We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the prop bet odds from FanDuel Sportsbook to give you the best prop bet picks. Here are our top 10 picks for Week 11.

View the best NFL prop bets for Week 10 with our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

Ryan Tannehill (TEN – QB): OVER 215.5 Passing Yards
In last year’s playoff game against the Baltimore Ravens, Ryan Tannehill attempted just 14 passes while Derrick Henry ran wild for 195 yards on 30 carries. You can expect Ravens head coach John Harbaugh to devise a game plan that ensures Henry will not beat him this time around, which should mean more throwing opportunities for Tannehill. Tannehill has not thrown for more than 158 yards in either of his last two games against the Bears and Colts. Though the Ravens have the seventh-best pass defense, their defense has looked vulnerable of late. They allowed a league-worst 78% completion percentage and 136.6 passer rating in Week 10. While this appears a scary matchup on paper for Tannehill, the backdrop surrounding this game suggests he should fare better through the air, especially if the Titans fall behind early.

Jake Luton (JAC – QB): OVER 219.5 Passing Yards
Much to the surprise of many, the Jacksonville Jaguars have been competitively lately, especially in rookie Jake Luton’s first two starts. They have lost to the Texans and Packers by a combined six points, and have been in these games late as a result of improved defense and Luton’s steady play. Oddsmakers do not believe they will be as competitive against the undefeated Steelers as they are the biggest underdogs of the week. Thus, Luton may be asked to throw more than he has been accustomed to. Many bettors will look at last week’s pedestrian 169 yards against the Packers and assume he was exposed. However, the wind was howling at Lambeau Field and Luton’s poor numbers were as much a result of the conditions than anything else. The weather should be much nicer in Jacksonville, and Luton should be asked to throw a ton in what should be a negative game script.

A.J. Brown (TEN – WR): OVER 53.5 Receiving Yards
Before last Thursday’s clunker against Indianapolis, Titans wide receiver A.J. Brown had at least 58 yards receiving in four of his prior five games. Brown optimists will argue last week’s poor performance was a result of playing on a short week and against a divisional opponent that knows him well. Brown’s 11.2 yards per target since 2019 is the best among all qualified wide receivers, and his six catches of 20+ yards since Week 7 is third-best. In addition, his 299 yards since Week 7 is ninth-most among wide receivers so there should be some positive regression to the mean this week against the Ravens.

Chase Claypool (PIT – WR): OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards                                                                                                          Since becoming a full-time starter following their bye week in Week 4, Chase Claypool has at least 42 yards receiving in five of his last six games. He now faces a Jacksonville pass defense that ranks 30th in the league allowing an average of 283.9 YPG. It would behoove the Pittsburgh coaching staff to get Claypool the ball in space. His 6.3 YAC ranks eighth-best among qualified wide receivers while Jacksonville’s defense has allowed 5.6 YAC to opposing wide receivers which is the second-worst mark in the league. Claypool has seen at least nine targets in three straight games, and he will surely exceed this projection if he comes anywhere close to that number in this one.

Will Fuller V (HOU – WR): OVER 59.5 Receiving Yards
Toss out Will Fuller’s poor 38-yard performance last week against the Cleveland Browns, as no one was able to rack up big numbers through the air in the windy conditions. Fuller’s eight targets in that game however are a nice positive, as are his two 100-yard games in the three games prior. With optimal conditions indoors at home this week, Fuller should get back to producing against the Patriots secondary. His 10.2 yards per target since 2018 ranks third among all qualified wide receivers, and he has three 40+ yard catches this season. Fuller is always one play away from cashing the over on his props.

Jonathan Taylor (IND – RB): OVER 33.5 Rushing Yards
The Colts’ backfield has been a mess to figure out lately, as it seems Frank Reich is riding a week-to-week “hot hand” approach. Last week it was Nyheim Hines’s turn to steal the show, as he amassed 115 total yards and scored two touchdowns. Two weeks prior to that, Jordan Wilkins enjoyed the limelight as he turned in a 113-yard performance against the Lions. Through all of that, Jonathan Taylor has still carried at least six times in those games. A fumble in Week 9 against Baltimore likely cost him an opportunity for more work, so ball security is essential for him to have an opportunity to surpass this total. The good news is Green Bay is susceptible to the run, allowing 110.8 YPG on the ground. My money is on head coach Frank Reich to feature Taylor early and often so as to build up the rookie’s confidence.

Mike Williams (LAC – WR): OVER 50.5 Receiving Yards
Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams has at least 81 yards receiving in two of his last three games. Though last week’s 38-yard effort against the Dolphins was disappointing, the Jets do not have any cornerback on the perimeter nearly as good as Miami’s tandem of Byron Jones and Xavien Howard. Williams should feast on New York’s 29th-ranked pass defense that has allowed successful plays on a league-worst 55% of pass attempts this season.

Jonnu Smith (TEN – TE): OVER 28.5 Receiving Yards
Despite Jonnu Smith getting more than two targets just once in the last three weeks, he has surpassed 28 yards receiving twice in that span. We already chronicled the reasons why Ryan Tannehill is likely to throw more in this game, so Smith should be able to produce as much as he had been to this point with minimal targets. Despite the Ravens ranking seventh in pass defense, they have proven vulnerable to the tight end position as they have allowed the 19th most fantasy points to the position this season.

Corey Davis (TEN – WR): OVER 44.5 Receiving Yards
Titans wide receiver Corey Davis has at least 67 receiving yards in two of his last three games. However, his other game in this span was a catchless performance on three targets in Week 9 against the Chicago Bears. When the game is on the line, Davis has produced as his 10 receptions in the 4th quarter since Week 7 are tied for the most among all wide receivers. Tennessee playing as underdogs against the Ravens should help Davis see more opportunities, especially late in the game when he produces most.

James Robinson (JAC – RB): OVER 64.5 Rushing Yards
For James Robinson to surpass this projected rushing total, it is imperative that the Jaguars make this a closer game than the oddsmakers suggest it will be. The good news is the Jaguars have been very competitive over the last two weeks as head coach Doug Marrone seems to be getting the most out of his guys. Robinson is clearly the bell cow of this backfield, as he has carried at least 22 times and has rushed for at least 99 yards each of the last three games. The Steelers do allow over 106 YPG on the ground, so Robinson has a great chance to beat this total if the game stays close.

Check out our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the week

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.