Carolina Panthers at Washington Football Team

Spread: Football Team -2.5
Total: 44.5

Panthers at Football Team Betting Matchup

QBs
Teddy Bridgewater: The streak continued in Week 15, as it’s now 15 straight starts that Bridgewater has failed to throw more than two touchdowns. Since returning from his injury in Week 12, he’s thrown just one touchdown pass in three games. Fortunately, he’s rushed for a touchdown in two of them, salvaging his fantasy performances. It’s pretty odd. Bridgewater hadn’t rushed for a touchdown since 2015, but he now has five on the year, including four of them in the last five games. It’s clearly an added element we need to factor in with him. The most important thing to look at with quarterbacks who play against Washington is how they perform under pressure. They get after the quarterback, as evidenced by the fourth-highest sack-rate in the league (7.9 percent). Bridgewater hasn’t been great under pressure, posting a 56.8 QB Rating in those situations, which ranks 27th among quarterbacks who’ve played 100-plus snaps. Many have continually waited for the Washington defense to kind of fall apart, but it hasn’t happened. With just two weeks left in the NFL regular season, they’ve allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game overall to their opponents. The only defenses that have been better are the Rams and Steelers. Even breaking it down to an efficiency standpoint, they’ve allowed just 1.28 PPR points per offensive play to their opponents, which again, is behind only the Steelers and Rams. There have been just six quarterbacks who’ve thrown for more than 215 yards against them, which is quite remarkable as we head into Week 16. From a fantasy perspective, there have been just four quarterbacks who’ve posted numbers better than the QB17 against Washington, and every one of them totaled at least three touchdowns, whether it be passing or rushing. We can’t rely on Bridgewater for that right now, making him just a borderline back-end QB2.

Alex Smith or Dwayne Haskins: After the loss to the Seahawks last week, Ron Rivera immediately pointed out that Smith was the starting quarterback if he’s healthy and able to play, which seems like it’d be the case after he was deemed “close” to playing last week. Haskins threw the ball 55 times in his absence, completing 38 of them for 295 yards and a touchdown, but also throwing two interceptions. Does a whole lot change with Smith under center? Let’s see:

In short… no, it doesn’t change all that much, though Smith dumps down more than Haskins does. Smith’s high completion percentage does mesh well with the fact that the Panthers are one of six teams who’ve allowed a completion-rate of at least 69 percent. Despite that, there have been just four quarterbacks who’ve averaged more than 7.97 yards per attempt against them. The average completion against them goes for just 10.09 yards, which should be right up Smith’s alley. Teams have also chosen to throw the ball 59.6 percent of the time, as the Panthers run defense has gotten better as the year’s gone on, and it’s left opponents using their short passing game to move the ball. Still, Smith hasn’t thrown more than one touchdown in any of his starts this year and he offers nothing from a mobility standpoint, which means he’s not worth considering as a streamer in standard formats. He could be a last-minute option in 2QB formats, but the ceiling is limited. *Update* Smith is questionable, though he did get in a full practice on Friday. It doesn’t matter in the end, as now Terry McLaurin is expected to be out. 

RBs
Christian McCaffrey and Mike Davis: It seems like McCaffrey doesn’t want to be shut down for the season, but after practicing in a limited fashion on Tuesday last week, they shut him down for the rest of the week, which means his thigh injury didn’t respond well to the work. For now, we’ll prepare as if it’s Davis’ backfield once again in Week 16. We talked about the low touch counts by running backs going against the Packers and it led to Davis finishing with just 16 touches and 61 scoreless yards. With McCaffrey out of the lineup the last four games, Davis has finished with 21, 18, 16, and 16 touches in them. What you’re looking for is production through the air, as he hasn’t topped 66 rushing yards since way back in Week 5. It won’t make you feel better to know he played just 53.6 percent of the snaps last week, either. Football Outsiders has Washington as the toughest matchup in DVOA for pass-catching running backs, which makes sense considering D’Andre Swift was the only running back who’s totaled more than four catches or 37 yards through the air against them. Washington has been extremely good against running backs in general this year, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per weighted opportunity. Thanks to Carlos Hyde‘s one long run last week, he became just the sixth running back who was able to finish as a top-24 running back against them. Despite there being nine running backs who’ve totaled 15-plus touches against Washington, there have been just three running backs who’ve topped 77 total yards, which means you’re looking for a touchdown out of Davis. He’s getting enough touches to warrant an RB2 start, but he’s no longer getting that McCaffrey workload he was during Weeks 4-6. *Update* McCaffrey is listed as doubtful once again, and won’t play. 

Antonio Gibson, J.D. McKissic and Peyton Barber: I’ll be honest; I downgraded McKissic with Haskins under center, as he hadn’t checked down to running backs nearly as much as Alex Smith did, but that turned out to be a mistake. McKissic saw a massive 10 targets and finished with 107 total yards and a touchdown against the Seahawks. It surely didn’t hurt that Haskins threw the ball 55 times, but still. Barber scored a touchdown but did absolutely nothing outside of that. Heck, you can’t even get excited about Barber in a good matchup because when he comes on the field, opponents know they’re running the ball. He’s seen eight-plus defenders in the box on a league-high 44.9 percent of the time. The Panthers have certainly improved as a run defense as the year has gone on, but they’re still allowing the eight-most fantasy points per weighted opportunity to the position. The best news for McKissic is that running backs have seen a 20 percent target share against the Panthers, and that’s led to them seeing 101 targets on the season (9th-most). The 82 receptions they’ve allowed is the fourth-most in football, including nine running backs who’ve caught four-plus balls against them, which should provide McKissic with the floor we love. We also watched him get a season-high 13 carries with Antonio Gibson out of the lineup, which came after he totaled 11 carries the previous week. It’s clear that McKissic is going to get more than a dozen touches one way or another, and with Smith under center, there’s 18-plus potential against the defense that allows the eighth-most points per weighted opportunity. The downside is that he loses goal-line carries, but he’s still playing enough to net a solid RB2 start in this game. The Panthers have only allowed eight rushing touchdowns over their last 13 games, so playing Barber doesn’t make much sense. *Update* Gibson did return to a limited practice on Wednesday, giving him hope to play, though we have to see how his injury responds to practicing for the first time. Gibson remained limited thorughout the week and is listed as questionable on the final injury report. This is a situation that clearly won’t get resolved until Sunday morning, so pay attention to my rankings right here. If Gibson plays, McKissic is still an RB3-type option, though he loses some of his ceiling. Gibson would be a low-end RB2 that they’d likely ease back in, and there’s always the risk of a setback. 

