Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Spread: Chiefs -6.5
Total: 56.5
Chiefs vs. Raiders Betting Matchup
QBs
Patrick Mahomes: The Chiefs offense has averaged 31.8 points per game, which ranks second in the NFL. That’s obviously a great thing for the entire offense but knowing that Mahomes has been included on 27 of the team’s 31 total touchdowns is miraculous. So, when you see a high team-implied total for them, you can safely project Mahomes to account for 85 percent of it. The last time these two teams met back in Week 5, Mahomes threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns, while adding another 21 yards and a touchdown on the ground, finishing as the No. 2 quarterback in that game. Going back to last year when these teams played in Week 2, Mahomes crushed them for 443 yards and four touchdowns, so it’s clear that he has their number. Despite managing a sack on just 3.17 percent of opponent dropbacks, the Raiders have allowed just 7.28 yards per attempt to opponents, which likely comes down to most just checking down to their running backs (23.5 percent target share), but Mahomes doesn’t really do that if he doesn’t have to. We also just found out that edge rusher Clelin Ferrell has tested positive for COVID, which hurts their pass-rush. If the Raiders can’t get pressure (they average the third-lowest average pressure rate), Mahomes is going to carve them up. From a clean pocket, he’s completed 74.2 percent of his passes and thrown 20 touchdowns to zero interceptions on 254 attempts. Start him as a high-end QB1 who’s the engine behind this high-powered offense.
Derek Carr: It’s now been three straight games where Carr has thrown the ball 25 times or less. Because of that, he’s finished with 14 or less fantasy points in each game. He has a 107.4 QB Rating on the season, but just three 20-point fantasy games to show for it. The Raiders are 6-3, so it’s hard to argue with the logic, but that doesn’t do fantasy managers any good. He is going to have more pass attempts this week, that’s for sure, though what he does with them might be a different story. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard, “The Chiefs opponent is going to rack up points because they’ll be playing catch up.” That has not been the case over the last two years. In fact, the Chiefs rank fourth in fantasy points allowed per offensive play behind only the Rams, Bears, and Colts. Teams do run a few more plays per game against them, which allows a few more points, but they still rank eighth in overall fantasy points allowed. The 6.57 yards per attempt they’ve allowed ranks as the third-lowest mark in the league. The Chiefs have allowed a massive 230 yards and four touchdowns on the ground to quarterbacks, so if you remove that, they’ve allowed the third-fewest points through the air. The 0.377 fantasy points per actual pass attempt is the second-lowest number in the league. The good news for Carr is that when these two teams played in Week 5, he finished with a season-high 347 yards and three touchdowns. It was his best fantasy performance of the year. He was one of just three quarterbacks who averaged more than 6.35 yard per attempt against the Chiefs this year. Last year, against a very similar group of players and in the same scheme, Carr finished with 198 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions in the first game, and then 222 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions in the second one. So, which Carr do we get this week? I’m not betting on a repeat of his Week 5 performance, but he’s been efficient enough this year to warrant consideration as a high-end QB2.
RBs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell: The Chiefs have been having a real issue getting their ground game going, though it’s hard to blame Edwards-Helaire, as he’s averaged a rock-solid 4.65 yards per carry, which ranks No. 3 among running backs with 100-plus carries, behind only Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry. For whatever reason, he’s been limited to 10 or less carries in four of the last five games. The Chiefs backfield as a whole has averaged just 24.0 touches per game, so lack of volume is a real problem. The Raiders have allowed a rushing touchdown once every 19.7 carries, so volume hasn’t been necessary to post solid fantasy numbers against them. Running backs have also been targeted 23.5 percent of the time against the Raiders, which is the highest mark in the league. The bye week is generally when teams decide to make major fundamental changes to their attack moving forward, so it’s possible that the Chiefs realize they need to get their ground game working a bit more. Clelin Ferrell has been the best run-stopping edge rusher the Raiders have and he’s out for this game after testing positive for COVID. Back in their Week 5 game, Edwards-Helaire totaled 80 yards on just 13 touches, so if he gets more, he should produce like you expected him to when you drafted, but again, the lack of touches is problematic. Unless the Chiefs have changed their ways, he’s stuck in middling RB2 territory in what’s been a great matchup for running backs. The Chiefs could choose to go back to the way things were pre-Bell, as he’s shown he’s in the final stages of his career and doesn’t have the appeal he once did. He’s nothing more than a handcuff to Edwards-Helaire at this point, as he’s totaled just 14 touches that netted 41 total yards over the last two games combined. *Update* Edwards-Helaire had to miss some practice time this week due to an illness, so make sure you stay tuned in throughout the weekend.
