clarification on whether or not Brown will play, I’ll come back and update.

Cole Beasley: With John Brown out of the lineup, Beasley has enjoyed double digit targets in each of the last three games. He’s also topped 100 yards in three of his last five games, something that we aren’t really used to with the slot receiver. Can he continue his hot streak in Week 16? The last time these two teams met, Beasley finished with a season-low two catches for 24 yards. “Well, that’s no good.” Correct, however, Josh Allen threw the ball just 18 times in that game, so there wasn’t a whole lot of volume to produce. It was really an outlier on the year, as Allen has thrown at least 35 pass attempts in 9-of-14 games, while that Patriots game was the only time he threw the ball fewer than 24 times. The Patriots slot cornerback is Jonathan Jones, and he’s been targeted every 4.5 snaps in coverage, which is more often than any other cornerback in the league. Even better news is that Beasley beat this defense (that was much better) last year with performances of 7/75/0 and 7/108/0, so it’s not the defense that’s the problem. The biggest concern in this game is lack of competition on the other side of the ball, leading to fewer pass attempts by the Bills, though Beasley remains in the mid-to-low-end WR3 territory.

Jakobi Meyers: Despite Newton throwing for just 209 yards in last week’s game, Meyers was able to pop back up on the fantasy radar with seven catches for 111 yards. He’s still yet to score a touchdown on the season, but he has seen 27 targets over the last four games, which brings him into consideration for those who are desperate at the wide receiver position. The Bills haven’t been the shutdown defense that some thought they were going to be in 2020, but they’ve been good against wide receivers for the most part. Of the production they’ve allowed to skill-position players, wide receivers have accounted for just 46.1 percent of it, which is the second-lowest mark in the league. The 1.67 PPR points per target they’ve allowed to them ranks as the sixth-lowest mark in the league. If there’s a consolation for Meyers, it’s that he plays most of his snaps in the slot, which is away from the talented Tre’Davious White, who doesn’t travel into that area of the field. That’s why we’ve seen eight slot-heavy wide receivers finish with 10.7 or more PPR points this year, including two of them (Jamison Crowder, Cooper Kupp) who scored more than 20 PPR points. The last time these two teams met, Meyers finished with six catches for 58 yards, and that was before he started playing in the slot extremely heavily. If there’s one Patriots receiver to consider, it’s Meyers, but he remains in the WR4 territory with Newton under center.

TEs
Dawson Knox: We talked last week about Knox’s increasing role in the offense, as he’s been playing more and more snaps. His percentage did fall last week, though gamescript could’ve had something to do with that. Still, Knox saw four targets and turned them into 36 yards and a touchdown. He’s now seen at least four targets four of his last five games, including each of his last three. He’s still yet to top 36 yards on the year and that’s despite Josh Allen playing as well as he has. The Patriots are also not a matchup you want to associate yourself with, as they’ve allowed the third-fewest PPR points per game (9.1) to the tight end position. We know yardage is an issue for Knox, so what about touchdowns? The Patriots have allowed a league-low one touchdown on 85 targets this season. On top of that, you have Football Outsiders ranking the Patriots as the third-toughest matchup in their DVOA metric. You shouldn’t be streaming Knox this week.

Dalton Keene: The Patriots tight end position is practically non-existent, as they’ve combined for 16 receptions, 212 yards, and one touchdown… on the entire season. You aren’t in the fantasy championship if you’re contemplating a Patriots tight end.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

Spread: Saints -6.5
Total: 52

Vikings at Saints Betting Matchup

QBs
Kirk Cousins: He’s quietly had one of the best fantasy floors among quarterbacks over the last month and a half. Did you know he’s scored at least 17.1 fantasy points in each of the last six games? I’m also guessing that with them mathematically eliminated from the playoff race that they ease up on Dalvin Cook‘s workload. They’ve been shifting more towards the pass anyway, as Cousins has thrown 35-plus pass attempts in each of the last four games. Does that mean he’s playable in Week 16? Well, not exactly. The Saints have not been a team to attack in fantasy matchups, as the 81.3 fantasy points per game they’ve allowed to opposing offenses ranks as the sixth-lowest number in the league. Even breaking it down to efficiency, they’ve allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points per offensive play (1.30). It might actually be worse than that, as they’ve been a different team since their bye week. Here are the numbers they’ve allowed to quarterbacks before/after their bye in Week 6.