WRs
D.J. Moore: He’s obviously over his ankle injury, as he racked up a season-high 131 yards against the Packers last week. It was the highest output he’s had since Week 11 of 2018. His 10.9 yards per target is among the best marks in all of football, and he’s now seen at least seven targets in each of his last four games. Moore has now finished with 93-plus yards in six of his last nine games, as he’s reclaimed the No. 1 wide receiver title of the Panthers. Football Outsiders have Washington as the best matchup in the league for No. 1 wide receivers in their DVOA metric. It’s odd because they’re ranked as the No. 2 DVOA pass defense overall, but it’s basically saying that as long as a No. 1 receiver gets targeted against them, they should be okay. It is worth noting that Washington has allowed five 20-point PPR performances by wide receivers, and all of them were the opponent’s No. 1 wide receiver who was targeted at least eight times. Outside of those five wide receivers, just eight others have been able to finish as top-36 receivers, so there’s quite a steep drop-off. Moore plays 80 percent of his snaps on the perimeter, which means he’ll see a mix of Kendall Fuller and Ronald Darby in coverage, though Fuller is his primary matchup. He’s played extremely well this year while allowing just 7.15 yards per target in his coverage, though he has allowed a touchdown every 11.8 targets, so he hasn’t been perfect, either. This is a tough matchup, though if Moore continues to get the targets, he should be able to live up to low-end WR2 status.

Robby Anderson: He tied season-lows in both targets (5) and yardage (21) last week, while catching a season-low two receptions. It came at the wrong time for fantasy managers, but we’ve been trending in the wrong direction with Anderson over the last two months, as he’s finished with fewer than 50 yards in four of his last seven games. The lone piece of good news is that he’s still seen at least five targets in every game. Now onto a matchup with Washington, who has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game (31.9) to wide receivers. Volume hasn’t even helped all that much, as the 1.58 PPR points per target ranks second behind only the Rams. Teams of wide receivers have averaged just 148.4 yards per game against Washington, including just 90 yards to the Seahawks receivers last week. There have been just 13 wide receivers this year who’ve finished with 60-plus yards against them, while nine of those receivers saw seven-plus targets. If there’s one bit of hope for Anderson, it’s that his primary matchup will be with Ronald Darby, who’s allowed a massive 14.8 yards per reception in his coverage. The downside is that Anderson and Bridgewater haven’t connected much on the deep ball, as he’s caught just 6-of-19 passes that have traveled over 20 yards in the air. Considering there have been just 13 wide receivers who’ve finished top-36 against Washington, it’s certainly going to be an uphill battle, making Anderson a somewhat-iffy WR3 this week.

Curtis Samuel: Despite D.J. Moore coming back to the lineup, Samuel racked up nine-plus targets for the fourth time in the last six games. Unfortunately, he wasn’t too effective with his nine targets against the Packers, netting just four catches for 42 yards, though it was worth noting that he was questionable for that game with a hamstring, so he may not have been 100 percent. Despite that rough outing (that didn’t bury you), Samuel has finished with 11.4 or more PPR points in seven of his last nine games, which is typically enough to get you into WR3 territory. Of the 13 wide receivers the Football Team has allowed top-36 performances to, just two of them (Tyler Boyd, Cooper Kupp) were slot-heavy receivers. Jimmy Moreland has been one of the best slot cornerbacks in football, allowing just 37-of-52 passing for 261 yards and no touchdowns in his coverage. That’s 5.02 yards per target in his coverage, which is horrendous. The 0.89 yards per snap in coverage ranks as the second-lowest number among cornerbacks who’ve played 125-plus snaps in the slot. The Panthers have been creative in getting the ball in Samuel’s hands, including 31 carries on the year, so his floor should be somewhat intact, but it’s not a game to get excited about when placing him into lineups. Consider him a low-end WR3/high-end WR4 who lacks much of a ceiling in this game.

Terry McLaurin: It was good to see McLaurin peppered with targets last week, and as it turns out, he needed them. The 12 targets he received was his second-highest total of the season, but he was only able to net seven catches for 77 yards against a rapidly improving Seahawks defense. McLaurin now leads the NFL with a 41.4 percent share of his team’s air yards, so if you know they’re going to rack up some attempts, you know he’s going to have a lot of potential. The matchup against the Panthers has been a great matchup for wide receivers like him. They’ve only allowed the 16th-most fantasy points to wide receivers, but it’s more to do with how they’ve struggled with wide receivers who actually get targeted heavily. McLaurin has seen at least six targets in every game this year, so let’s look at the 17 wide receivers who’ve seen six-plus targets against the Panthers. Eight of them finished with 19.3 or more PPR points, while 16 of them finished with 10.3 or more PPR points. So, you’re essentially guaranteed a WR3 floor when you see six-plus targets against them with a 50 percent shot at WR1-type production. He plays most of his snaps at LWR, which means he’ll see Donte Jackson the most. He has the speed (4.32) to keep up with McLaurin downfield, but he lacks the agility to compete with McLaurin’s route running. You should have McLaurin in lineups as a strong WR2 start this week. *Update* McLaurin was downgraded to doubtful with an ankle injury, so you’ll need to have a backup plan. 

TEs
Ian Thomas: After seeing just 20 targets over the first 12 games combined, Thomas has suddenly seen four targets in each of the last two games. It’s not like it’s amounted to much, as he’s finished with 3/20/0 and 3/29/0 in those contests. He’s clearly fifth in line for targets, so in a matchup that doesn’t project many points, you don’t need to be considering him.

Logan Thomas: There are just three tight ends who’ve seen a higher percentage of their team’s air yards than Thomas: Darren Waller, Travis Kelce, and Mark Andrews. That’s mighty good company to be in. Thomas has entered must-start territory over the last month, as he’s proven the ability to produce in even the toughest of matchups. His last four weeks have produced 13.4, 24.8, 10.3, and 23.1 PPR points. The ranks of the defenses against tight ends he went against in those games were 13th, 2nd, 1st, and 11th, so he’s been what we call matchup-proof. Meanwhile, the Panthers have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to the position. This matchup really does suit what Washington wants to do (target running backs and tight ends a lot), as we’ve seen teams continually target their tight ends and running backs. The 110 targets to tight ends rank as the fifth-most, while the 101 targets to running backs ranks as the ninth-most. The volume has led to 5.6 receptions, 56.4 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns per game to tight ends, and Thomas is accounting for 99 percent of Washington’s tight end production. There’s been just one tight end who’s scored more than 13.8 PPR points, but 12 different tight ends have been able to finish with at least 10.0 PPR points and as a top-16 option against them. That highlights the floor and we’ve been seeing more of a ceiling out of Thomas, so keep him in lineups as a TE1 this week.