Josh Jacobs: He’s been trending up over the last three weeks, finishing as a top-15 running back in each game. He’s racked up over 300 yards and three touchdowns the last three games, and that includes a game where the Raiders even let Devontae Booker have his way with the Broncos over the second half. Even better news is that Jacobs ran 17 pass routes, his highest since way back in Week 4 while Jalen Richard ran just three of them in Week 10. We know the Chiefs don’t allow a whole lot of fantasy production to their opponents (eighth-fewest overall), but running backs account for a lot of the production they do allow, as they’ve scored 38.0 percent of the fantasy points allowed to skill-position players, which ranks as the third-highest number in the league. Against pass-catching running backs, the Chiefs rank as the fourth-worst team in the league, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA. Against the run in general, they rank as the third-worst team. Those metrics take into consideration the competition they’ve played and the production they’ve allowed. As a whole, running backs have scored 11.9 percent more fantasy points against the Chiefs than they do on average. Jacobs fits into that role, too, as he racked up 85 total yards and two touchdowns against them back in Week 5. There have been just six running backs who’ve totaled more than 14 touches against the Chiefs, and every single one of them finished with at least 100 total yards and/or a touchdown. Jacobs should be in lineups as an RB1 this week.
WRs
Tyreek Hill: He had his explosion game we talked about against the Panthers, racking up 18 targets, nine receptions, 113 yards, and two touchdowns in Week 9. With the way the Panthers struggled to get pressure on the quarterback, it allowed Hill to roam free in the secondary. The Raiders also struggle with pressure, which could lead to another big game for Hill. In their first meeting, he totaled just 3/78/0 on six targets though the air but chipped in with five yards and a touchdown on the ground. Something to watch is the status of Lamarcus Joyner, who needed to leave the facility this week for close contact with Clelin Ferrell, who tested positive. If Joyner is held out, it’s an upgrade for all pass-catchers because he’s the best cornerback they’ve had. Even with him on the field, they’ve allowed 8.97 yards per target to receivers, which ranks as the eighth-highest mark in football, and we’ve watched four receivers total 100-plus yards against them. He may have struggled last time, but I wouldn’t bank on that happening again. He’s an every-week WR1.
Sammy Watkins: Many have simply forgotten about Watkins, who’ll be back in the lineup when the Chiefs come out of their bye week. In the three full games Watkins has played, he’s totaled 9, 8, and 7 targets. He was actually hurt early in the last game against the Raiders and played just 26 snaps, though he did catch both of his targets for 24 yards and a touchdown before exiting. The Chiefs have rotated Watkins and Hill in the slot, which means you need to watch the status of Lamarcus Joyner, who was sent home due to close contact with COVID. He’s their slot cornerback and the one who Watkins would see 45 percent of the time. The Raiders have seen just 19.8 wide receiver targets per game, which has allowed them to remain in the middle of the pack for fantasy points allowed. In fact, there have been just 10 wide receivers who’ve finished top-36 against them. With it being Watkins’ first game back, exercise some caution and consider him a risk/reward WR5. *Update* Watkins practiced in full on Wednesday, but was then downgraded to limited practices on Thursday and Friday, making him legitimately questionable for Sunday night’s game.
Mecole Hardman: The good news is that he’s played a very high 45 and 42 offensive snaps over their last two games. The bad news is that Watkins is due back to the lineup, which is likely to cut his snaps significantly. Hardman has seen more than four targets just twice all season. Here’s the ongoing chart we’ve done:
| Week | Routes | Targets |
| Week 1 | 12 | 1 |
| Week 2 | 40 | 3 |
| Week 3 | 22 | 6 |
| Week 4 | 19 | 4 |
| Week 5 | 39 | 3 |
| Week 6 | 13 | 1 |
| Week 7 | 11 | 2 |
| Week 8 | 31 | 9 |
| Week 9 | 33 | 4 |
As you can see, he’s highly unpredictable on a week-to-week basis. The reason fantasy mangers continue to consider him is due to his insane efficiency, as he’s turned 74 career targets into 933 yards and nine touchdowns. That’s an insane 2.68 PPR points per target. The matchup doesn’t even matter at this point. He’s the definition of a hail-mary WR5 play when desperate.
Henry Ruggs: This is getting really old, really quick. Ruggs has now seen 25 targets this season. There have been 11 receivers who’ve seen more than 25 targets over the last three weeks, including Anthony Miller. It’s odd to say the least. Knowing that and heading into a matchup with the Chiefs who’ve allowed the third-fewest yards per target (7.40) to wide receviers this year, we have major issues. The 11.95 yards per reception they allow doesn’t bode well for a receiver who’s used primarily as a deep threat, as they’ve allowed just 26 pass plays of 20-plus yards, which is the ninth-fewest in the league. When these teams met in Week 5, Ruggs saw three targets and turned them into two catches (one off his career high) for 118 yards and a touchdown, so he was able to get loose. Since the start of 2019, the Chiefs have allowed just 127.6 yards per game to wide receivers. Do you want to take the chance that Ruggs breaks loose again in this matchup? With his 3-4 targets in each of the last six games, it’s not the greatest bet, making him a boom-or-bust WR4/5 option.
