After a disappointing Week 13, last week was much better for us. The only players that struggled were our GPP options but that’s part of the reason why we considered them GPP players in the first place. Hitting on the cash game plays is the most important thing because that’s what you need to build around. I feel very confident with those options on this slate, so, let’s get into them!
If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel.
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Thursday/Saturday/Monday
Thursday’s game gives us the Las Vegas Raiders hosting the Los Angeles Chargers. This should be a shootout between two bad defenses, with Justin Herbert and Derek Carr being easy choices. Austin Ekeler is also hard to fade, with Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, Henry Ruggs, and Nelson Agholor looking like decent values as well.
As for Saturday, we get the Buffalo Bills facing the Denver Broncos and the Green Bay Packers welcoming the Carolina Panthers to Lambeau. Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers are the clear-cut top quarterbacks while Aaron Jones and Mike Davis are the best backs available. Davante Adams is the best receiving option on the board, with Stefon Diggs as a close second. Some good values include Robby Anderson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jerry Jeudy, Zach Moss, and the Buffalo D/ST
The Monday Night matchup features the Cincinnati Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers. It’s hard to trust any of the Cincy fantasy players but you could go with Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins or Giovani Bernard. As for Pittsburgh, Ben Roethlisberger, James Conner, Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster all look like great picks. James Washington, Eric Ebron, and the Pittsburgh D/ST are good cheaper options to build a lineup.
Main Slate
Quarterback of the Week
Taysom Hill (NO) $6,000 vs. KC
Hill has been a pleasant surprise for the Saints and an absolute fantasy gem since taking over quarterback duties. In his four starts this season, Hill has scored at least 18.5 DK points in all of them while averaging 22.3 DraftKings points per game. He’s done that damage despite averaging fewer than 30 pass attempts per game, doing a ton of damage on the ground. One would believe that this is a game where New Orleans will have to throw, with this total sitting at 52 and the Saints being an underdog. We also adore this matchup, with the Chiefs owning a 29th OPRK against opposing quarterbacks. If Drew Brees does return, he’s a great option as well.
Nick Mullens is a sneaky pick at $5,100 against the dreadful Dallas defense.
Cash Game Running Back
J.K. Dobbins (BAL) $5,900 vs. JAX
Obviously, Derrick Henry would be an easy choice here against the Detroit Lions but you guys are surely privy to that already. We’re going to go much cheaper with Dobbins, who has established himself as the best back in Baltimore. Mark Ingram didn’t even receive a carry on Monday night and it appears Dobbins is only battling Gus Edwards for touches. J.K. is the guy though, receiving at least 11 carries in three-straight fixtures. That has led to a 13-point floor in that span and this is easily his best matchup of the season. Not only is Baltimore a 13-point favorite, but Jacksonville also surrenders the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this year.
The aforementioned Henry is the best play on the board but Cam Akers is another good cash game option against the Jets.
GPP Running Back
David Johnson (HOU) $5,100 at IND
This is certainly a risky option but DJ has been too valuable to be this cheap. That’s why he’s in the GPP section though and he’s certainly worth a shot at $5,100. The biggest reason we like him here is his role, averaging 14 carries in his 11 healthy games this season. He’s also getting all of the goal-line work which has led to a 12-point average in those games. There are not many players around $5K who get off the bench, let alone average double-digit fantasy points. Indy’s defense has hit a regression wall recently too, allowing 30.8 points per game across their last four fixtures.
J.D. McKissic could see a ton of targets against a slipshod Seattle secondary.
Cash Game Wide Receiver
Michael Thomas (NO) $7,200 vs. KC
If we’re going to trust Taysom as a passer, we have to love his top target. Thomas is certainly that, attaining a 39.2 percent target share since Week 11. That happens to be the highest percentage in the NFL and it’s led to him recording at least eight receptions in three of those four fixtures. That’s big news with the Saints needing to keep up with the Chiefs in this game, especially with KC allowing such good numbers to opposing quarterbacks.
If Julio Jones is out again, Calvin Ridley is one of the best plays on the board.
GPP Wide Receiver
Kendrick Bourne (SF) $4,100 at DAL
Many people may wonder about this one but Bourne is actually my favorite value play of the week. The biggest reason why is because of the injuries, with George Kittle and Deebo Samuel both missing this game. That leaves a ton of targets and usage on the field, with Bourne steeping into Samuel’s role. That was evident in Week 14, with KB playing 89 percent of the team’s snaps. He’s also been quietly productive recently too, scoring at least 6.4 DK in five-straight while averaging 10.4 fantasy points per game in that span. The icing on the cake is this matchup though, with Dallas surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this year.
Marvin Jones Jr. has been Matthew Stafford’s top target and could have success against a 27th-ranked Tennesse secondary.
Tight End of the Week
Zach Ertz (PHI) $3,400 at ARI
This play obviously has its fair share of risk but Ertz only needs four catches and 40 yards to reach value at this sort of price tag. We all know that Ertz has been a Top-3 tight end over the past few seasons and it’s just a matter of time before he gets back to that. His return from injury limited his role two weeks ago but generating a 72 percent snap share last week is a good sign going forward. That means 80-90 percent looks likely here and that’s huge news considering Ertz regularly averaged 10 targets per game in this role throughout most of his career. That makes this $3,400 price tag a huge bargain and we’re certainly not worried about a struggling Cardinals defense.
If you want to pay up, Travis Kelce is always a good choice.
D/ST of the Week
Los Angeles Rams $4,500 vs. NYJ
Going with the highest-priced option is not always the wisest decision but this literally feels like a can’t-miss D/ST. The reason for that is because we have the best defense in the NFL facing the worst offense. It’s not just that, with the Jets sitting 30th in OPRK against D/STs and the Rams averaging the third-most DK points of the D/STs. That’s why they enter this matchup as a 17-point favorite and a game total sitting at 44, which would project the Jets to finish with just 13 points.
The Baltimore Ravens D/ST are also a great option against a terrible Jaguars offense.
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.