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Colts -1.5
Total: 44.5

Colts at Steelers Betting Matchup

QBs
Philip Rivers: It was our concern all along that the Colts would be able to run the ball all over the Texans and just sit on a lead. That’s precisely what happened, as Rivers threw the ball just 28 times for the second straight week, though he did net 228 yards and two touchdowns on them, which netted him 17.0 fantasy points. He’s now scored at least 16.3 fantasy points in each of his last six games, and eight of his last nine games. The lone exception was the Ravens, another AFC North team. Has Rivers caught the Steelers defense at the right time? They are allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game overall to their opponents, behind only the Rams. The 1.19 PPR points per offensive play is also the second-lowest mark in the league, so it’s not due to lack of plays, either. But again, have the injuries started to pile up to the point where we could see those numbers start to decline? The Colts offense has ranked as the 13th-most efficient when it comes to fantasy points per offensive play, so it’ll be interesting to see who comes out on top here, though playing outside in Pittsburgh in December isn’t likely to be friendly weather. Rivers has played 19 games in sub-40-degree weather over his career, and while his marks have gone down across the board, his numbers aren’t too far off his career averages. The Steelers have allowed a league-low 56.0 percent completion-rate this year, which is quite remarkable considering no other team has allowed lower than 61.1 percent. The Steelers have also intercepted a league-high 17 passes on the season while allowing just 18.9 points per game to their opponents. Despite all the injuries they’ve dealt with, no quarterback has been able to finish better than QB14 against them since Week 11 of last year. Rivers has served his purpose to streamers but he’s not someone you should aim to trust in fantasy championships.

Ben Roethlisberger: Remember when Roethlisberger was missing practices and Mike Tomlin said there was really something to his questionable status about a month ago? Well, maybe we should’ve listened because Roethlisberger hasn’t looked the same over the last few weeks. The Steelers offense hasn’t scored more than 20 points since back in Week 11, while Roethlisberger has finished with fewer than 14.0 fantasy points in three of his last four games. He’s strictly a pocket-passer, so if he’s off with his passing, he has no avenue to fantasy points. The Colts have slowed the tempo in games, leaving their opponents running the fourth-fewest plays per game (61.6) against them. That’s led to just 33.5 pass attempts per game against them, a number Roethlisberger has surpassed in 11-of-14 games this season. It’s a problem for Roethlisberger’s projections because he’s only averaging 6.2 yards per attempt this season, which is easily the lowest mark of his career (removing last year’s 1.5 game sample size). If there’s any good news for him, it’s that there have been eight quarterbacks who’ve thrown the ball at least 37 times against the Colts, and seven of those quarterbacks have finished as the QB16 or better. It’s probably important to note that three of those quarterbacks had rushing touchdowns, but still. The Colts have allowed a sturdy 7.42 yards per attempt this year and have struggled to defend the position that Roethlisberger throws to the most (wide receivers), so it might not be as bad as some think, provided his attempts are there. Consider Roethlisberger a wide range of outcomes middling QB2 for this contest because if he does find his arm again, the Colts have allowed six different quarterbacks to throw for 300-plus yards.

RBs
Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines: Similar to David Montgomery, Taylor has had a late-season surge that’s carried fantasy managers deep into the playoffs. Over the last four games he’s played, Taylor has totaled 414 yards on 71 carries (5.83 yards per carry) with three touchdowns on the ground, and then another 13 receptions for 95 yards and a touchdown through the air. That’s great, though it needs to be noted that those games where against three of the worst run defenses in football (Texans twice, Packers, Raiders). That’s not going to be the case in Week 16. Not only do the Steelers allow the fewest fantasy points per game to skill-position players (59.9) but running backs have accounted for just 29.6 percent of that production, which is the seventh-lowest percentage in the NFL. There’s not a team in the league who allows fewer fantasy points per game (17.7) to the position. The 3.79 yards per carry they’ve allowed is not a great sign for production, nor is the fact that they’ve faced just 20.8 carries per game because we know Hines will get a handful of them. Running backs have seen a league-low 14.2 percent target share against the Steelers, which obviously doesn’t bode well for Hines, who hasn’t topped 12 carries all year. Even when they do get targeted, they haven’t been all that efficient, as the 4.82 yards per target (6th-lowest) highlights. All in all, the Steelers rank as the second-worst matchup for running backs from an efficiency standpoint, allowing just 0.69 PPR points per opportunity. An opportunity counts as a target or carry, so if a running back were to get a solid 15 opportunities, it would amount to just 10.4 PPR points, on average. However, has Taylor caught this defense at the right time as the injuries have piled up? We did watch the Bengals running backs pile up 105 yards and a touchdown on the ground against them last week. It’s impossible to bench Taylor with the way he’s been playing, but he’s more of a high-end RB2 this week than the stud RB1 he’s been the last month. As for Hines, he’s totaled just 27 touches over the last three games (9.0 per game) while Taylor has been going bananas, so there’s little reason to expect that to change, making him a high-end RB4-type running back who has flashed upside every once in a while, which gets him the nod over most in that territory.

James Conner and Benny Snell: We didn’t find out until Monday afternoon that Conner wouldn’t be available for the game against the Bengals, though we’d talked about the fact that you probably shouldn’t have aimed to play him in that game regardless. With him out of the lineup, we at least had a clear answer as to who the Steelers primary running back would be. Even in the last five games Conner has played, he’s failed to reach 50 rushing yards in four of them. Snell stepped in and played admirably against the Bengals rushing the ball 18 times for 84 yards and a touchdown, while also chipping in with three receptions and 23 yards through the air. We should hope to get some clarity on the situation prior to Sunday, but as of now, if you roster both, you should be hoping Conner sits out again. The matchup is not a good one against the Colts, who’ve not allowed the last seven non-Derrick Henry teams rush for more than 70 yards against them. I’m not talking about one running back, but rather the entire team of running backs. It’s a shame that the Steelers don’t use their running backs more in the passing game, as we’ve seen the Colts allow 22 receptions for 180 yards over the last two weeks to running backs. Going by just rushing, they’ve allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to running backs, thanks to the 3.82 yards per carry they hold running backs to. Through the air, they’ve allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to running backs. Ultimately, if you’re a pass-catching back, you’ll probably make it out okay, but knowing the Steelers haven’t targeted a running back more than four times since back in Week 7, it’s tough to trust them as anything more than a high-end RB3, which is where Snell would fall if Conner sits. If Conner plays, he’d be the favorite, but you couldn’t trust him as anything more than a low-end RB3, while Snell would be a risky RB4. *Update* Conner practiced in full all week and doesn’t even have an injury designation. 