Nelson Agholor: Despite the fact that he’s been among the most efficient receivers in the league this year, the Raiders have targeted Agholor more than four times just once all season. He’s totaled at least 44 yards and a touchdown in four of the last six games despite Greg Olson’s best efforts to keep him excluded from a big role in the gameplan. As mentioned in the Ruggs notes, the Chiefs defense has allowed a league-low 127.6 yards per game to wide receivers since the start of last season. It’s both a volume and efficiency problem, as they’ve allowed just 7.40 yards per target (third-fewest in the NFL) and have faced just 168 targets (eighth-fewest). Agholor and Ruggs were the only receivers who’ve seen fewer than seven targets and finished as top-36 receivers against them. I’m not one to tempt the odds again, leaving Agholor in the WR5 conversation.
TEs
Travis Kelce: He’s posted back-to-back 100-yard games and is on pace for 103 receptions, 1,367 yards, and 11 touchdowns. That would beat his 2018 totals of 103 receptions, 1,336 yards, and 10 touchdowns, which was his career best. With how little they’re choosing to run the ball, it’s no wonder he’s seen seven-plus targets in seven of the last eight games. His last three games against the Raiders have netted 8/108/1, 5/90/0, and 7/107/1, so it’s not a matchup to be worried about despite the numbers the Raiders have posted this year. They’ve surprisingly allowed 5.84 yards per target (third-lowest in the NFL) to tight ends, and have allowed just three touchdowns on the year, so it hasn’t really been a smash spot. In fact, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, they’re the second-toughest matchup in the NFL for tight ends. Again, this doesn’t seem to apply to Kelce, who’s crushed them three times in the last 14 months. You’re always starting him.
Darren Waller: Crazy to think there have been just two tight ends you can rely on this year, and both of them are in this game. Unfortunately, Waller hasn’t been all that reliable as of late, as he’s failed to top 37 yards in each of his last three games, something that had happened just three times in his previous 22 games. He’s still seen at least five targets in 8-of-9 games this year, including five with eight-plus targets, so we’ll be rolling with the punches. The last time he played the Chiefs (Week 5), Waller walked away with 5/48/1 on seven targets, which came in a game where Carr threw for 347 yards and three touchdowns, something that’s unlikely to happen again. Still, we can even go back to last year when Waller finished with 6/63/0 and 7/100/0 against them, so he’s fared well regardless, and it was the same scheme. The Chiefs rank as the 11th-toughest matchup in adjusted opponent rank, which factors in the opponents they’ve played, as tight ends are averaging 6.8 percent fewer points against the Chiefs than they do on average. Looking at DVOA, they rank as the fourth-toughest matchup for tight ends, so it’s far from a can’t-miss matchup. But considering Waller’s history against them, he remains in the sturdy TE1 range.
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers -3.5
Total: 48
Rams vs. Buccaneers Betting Matchup
QBs
Jared Goff: It was supposed to be a big game for Goff last week, and while he did throw for 302 yards but the Rams chose to go with the run once they got down into the red zone. The good news is that they’re likely not going to be able to run the ball against the Bucs. The bad news is that the matchup against the Bucs pass-rush and secondary is twice as hard as the matchup against the Seahawks. The Bucs are allowing sub 3.0 yards per carry, which has led to their opponents choosing to throw the ball on 62.6 percent of plays, which ranks as the third-highest mark in the league. It’s not always pretty when they drop back to pass, either, as they’ve generated a sack on 8.3 percent of dropbacks. Knowing Goff will be without his starting left tackle Andrew Whitworth, that’s a big problem. There have been just two quarterbacks all season who’ve posted higher than 7.8 yards per attempt against the Bucs, including 6-of-9 quarterbacks who’ve averaged less than 7.0 yards per attempt. Then you add in the fact that Goff has averaged 6.7 yards per attempt or less in four of his last six games, and you have the recipe for a low floor. The Bucs have also intercepted at least one pass in seven of their last eight games. The Rams defense has also played well enough to keep Goff’s pass attempts down, as he’s thrown the ball more than 38 times just once all season. There’s not much of a ceiling here, but there is a low floor. Because of that, Goff is nothing more than a bottom-of-the-barrel QB2.
