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Yards Created Over Expected: Second Quarter Report (2020 Fantasy Football)

Yards Created Over Expected: Second Quarter Report (2020 Fantasy Football)

Yards Created is one of the best ways to track a running back’s performance. While no one metric is perfect, yards created through analytics determines how many yards a running back is expecting to gain and whether they perform above or below expected. This is measured by how many times they face stacked boxes, how many yards their offensive line blocked for them, their yards created before contact when adjusting for the offensive line, and several other metrics. To understand the entire process, read the Best and Worst Running Backs at Creating Yards in 2019.

Throughout the season, we’ll be tracking which running backs excelled or faltered at creating yards each game. Running backs who flourish at creating for themselves are typically given more volume, and vice versa, although there are exceptions (running backs on steep contracts, for example). Remember that this Yards Created metric is nearly three times as sticky when compared to standard yards per carry year-to-year.

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This metric will gain stability after each passing week of the season, and with eight weeks in the books, it’s begun to paint a far better picture of the best and worst backs in the league. Let’s take a look at the best and worst backs at creating yards in the first half of the season. 

Quick Reads:

  • Jonathan Taylor has a broken tackle rate of only 5%, one of the lowest marks in the league.
  • Josh Jacobs has seen the highest rate of stacked defensive fronts (28%) of any player with at least 100 touches.
  • Despite the seventh-worst run-blocking offensive line, Phillip Lindsay ranks third among active players in creating yards.

Biggest Movers Since Week 4:

Best RBs at Creating Yards: First Half of the Season

1. Dalvin Cook (MIN): +0.92 YCOE (Yards Created Over Expected/Attempt)
With the second-highest broken tackle rate in the league at 24.6%, Cook has been dominating all year long. He was second in yards created after four weeks and now sits on top of the mountain. An added luxury of Minnesota’s top-five offensive line in run-blocking is letting his skills shine. He is making his case for the best running back in the league and should continue to do so for the remainder of the season.

2. JK Dobbins (BAL): +0.89 YCOE
Dobbins’ small sample size, which was the tiniest accepted, means that this number remains a bit volatile. That said, Dobbins has become the best runner of the rookie class, especially with his dominating performance against the Steelers’ top-graded run defense last week. He is ranking as a top-five elusive back in the class with an absurd Adjusted Yards Before Contact of 3.81 yards. This is better than some players’ overall YPC. Simply remarkable.

3. Phillip Lindsay (DEN): +0.88 YCOE
Despite an identical offensive line and defensive stacked front percentage, Phillip Lindsay is outperforming teammate Melvin Gordon by a landslide. He is outperforming him most in adjusted yards before contact by nearly three yards. Lindsay’s +0.88 YCOE beats Gordon’s -0.14 YCOE by a full yard. The two-time 1,000-yard rusher missed some games, so people forgot just how good he is. He should continue to be one of the top runners in the league, although he will cede some targets and goal-line work to Gordon.

Worst RBs at Creating Yards

49th of 49. Frank Gore (NYJ): -0.72 YCOE
The exact same back who was here four weeks ago returns. He was listed as a drop candidate, and even the departure of Le’Veon Bell couldn’t breathe life back into his legs again. The Jets’ offense is putrid, and other backs are starting to carry more work. Father Time has finally triumphed over the legend.

48. Joshua Kelley (LAC): -0.67 YCOE
Another back in the exact same position in implied Yards Created. With how Kelley’s workload has changed of late, it’s looking like a good indicator of a back’s talent and eventual increases or decreases in his usage. Justin Jackson is the lead back until Austin Ekeler returns, and I’m not convinced Kelley will be able to maintain a somewhat significant role without injuries. He has a few possible weeks left of required usage before he gets phased out completely.

47. Devonta Freeman (NYG): -0.65 YCOE
Rent-A-RB Freeman was left on the market for so long for good reason, but the Giants needed a body after Barkley went down. He will very likely go back into the renter’s market after this season, as Wayne Gallman appeared equally as capable. Dion Lewis has passing downs secured, and this offense is likely to play from behind most games. He will be little more than an emergency start for running back needed fantasy owners in scripts where they can keep the game close.

Thanks for reading, and stay golden! If you like what you learned, follow me @DavidZach16 for more interesting stats and tidbits throughout the year.

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David Zach is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive and follow him @DavidZach16.

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