WRs
T.Y. Hilton: It was a letdown to see Hilton finish with just four catches for 71 yards against the Texans last week, but it didn’t bury you. He’s now accounted for three of the Colts’ top-five wide receiver performances this year over the last four games. During that time, the targets have been distributed like this: Hilton 29, Pittman 22, Zach Pascal 13. He’s clearly the No. 1 receiver here, which bodes well for the matchup this week. The Steelers don’t allow a whole lot of fantasy production to their opponents, we know that. But when they do, wide receivers are usually the main beneficiaries, as they’ve allowed them to account for a league-high 58.3 percent of the production they’ve allowed to skill-position players. It certainly helps that receivers have seen a 62.1 percent target share against the Steelers, which is the second-highest mark in the league. There have been six wide receivers who’ve posted 100-plus yards against them, with five of them being perimeter-based receivers like Hilton. He plays on both sides of the formation equally, so he’ll see a mix of Joe Haden and Steven Nelson, the duo that’s allowed 71-of-132 passing for 937 yards and six touchdowns in their coverage. They have been playing well as of late, as we’ve seen them limit Tee Higgins to 3/31/0 (limited pass attempts in that game), Terry McLaurin to 2/14/0, Marquise Brown to 4/85/1 (one play accounted for almost all his production), and D.J. Chark 4/41/0. There was a game in-between them where Stefon Diggs blew up, but Haden was out for that game. Hilton is likely to settle into low-end WR3 territory in the rankings this week.

Michael Pittman: We’ve watched his targets dip 9-5-5-3 over the last four weeks while Hilton establishes himself as the WR1 in this offense. Outside of a two-game stretch in Weeks 10-11, Pittman hasn’t topped 56 yards or caught a touchdown in any other game, making him untrustworthy in fantasy championships. On top of that, the Steelers have allowed the ninth-fewest PPR points per game to wide receivers, which makes it unlikely we see two Colts receivers emerge from this game with actual value, and that’s evidenced by the 14 wide receivers who’ve finished as top-36 options against the Steelers, which amounts to just one per game, and just three of them did it while seeing fewer than seven targets. Pittman is nothing more than a WR5 this week.

Diontae Johnson: Not many know that Johnson led the league in yards of separation (3.6) as a rookie last year, but he’s proving it was no fluke, as he’s at 3.3 yards of separation this year, which ranks as the eighth-highest mark in the league (min. 50 targets). The other Steelers receivers: Smith-Schuster (3.1), Claypool (2.6), and Washington (2.4). No wonder Roethlisberger likes throwing to Johnson. The Colts have seen a wide receiver target on just 54.2 percent of pass attempts, which is the third-lowest mark in the league. That won’t be the case against the Steelers, who are targeted on 70.8 percent of Roethlisberger’s attempts. That’s important because when targeted, wide receivers have had success against the Colts, as highlighted by the 9.28 yards per target, which ranks as the second-highest number in the league behind only the Lions. There have been 21 different wide receivers who’ve seen more than five targets against the Colts (we know Johnson is getting that), and 18 of them finished with at least 10.2 PPR points, while 11 of them finished with 15-plus PPR points. As long as there’s nothing wrong with Johnson (who had to leave for a bit in Monday night’s game), he should be locked into lineups as a high-floor WR2 with a WR1 ceiling.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: What an up-and-down season for Smith-Schuster, who’s now finished with fewer than 40 yards in six games, including four of his last five games. It’s hard to be done with him, though, as there have been seven games where he’s finished as the WR28 or better. His 107 targets are also the 16th-most in football, which matters quite a bit in this matchup. Many see the Colts allowing the 10th-fewest PPR points per game to wide receivers, but volume is the culprit, as they’ve actually allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target to the position. We’ve also seen slot-heavy Keke Coutee finish 5/53/1 and 8/141/0 against them in two of the last three weeks. Kenny Moore is the slot cornerback for the Colts, and though he’s done a solid job in his coverage (6.80 yards per target), there are zones to exploit, as highlighted by the fact that six slot-heavy receivers have been able to finish as top-30 options against them. As mentioned in the Diontae Johnson notes, there have been 21 different wide receivers who’ve seen more than five targets against the Colts, and 18 of them finished with at least 10.2 PPR points. Smith-Schuster has seen at least five targets in 13-of-14 games, so he should be considered a decent floor WR3 for this contest, though his ceiling is limited.

Chase Claypool: He’s played 67 percent of the snaps over the last two weeks, while we watched James Washington fall from 80.7 percent of the snaps in Week 14 to just 41.5 percent in Week 15, so this is still Claypool’s job, even if he has lost some of his appeal in recent weeks. He’s now gone six straight weeks without reaching 60 yards, though the targets are not the problem. He’s seen at least six targets in seven of his last eight games, which is more than enough to produce. The Colts have allowed 9.28 yards per target to wide receivers, which ranks as the second-most in the league, behind only the Lions. So, if the targets keep coming at the pace they’ve been, there should be production that follows. We need Roethlisberger to push the ball down the field a bit, though, as the Colts have allowed 14.20 yards per reception to receivers, which is the second-highest mark in the league. Claypool has seen 25 deep targets, which leads the team (no other receiver has more than 14). He has that one-play upside, and it’s not like his 52-69 yards in five of the last seven games has crushed your fantasy team. Dialing back expectations makes sense, but he’s still worthy of the back-end WR3 conversation.

TEs
Jack Doyle, Trey Burton, and Mo Alie-Cox: This timeshare only gets worse as the weeks go on. Here are the routes run on the season: Burton 197, Doyle 188, Alie-Cox 179. None of them are in the top-35 tight ends for routes run on the season. If you don’t get opportunity, you can’t score fantasy points. If you don’t get much opportunity, you need hyper efficiency, which is not going to happen in this matchup. Targets to tight ends against the Steelers have amounted to a league-low 1.20 PPR points. Through 14 games, they’ve somehow allowed just a 53.8 percent catch-rate and 5.38 yards per target, while allowing just two touchdowns on 92 targets. Football Outsiders has the Steelers as the No. 1 team in DVOA against tight ends, and it’s not particularly close. Don’t rely on any of the Colts tight ends.

Eric Ebron or Vance McDonald: It was supposed to be a revenge game for Ebron, but it seems like he’s going to be forced to miss this game after suffering a back injury in Week 15 that he was carted away because of. Despite Ebron leaving early in that game and McDonald playing a season-high 92.3 percent of snaps, he didn’t see a single target. On top of that, the Colts defense has not been one to attack with tight ends, allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the position. It’s not volume, either, as they’ve allowed just 1.35 PPR points per target, which is the second-lowest mark in the league to only the Steelers themselves. Prior to his injury, he was already going to be a very questionable streaming option in this matchup, so do yourself and avoid the situation all together. *Update* Ebron practiced in full on both Thursday and Friday, so he’ll be on the field against his former team. Still, he’s just a middling TE2.

Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -11
Total: 53.5

Falcons at Chiefs Betting Matchup

QBs
Matt Ryan: So, Ryan can get things done without Julio Jones? I figured his attempts would carry him through to a decent QB2 finish last week, and while the volume was what I expected (49 attempts), I didn’t expect him to complete 69.4 percent of his passes for 356 yards and three touchdowns. It was his third-best game of the year, though the Bucs secondary has been struggling as of late. Has he caught the Chiefs at the right time, too? Over their last six games, they have allowed 15 passing touchdowns, and those matchups were against Drew Brees (who didn’t look great), Drew Lock, Tua Tagovailoa, Tom Brady, Derek Carr, and Teddy Bridgewater, so it’s not like they’ve played the best competition, either. In their first eight games, they’d allowed just nine passing touchdowns, so they’re certainly slipping a bit. While they’ve allowed the 14th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this year, here’s the list of quarterbacks who’ve finished with fewer than 15 fantasy points against them: Drew Lock (twice), Sam Darnold, and Brian Hoyer. The Chiefs have allowed the second-lowest completion-rate (61.1 percent) to quarterbacks this year to go along with just 6.83 yards per attempt, so it’ll take some volume to get Ryan’s yardage totals up, but that shouldn’t be too much of an issue with the lack of run game for the Falcons, though the Chiefs are an easier team to run the ball on than the Bucs were. It would certainly help Ryan if Julio Jones can get back on the field, but he should come with a top-20 floor in this game considering the state of their offense and recent struggles of the Chiefs defense. If Jones can suit up, Ryan should be considered a high-end QB2. *Update* Jones has been ruled out, downgrading Ryan to the mid-QB2 tier. 

Patrick Mahomes: Despite averaging a season-low 5.4 yards per attempt against the Saints last week, Mahomes still managed to walk away with 25.9 fantasy points, highlighting just how ridiculously valuable he is. If he’s hyper-efficient, he’ll crush you with limited pass attempts. If he’s not as efficient, he’ll throw the ball a bit more and make up for it that way. Not only has Mahomes accounted for 38 of the Chiefs 47 touchdowns this year, but now that Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out, he’s all but guaranteed to have his hands on every touchdown. When your team is projected for 32.3 points, that’s unbelievable. He’s now back at home against a Falcons defense that has allowed more fantasy points per offensive snap (1.60) than any other team in the NFL. The Chiefs have averaged 1.65 PPR points per offensive snap as an offense, which just goes to show how bad the Falcons have been, as the Packers, Seahawks, and Chiefs are the only teams who average more fantasy points per play than they’ve allowed. The Chiefs are likely to go through the air even more than they would’ve in the first place, and that’s precisely the area you want to attack the Falcons defense. They’re the only team in the NFL who’s allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks than they have to running backs. Crazy, right? The 23.1 fantasy points per game they’ve allowed to quarterbacks is more than any other team, and it’s led to 11-of-14 quarterbacks finishing with 18.4-plus fantasy points against them, including two with 31-plus fantasy points. They’re one of just two teams who’ve allowed 300-plus passing yards on average this year. If your league gives a bonus for 300-yard games, the Falcons have allowed nine of them. In case you didn’t know, Mahomes leads the league with nine 300-yard games this year. The 69.7 percent completion-rate they’ve allowed ranks as the third-highest mark in the NFL. If you’re going against Mahomes, I’m sorry. There’s nothing but green lights here for Mahomes and this pass attack.

RBs
Todd Gurley and Ito Smith: According to NFL’s NextGenStats that factor in everything from defenders in the box, yards before contact, and broken tackles, Gurley has finished with 100 fewer yards than he should’ve in 2020, which ranks as the second-worst running back in football, behind only Adrian Peterson. The Falcons seem to be well aware of that, as Gurley hasn’t topped eight carries since back in Week 9. He hasn’t reached 30 total yards in each of his last four games. This is all happening because he’s played just 25-37 percent of the snaps since their bye week. He’s not playable with those numbers. On top of that, interim head coach Raheem Morris came forward and said that Smith will be the No. 1 running back moving forward and that Gurley’s demotion is not about his knee, but rather due to Smith’s play. Projecting gamescript, we have to assume the Falcons fall behind early as 11-point underdogs, so we have to look for production through the air. The Chiefs have allowed the fourth-most PPR points (12.1 per game) through the air alone to running backs this year. They rank as the second-best matchup in the league for pass-catching backs, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. Over the last three weeks, we’ve watched Smith run 49 routes, while Gurley has run 30 of them, and Brian Hill 21. There have been 12 running backs who’ve totaled more than 12 touches against the Chiefs, and 10 of them have finished as the RB31 or better. Smith sneaks into the RB3 conversation this week, while Gurley has fallen back to unplayable.

Le’Veon Bell and Darrel Williams: Now that we know Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out the remainder of the regular season, it’s Bell’s time to step in and do what he was signed to do. What does that mean exactly? Well, before Bell arrived, Edwards-Helaire was averaging 17.8 carries and 3.5 receptions per game. Since that time, those numbers dipped significantly. Does that mean Bell immediately walks into the 21.3 touches per game that Edwards-Helaire had? Not necessarily, especially considering Bell has averaged a pedestrian 4.00 yards per attempt since arriving. We did see him have a big role in the Week 15 game against the Saints where he managed 76 total yards and a touchdown on 16 touches against a tough run defense. This matchup against the Falcons isn’t one to attack with running backs on the ground. Sure, Leonard Fournette may have scored twice last week, but touchdowns are volatile and unpredictable. Even with those included, running backs have accounted for a league-low 26.4 percent of the production the Falcons allow to skill-position players. When you look at what the Falcons have allowed on the ground, it’s quite remarkable. With just two games remaining they’ve allowed just 68.8 rushing yards and 0.50 rushing touchdowns per game on the ground, which amounts to just 9.9 fantasy points, the second-lowest mark in the league behind the Bucs. It’s through the air where there’s production to be had, as they’ve allowed the eighth-most fantasy points through the air to running backs. That’s where the next question comes in: Does Bell walk into a bigger passing game role, as he’s been tied with Williams for 37 routes run over the last three weeks? I’m assuming they’ll share that role a bit, though Bell will receive most of the targets. It’s not the best matchup, but the Falcons have a lot to worry about in that secondary, which should open things up a bit underneath. Bell can be played as a middling RB2 this week on a team that’s projected for 32.3 points. Williams is more of an RB4 option who could have more value than I’m expecting, though this matchup isn’t one that’s likely to produce two fantasy-relevant running backs.

WRs
Julio Jones: According to Ian Rapoport, Jones received a platelet injection in his hamstring in order to accelerate his return to the field. With two games left, Jones is 229 yards short of his seventh-straight 1,000-yard season. For the purpose of fantasy lineups, we’ll assume he returns to practice and is given the green light for this game. Despite the popular opinion that the Chiefs are a good matchup for wide receivers, they rank as the No. 2 team in the league against the position, behind only the Rams. Teams of wide receivers have averaged just 30.6 PPR points per game against them, which comes from just 10.9 receptions, 132.8 yards, and 0.93 touchdowns per game. That’s… not a lot, especially when the Falcons don’t have just one receiver who makes up the majority of production. Football Outsiders have the Chiefs as the second-worst matchup for opposing No. 1 wide receivers in DVOA, though the question becomes, “Who’s the No. 1 receiver for the Falcons?” That’s subjective but know that DVOA also has the Chiefs as the 11th-best matchup for No. 2 receivers. The cornerback Jones will see most of the time is Bashaud Breeland, who’s only allowed 5.85 yards per target in his coverage, but has also allowed a touchdown every 9.6 targets. All five touchdowns he’s allowed in his coverage have come over the last five games, so he’s clearly not playing his best football. Look, if Jones plays, you put him in your lineup and hope for the best. You have to build in some risk, along with the below-average matchup, so he is in the WR2 range rather than elite WR1 territory. I’ll post updates by Saturday morning on his status. *Update* Jones has been ruled OUT for this game.