Tom Brady: It was good to see Brady bounce back last week, as no one wants to see the end of an era. He obliterated the Panthers defense for 341 yards and three touchdowns. That was a cake matchup against a team who struggles to get pressure on the quarterback. Meanwhile, the Rams rank as the team with the fourth-highest sack-rate in the league. Don’t think last week was a fluke with their defense against Russell Wilson. On the season, they’ve allowed a league-low 1.21 fantasy points per offensive snap to opponents. By comparison, the Falcons allow 1.72 points per snap. When you factor in the 60-plus plays per game, this is rather significant. The Rams have allowed just 6.36 yards per attempt and a 2.88 percent touchdown-rate, which are both the lowest marks in the NFL. If you were to remove the rushing production that quarterbacks have had against them, the Rams have allowed just 11.96 fantasy points per game to them. The 0.344 fantasy points per actual pass attempt is the lowest in the league, and it’s not all that close. Knowing Brady is a pocket passer who offers nothing on the ground outside of a goal-line plunge here and there, this is problematic. They’ve allowed a league-low nine passing touchdowns against them, which amounts to just one per game. The Rams are also one of just four teams who have a sack-rate of higher than 9.0 percent, which is bad news for Brady, who’s struggled mightily under pressure, completing just 46.6 percent of passes and throwing three touchdowns on 88 attempts. Brady is more of a middling QB2 this week who you shouldn’t feel the need to play.
RBs
Darrell Henderson, Cam Akers, and Malcolm Brown: In case you needed a reminder about why I’ve been saying to sell your shares of Henderson, last week highlighted my concerns. Sean McVay has legitimately told us he wants to model the Rams run game after Kyle Shanahan’s offense in San Francisco. What better way to do that than start a three-way timeshare? The snaps were Brown 29, Henderson 23, and Akers 18, while the touches were Akers 10, Brown 8, and Henderson 8. Yeah, not great. The Bucs have not only seen a minuscule 19.0 carries per game on the ground, but even when running backs get carries, they don’t amount to much. They’ve allowed just 3.01 yards per carry on the season, which is easily the best mark in the NFL and a repeat of what they did last year. Production has been rare to come by on the ground against the Bucs (4th-fewest fantasy points allowed on the ground), but running backs are averaging a rather-high 22.9 percent target share against them, which ranks fourth in the league. That’s the reason they’ve allowed a league-high 66 receptions to the running back position. On the season, Brown has run 170 routes, while Henderson has run 85, and Akers has run 21, so this is clearly a benefit to Brown. The Bucs have allowed 13.4 PPR points per game through the air alone to running backs, which is the third-most in the league. It’s odd to say but Brown might have the most value this week, though Henderson is right there, as he’s still involved in the passing game a little bit and gets 47.1 percent of the carries inside the five-yard line, but both are just RB3-type options this week. Akers is moving up the board, but given his lack of involvement through the air, he’s just a RB4/5.
Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette: Did you need a reminder to never fully trust any Bucs running back? It seemed like Jones would be on the bench for the remainder of the game after fumbling on their first drive, but Bruce Arians went back to him after watching Fournette drop an easy pass in the flats. Jones proceeded to rip off a big run that led to a career day on the ground, racking up 198 total yards and a touchdown. Here’s a fun stat: Based on the number of eight-man defensive fronts and yards before contact a running back has, they have an expected yards per carry. Based on that number from NFL’s NextGenStats, Jones is averaging 1.41 more yards per carry than the average running back would, which ranks fourth to only Nick Chubb, Raheem Mostert, and Dalvin Cook. The Rams are dominant against the pass, but they’ve also been pretty good against the run, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to them. As far as carries go, teams are averaging 19.4 carries per game against them (fourth-fewest), which is detrimental to Jones’ role as the primary two-down back, as he still concedes about 40-45 percent of the carries to Fournette over the last month. They allow just 4.03 per carry, so it’s not like efficiency has been great. The Rams have allowed near the league average in yards per target (5.62) to running backs, which bodes well for Fournette, who sees nearly twice the targets that Jones does. But all-in-all, the Rams rank as the fourth-toughest opponent based on weighted opportunity. This isn’t a game to expect a repeat performance out of Jones, who should be viewed as a high-end RB3 who comes with risk of touching the ball less than 15 times. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if Fournette has a bigger game based on the strengths and weaknesses of the matchup, so he remains in the RB3 territory.
WRs
Robert Woods: There’s no one more let down than me after Woods’ Week 10 performance. Believe me, I had way too much exposure in DFS lineups for him to finish with five catches for 33 yards against the league’s worst defense against wide receviers (who were starting three backup cornerbacks). Woods has now finished between 5-8 targets in 8-of-9 games this year, which isn’t the best of news for a receiver that is averaging just 7.8 yards per target, though his four receiving touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns have kept him afloat. His 134.0 PPR points on the season rank No. 22, though he’s finished as a WR2 or better in just 4-of-9 games. Now onto a matchup with the Bucs defense that rank as the No. 2 defense against No. 1 wide receivers in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric that factors in level of competition they’ve played. Granted, Woods isn’t that prototypical No. 1 wide receiver, but he’s their best perimeter option, which means he’ll see a lot of Carlton Davis, who’s allowed just 34-of-61 passing for 383 yards and two touchdowns, while intercepting four passes. That amounts to just 1.38 PPR points per target in his coverage, which ranks 109th among 123 qualifying cornerbacks. This is not a great matchup, as there have been just seven wide receviers who’ve finished with 15-plus PPR points, and while all of them had at least seven targets, six of them had at least nine targets. Woods should be considered more of a high-end WR3 this week.
