We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the prop bet odds from FanDuel Sportsbook to give you the best prop bet picks. Here are our top 10 picks for Week 10.

View the best NFL prop bets for Week 10 with our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

Jake Luton (JAC – QB): OVER 229.5 Passing Yards
Either Jake Luton does not look like a rookie, or the 304 yards he put up against Houston means the Texans have a worse defense than we thought. Either way, as 14-point underdogs against the Packers this week, Luton should be throwing the ball plenty at Lambeau Field. Luton should not be under much duress as the Packers defense has generated the least amount of pressure on opposing quarterbacks’ dropbacks this season. 230+ passing yards in a severely negative game script is more than reasonable.

Davante Adams (GB – WR): OVER 87.5 Receiving Yards
In case you have not noticed, Davante Adams is absolutely tearing up opposing secondaries. He is averaging 112.5 receiving yards per game, better than a touchdown per game, and more than double the number of targets of all his teammates except for Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The only conceivable way that Adams does not torch Jacksonville’s 28th-ranked pass defense and beat this projected total is if the Packers get up so big so quickly that his services are not needed in the second half. However, we project Adams to be a big part of them getting out to a big lead and thus surpassing this total in the process.

D.J. Moore (WR – CAR): OVER 54.5 Receiving Yards
D.J. Moore has been a huge disappointment for fantasy owners over the last two weeks, as he has totaled four catches for 73 yards on nine total targets. Now that he is facing a Buccaneers defense who has allowed the 23rd most points to opposing fantasy wide receivers, it is easy to think he is in for another quiet day. However, with Christian McCaffrey out of the lineup Moore has had 55+ receiving yards five times. In a game where they are expected to be trailing, Moore should be the beneficiary of an uptick in targets. Moore has gained 40+ yards on 2 of his 13 receptions since Week 6 (2nd-most among 72 qualified receivers), so he does not need a lot of volume to rack up big yardage totals.

Aaron Rodgers (GB – QB): OVER 275.5 Passing Yards
Those who take the over on Aaron Rodgers‘ passing yards need to hope this game stays competitive for as long as possible, as he could be game scripted out of throwing much in the second half. Rodgers has averaged 288.5 passing yards per game, so there is a lot of optimism that he can surpass this projected total against the 28th-ranked pass defense. Rodgers’ passer rating of 117.5 is the best of all qualified quarterbacks, while Jacksonville is allowing an opposing passer rating of 107.7 which ranks 31st in the league. Do not overthink this one, and bank on the over.

Carson Wentz (PHI – QB): OVER 248.5 Passing Yards
Carson Wentz has averaged 260.6 YPG this season, so why is his projected total against the 25th-ranked pass defense so low? The Giants defense has allowed successful plays on 57% of pass attempts in the second half, which is tied for the worst in the league. Wentz now figures to have his healthiest complement of weapons he has had all year, with Jalen Reagor, Alshon Jeffery and Miles Sanders all expected to play. In a game that should be competitive throughout, Wentz should throw the ball plenty enough to surpass this total.

Darius Slayton (NYG – WR): OVER 40.5 Receiving Yards
When Darius Slayton faced the Eagles defense three weeks ago, he was held to 23 yards on two receptions. However, there is reason to believe Slayton finds some regression to the mean and will finish with closer to his 54.6 YPG average. Slayton has been targeted 19 times in the fourth quarter this season, which is tied for tenth-most among all wide receivers. Slayton is a big-play threat as his 38.6% of his team’s air yards suggests. Thus, Slayton may not need too many receptions to surpass this total if he can hit a big play.

Henry Ruggs III (LV – WR): OVER 32.5 Receiving Yards
First-round pick Henry Ruggs III has been a disappointment so far this year, as he has surpassed 35 yards receiving just twice all season. What better chance for a breakout game than against Denver in a game with one of the highest projected totals (50.5) of the week.

Leonard Fournette (TB – RB): OVER 34.5 Rushing Yards
Slowly but surely, Leonard Fournette is working his way into the featured back role in this Tampa Bay offense. Throw out all last week’s data as the Buccaneers attempted an NFL-record low five rushing attempts for the game. Before that on Monday night, Ronald Jones was clearly benched after a fumble set up the Giants deep in their own territory. Fournette went on to handle 15 carries in that game, and has double digit carries in three of his last five games. In a game that they are projected to be leading in the fourth quarter, the more sure-handed Fournette should be called on to grind out the game-winning yards.

Travis Fulgham (PHI – WR): OVER 58.5 Receiving Yards
We have talked at length about how Philadelphia’s skill position players will benefit as a whole now that more people are healthy, and that certainly applies to Travis Fulgham. Fulgham has been a top-15 fantasy receiver in three of his last four games. He had five catches for 73 yards in these teams’ first meeting three weeks ago, and that was despite getting shadowed by New York’s best cornerback James Bradberry for most of the game. Fulgham has totaled 73+ yards in four of the five games he has played in this season, so there is no reason to think he will not exceed a much lower projected total against the Giants’ 25th-ranked pass defense. 

Jerry Jeudy (DEN – WR): OVER 54.5 Receiving Yards
Jerry Jeudy has been a target machine of late as his 24 targets in the last two games are tied for the most in the league. Jeudy will no doubt want to make a splash in this game as his former Alabama teammate Henry Ruggs III will be on the other sideline. Jeudy leads the Broncos with 484 yards on 30 receptions, and he faced a Raiders defense who is known to allow opposing receivers to go off. Las Vegas has allowed four receivers to score 22 or more fantasy points on the season, so Jeudy’s projected 54.5 yardage total seems modest in comparison.

Check out our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the week

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.