Calvin Ridley: Are there still people out there who doubt what Ridley can accomplish without Jones on the field? This is where I’ll share a list of the games Ridley has played and seen eight-plus targets with or without Jones in the lineup.

That is simply ridiculous. Sure, volume typically equals production, but for most receivers, it’s not every time. The matchup this week is a tough one against the Chiefs, who’ve allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Of the production the Chiefs have allowed to skill-position players, wide receivers have accounted for a league-low 44.5 percent of it. There’s no other team in the league whose percentage in lower than 46.1 percent. Football Outsiders has the Chiefs listed as the second-toughest matchup for No. 1 wide receivers, which is clearly what Ridley is with Julio Jones out of the lineup, but what does it mean if Jones is back? Football Outsiders has the Chiefs as the 11th-easiest matchup for No. 2 receivers, so take that as you will. The cornerback Ridley will see the most is Charvarius Ward, who’s been pretty solid in coverage all year, though not dominant, allowing 26-of-49 passing for 349 yards and three touchdowns. Despite this being a bad matchup in general, there have been 15 wide receivers who’ve seen seven-plus targets against the Chiefs, and all but one of them (Jeff Smith) finished with at least 11.6 PPR points, including four 20-point receivers. You may not get a top-five performance out of Ridley, but you still need to play him as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2. If Jones sits, you’re all but guaranteed eight-plus targets, and we already know what happens then.

Russell Gage: After a 10-target game last week, Gage is officially a top-25 targeted wide receiver in 2020. He’s seen 42 targets over the last five games, which have netted finishes of 36-62-31-13-16 in half-PPR formats. That’s WR3 or better in 80 percent of the games, which is obviously a good thing. A lot of his projection this week will rely on Julio Jones‘ availability, so we’ll talk about both scenarios. You know that narrative out there where people say, “this team will fall behind against the Chiefs and it’ll lead to a lot of passing, which in turn leads to a lot of production for wide receivers.” It couldn’t be further from the truth. In fact, wide receivers have accounted for a league-low 52.4 percent of targets against the Chiefs. Even when receivers are targeted, they’re averaging a weak 1.62 PPR points per target, which is the fourth-lowest mark in the league. That’s led to them allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game (30.6) to wide receivers. There have been just four slot-heavy receivers (Keenan Allen, Curtis Samuel, Chris Godwin, Lynn Bowden) who’ve finished with more than 45 yards against the Chiefs, and each of them saw at least nine targets. The Chiefs have L’Jarius Snead covering the slot over the last four weeks, and he’s allowed 10-of-18 passing for 88 yards and a touchdown in his coverage. It’s a small sample size, but in the end, everything comes back to Jones being available or not. If Jones plays, Gage is just a low-upside WR4/5 option. If Jones sits, Gage moves into low-end WR3 territory. *Update* Jones has been ruled out for this game, moving Gage into the low-end WR3 discussion.

Tyreek Hill: With two weeks left in the regular season, Hill sits atop wide receivers in fantasy scoring, with a comfortable 19.8-point gap between him and Davante Adams. This is what happens when Hill gets double-digit targets like he has in six of his last eight games. And now you get a matchup with the Falcons during the fantasy finals? The Falcons have allowed the second-most PPR points per game (43.8) to wide receivers this year and it’s not just because they’ve had a tough schedule or anything. When you look at what their opponents have averaged in non-Falcons games versus what they post versus the Falcons, you’ll see a 14.5 percent increase in points, which is the second-best matchup in the league. It’s not just that, either. Hill lines up in the slot about 57 percent of the time. You know who covers the slot for the Falcons? Isaiah Oliver. There are just two cornerbacks in the league who’ve allowed more yards (767) in their coverage. You don’t need me to tell you to play Hill, who could go absolutely bananas and carry your team to a championship.

Sammy Watkins: Not only does Watkins get decent targets from Mahomes, but he’s also generating great separation (3.9 yards), ranking fourth in the NFL in that stat. So, why hasn’t production followed? Well, it doesn’t help that his average depth of target is just 7.5 yards down the field, while Tyreek Hill‘s is essentially double that. But still, to know that Watkins has finished as a top-36 wide receiver just once all season (in Week 1) is mindboggling. He has finished in-between the WR37 and WR46 in three games, so he can be considered at times. Can he get back into that top-36 conversation this week? We know the Chiefs are going to produce a boatload of fantasy points, right? Of the production the Falcons have allowed to skill-position players, we’ve watched wide receivers account for 54.5 percent of it, which is the fourth-highest percentage in the league. They’ve allowed the second-most fantasy points per game (43.8) to wide receivers, and while the volume has been great (22.4 targets per game), efficiency has been there, too. The 1.89 PPR points per target they’ve allowed ranks as the eighth-most in the NFL, while the 9.18 yards per target is the fourth-highest mark. Watkins has seen at least six targets in 6-of-7 full games this year, so he can be considered as a WR4 in this phenomenal matchup.

TEs
Hayden Hurst: He ended a four-game drought where he hadn’t scored double-digit PPR points in Week 15, which allows fantasy managers a little bit of confidence to consider him as a streamer. It seems his disappearance started around the time that Russell Gage started to post bigger numbers on the stat sheet, which makes sense because they’re fighting for targets in the same area of the field. Hurst has also played much better with Julio Jones in the lineup, so there’s a whole lot of correlation issues here, but just know that Hurst actually benefits from Jones. The Chiefs have been extremely good against wide receivers this year (second-fewest fantasy points) but have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to tight ends. They’ve been targeted on 21.5 percent of attempts against the Chiefs, which is top-10 in the league, so we should have a target floor for Hurst in this game. There have been eight tight ends who’ve scored 9.7 or more PPR points against the Chiefs, while four of them have scored 15-plus points. The one thing that needs to be mentioned is that seven of those eight tight ends saw at least six targets, a number Hurst has hit just once since Week 9. When you factor in the competition against the Chiefs, it ranks as the ninth-best schedule-adjusted matchup, as tight ends have averaged 10.8 percent more PPR points against the Chiefs than they have versus their season-long average in non-Chiefs games. Hurst is in the high-end TE2 conversation if Jones plays but slides down into middling TE2 territory if Jones sits.

