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The Primer: Week 8 (Monday Night Football Edition)

The Primer: Week 8 (Monday Night Football Edition)

Here’s a look at The Primer capsule for Monday night’s showdown between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the host New York Giants:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants

Total: 45.5
Line: TB by 12.5

QBs
Tom Brady:
After knocking the rust off over the first two games, Brady, at 43 years old, has completed 130-of-197 passes for 1,454 yards, 15 touchdowns, and one interception. He’s the No. 4 quarterback in fantasy over the last five weeks. And he’s about to get Antonio Brown in Week 9. But first, he has to get through this game with no Brown and no Chris Godwin, who was ruled out after having surgery on a broken finger that he suffered on his touchdown catch. The Giants haven’t been the smash spot that everyone expected at the start of the season, allowing the 11th-fewest fantasy points to the quarterback position. The efficiency metrics are stable at 7.67 yards per attempt, a 68.6 percent completion-rate, and 4.49 percent touchdown-rate, so what gives? They haven’t allowed barely any production on the ground to quarterbacks, which drags down their overall numbers. If you look at strictly passing numbers, they’ve allowed the 13th-most fantasy points. Over the last two weeks, we’ve watched Kyle Allen and Carson Wentz combine for 639 yards and four passing touchdowns. Knowing the Giants have allowed just 3.93 yards per carry on the ground, we could see them move the ball via Brady even more than in recent games, though the loss of Godwin hurts. Brady should still be considered a low-end QB1 who always gets it done on primetime.

Daniel Jones: He’s thrown the ball deep down the field on just 5.6 percent of his attempts, which is the second-lowest mark in the NFL. It’s a shame because he’s completed 7-of-13 deep passes for 218 yards and three touchdowns. Part of the issue is that he doesn’t have time, as the 43.8 percent pressure rate is the highest in football. The Bucs have the second-highest pressure rate and the fourth-highest sack-rate. You’d think there should be plenty of volume for Jones, considering the Giants have passed 62.1 percent of the time (seventh-highest), while the Bucs have faced a pass play on 64.1 percent of plays (fourth-highest), but the lack of plays may be an issue. The Giants have only run 57.7 plays per game, which is the lowest number in the league, while Bucs opponents have averaged just 61.3 plays per game, the seventh-lowest number in football. Just two quarterbacks have been able to finish as top-20 quarterbacks against the Bucs, and those quarterbacks were Justin Herbert and Derek Carr, both of which who are atop the league in efficiency stats such as yards per attempt. Jones … is not. He’s averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt. The Bucs also haven’t allowed a quarterback to rush for more than 19 yards against them this season, which puts a damper on the upside that Jones might find on the ground. He’s just a low-end QB2 in this game.

RBs
Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette:
Jones is running hard and it shows in the numbers. The 3.32 yards after contact that he’s averaging ranks ninth among running backs with 50 carries. Still, Bruce Arians decides to share the work with Fournette. I really thought Jones had extended that leash, but apparently not. The Giants have been better against the run than expected, allowing just 3.93 yards per carry on the season, which ranks as the 11th-lowest in football. Despite six running backs seeing 12-plus carries, just one of them has been able to crack the 100-yard barrier, so it has not been a smash spot on the ground. Through the air is somewhat of a different story, as the 1.85 PPR points per target the Giants have allowed to running backs ranks as the second-highest mark in football. Five running backs have been able to amass 39-plus receiving yards against them this year. Knowing Fournette ran 25 routes last week while Jones ran just 15 isn’t ideal for Jones’ role in the passing game. His drop in the second quarter is likely what sealed his fate. Because of that, Fournette saw seven targets, catching six of them for 47 yards. Jones is still the preferred option but it appears to be closer than we thought, especially if Fournette’s usage in the passing game keeps up. Jones should be considered a low-end RB2 while Fournette is squarely in the RB3 conversation.

Wayne Gallman: The Buccaneers haven’t missed a beat without Vita Vea in the middle of their defense, as they’ve allowed just 2.72 yards per carry on the season, including just 32 yards on 20 carries to the combination of Aaron Jones and Josh Jacobs over the last two weeks. Seriously. Not a single team of running backs have totaled more than 80 yards on the ground against them. They have allowed some production through the air, but Giants running backs have averaged just 4.7 receptions per game as a whole. Not a single one of them has more than 10 receptions on the year. The Bucs have allowed just four starting running backs to finish top-30 against them, and they all scored touchdowns. The Giants running backs have combined to total three touchdowns all season. Gallman is nothing more than a low-upside RB3.

WRs
Mike Evans:
With Chris Godwin in the lineup, Evans has been an afterthought. In the three games without Godwin, it’s been a different story. He’s seen 10, 8, and 9 targets in those three games, totaling 19 receptions, 267 yards, and three touchdowns. In case you’ve missed it, Godwin has been ruled out for this game with a broken finger. The Giants are going to have James Bradberry shadow him, which hasn’t been a pleasant experience for Evans throughout the last two years. In case you forgot, Bradberry shadowed him the last two years while in Carolina. Here are his totals from those games:

Game Tgts Rec Yds TD PPR Pts
2018 – W9 10 1 16 0 2.6
2018 – W13 6 4 48 0 8.8
2019 – W2 8 4 61 0 10.1
2019 – W6 17 9 96 0 18.6

__________

The only game that Evans did well was the one he was targeted 17 times in. To be fair, it is a different defense that Bradberry’s playing for, and Evans has upgraded from Jameis Winston to Brady, but it’s something. Bradberry has done a solid job with No. 1 receivers this year: Travis Fulgham 5/73/0, Terry McLaurin 7/74/0, Amari Cooper 2/23/0, Robert Woods 6/35/0, and Allen Robinson 3/33/0. That’s pretty good, right? Still, it’s hard to see a scenario where Evans sees less than eight targets this week, so you have to get him back into lineups as a high-end WR2.