Cooper Kupp: Similar to Woods, Kupp has generally lived in the 5-8 target range this year, though there have been two outlier games where he saw 20 and 10 targets. Both times were in matchups where the slot was an area to attack against their opponents (Bills, Dolphins) while the perimeter matchups were a bit tougher. The matchup against the Bucs would certainly qualify as a matchup to attack the slot over the perimeter, as Sean Murphy-Bunting has allowed 37-of-42 passing for 437 yards and four touchdowns in his coverage. There are just 13 cornerbacks in the league who’ve allowed more yardage, and all of them have seen more targets than him. There have only been six wide receivers who’ve finished better than the WR29 against the Bucs, and while all of them saw at least seven targets, five of them saw nine-plus targets, so we need this to be one of the games Kupp gets peppered. He’s the preferred play on the Rams this week, so plug him in as a low-end WR2 and hope for the best.
Josh Reynolds: He has more games with nine-plus targets over the last two weeks than Woods does on the whole season. Take a look at his targets by week, that have clearly been escalating: 1, 2, 5, 4, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10. If he didn’t have his bye in-between there, he’d rank ninth in targets over the last three weeks. The downside is that the Bucs have been dominant on the perimeter, as the duo of Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean have allowed just 5.87 yards per target. If you’re playing Reynolds, the hope is for a touchdown, as those two have allowed a touchdown every 18.3 targets to receivers, though that’s not something you want to bank on when Goff is throwing just 1.44 touchdowns per game. Reynolds is moving up the fantasy radar, but he’s in the lackluster WR4/5 conversation this week.
Chris Godwin: It’s not so bad with all three receivers active over the last two weeks, as Godwin’s role hasn’t changed much, totaling six targets in each game. He averaged 7.3 targets per game before Brown got there, so like we thought, it may have taken the cap off his floor/ceiling. He posted a season-high 92 yards last week, so maybe his efficiency is on the rise? Not only do the Rams allow the second-fewest PPR points to skill-position players (61.1 points per game) but they’ve allowed just 44.7 percent of that production go to wide receivers, which is the fourth-lowest mark in the league. It amounts to just 27.4 PPR points per game to wide receivers. They’re efficient, too, as receivers have averaged just 1.54 PPR points per target, which is the third-lowest mark in the NFL. The good news for Godwin is that he has the best matchup on the field against Troy Hill in the slot. Not that Hill has been bad, but he’s been worse than Jalen Ramsey and Darious Williams. He’s allowed 39-of-52 passing for 380 yards in his coverage, though he’s still yet to allow a touchdown. Still, the Rams have allowed just two top-24 receivers all year, so it’s hard to find much to get excited about. Godwin is the best bet for production, but he’s just a high-end WR3 here.
Mike Evans: It may have gone overlooked by some, but Evans has played in the slot 52.5 percent of the time over the last four games. The Bucs are trying to free him up from those shutdown perimeter cornerbacks. He’s caught 9-of-10 targets for 123 yards while in there, so it’s working. When playing against the Rams, wide receivers are averaging 8.3 fewer fantasy points than their seasonal average, which makes this the toughest matchup in football. Teams are targeting wide receivers on just 49.8 percent of their pass attempts, which is easily the lowest mark in the league, as no other team has seen fewer than a 51.7 percent target share. This is problematic when we have three wide receviers that need to be projected for heavy targets. Not only are targets a problem, but wide receivers have caught a touchdown once every 39.0 targets, which ranks as the second-fewest in the league, behind only the Ravens. Evans will have his hands full on the perimeter, as both Jalen Ramsey and Darious Williams have been lights out. Evans should be considered a WR3 this week in what might be the toughest matchup in football.
Antonio Brown: He’s looked good the first two weeks, hauling in 10-of-13 targets for 100 yards. His target share is very comparable to that of Evans and Godwin, so he belongs in a similar conversation as those two right now, and as he continues to learn the playbook, he could surpass them. It’ll be tough this week against a Rams team that has allowed the fewest points per game to wide receivers, especially since Brown is essentially perimeter-only. Jalen Ramsey and Darious Williams have combined to allow just 36-of-71 passing for 447 yards and three touchdowns in their coverage. That amounts to a measly 6.30 yards per target. They’re coming off a game where they held D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to just seven catches and 94 scoreless yards on 13 targets. All-in-all, just six wide receivers have finished top-36 against them, which isn’t good for Brown’s outlook, who should be considered a high-end WR4.