Travis Kelce: There are still two games left in the regular season, yet Kelce is just 60 yards off breaking the all-time single-season record for yards by a tight end. If you recall, he broke the record in 2018 when he totaled 1,327 yards, but watched George Kittle break his record that same week when he finished with 1,377 yards. Let me be clear: Kelce will break the record in this game. The Falcons have allowed 2.10 PPR points per target to the tight end position, which ranks as the third-highest mark in the league, behind only the Jets and Jaguars. A massive 78.4 percent of the passes that are thrown to tight ends are completed against them, which is the league-lead by a full 2.4 percent. The Bills are the only team who’s allowed more receptions (80) than the Falcons have to the position. There have been 11 different tight ends who’ve posted at least 41 yards and/or a touchdown against the Falcons, including four tight ends who’ve posted 16.9 or more PPR points. Tight ends have averaged 19.1 percent more PPR points against the Falcons than they have in non-Falcons games, making this the third-best schedule-adjusted matchup. He’s the TE1 who will be celebrated this week.

Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Bears -7.5
Total: 46.5

Bears at Jaguars Betting Matchup

QBs
Mitch Trubisky: He continued playing efficient football in Week 15, though we saw something we haven’t really seen all year against the Vikings, and that was the Bears going run-heavy. On the year, the Bears have thrown the ball 63.4 percent of the time, which is the third-highest mark in the league. In last week’s game, they threw the ball just 34.4 percent of the time. Are they doing this to preserve their chances of making the playoffs and limit the mistakes? The answer is probably yes, but if they want a chance against the Packers in Week 17 (or the playoffs), they can’t continue to hide Trubisky. The Jaguars have allowed 104.7 PPR points per game to their opponents overall, which ranks second to only the Lions. Even when you break it down with efficiency, they’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points per offensive snap. The Jaguars are horrible against the run, but they’ve also struggled a ton trying to slow down quarterbacks, allowing 22.3 fantasy points per game to them, which ranks behind only the Falcons. It’s not just one thing they struggle against, either. They’ve allowed a 70 percent completion-rate (2nd), 8.28 yards per attempt (1st), 6.60 percent touchdown-rate (2nd), and have generated a sack on just 3.49 percent of dropbacks (4th-fewest). The 31 touchdown passes they’ve allowed is the most in the league. We haven’t seen Trubisky use his legs a whole lot this year, but that hasn’t mattered against the Jaguars. When you look at strictly passing numbers, the Jaguars have allowed a league-leading 0.574 fantasy points per actual pass attempt. Think about that for a minute. If an average quarterback threw the ball just 35 times, they’d score 20.1 fantasy points. That’s where the lone concern lies with Trubisky this week, as the Jaguars opponents have thrown the ball on just 52.1 percent of dropbacks this year, which is the third-lowest mark in the league. Still, the Jaguars are one of the four teams in the NFL who’ve allowed 30-plus points per game to their opponents, while the Bears offense has generated at least 30 points in each of their last three games. He comes with the possibility of limited pass attempts, but in this matchup, we should see Matt Nagy try to shift some confidence to his young quarterback. He should be considered a mid-to-high-end QB2 for this contest.

Gardner Minshew: It wasn’t the prettiest way for Minshew to finish with 15.9 fantasy points last week, but he did. The Ravens put him in a hole early and never looked back. They also hogged the time of possession, which limited Minshew to just 29 pass attempts. We shrug off Minshew as just another quarterback, but here are his fantasy finishes in the games he’s started: 13-9-31-13-13-12-14-23. He’s been a top-14 quarterback in 6-of-8 starts, which certainly makes him a viable streamer. It seems the Bears defense has started to slip a bit, as there have been some solid fantasy days against them as of late, though a lot of that stems from the 65.9 plays per game they’re facing, as they still allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per offensive snap. Would you feel confident playing Minshew against the Bengals?

Crazy, right? Each of the last five quarterbacks who’ve played against the Bears have finished as the QB17 or better, including two top-five performances (Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford). The Bears allowed just four passing touchdowns over their first six games, but have allowed 18 passing touchdowns over their last eight games. Minshew comes with some risk as a streamer in 1QB formats, but he’s perfectly fine to play as a QB2 in Superflex/2QB formats.

RBs
David Montgomery: You can mock Montgomery for being a below average running back last year, but that wasn’t the case in 2020. According to NFL’s NextGenStats, there are just seven running backs who’ve finished with 100 rushing yards over what they’ve been expected to get this year, and Montgomery is one of them. Based on the average number of defenders in the box, yards before contact, and broken tackles, Montgomery has averaged 0.54 yards per carry more than he’s been expected to (11th-highest in football). After playing extremely well against the Vikings run defense, we’re extremely confident in Montgomery while playing for a Bears offense that’s suddenly scored 25-plus points in four straight games, including 30-plus points in each of the last three games. The Jaguars have allowed 1.57 PPR points per offensive play this year, which is behind only the Lions and Falcons. When looking at efficiency, running backs have averaged the fifth-most fantasy points per weighted opportunity against them, behind only the Lions, Texans, Packers, and Raiders. We’ve already seen Montgomery crush three of those teams in the last month. It’s not just efficiency, as they’ve also faced more running back touches (440) than any other team in the league. There are just five teams in the NFL who’ve allowed more than 218.0 fantasy points on the ground to running backs, and the 240.5 fantasy points the Jaguars have allowed certainly qualifies. We’ve watched seven different running backs finish as top-10 options against the Jaguars, and Montgomery should be the eighth this week.

James Robinson: He was a bit banged up coming into the game against the Ravens last week, but he also suffered an ankle injury in that game, which has his Week 16 status in question. He still finished with 19 of the Jaguars 23 running back touches in that game, so he must not have been too banged up. Still, pay attention to the notes at the bottom of this paragraph on Saturday morning, as I’ll update his outlook. The Bears have allowed 4.14 yards per carry on the year, but their schedule has been one of the toughest in the league, so the fact that it’s still below the league average is something. There have been 13 running backs who’ve seen at least 15 touches against the Bears, and while each of them finished with at least 55 total yards, just three of them have finished better than the RB15. They are one of just two teams who’ve still yet to allow a receiving touchdown to a running back, and that’s despite seeing a solid 81 targets. That’s likely part of the reason that Football Outsiders has the Bears ranked as the No. 3 DVOA defense against pass-catching running backs. In the end, the Bears have allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points per weighted opportunity to running backs. When you factor in the level of competition they’ve played, it only gets worse. Running backs have averaged 0.15 fewer PPR points per touch against the Bears than they have in non-Bears matchups, making it the toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for running backs from an efficiency standpoint. If Robinson practices and suits up, you’re still playing him as a mid-to-high-end RB2 with his guaranteed touches, but don’t expect him to carry your squad. *Update* Robinson did not practice all week, though still got the questionable tag, so he’s not out, but you have to think that even if he does play, he may be a tad limited. Move him down into the iffy RB2 territory and have a backup plan in place. If he sits, Devine Ozigbo would be an RB4 option, while Dare Ogunbowale would be in the RB4/5 territory. 

