Every lineup decision feels astronomical throughout the fantasy football season. But if you mess up, a shot at redemption is right around the corner. Making a wrong call that costs you a Week 14 playoff matchup, on the other hand, will fester inside your mind for months.

So yeah, no pressure.

If you’re still playing for something meaningful, chances are you’ve made some wise decisions this season. You’ve probably haven’t played it safe every week either. Don’t be afraid to sit a big name or early pick who isn’t getting the job done. Some hot hands, meanwhile, have earned a spot to play for all the marbles. Of course, that’s not always the case.

Also, the Cowboys and Ravens played a football game Tuesday right after Dez Bryant — who was warming up and hugging old teammates — tested positive for COVID-19 shortly before kickoff. It’s imperative to have backup plans in place, particularly for both Week 14 games connected to these two squads. Try to be smarter than the NFL when managing your fake football teams.

The following Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) were taken on Tuesday evening and apply to half-PPR formats.

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Quarterback

Start: Josh Allen (BUF) vs. PIT: QB10 ECR
It’s possible some experts locked in their early Week 14 rankings before Allen torched the 49ers for 375 passing yards and four touchdowns on Monday Night Football. A QB10 ECR suggests he’s far from an automatic start. It’s important to note, however, that nobody ranked above him is an available streamer. Don’t outthink yourself here. The Steelers are undoubtedly a stellar defense, ranking second against the pass and third in opposing yards per attempt. They also haven’t exactly faced the cream of the crop, already encountering the Bengals, Jaguars, Broncos, and the entire NFC East. Each of the three top-12 quarterbacks they’ve opposed in terms of 2020 fantasy scoring (Deshaun Watson, Ryan Tannehill, and Lamar Jackson) finished their matchup against Pittsburgh as the week’s QB17. That suggests a far lower ceiling than usual for Allen, but managers can reasonably expect them to follow that lead with at least 17 or 18 fantasy points. Having already reached 25 fantasy points seven times, he just might raise the bar even in a tough matchup. Only the Rams place above the Steelers in passing defense; Allen carved them up for 311 passing yards and five total touchdowns in Week 3.

Start: Taysom Hill (NO) at PHI: QB11 ECR
Drew Brees is eligible to come off the IR this week. If so, toss him back into starting lineups as a low-end QB1. Since the Saints have gone 3-0 without the future Hall of Famer, they don’t need to rush him back against the 3-8-1 Eagles. Hill can get the job done for New Orleans and fantasy managers alike. He’s finished his three starts as the QB4, QB11, and QB7, gaining 176 yards and two touchdowns on the ground with 543 yards and two more scores through the air. Only the 49ers have ceded more rushing yards to quarterbacks than the Eagles, per NFL.com. They’ve also surrendered a 67.2% completion rate, so Hill can keep the chains moving in a game-manager role.

Sit: Kirk Cousins (MIN) at TB: QB17 ECR
Cousins has cleared 300 passing yards with three passing touchdowns in each of the last three games. His recent onslaught came in a trio of home contests against the Cowboys, Panthers, and Jaguars. Prior to their Week 13 bye, the Buccaneers got shredded for a combined 838 passing yards and six touchdowns in 27-24 losses to the Rams and Chiefs. Both teams wisely abandoned the run against the NFL’s best rushing defense. The Vikings are far less likely to make that choice with Dalvin Cook in their backfield. Cousins had previously endured some clunkers this season, most notably in road losses to the Colts and Packers. He has six touchdowns with an average of 12.2 fantasy points in five away games, so playing the hot hand could burn you severely.

Sit: Cam Newton (NE) at LAR: QB19 ECR
The Rams should have little trouble remaining the league’s top-ranked passing defense following Thursday night’s matchup with New England. Newton has thrown for 153 passing yards on 37 attempts in the past two games combined. He settled for 69 aerial yards in last Sunday’s 45-0 win over the Chargers. Of course, it won’t matter much if he punches in another two rushing touchdowns. Still, the fact that he could still underwhelm with only one rushing score is hardly a glowing vote of confidence for a fantasy QB1.

Running Back

Start: Wayne Gallman Jr. (NYG) vs. ARI: RB14 ECR
Alfred Morris vultured two touchdowns in a 17-12 upset over the Seahawks, who rank fifth in rushing defense and last against the pass. With those factors foreboding fantasy calamity, Gallman still ran for 135 yards. That’s the sign of a set-and-forget starter. He hasn’t finished lower than RB16 since replacing Devontae Freeman in Week 7. Freeman was eligible to come off the injured reserve this week, but the Giants placed him on the reserve/COVID-19 list.