While Cousins has been one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league, the Saints have held opponents to just a 61.1 percent completion-rate this year, which is behind only the Steelers. We know Cousins is a pocket passer with almost no mobility, which is a problem considering the Saints bring the second-most pressure in the league and haven’t allowed a quarterback to average more than 7.0 yards per attempt since back in Week 7 (includes Patrick Mahomes‘ 5.4 yards per attempt last week). When you look at the quarterbacks who’ve had success against the Saints (eight of them have scored at least 19 fantasy points), you notice that seven of them have scored three touchdowns, and just two of them have come since Week 7. You can find a streamer with a higher floor than Cousins.

Drew Brees: What we saw in Week 15 could’ve been Brees knocking some rust off, as he didn’t complete a pass until the second quarter (started 0-for-6). The matchup against the Chiefs is a lot tougher than most realize but Brees did manage to pull things together and rally for 234 yards and three touchdowns to salvage a decent fantasy day. Still, if you watched that game, you started getting the feelings of Peyton Manning during his final year with the Broncos. Brees has now failed to crack 7.0 yards per attempt in five of his last six games, though a matchup with the Vikings could be part of the cure. They’ve allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, though it’s not as bad as it sounds. If you were to remove rushing production from quarterbacks, the Vikings have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to the position, allowing them to average 7.58 yards per attempt and a touchdown on 5.60 percent of their throws, which are both above the league average. They’ve also struggled to generate any pressure with their front seven, as they rank 28th in average pressure rate. While kept clean in the pocket, Brees has a 115.1 QB Rating, which ranks as the 10th-best mark in the league. The issue quarterbacks have run into recently against the Vikings is volume, as just one of the last five quarterbacks they’ve played has topped 36 attempts, including just 23 pass attempts by Tom Brady and 21 pass attempts by Mitch Trubisky the last two weeks, who are both on two pass-heavy teams. The thing you want to cling to is the fact that the Saints are projected for 29.3 points in this game, which means good things for fantasy football. We can’t go all-in on Brees, but on the surface, he should be a decent high-end QB2 for this game.

RBs
Dalvin Cook: After tallying another 29 touches against the Bears in Week 15, Cook is up to 339 touches on the season, and that’s while missing a full game. He’s been carrying fantasy managers all year, totaling 15-plus PPR points in 12-of-13 games, but should you be concerned going into Week 16? The Vikings are not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but they’re awfully close. Could we see them try to preserve their running back who signed an extension before the start of this season? Knowing there is still a small percentage chance they make the playoffs and that this game is taking place on Friday, before any other game, we should expect him to be the feature back. The downside is that he’s about to go into his third brutal matchup in a row. Of the production the Saints have allowed to skill-position players (the fourth-fewest), just 27.5 percent of it has gone to the running back position, which is behind only the Bucs and Falcons. The Steelers are the only team in the league who’s allowed fewer fantasy points per game to running backs than the Saints have (17.8). When you factor in weighted opportunity (targets are worth more than carries), the Saints allow the fewest PPR points per opportunity to running backs. They’ve allowed just 102.7 total yards per game to the position, which is lower than any team not named the Steelers or Buccaneers. But again, we’ve just watched Cook tally 110 total yards and a touchdown against the Bucs two weeks ago, and then 159 total yards and a touchdown against the Bears last week. Don’t count on another 100-yard performance on the ground, though, as Miles Sanders‘ performance a few weeks ago was the one time they’ve allowed a 100-yard rusher in their last 57 games. The Saints have slipped up a bit over the last two weeks, though, as the Eagles and Chiefs combined to rush for 267 yards and three touchdowns, a number you wouldn’t have seen earlier this year. Sanders is still the only running back to finish better than RB15 against them this year, so it’s hardly a smash spot. You’re starting Cook no matter what and hoping that the trend the last few weeks turns out to be something.

Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray: We all raised a glass to Kamara’s fantasy value once Brees returned but how do we feel now? Kamara totaled 94 yards with a touchdown against the Chiefs, but it’s a bit worrisome that he saw just six targets and caught three passes against a Chiefs defense that ranks as the second-best matchup for pass-catching backs, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. For what it’s worth, Football Outsiders have the Vikings as the second-toughest matchup in DVOA defense against pass-catching running backs. Kamara has now finished with 54 yards or less rushing yards in six of his last seven games, so that passing game usage is extremely important. It surely doesn’t help that he’s failed to top 11 carries in five of his last seven games, either. Whatever the case, Kamara hasn’t finished better than the RB10 since way back in Week 10. The Vikings have allowed nine different running backs to finish as a top-15 option and score more than 15 PPR points against them, including David Montgomery, who rushed for a career-high 146 yards and two touchdowns against them last week. Over the last three games without linebacker Eric Kendricks, the Vikings have allowed the Jaguars, Bucs, and Bears running backs to combine for 343 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 76 carries, which amounts to 4.51 yards per carry. With Kendricks in the lineup, they’d allowed 4.37 yards per carry with six rushing touchdowns in 11 games. As mentioned, the Vikings are a tough matchup through the air for running backs, as they’ve allowed just 4.83 yards and 1.31 PPR points per target. Because of that, they’ve allowed the ninth-fewest PPR points through the air to running backs. But now on a short week after they faced a massive 32 carries against Montgomery, the Vikings are likely going to struggle to contain the Saints run game, especially if they’re without Kendricks again. Kamara should be considered a mid-to-low-end RB1. Murray is a bit trickier, as he’s seen just 13 carries over the last three games combined, though he was saved by a touchdown last week. With the Saints projected to score a whopping 29.3 points, you have to consider him a candidate to score a touchdown against his former team. Still, he’s nothing more than a touchdown-dependent RB4 in this contest.

WRs
Adam Thielen: He’s fortunate he’s getting a lot of looks in the red zone because he’s now failed to top 51 yards in six of his last eight games. His six touchdowns in the last five games certainly helps his fantasy managers feel better about him in starting lineups, but it does seem like Justin Jefferson has overtaken him as the No. 1 option in this pass attack. The 8.2 yards per target he’s averaging is the lowest mark of his career since becoming a starter in 2016. The matchup against the Saints doesn’t look nearly as good as it did earlier in the year, as they’ve allowed just one top-15 wide receiver performance over their last seven games, which included two games against the Falcons, one against the Bucs, and one against the Chiefs. He’s going to see a mix of all three cornerbacks for the Saints, but his primary matchup will be against Janoris Jenkins, who’s been fantastic in coverage this year, allowing 37-of-63 passing for 459 yards and two touchdowns. However, this is the same defensive scheme it’s been the last few years with similar personnel, and it’s one that Thielen is very familiar with. Unlike his history with the Bears, Thielen has crushed the Saints, posting 7/129/0, 7/103/1, and 6/74/0 in his three matchups against them over the last two years. The line on this game suggests a negative gamescript, which should lead to more targets available for the Vikings receivers. Thielen should be in lineups as a WR2, even if his upside is a bit capped by the Saints recent surge in play.

Justin Jefferson: For the second time since Week 10, he cruised past 100 yards against a Bears secondary that has allowed just three other wide receivers hit that century mark against them all year. He’s quietly become the No. 1 receiver on this team. Despite not playing much the first two weeks, here are the stats of both him and Thielen on the season.