TEs
Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee: They both ran plenty of routes in Week 10, as Higbee ran 21 (just the third time this year over 19) while Everett ran 17 of them. Unfortunately, that’s going to lead to shared targets, and this duo has combined to average just 6.8 per game. Higbee’s six targets in last week’s game were a season-high, maybe a sign that he’s getting healthier? Meanwhile, Everett has seen 25 targets over the last five games, which keep him in the conversation. The Bucs have seen an average of 7.9 targets per game to tight ends, which isn’t a bad thing. They’ve only led to a 63.4 percent completion-rate and 6.94 yards per target, but they have allowed a touchdown every 11.8 targets, which is the ninth-most often. Because of the high target share and touchdowns, they’ve allowed eight different tight ends to finish as top-14 options. Unfortunately, these two have to split targets more than most. If I had to pick one, it’s Higbee, though he’s just a middling TE2 because of Everett’s presence.
Rob Gronkowski: He got back to his Gronk-like ways in Week 11, scoring for the fourth time in five games. He’s also totaled at least 41 yards in six of the last eight games, so he’s providing a floor that not many tight ends have. The Rams have done a phenomenal job with wide receivers, and that’s likely what’s led to tight ends accounted for 21.4 percent of the production to skill-position players against them, which ranks as the fourth-highest number in the league. Opponents have also given their tight ends a 24.3 percent target share (3rd in NFL), which also bodes well for Gronkowski’s floor in this game. The matchups on the perimeter are brutal, which is why we should expect to see a few more targets funneled Gronkowski’s way this week. The targets that have gone to tight ends, which is a big sample size, haven’t amounted to much, as the 6.03 yards per target indicates. George Kittle was the only tight end who totaled more than 42 yards against them, which seems bad, but six tight ends have caught four-plus passes. Knowing Gronkowski is harder to bring down than the average tight end, his catches should net more yardage, especially considering the Rams can’t exactly focus on shutting him down with Evans, Godwin, and Brown out there. Gronkowski should be viewed as an every-week TE1 at this point.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: Seahawks -3
Total: 57.5
Cardinals vs. Seahawks Betting Matchup
QBs
Kyler Murray: It wasn’t as pretty as he would’ve liked but Murray continued on his fantasy MVP tour in Week 10 where he threw for just 245 yards and one touchdown, but did what he’s been doing all year, racking up 61 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. He’s now on pace for 1,074 yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground. Do you know what Lamar Jackson had last year? 1,206 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground. When you factor in where everyone was drafted, he’s got to be the fantasy MVP at this point. If you looked at the average fantasy points of the quarterbacks who’ve played on the season versus what they’ve scored against the Seahawks, you’d find a 7.4-point discrepancy, the largest in the NFL. Knowing that Murray averages 29.3 fantasy points per game, we’re in for another big day. On a per-play basis, the Seahawks aren’t that bad (third-worst), but when you factor in the massive 73.1 plays per game their opponents have averaged, you get a big number. That number is 116.2 PPR points per game allowed to the combination of quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, though quarterbacks and wide receivers account for 70.7 percent of that production. Did you know that teams of running backs typically outscore the quarterback in fantasy points per game? On average, running backs typically average 5.0 more PPR points per game than quarterbacks, but against the Seahawks, quarterbacks average 0.8 more PPR points per game than the running backs. The Falcons are the only other team in the league who allow more points to quarterbacks than running backs. When you mix Murray’s rushing totals with the 51.0 fantasy points the Seahawks have allowed on the ground to quarterbacks (2nd-most), and then add in the 8.14 yards per attempt they’ve allowed, and you have the recipe for another top-three performance.
Russell Wilson: He was the league MVP over the first half of the season, but many have said that he’s slowly letting it slip away. He’s thrown an uncharacteristic seven interceptions over his last four games, which certainly limited his output in Week 10, as the Rams were happy to drain the clock. Still, that was the first game this season where Wilson had totaled fewer than 20.9 fantasy points, so let’s not panic that he struggled against a top-tier defense. Based on NFL’s NextGenStats, Wilson is completing 5.4 percent more passes than he’s expected to when you factor in how tight coverage is, as well as the average depth of target. He’s been among the best in the league for a few years in this metric, which highlights just how good he is. This is a rematch of a game that just happened a few weeks ago where Wilson completed 33-of-50 passes for 388 yards and three touchdowns, though he also threw three interceptions in that game. Fantasy managers weren’t concerned, as he also added another 84 yards on the ground to make up for those turnovers, the ninth-highest rushing total of his career. On paper, the Cardinals defense looks better than they were last year, but when you actually look at the competition they’ve played, you might reconsider. They’ve played Jimmy Garoppolo, Dwayne Haskins, Matthew Stafford, Teddy Bridgewater, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Wilson, Tua Tagovailoa, and Josh Allen. Over the last four weeks, they’ve allowed 20.8 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. These two teams rank in the top-three for total plays per game, and both face pass plays on 60.9-plus percent of plays. There are bound to be fireworks, so go ahead and get Wilson back in as an elite QB1.
