New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: Chargers -8.5
Total: 47
Jets vs. Chargers Betting Matchup

QBs
Joe Flacco: Too bad Flacco had to go into his bye week after that Monday night performance against the Patriots, as I’m sure he would’ve loved to continue the momentum from his 262-yard, three-touchdown performance. It was just the second time all season where a Jets quarterback finished with more than 13.8 fantasy points. Unfortunately, the matchup won’t be as good this week (not many realize the Patriots matchup is actually a great one). The Chargers have allowed a high 5.61 percent touchdown-rate which has inflated their overall numbers, but the 6.79 yards per attempt they’ve allowed is the sixth-lowest mark in the league. There have been just three quarterbacks who’ve thrown for more than 248 yards against them, and those quarterbacks were Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees. It would help Flacco’s floor if Joey Bosa had to miss another game, as the Chargers pass rush is weak without him, but still, Flacco is nothing more than a low-end QB2 who’s barely playable in 2QB formats.

Justin Herbert: Week 10 was the first time Herbert didn’t throw for at least 264 yards… he still scored 20.5 fantasy points. We’ve talked about his sneaky upside as a rusher and it came through again, as he found his way in for his third rushing touchdown on the season. Over his last six starts, he’s accounted for 19 total touchdowns (17 passing, 2 rushing). Without much success on the ground, he should continue to post big numbers, and now he has a matchup with the Jets woeful secondary. They’ve allowed 8.10 yards per attempt on the year, which ranks as the fifth-highest mark in football, which stems from them allowing a league-high 72.4 percent completion-rate. Four of the last five quarterbacks they’ve played have thrown for 307-plus yards, and the only exception was Cam Newton, who was able to throw for a season-high 274 yards while rushing for two touchdowns. They’ve allowed at least two touchdowns (one way or another) to each of the last six games they’ve played, so when you factor in Herbert’s yardage floor, there’s almost no risk in this matchup. Herbert is a rock-solid QB1 that should be in lineups every week, and this matchup only enhances his upside.

RBs
Frank Gore and Lamical Perine: For those who were hoping that Perine would eventually get to showcase his ability, it seems Adam Gase doesn’t want to make that happen. Since cutting Le’Veon Bell, the touch count has been Gore 50, Perine 40. We’re seeing a lot more of Gore with early-down work (he’s outproducing Perine there) while Perine is getting slightly more passing-down usage. When you see this sort of timeshare in a backfield that averages just 23.0 touches per game, it’s a problem. The Chargers have seen just 25.8 running back touches per game, which is one of the lower marks in the league, which again, is not good for a timeshare. Gore has now gone 230 carries without a single touchdown, which dates back to Week 3 of last year. Add in his 3.57 yards per carry he’s averaging, and it really doesn’t matter that the Chargers are allowing 4.87 yards per carry. They’ve tightened up in the red zone, too, allowing just five rushing touchdowns (seventh-fewest) on 178 carries. Production through the air against them has been minimal, as they’ve allowed just 4.59 yards per target, which is the third-lowest mark in the league. There was a report that came out on Wednesday where Adam Gase said Perine would “get more work moving forward” but also went on to say that Gore will still be involved. I suppose we should expect Perine to lead the timeshare, but even then, he’s stuck in the low-end RB3/high-end RB4 territory, as this duo has averaged just 22.5 touches per game over the last four games.

Kalen Ballage and Joshua Kelley: Over the last two weeks, we’ve seen Ballage make his mark on this backfield, racking up 137 yards and a touchdown on the ground, while chipping in seven catches for 49 yards through the air. Did I think it was possible that Ballage would be a top-12 running back over a two-week stretch in 2020? Nope, but he ranks as the No. 12 over the last two weeks. Don’t expect Kelley to make a resurgence any time soon either, as he’s averaging 0.66 fewer yards per carry than he’s been expected to according to NFL’s NextGenStats, which is the second-worst number in the league. Ballage gets his “revenge game” against the Jets this week, a run defense that’s underrated by many. They’ve allowed just one 100-yard running back this season, and it was Melvin Gordon when he saw 23 carries on Thursday night football. In the same scheme last year, they allowed just one 100-yard rusher. To be fair, they’ve lost quite a few players, but it’s not an easy matchup. According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric that factors in level of competition, the Jets are the 10th-best run defense in football. It’s no coincidence that they’ve allowed the 12th-fewest PPR points per weighted opportunity to running backs. Running backs have averaged a rock-solid 29.2 touches per game against them, so we should be expecting another 15-plus touch game out of Ballage. Even if efficiency isn’t great, he’s in the low-end RB2 conversation this week. Kelley saw a season-low seven touches last week, moving him well into the RB4 territory as someone who’s finished with more than 3.1 yards per carry just twice through nine games.

