Top 10 NFL Player Prop Bets on DraftKings (Week 9)

We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the prop bet odds from DraftKings Sportsbook to give you the best prop bet picks. Here are our top 10 picks for Week 9.

View the best NFL prop bets for Week 9 with our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

Drew Lock (QB – DEN): UNDER 270.5 Passing Yards

Broncos quarterback Drew Lock is an intriguing streamer this week in large part because he faces a Falcons defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Lock is trying to follow up a three-touchdown effort against the Los Angeles Chargers with another dazzling performance. However, Lock only threw for 248 yards in that contest despite being forced to throw often as Denver tried to dig out of an early 24-3 hole.

The Falcons defense is finding ways to pressure the quarterback more, as nearly half their team sack total on the year has come in the last three games. Since Week 16 of last year, Lock is averaging 158.8 YPG, which is worst among 34 qualified quarterbacks. Just because the optics of facing the Falcons defense looks appealing does not make Drew a “lock” to exceed this total.

Josh Allen (QB – BUF): UNDER 289.5 Passing Yards

After Josh Allen looked like an early-season MVP candidate through the first four games, he has fallen on tough times. After breaking former career highs in yards and attempts against the Jets and Dolphins to open the season, Allen has topped 263 yards just once in the last four games. Allen’s only game in that span that exceeds this 289.5 yard projected total is against the winless Jets.

Allen has a 24.9 passer rating on third down since Week 5, which is second-worst of 35 qualified quarterbacks. While the Seahawks have allowed the most points to opposing fantasy quarterbacks, Bills head coach Sean McDermott tends to take a very conservative approach when facing elite offenses. The one-two punch of Zack Moss and Devin Singletary has clicked in the last couple of weeks, so look for a heavy running attack with Allen mixing in some designed runs to keep Russell Wilson and the explosive Seattle offense off the field.

Russell Wilson (QB – SEA): UNDER 299.5 Passing Yards

We like the under on Josh Allen‘s passing yards for the same reason that we like the under for Russell Wilson‘s. A ball-control game is in order for the Bills, who have found more success on the ground lately. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are the first receiving duo with 500 yards and seven touchdowns each through their team’s first seven games in NFL history. However, one of them is going to have to contend with one of the game’s best cornerbacks in Tre’Davious White all game.

Though he is on pace to throw for nearly 4,900 yards this year, Russell Wilson has gone under the 299.5-yard mark in three of Seattle’s seven games this year. With a chance for the number of possessions to be at a premium, we like the chances for the under to hit yet again.

D.J. Moore (WR – CAR): OVER 60.5 Receiving Yards

D.J. Moore is coming off a disappointing game against the Atlanta Falcons — he failed to record his first catch until the three-minute mark of the fourth quarter. Still, he finished with two catches on six targets for 55 yards, which should remind everyone about his big-play capabilities. Moore should be helped by the fact that running back Christian McCaffrey appears on track to suit up, as Kansas City’s defense is going to have to commit more defenders to the running game than they would have if just facing Mike Davis.

With a negative game script also likely in his favor, Moore should see plenty of opportunities with his team chasing points.

Gabriel Davis (WR – BUF): OVER 17.5 Receiving Yards

Gabriel Davis‘s totals for the last three weeks combined: two catches for 18 yards on six targets. Now his projected game total is for more yardage than his last three games combined? Bettors should be reminded that the Seahawks defense is allowing 358.7 passing yards per game, and no team in NFL history has allowed more than 300 passing yards per game for an entire season.

Davis has averaged just 5.1 yards per target since Week 5, which is fifth-worst of 70 qualified wide receivers. However, this projected total is low enough that Davis can exceed it on one simple slip screen. He has had big games of 81 yards receiving against the Rams and 58 yards against the Titans, so there is some value in this low total.

Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF): OVER 70.5 Receiving Yards

Stefon Diggs is becoming a Davante Adams-like target monster for the Buffalo offense. His 79 targets are more than double everyone else on the team except Cole Beasley, and Diggs received half of Josh Allen’s targets in last week’s win over New England. He has been held to less than 70.5 yards three times this season, but he still saw at least eight targets in two of those three.

His 28 catches since Week 5 are the most in the league. He also ranks first in first-down targets, as Allen has looked his way 22 times on first down. He has the second-most receiving yards in the league, and in a game with a projected total of 55 points (the highest in Week 9), Diggs is a safe bet for at least 71 receiving yards, even if the Bills employ a conservative game plan.

John Brown (WR – BUF): OVER 36.5 Receiving Yards

John Brown may be the forgotten man in this Bills offense after injuries have limited him severely since Week 5. Since 2019, Brown has been targeted at an average depth of 14.1 yards, which is fifth-highest among 68 qualified receivers. When Brown exceeds his average for receiving yards, the Bills are 9-2, so it would be wise for them to once again exploit his speed and unique route-running abilities.

For those worried about Brown’s health with this prop, he played 47-of-58 snaps last week, so his availability against Seattle’s worst-ranked pass defense should not be in question.

Laviska Shenault Jr. (WR – JAC): OVER 35.5 Receiving Yards

When the Jaguars faced the Texans in Week 5, Shenault Jr. caught seven of his eight targets for 79 yards. The biggest difference between then and now was he caught those passes from Gardner Minshew, while this time around, Jake Luton will be slinging him the ball in his first NFL start.

There are many unknowns surrounding Luton and how the Jaguars offense will look in his debut. However, one thing we can likely all agree on is Jacksonville’s 31st-ranked total defense will have trouble slowing down Deshaun Watson and Houston’s offense. Thus, with teammate D.J. Chark receiving a lot of attention from Houston’s best coverage cornerback in Bradley Roby, Shenault could once again be in line for a ton of targets in a game where they should be chasing points.

Jake Luton (QB – JAC): UNDER 240.5 Passing Yards

Jake Luton is a sixth-round rookie draft pick out of Oregon State who is making his first start this week in place of the injured Gardner Minshew. At Oregon State, Luton averaged 7.1 yards per attempt, and he isn’t thought of as an elusive running threat.

Jacksonville’s best chance for being competitive this week against the Texans is to feature a heavy dose of running back James Robinson. The Texans have been vulnerable to running backs all year as they have allowed 188.6 total yards to the position per game. Though Luton knew he was likely to start late last week after MRIs revealed multiple fractures in Minshew’s throwing hand, Luton has not likely earned many first-team reps up to this point. Even if the Jaguars get down early against Houston, 240.5 yards is a tough ask for Luton.

Le’Veon Bell (RB – KC): OVER 31.5 Rushing Yards

This projection is as much about Andy Reid as it is about Le’Veon Bell‘s talent. Bell has run for just 46 yards in two combined games as a member of the Kansas City Chiefs. However, like Bruce Arians with Leonard Fournette in Tampa Bay, it’s only a matter of time before Reid starts to use Bell as a more integral part of the offense.

While quarterback Patrick Mahomes is matchup proof, the Panthers are still 26th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks while they have been the fourth-most generous defense to opposing running backs. Bell received nine chances in 17 snaps last week, so even if those numbers improve marginally this week, he is still a good bet to exceed this 31.5 yard total.

Check out our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the week

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.