When looking at an NFL DFS slate, I usually begin with these two steps:
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- Examining Implied Team Totals and Game Over/Unders
- Identifying Teams to Target and Possible Stacks
Each week, I will share my findings with you after I have completed these first two steps. Throughout this piece, I will reference implied team totals, winning probabilities, and game over/unders that are acquired from our consensus odds collected over at BettingPros.
Games/Teams to Target
- Buffalo at Arizona (Over/Under 56.0)
- Arizona Team Total: 29.0
- Buffalo Team Total: 27.0
- Seattle at Los Angeles Rams (Over/Under 55.5)
- Los Angeles Team Total: 28.5
- Seattle Team Total: 27.0
- Houston at Cleveland (Over/Under 53.0)
- Cleveland Team Total: 28.25
- Houston Team Total: 24.75
- Jacksonville at Green Bay (Over/Under 51.5)
- Green Bay Team Total: 32.5
- Jacksonville Team Total: 19.0
DFS Stacks to Target
All salaries are from FanDuel, but these stacks can be utilized on DraftKings as well.
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Jared Goff (QB – LAR):$7,400 / Robert Woods (WR – LAR): $7,200
Josh Allen returned to his early-season form in his home matchup in Week Nine against the visiting Seattle Seahawks. I think there is a great chance that Jared Goff is the next QB to have a get-right game against a struggling Seattle secondary. The days of the “Legion of Boom” are well in the rear-view mirror, as the Seahawks have now become a defense to target for opposing passing games.
Goff has not delivered a solid fantasy day since his 25 point outing on the road against Washington back on October 11th. Coming off a bye, I expect that Sean McVay and the Rams were able to put together a game plan to attack a weak Seattle secondary. While he does not possess much rushing upside, Goff has scored a couple of TDs on the ground already this year.
If you are building multiple stacks with Goff, then WR Cooper Kupp ($7,700) should be included in single-stacks or double-stacks as well. However, I’m going to highlight Woods in this piece. People are going to be all over Kupp after he saw 20 targets in the Rams’ Week Eight loss at Miami. However, in that same game, Woods was able to haul in seven of eight targets on his way to 85 receiving yards and a score. In addition, he carried the ball twice for nine yards and a TD on the ground.
Woods strikes me as a great leverage play, and he comes at a discount compared to Kupp. While we certainly hope that Woods can catch a TD from Goff, his rushing production only adds to his floor. A ceiling game for both Goff and Woods is certainly in play against a Seattle team that has allowed many passing games to shine in 2020. As always, we can look to bring it back with either WR Tyler Lockett ($7,400) or WR D.K. Metcalf ($8,300) of the Seahawks to take advantage of a game that projects to be a shootout.
Deshaun Watson (QB – HOU):$8,300 / Brandin Cooks (WR – HOU): $6,300
Both Cleveland and Houston have been part of their fair share of high-scoring affairs this season. As they get set to meet in Week Ten, the game carries a 53 point over/under, which is good enough for the third-highest on the main slate.
I’m choosing to go with the Houston side of things here, as their passing game is much more consolidated and their QB has simply played better football to this point. Watson has recorded four straight games of at least 24 FanDuel fantasy points, and he rushed for at least 20 yards in each of those games as well. The last time that Watson did not toss multiple TD passes came back in Week Two against Baltimore.
Watson could reach his ceiling against a Cleveland defense that allowed 400+ passing yards to rookie QB Joe Burrow back in Week Seven. With the Texans installed as four-point underdogs, this projects to be a competitive game in which Watson should have plenty of passing volume.
WR Will Fuller ($7,100) has been great in 2020. This is not me saying to fade him. Fuller should absolutely be in some of your tournament lineups, especially in stacks with Deshaun Watson. However, I’m once again going to highlight the less expensive WR as a stack option. Brandin Cooks is cheaper than Fuller, but he has seen the bulk of the targets over the last month.
In his past four games, Cooks has seen nine, nine, nine, and twelve targets. In the Week Nine matchup against Jacksonville, Cooks only converted three of his nine targets, but he was still able to produce 83 yards and a TD. He has seen excellent volume, and I expect a QB of Watson’s caliber to be able to connect with him more often moving forward. He is far too cheap at $6,100 in this matchup.
We will need to track QB Baker Mayfield’s health/Covid-19 protocol as the week progresses. I like this game to be a shootout so long as Mayfield starts for Cleveland. If he does, I think WR Rashard Higgins ($5,500), WR Jarvis Landry ($6,000), and TE Austin Hooper ($5,100) are all in play as bring-back options.
Drew Brees (QB – NO):$7,600 / Michael Thomas (WR – NO): $8,500
We saw vintage Drew Brees on display on Sunday night as he picked apart the Tampa Bay secondary on his way to 26 of 32 passing and four scores through the air. Brees’ 2020 fantasy output to this point can best be described as “solid”. While many could be viewing him as a floor play best for cash games, I think Brees could be deployed in tournaments for Week 10.
We last saw San Francisco get torn apart by Aaron Rodgers on Thursday night of Week 9. The Packers QB was able to shred his hometown team’s defense for 305 passing yards and four TDs despite the game never being very close. The Niners are expected to get some pieces back for Week 10, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, which would make the game more competitive. San Francisco is also a pass funnel, as they have been able to do a good job stopping the run. Therefore, the Saints could keep throwing even if they jump out to a lead. Sean Payton showed he is not afraid to do that during their win over Tampa Bay.
After his record-breaking year in 2019, here are Michael Thomas’ stats so far in 2020: 2 games, 8 catches, 68 yards, 0 TDs. That’s it. It is safe to say that fantasy owners, particularly in season-long leagues, are frustrated with the Saints’ WR. Oddly enough, both of Thomas’ games in 2020 have come against the Bucs secondary, which has been tough on opposing WRs.
Despite his struggles, Thomas still carries the third-most-expensive salary among WRs on the main slate. My belief is that DFS players will have a tough time clicking on Thomas’ name at the price tag when he is surrounded by the likes of Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, and D.K. Metcalf. However, we know that the Michael Thomas explosion game is coming. There is a great chance that it comes against a weak San Francisco secondary that allowed both Davante Adams and Marques Valdes-Scandling to score 18+ FanDuel fantasy points in Week Nine.
Similar to Cleveland, we will want to monitor the health of several 49ers leading into this Week 10 game. WR Brandon Aiyuk ($6,500) has been excellent thus far in his rookie season and could see plenty of volume if San Francisco falls behind early.
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Shane Bryant is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Shane, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @ShaneBryant31.