Scotty Miller: It’s pretty odd, but Miller has been more of a part of the offense with Chris Godwin in the lineup. Seriously, in three games without him, Miller has seen 3, 0, and 2 targets. In the four games with him, he’s seen 6, 5, 2, and 9 targets. Miller did deal with some injuries during that time, which could’ve contributed to his decreased role, though he was on the field. The Giants are going to have James Bradberry on Evans, which would put Ryan Lewis on Miller. He’s allowed 12-of-21 passing for 236 yards in his coverage, which amounts to a massive 19.7 yards per reception. Miller’s average depth of target is 16.3 yards down the field, which ranks as the fifth-highest mark in the league. If you’re trying to find someone who has value for one more week, Miller should be considered a decent WR4/5 with upside option.

Sterling Shepard: Welcome back to the lineup, Mr. Shepard. Taking away the game he needed to leave against the Bears, Shepard has now seen at least six targets in each of his last 18 games. That’s crazy, right? He’s the No. 1 receiver for the Giants with that target floor, even if Slayton may have a higher ceiling. The Buccaneers opponents have thrown the ball 64.1 percent of the time, which is the fourth-most in the NFL, and it’s allowed for plenty of opportunities for wide receivers. That’s led to 11 different receivers finishing with 10.5 or more PPR points, though just four of them have topped 14.3 PPR points. Receivers have been targeted 19.3 times per game against the Bucs, which is enough for Shepard to see his six-plus targets fairly confidently, especially since the run game will have no chance this week. Shepard should be considered a WR4 option who comes with a better floor than most in that range, though his ceiling is a bit limited.

Darius Slayton: He’s now seen just four targets in each of his last two games, and it’s limited his production. When you add Sterling Shepard back into the lineup, this was always the concern. Knowing the Bucs opponents have thrown the ball 64.1 percent of the time (4th in NFL), the Giants pass catchers should be pretty busy in this one. The Bucs have used Carlton Davis to shadow some No. 1 receivers, but the Giants don’t really have that prototypical No. 1, so we shouldn’t assume a shadow. The Bucs have allowed the eighth-fewest points per game to wide receivers, as they’ve limited them to just 1.69 PPR points per target. Sure, they’ve allowed 11 receivers to hit 10.5-plus PPR points, but seven of them had to see nine-plus targets to get there. The Bucs have allowed four pass plays to go for 40-plus yards, which is what you need to hope for with Slayton, so treat him as a boom-or-bust WR4 this week.

Golden Tate: He’s still yet to reach 50 yards in a game this year. He’s caught at least four passes in 4-of-6 games, which provides a floor for PPR leaguers, but the ceiling is extremely limited. He probably has the best matchup on the field this week, as Sean Murphy-Bunting is the weakest link in the Bucs secondary, allowing 32-of-35 passes to be completed for 369 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage, good enough for a 129.6 QB Rating. Opposing teams have moved their receivers around to get them in the mismatch with Murphy-Bunting, but Tate is essentially the full-time slot receiver, so can he deliver? He’s had other good matchups that he failed to deliver in this year and has seen just three targets over the last two games, so can we trust him enough to find out? Probably not, making him a WR5 with a limited ceiling.

TEs
Rob Gronkowski:
It appears we have Gronk back in our lives. He’s now totaled at least six targets and 52 yards in each of his last three games and has scored in each of his last two games. He’s seen more deep targets (20-plus yards down the field) than any other tight end with seven of them, so even though he’s caught just three of them, it leaves the opportunity for one-play upside. With Chris Godwin out of the lineup, it should allow for more targets, too. The Giants have only faced 5.7 tight end targets per game, which is one of the lowest marks in football, and have held tight ends in check for the most part. They have allowed 7.60 yards per target and a solid 65.0 percent completion-rate, but they’ve allowed just one touchdown to them, keeping the overall numbers down. It’s not a great matchup considering just one tight end has caught more than four balls against them, but considering the surge in his play as of late, it’s tough to keep him out of lineups, because if Gronk is back, he’s matchup-proof.

Evan Engram: You can’t say the Giants haven’t been trying to get him the ball, as he’s averaging 6.3 targets per game, and they’ve even given him multiple carries in two of their last three games. He’s totaled at least 9.5 PPR points in 4-of-7 games, which is a bit more stable than most realize, though he’s yet to score more than 12.5 PPR points, so the ceiling has been non-existent. The Bucs have been similar to him, honestly. They’ve allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends, giving up 6.81 yards per target (22nd), a 61.7 percent completion-rate (27th), and a touchdown every 15.7 targets (18th). So, they’re a below-average matchup, though there have been five tight ends who’ve finished as top-15 options against them (Darren Waller was the only one who finished better than TE9). With the lack of run game, we should expect another game of six-plus targets for Engram, which keeps him in the high-end TE2 conversation.


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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.

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