RBs
Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds: I’ll be honest… I figured Drake would be eased in after practicing in a limited fashion, but the Cardinals threw him right back into his featured 1-2 down role, racking up 16 carries that netted 100 yards. After struggling to start the year, Drake has now gained 298 yards on his last 50 carries (5.96 yards per carry). Unfortunately, he hasn’t seen more than two targets in any single game, which means he’s more of a touchdown-or-bust option most weeks. There are a lot of fantasy managers out there who’ll see the Seahawks on the schedule and think it’s a mountain of fantasy points, that’s not so much true for running backs. Despite the outburst of three touchdowns last week by the Rams running backs, we’ve watched running backs total just 26.5 percent of the total production allowed to skill-position players, a number that ranks as the third lowest in the league. They’ve seen an average of just 19.1 carries per game against them, and keep in mind that’s while their opponents have averaged a league-high 73.1 plays per game. When all is said and done, teams run the ball just 35.4 percent of the time against them, which is the lowest number in the league. The glimmer of hope is that the Seahawks have allowed a rushing touchdown every 19.1 carries, which is the third-most often in the league. With a game that has a 57.5-point total, he should have a better than average shot at a touchdown, though his lack of usage in the passing game keeps him in the mid-to-low-end RB2 range because if the gamescript goes south, Edmonds would likely play just as many snaps. As for Edmonds, he has RB3/flex appeal with his passing game role, as that’s where running backs have had some success, averaging 5.96 yards per target. In a high-scoring game, it’s probably best to lean with Edmonds over someone who falls into the same tier.
Chris Carson, Alex Collins, Carlos Hyde, and DeeJay Dallas: Can we get Carson back this week? After watching Travis Homer lead the team in snaps but DeeJay Dallas lead them in production in Week 9, we watched Alex Collins lead them in snaps and production in Week 10. It’s completely unpredictable without Carson there. When these two teams met in Week 7, we watched Carson, Carlos Hyde, and Homer combine for 112 yards and a touchdown on the ground, and then the running backs combined for another six receptions and 33 yards through the air, so there’s production available. It’s not a smash spot or anything, as the Cardinals have allowed the 10th-fewest points per weighted opportunity to running backs. A big part of that is due to the fact that they’ve allowed just four rushing touchdowns on the year, which doesn’t bode well for two-down backs like Collins, though he did lead the team with 18 pass routes last week. The Cardinals haven’t allowed more than 84 yards on the ground to any running back, which has limited appeal. But if you go to the Seahawks implied team total of 31.0 points, you don’t want to overlook the possibility of a multiple-touchdown game. If Carson sits, you at least have to consider Collins or Hyde as an RB3 with upside in what’s projected to be a high-scoring affair. The issue is that we don’t know which one will get more work, though I’d suspect it’s Hyde considering they signed him in free agency when both running backs were available. They’ve also completely removed him from the injury report. Of course, this can all change if Carson plays (then you’d just play him), but for now, you need to be paying attention to the pre-game chatter, as someone will likely have an idea of how Hyde will be used. Dallas is likely down to just a few touches per game and can be safely dropped in redraft formats. *Update* It appears that Collins will not be called back up from the practice squad, meaning if Carson is out, Hyde is a decent RB2 play this week with a good shot to score.
WRs
DeAndre Hopkins: Prior to his miraculous hail mary touchdown, Hopkins was having a mediocre week with 6/84/0, but that one play changed his week and prevented him from having back-to-back weeks outside the top-24 receivers. He’s now produced 20-plus PPR points in 6-of-9 games this year, which is obviously a very good thing. Now onto a matchup with the Seahawks, where wide receivers have scored 16.9 more half-PPR points per game against them than they do on average. The Cardinals receivers have averaged 39.3 half-PPR points per game, so it that holds true, we’re looking at 56.2 half-PPR points available to the Cardinals receivers. Back in Week 7, we watched them combine for 48.9 points, so while it was good, it could have been better. In that game, Hopkins caught 10-of-12 targets for 103 yards and a touchdown. As crazy as it sounds, that was just the fourth-biggest PPR game of the season against the Seahawks. There have now been nine wide receivers who’ve cracked the 100-yard barrier against them. Start Hopkins wherever you can.
Christian Kirk: After posting top-32 numbers in four straight weeks (including three in the top-12), Kirk had a down performance against the Bills, finishing with just four catches for 27 yards. He’s now averaged 7.3 targets per game over the last three weeks, which bodes well for his production in this week’s matchup against the Seahawks. This should come as no surprise, but of the fantasy production the Seahawks have allowed, a league-high 62.6 percent of it go to the wide receiver position. The Steelers are the only other team over 56.7 percent. In fact, wide receivers have outscored running backs by a ridiculous 33.0 points per game against the Seahawks. The league average on that difference is around 12.0 points per game. Receivers have averaged a ridiculous 21.7 receptions per game against them, which allows for three fantasy-relevant receivers. The last time these two teams met, Kirk only caught five balls for 37 yards, but two of them were for touchdowns. If Shaquill Griffin has to sit out another week, Kirk will match up with D.J. Reed, a former fifth-round pick who’s allowed 16-of-19 passing for 242 yards in his coverage this year. Kirk is firmly in the WR3 conversation this week, and should probably be in the high-end portion of it.