Start: Giovani Bernard (CIN) vs. DAL: RB23 ECR
This is all about the matchup. Few will love the idea of starting Bernard, who has totaled 180 yards and no touchdowns in the last four games. But before dropping Joe Mixon’s replacement, consider that three of those opponents (Giants, Steelers, Washington) boast top-10 rushing defenses. The Cowboys, meanwhile, rank last after the Ravens pulverized them for 294 rushing yards Tuesday night. They previously gave up 160 total yards and a touchdown to Dalvin Cook in Week 11 and three touchdowns to Antonio Gibson on Thanksgiving. He may not be getting as full a workload as Mixon, but 12-15 touches could lead to a huge day for Bernard.

Start: Cam Akers (LAR) vs. NE: RB24 ECR
Trusting a Rams running back has already backfired with Darrell Henderson. It’s possible Akers’ emergence is also fool’s gold. Or maybe a league-winner is blossoming in front of our eyes. After out-performing Henderson and Malcolm Brown in limited touches for weeks, the rookie was finally allotted a season-high 21 carries last weekend. He managed an inefficient 72 yards, but fantasy backers also received a touchdown and a 22-yard catch for their troubles. Akers has crossed the pylon in each of the last three games, and his snap count skyrocketed from 17 to a season-high 52 in Week 13. While far from a lock, he’s a high-upside RB2/flex choice in Thursday night’s home matchup against the Patriots.

Sit: Miles Sanders (PHI) vs. NO: RB18 ECR
Perhaps abandoning Sanders is a bit hasty, but fantasy managers can’t afford to risk another dud in the playoffs. After amassing just 22 yards against the Seahawks in Week 12, he barely topped it with 31 last Sunday. He had previously averaged 17 touches per game before combining to accrue 18 (16 rushes, two receptions) in those misfires. Sanders, who played over three-quarters in each of his first four games prior to leaving Week 6 early with a knee injury, has only seen the field for 56-61% of Philadelphia’s offensive snaps in the past three contests. If this wasn’t all enough to scare everyone into benching the high draft pick, Sanders will start alongside a new quarterback (Jalen Hurts) against a Saints defense permitting the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.

Sit: David Johnson (HOU) at CHI: RB25 ECR
Johnson returned from a three-game absence to produce an uninspiring, but effective 44 yards and a touchdown against the Colts. He received just 10 carries while Duke Johnson remained involved in the passing game. Although Chicago’s defense has backslid against the Packers and Lions, Deshaun Watson might have trouble leading the Texans to regular red-zone visits without Will Fuller. David Johnson won’t have a day to write home about without a score. Both he and the Bears average 4.0 yards per carry gained and allowed, respectively, and he’s allotted a modest 12.6 handoffs per game. He’s also gotten held without a catch in his last two appearances.

Sit: Todd Gurley (ATL) at LAC: RB29 ECR
This is a tougher call than it seems. Gurley’s last two flops before and after missing Week 12 with a knee injury were against New Orleans’ aforementioned elite run-stopping unit. He found the end zone in seven of his previous nine games. On the other hand, he’s averaging a moribund 3.6 yards per carry while drawing just 25 targets all season. Even against a far weaker Chargers defense relinquishing 4.6 yards per run, you’ll likely need a touchdown to derive any value. It’s a reasonable bet as a flex play in non-PPR leagues, but ultimately a risky one considering he played just one-third of Atlanta’s snaps in last Sunday’s return.

Wide Receiver

Start: Corey Davis (TEN) at JAC: WR22 ECR
At this time two weeks ago, Davis was WR50 in the Week 12 ECR. He’s now WR22, and if anything, he could climb a few spots higher. Hiding in A.J. Brown’s shadow all season, Davis narrowly trails Julio Jones and Allen Robinson with 13.1 fantasy points per game. He’s averaging 80.1 receiving yards per contest despite putting up a zero against the Bears in Week 9. Each of his only other games below 67 yards came with a touchdown. The post-hype superstar could etch his name in fantasy football lore against a Jaguars defense allowing an NFL-worst 8.2 yards per pass attempt.

Start: Marvin Jones Jr. (DET) vs. GB: WR29 ECR
In five games without Kenny Golladay since the start of Week 9, Jones is the WR9 with 354 receiving yards and three touchdowns. He has garnered a dozen targets in back-to-back games, leading him to a 24.2% target share during this five-game stretch. Even with Golladay active, Jones found the end zone against Green Bay in Week 2. Detroit is likely to again trail throughout the NFC North encounter, which could mean another hefty workload if Golladay misses his sixth straight game. Jones could still potentially hold his own as a low-end WR3 if his star teammate returns.