We all know touchdowns are harder to rely on, so it’s pretty clear who the top receiver is on this team. Unfortunately, he has the full attention of his opponents at this point in time. He also plays a majority of his snaps at LWR, which means he’ll see Marshon Lattimore the most. He’ll surely try to get under the rookie’s skin, as both play with a lot of emotion and a chip on their shoulder. Lattimore has been much better after a rough start to the year and has now allowed 31-of-54 passing for 423 yards and five touchdowns in his coverage over the last nine games. Those are not shutdown numbers, as evidenced by his 105.7 QB Rating in coverage during that time. Let’s just say this: It’s not an ideal matchup with someone who’s shown shutdown capability, but it’s also not a must avoid. This all comes down to Jefferson’s ceiling being potentially limited, as the Saints haven’t allowed a top-12 performance since back in Week 8, but knowing he’s totaled at least 70 yards in five of his last six games, you’re not even contemplating sitting him. He’s a plug-and-play WR2 who often presents WR1 upside.

Emmanuel Sanders: Many will blame Brees for Sanders’ struggles last week, but to see him walk away with 76 yards against the Chiefs should be considered a great day. It was the ninth-most yards they’ve allowed to wide receivers all year. Many were trying to use Sanders’ numbers with Michael Thomas out of the lineup to justify him as a WR2/3 option last week, but they didn’t factor in the matchup nearly enough. While I wasn’t high on Sanders last week against a brutal matchup with the Chiefs, I’m a lot more interested this week in a matchup against the Vikings who’ve allowed the second-most PPR points per target (2.04) to wide receivers. There have been 20 wide receivers who’ve finished as top-36 options against the Vikings this year, and that’s not even including the six wide receivers who finished between WR37 and WR43. The question is whether the Vikings shadow Sanders with rookie cornerback Cameron Dantzler, who’s been getting better and better in coverage. Knowing he didn’t shadow Allen Robinson last week, we should consider it highly unlikely he shadows Sanders. That allows for plenty of time against Chris Jones, the third-string cornerback who’s allowed 23-for-27 passing in his coverage for 287 yards and two touchdowns, which is good for a 135.6 QB Rating. He’s seen at least five targets in every game without Thomas, which puts him in the WR3 conversation this week against this banged-up secondary.

TEs
Irv Smith Jr.: We hoped for more with Kyle Rudolph out of the lineup, but once again, Tyler Conklin was a thorn in Smith’s side. They both saw four targets, but it was Conklin who walked away with 57 yards and a touchdown, while Smith finished with just 37 scoreless yards. Despite the injuries to Rudolph, Smith has yet to see more than five targets in a game this year, which is disappointing because he’s been efficient with the targets that have come his way (9.1 yards per target). Despite the fact that tight ends have seen a massive 23.6 percent target share (4th-highest) against the Saints, they’re averaging just 12.4 PPR points per game against them. Football Outsiders has the Saints ranked as the second-toughest matchup for tight ends in their DVOA metric. It makes sense when you know they allow the second-fewest yards per target (5.64) to the position. There have been just three games this year where the Saints have really been smacked in the mouth by tight ends, and those games came against Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, and Robert Tonyan, the three highest-scoring tight ends on the season. It’s fair to say Smith doesn’t belong near that territory. There are better streaming options out there.

Jared Cook: There may not be a more frustrating fantasy player than Cook this year. He caught a touchdown or totaled 80 yards in five of his first six games, then went into a coma, finishing with 36 total yards and no touchdowns over a four-week stretch, but then popped back on the streaming radar with 3/28/1 against the Falcons and 3/37/1 against the Eagles, only to let us down once again in Week 15 when he totaled just 2/29/0 against the Chiefs. Realistically, we probably shouldn’t be trusting a player who’s caught more than three passes just once in his last 12 games. The reason we have to at least think about him here is the fact that the Saints are without Michael Thomas and potentially Tre’Quan Smith. We did see Cook run 25 routes last week, which is enough to be considered. The Vikings have allowed seven tight ends to finish with double-digit PPR points against them this year, including every tight end who’s seen more than four targets. When they’re targeted, tight ends have averaged 8.19 yards per target, which ranks as the fourth-most in the league. The reason they’ve allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to them is due to lack of volume, as they’ve seen just 6.3 tight end targets per game. Cook is in the mid-to-high-end TE2 conversation while seeing 14 targets over the last three weeks (combined with the Saints likely being down two starting wide receivers). He’s certainly touchdown-dependent but it helps to know his team is projected for 29.3 points (four-plus touchdowns).

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.