Larry Fitzgerald: I typically don’t even write any notes on Fitzgerald, who’s not a fantasy option most weeks, but against the Seahawks, you should consider him if you have bye week issues. Receivers have combined to average a ridiculous 57.2 PPR points per game against the Seahawks, which is more than 10 points per game than the closest team. It certainly helps that receivers have seen a ridiculously-high 66.7 percent target share against them, which is also a league-high. They’ve allowed a massive 515.8 PPR points to wide receivers this year, while no other team has allowed more than 405.6 points to them. There have been 25 wide receivers who’ve finished top-50 against the Seahawks this year, including 20 of them who were top-36. That’s through nine games. The last time he played against them, he caught all eight of his targets for 62 yards. Fitzgerald isn’t sexy, but as a WR4 during a week with four teams on bye? Sure.
D.K. Metcalf: It would seem that Jalen Ramsey won the first round of their matchups against each other this year, holding Metcalf to just 28 yards on four targets. The good news is that it’s in the past. The bad news is that their other matchup against each other will be during fantasy championship week (Week 16) where Metcalf will hope to bounce back. Week 10 was just the second time all season he’s finished a game with fewer than 92 yards. The downside is that the first time he failed to him 92 yards was against the Cardinals, his Week 11 opponent. It’s odd because the Cardinals allow plenty of fantasy production, and wide receivers have accounted for 56.7 percent of the production by skill-position players against them (third-highest), so it’s tough to see that being an issue again. He only saw five targets in that game, catching two for 23 yards while Lockett simply went bananas. The Cardinals will obviously have to adjust to slow down Lockett, but when you look at the receivers who’ve done well against the Cardinals, it’s been slot receivers and pure route runners. The top-six performances they’ve allowed were to Lockett, Cole Beasley, Jamison Crowder, Terry McLaurin, Stefon Diggs, and Amari Cooper. Three of them are slot-heavy, while the other three are top-five route runners in the league. We’ve talked about the lack of competent quarterback play against the Cardinals this year, so the results might not mean much. You’re starting Metcalf every week, and it’s likely he bounces back considering his dominance this year.
Tyler Lockett: It was supposed to be a big bounce-back game for Lockett, though he failed to live up to expectations, recording just five catches for 65 yards. He’s now finished with 11.5 or less PPR points in five of his last six games. The one game in that mix where he did was against his Week 11 opponent, as he crushed the Cardinals to the tune of 15 receptions, 200 yards, and three touchdowns. Do they adjust and change things up to ensure he doesn’t abuse their secondary again, or do they accept it because they won that Week 7 matchup against them? The Cardinals have been beat up in the slot, no matter which cornerback is there, allowing 40-of-56 passing for 589 yards and four touchdowns. It’s also why we’ve seen the three top performances they’ve allowed on the season go to slot-heavy wide receivers (Lockett, Cole Beasley, and Jamison Crowder). Is it a lock to go down as it did last week? Not really, as Lockett totaled just 4/51/0 and 1/12/0 in the two matchups against a similar Cardinals defense last year. You’re still playing him as a high-end WR2 but understand that production may shift this week.
TEs
Dan Arnold: He tied a season-high for any Cardinals tight end last week… with four. Even if Darren Waller or Travis Kelce were to see four targets, we couldn’t confidently recommend them as a TE1, so we’re sure as heck not going to do it with Arnold, and that’s his ceiling. The Seahawks have also been one of the toughest matchups for tight ends, allowing a league-low 10.9 percent of fantasy production to skill-position players to them. Feel free to pass on Cardinals tight ends.
Greg Olsen: The timeshare continued in Week 10, as we saw Olsen targeted four times, Will Dissly two times, and Jacob Hollister one time. You’d have to go all the way back to Week 4 to find the last time Olsen saw more than four targets. The good news for Olsen is that he ran 34 routes, while Dissly and Hollister combined for just 10 routes. Unfortunately, the Cardinals are no longer the giving tree they were last year, as they’ve actually allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. They’ve faced a solid 7.0 targets per game but have allowed just 6.44 yards per target and two touchdowns on the season. The only tight end who’s been able to finish top-12 against them was Jesse James, a backup tight end. No starting tight end has finished with more than 53 yards or 9.3 PPR points against them, which doesn’t bode well for Olsen. However, if you’re playing a showdown DFS slate, you need to have exposure to Olsen, as the Seahawks do have a team-implied total of 31.0 points, which presents lots of touchdown upside, even if Olsen isn’t getting an extremely-high target share.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.