Start: Brandon Aiyuk (SF) vs. WAS: WR34 ECR
A hamstring injury, positive COVID-19 test, and Week 11 bye have limited his presence, but here are Aiyuk’s last four stat lines:

Not bad for the week’s 34th-ranked receiver. He’ll go up against Washington’s No. 3 passing defense, but we’ve seen him handle the fourth-rated unit (New Orleans) with Nick Mullens under center last month. With 206 receiving yards in two games since returning from a hamstring injury, Deebo Samuel is a strong play as well.

Sit: DeVante Parker (MIA) vs. KC: WR24 ECR
The Dolphins taunted us with a brief reminder of Parker’s glory days when he parlayed 14 targets into 119 receiving yards during Ryan Fitzpatrick’s Week 12 return under center. When they switched back to Tua Tagovailoa, Miami’s top wideout settled for 35 yards against a vulnerable Bengals secondary. Parker has posted just 194 receiving yards in five games started by Tagovailoa. He’s a volatile WR3 — and not as strong of one as the early ECR suggests — against Kansas City’s eighth-ranked passing offense.

Sit: D.J. Chark (JAC) vs. TEN: WR30 ECR
Chark has had one above-average fantasy week over the last two months. It was his only game against the AFC South (146 yards and a TD vs. Houston in Week 9) during that window, so benching him against a Titans defense demolished by Baker Mayfield could rob disappointed investors of another outburst. Even in the right matchup, that’s far from a given. Collin Johnson gives Jacksonville yet another pass-catcher capable of going off on any given week. In fact, no wide receiver besides Johnson has offered 45 receiving yards or more in either of Mike Glennon’s two starts.

Sit: Tyler Boyd (CIN) vs. DAL: WR36 ECR
Tyler Boyd did all of the work to break off a 72-yard touchdown before getting ejected for a sideline skirmish with Xavien Howard. His previous biggest play of the season went for 25 yards, and the Bengals somehow still only finished Week 13 with 193 passing yards on 17 completions. Despite hosting the Cowboys, it’s difficult to trust any Cincinnati receivers.

Tight End

Start: Eric Ebron (PIT) at BUF: TE8 ECR
By drawing 11 targets in back-to-back games, Ebron joins a selective list of tight ends (Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, George Kittle, Zach Ertz, and Evan Engram) to receive double-digit targets more than once this season. Kelce and Engram are the only others to do so in consecutive contests. Nobody has attempted more passes than Ben Roethlisberger, which has led to plenty of opportunities for Ebron alongside Pittsburgh’s many talented wide receivers. He’s cashed in with a solid floor, offering at least eight half-PPR points in six of his last seven games. The Bills have ceded the second-most receiving yards to tight ends, per NFL.com, cementing Ebron comfortably as a top-10 play.

Start: Logan Thomas (WAS) at SF: TE12 ECR
We’ve been playing an agonizing game of “He loves me, he loves me not” with Thomas all season. Two weeks ago, I correctly predicted that he’d score a touchdown since I put him in the Sit section. Yet for all his ups and downs, he’s the TE8 this season and TE6 since Alex Smith took over as Washington’s starting quarterback in Week 9. Thomas had easily his best game of the season Monday night, securing all nine targets for 98 yards and a touchdown against a Steelers defense that had previously yielded an NFL-low 3.7 fantasy points per game to tight ends. Thomas will have to deliver an encore in another brutal matchup, as the 49ers entered Week 14 right behind Pittsburgh with 4.1 fantasy points allowed to the position. It’s no longer looking like a bad wager; Thomas played all 72 snaps on Monday Night Football, and Smith may have to keep throwing often if Antonio Gibson is ruled out.

Sit: Dallas Goedert (PHI) vs. NO: TE10 ECR
You might be in the position of having no better options. Goedert has spent the past month rising back up the position’s ranks, recording 251 yards on 29 targets over his last four games. That includes 66 yards on seven targets in Week 13 despite Zach Ertz returning to Philadelphia’s lineup. Goedert clearly had Carson Wentz’s eye, but the same won’t necessarily be true for Jalen Hurts. The matchup makes matter worse, as the Saints have already held Rob Gronkowski (twice), T.J. Hockenson, Jimmy Graham, Hayden Hurst (twice), and Noah Fant (in the game Denver played without a quarterback) to under 15 yards this season. A quarterback change and rough opponent combine to make a typically high-floor option a borderline starter who’s difficult to project.

Sit: Hayden Hurst (ATL) at LAC: TE14 ECR
Hurst has found himself in the Start section often this season for his relatively high floor. The Saints changed that, holding him catchless in Week 11 and to one nine-yard grab in Week 13’s rematch. Like Gurley, he could rebound in a much better matchup against the Chargers. Since he’s yet to exceed 72 yards in a single game, the ceiling isn’t high enough to take that chance if you can play Thomas or Dalton Schultz instead.

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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.