WRs
Allen Robinson: The Bears went with a run-heavy attack last week, which led to Robinson getting just five targets, though that was a 23.8 percent target share. Still, Robinson managed to post 83 yards, making it 11-of-14 games where he’s finished with 70-plus yards, which is impressive considering the struggles they’ve had at quarterback this year. Heading into Week 16, Robinson is the WR9 in PPR formats. This is a very similar matchup to last week, as the Vikings had allowed the second-most fantasy points per target to receivers, while the Jaguars allow the fourth-most points per target (1.98). Take a look at this:

The Jaguars have only been getting worse as the year’s gone on, as injuries have piled up. They’ve been without C.J. Henderson for the last six games, while missing Sidney Jones for much of that time as well. The starting cornerbacks last week were Greg Mabin and Chris Claybrooks, a duo that’s allowed 40-of-62 passing for 599 yards and nine touchdowns over the course of their careers. That’s nearly 10.0 yards per target and a touchdown every 6.9 targets. There have been 10 wide receivers who’ve finished with 20-plus PPR points against the Jaguars, highlighting the ceiling available to Robinson, who should be in lineups as a WR1. We also can’t forget the revenge game narrative, right? *Update* Robinson popped up with a hamstring injury mid-week, which is never good, but he did return to a full practice on Friday, so we have to hope it’s more preventative than anything.

Darnell Mooney: He’s seen five-plus targets in 10-of-14 games this year, so when he scores, it naturally leads fantasy managers to wonder if he’s a viable option. Well, considering he’s finished with fewer than 50 yards in 12-of-14 games, the answer is probably going to be “no.” If there’s any team that might make you wonder, it’s the Jaguars who’ve allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to the position despite seeing the 20th-most targets. If Sidney Jones can’t return, they’re running out a safety and an undrafted rookie starting on the perimeter. There have now been 13 wide receivers who’ve finished as the WR26 or better against the Jaguars in their last eight games, which is quite appealing, but the ultimate cause for concern is the fact that the Bears threw the ball just 21 times last week while out in front of the Vikings. They’re expected to win this game as well, so when you factor in Allen Robinson‘s target share, it wouldn’t leave a whole lot of room for Mooney to produce. He’s a hail-mary WR5 option, and one who could produce if the Bears let Trubisky drop back to pass a bit more in this contest.

D.J. Chark: The streak continued in Week 15, though it’s not a good one. It’s now been five straight weeks where he’s failed to finish as a top-36 receiver, and going back even further, he’s finished as a top-36 option just once since Week 4. The targets aren’t the problem, as he’s seen at least five targets in each of his last eight games, including seven-plus targets in six of them. He’s now gone through three quarterbacks, so maybe they’re not the issue? The matchup this week is a tough one to get back on track, though it may not be as tough as initially thought. He plays 52 percent of his snaps at LWR while playing just 29.5 percent of his snaps at RWR, which is where Kyle Fuller plays. He’s allowed just 0.75 yards per snap in his coverage, which ranks as the eighth-lowest number among cornerbacks who’ve played 200-plus snaps in coverage. On the other side, rookie Jaylon Johnson is dealing with a shoulder injury (missed Week 15) and has struggled as the year’s gone on. His replacement, Duke Shelley, allowed 7-of-8 passing for 80 yards to the Vikings receivers last week. Football Outsiders has the Bears listed as the No. 1 defense in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers, which is certainly the role that Chark plays in this offense, but he may have caught the Bears defense at the right time. Still, Chark has topped 56 yards once since Week 4 while the Bears have allowed just 12 wide receivers to top 60 yards against them all season. He should be considered a low-end WR3/high-end WR4 whose matchup is better than expected.

Keelan Cole: We were hoping for a bump in his production with Minshew back under center, but we also knew the matchup with Marlon Humphrey was a bad one. Fantasy managers won’t want to play a receiver who’s posted 22 yards or less in two of his last three games, but if there’s a bright spot, it’s his matchup with the Bears. “Wait, what? The Bears are the No. 5 team in the league against wide receivers!” That’s true but it also doesn’t tell the whole story, as they’ve really been struggling defending the slot as of late. Buster Skrine has missed the last two weeks, which we didn’t know if it was a downgrade for the defense, as he’d allowed the most yardage in the league at the time of his injury. His replacements, Kindle Vildor and Duke Shelley, have allowed 12-of-15 passing for 125 yards and a touchdown in their coverage. It’s tough to trust Cole, but if you’re looking for a WR5 who has a better matchup than most think, he could be it.

TEs
Cole Kmet and Jimmy Graham: I know what you’re thinking. You don’t want to trust Kmet after a two-target game against the Vikings. I get it but stay with me here. Kmet played 100 percent of the Bears snaps last week. 100. That’s extremely rare for a tight end, but we’ve seen his snap counts rising over the last month, and they’re trusting him when they need to win most. His two targets stemmed from the fact that Trubisky threw the ball just 21 times. While it’s a possibility that happens again, Kmet should be productive in this game when targeted. The Jaguars have allowed a league-high 2.36 PPR points per target to tight ends, so it’s kind of sad we can’t play either of these tight ends with 100 percent confidence. The 8.78 yards per target they’ve allowed ranks second to the Jets, while the touchdown they’ve allowed every 7.5 targets is more often than any other team in the league. It hasn’t been competition, either, as tight ends have averaged 0.42 more PPR points per target against the Jaguars than they have in non-Jaguars matchups, making this the second-most efficient matchup in the league. There have been 11 different tight ends who’ve finished with 47 yards and/or a touchdown against the Jaguars. Kmet isn’t the safest option with the drop in pass attempts, but if you’re wanting to play the matchup, it doesn’t get much better than this. Don’t forget he saw seven targets in each of the previous two games.

Tyler Eifert: He was someone we talked about last week as a desperation option for streamers, so to see him walk away with three catches for 51 yards, it’s not the worst-case scenario. His targets have kind of been all over the place this year, though he has seen at least four targets in six of his last seven games. That’s a decent number for those who are desperate at the position, and the matchup this week is one of the better ones in the league. Of the production the Bears have allowed to skill-position players, tight ends have accounted for a big chunk of it. The 23.1 percent of production they’ve accumulated ranks as highest mark in the league, while no other team is over 21.7 percent. To no surprise, they’ve also seen a 23.7 percent target share, the third-highest mark in the league. All in all, they’ve allowed 16.0 PPR points per game to tight ends, which is more than any team not named the Jets. They’ve now allowed a top-12 tight end in seven of their last eight games, with the one exception being Jordan Akins, who let a touchdown bounce off his chest. Eifert should be considered a middling TE2 who just might pay off to those who take the plunge.

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