Lynn Bowden Jr. is just a rookie, but he’s already been through quite a few transitions in his short career. In college, he went from running back to wide receiver to quarterback; in the NFL, he’s already gone from running back to slot wide receiver. He’s also gone through two different NFL teams in one season.
While Bowden isn’t the most exciting waiver pickup, he’s poised to see tons of work on the banged-up Miami Dolphins. The team’s leading receiver, DeVante Parker, left last week’s game with a leg injury, and his status for next week is in doubt. Their leading tight end, Mike Gesicki, left with a shoulder injury. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa said that the tight end was “really hurting,” so there’s some reason to suspect that Gesicki might miss a game or two. Return specialist and reserve receiver Jakeem Grant also left with a leg injury and is “iffy, at best” for Week 15.
These injuries took place with running backs Matt Breida and Myles Gaskin on the COVID-19/reserve list — and Salvon Ahmed still nursing a shoulder injury. Ahmed failed to practice at all last week, and he probably won’t be this week. Likewise, Gaskin was sent to reserve last Sunday should miss Week 15.
Miami could be down to just Bowden, Grant (if healthy), Mack Hollins, and Antonio Callaway at receiver this week. Of these options, I think Bowden has the highest floor, and he’s worth picking up as a WR4/FLEX in PPR formats.
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Player Profile
Bowden went to the Raiders in the third round, and he got some post-draft hype as a mid-to-late-round dynasty sleeper. It was initially unclear how the Raiders intended to use him, as they drafted him at running back. Whatever they had planned, it never materialized, and the Raiders shipped Bowden and a sixth-round pick to Miami for a fourth-rounder before he ever played a down for them. Controversy surrounded the decision after The Athletic reported that off-the-field issues played a role, but Mayock interjected, stating that the move “was a football decision only.”
Bowden went in the third round because of two factors: his intelligence and his raw athleticism. The rookie blew Mayock and Jon Gruden away with his ability to quickly digest their offense during a quick combine meeting.
“He understood all our concepts,” Mayock said in April. “He walked out of the room, and Jon and I were like, ‘that’s a frickin’ Raider!'”
Although things didn’t pan out in Las Vegas, Bowden’s high football IQ remains a part of his appeal.
Bowden’s athleticism is another factor that draws me to him. Unfortunately, we don’t have that much hard data to work with, as a hamstring strain caused Bowden to skip the 40-yard dash, three-cone drill, and shuttles at the NFL Combine. He had planned to compensate with a strong Pro Day, but the coronavirus led to its cancellation.
Bowden claims to have run a 4.4-to 4.5-second 40-yard dash time, which would put him somewhere around Chase Claypool (4.42, T13), Jerry Jeudy (4.45, T18), and CeeDee Lamb (4.5, NR). That’s rock-solid speed, and if you want to get a sense of his agility, I would spend some time watching his college highlights.
State of the Offense
The Dolphins are desperate for pass-catchers. As I outlined above, Parker, Gesicki, Grant, Gaskin, and Williams are all banged-up, on reserve, or both. Those are the team’s top-five target leaders. The player who ranks sixth in targets, Isaiah Ford, has just returned to Miami’s practice squad. Those six players account for 78% of Miami’s targets.
Enter Lynn Bowden. He’s been trending up of late, as he’s gotten the slot work vacated by Ford.
Miami Dolphins slot snaps, per @PFF, over the last two weeks:
3. DeVante Parker, 20
2. Mike Gesicki, 32
1. Lynn Bowden, 54— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) December 14, 2020
Bowden was Miami’s leading receiver last week. He earned a team-high nine targets, and he turned them into seven catches for 82 yards. Even if the Dolphins get Grant or Parker back, Bowden should have a secure role in the slot, and that’s what gives him his fantasy value.
Bowden’s Outlook
Bowden will play the Patriots in Week 15. He’ll then play a revenge game against the Raiders in Week 16, and with how the Raiders organization treated him, I’m excited to see the energy he’ll bring to that game.
As far as matchups go, the Patriots are a tough one, as they give up the fifth-fewest points per game to the position. That said, they have been beatable in the slot — especially in the red zone. Cooper Kupp nabbed five passes for 33 yards and a score in Week 14, Randall Cobb caught two passes for seven yards and a score in Week 11, Jamison Crowder caught two passes for 26 yards and a score in Week 9, Hunter Renfrow caught six passes for 84 yards and a score in Week 3, and Tyler Lockett nabbed seven passes for 67 yards and a score in Week 2.
To be fair, New England has also shut down some strong slot receivers this year. Cole Beasley caught only two passes for 24 yards in Week 8, while Keenan Allen caught only five passes for 48 yards in Week 13. That said, both Beasley and Allen were playing on offenses with many other mouths to feed, which is a problem Bowden won’t have.
Lynn Bowden should be a volume-based, low-end WR4/FLEX for his Week 15 bout with the Patriots. He may need to score a touchdown to hit value against them. However, he could post a ton of points against Las Vegas (12th-worst defense against opposing wideouts) in Week 16, and he’s at least worth stashing given Miami’s plethora of offensive injuries.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.