WRs
Jamison Crowder: He wound-up playing in Week 9 but it was the first time all season he played a game and saw fewer than 10 targets. Is it a result of Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims being healthy? It’s possible, so we can’t automatically assume he’s the target hog he was to start the year, though it also could’ve had something to do with him being questionable throughout the week and not necessarily being built into the gameplan. The Chargers traded away their starting slot cornerback Desmond King at the trade deadline, which has led to last year’s undrafted free agent Tevaughn Campbell covering the slot. That… hasn’t gone well. He’s allowed 9-of-11 passing for 92 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage. Jakeem Grant walked into relevance last week, totaling 4/43/1 on just five targets. If the Jets understand the matchups and where to exploit, Crowder should get his double-digit targets again this week. He should be in lineups as a high-end WR3.

Breshad Perriman: He hasn’t been healthy throughout the year, but he looked good in Week 9 against the Patriots, racking up five catches for 101 yards and two touchdowns. His targets by week have been 5, 2, 8, 2, 7. That’s not great for reliability. The Chargers defense has hardly been anything close to what we expected (injuries have decimated them), but of the production they allow to skill-position players, wide receivers are accounting for just 45.2 percent of it, which ranks as the fifth-lowest mark in the league. On top of that, Perriman is a perimeter-only receiver, which means he’ll see a lot of Casey Hayward and Michael Davis, who’ve been much better than the defenders over the middle of the field. They’ve combined to allow 56-of-100 passing for 798 yards and five touchdowns. That amounts to just 7.98 yards per target and a touchdown every 20.0 targets. The Chargers as a team have allowed just 23 pass plays of 20-plus yards this year, which ranks as the fifth-fewest in the league. When you combine his unstable target share with the matchup, he’s nothing more than a boom-or-bust WR5.

Denzel Mims: He’s only played three NFL games, but he’s shown some promise, totaling at least 42 yards in each game. Unfortunately, it seems like his targets may be hard to predict (like all Jets receivers), as he’s seen 7, 3, 8 in his three games. Similar to Perriman, Mims has played almost exclusively on the perimeter, which means he’ll also go against Casey Hayward and Michael Davis, one of the better perimeter duos in the league this year. As stated in the Perriman notes, they’ve combined to allow 56-of-100 passing for 798 yards and five touchdowns, which amounts to just 7.98 yards per target and a touchdown every 20.0 targets. Flacco might be better for their projections because he can throw the deep ball (Mims has the highest aDOT on the team at 13.7 yards), but the Chargers haven’t been susceptible to the big play this year. Mims is someone to monitor but he’s nothing more than a dart-throw in fantasy lineups right now with limited upside.

Keenan Allen: We’re now eight games into Herbert’s career (half of a season), and over that time, Allen is the No. 5 wide receiver in fantasy football, which includes a game where he had to leave before halftime. He saw “just” seven targets in Week 10, which was his season-low in the full games he’s played. He’s now going out to play a Jets team that’s allowed six wide receivers to finish with 22-plus PPR points and as the WR11 or better. The toughest matchup against them is in the slot, so it’s good news that Allen has played just 46.5 percent of his snaps there. It’s not like he can’t beat Brian Poole, but it’s easier to beat Pierre Desir (who was cut this week) and Blessuan Austin on the perimeter. Allen should see Austin more, who’s been the better of the two, though he’s still allowed a 99.8 QB Rating in his coverage. Look, when you have a receiver who’s averaging 10.3 targets per game going against a secondary that’s allowed a 7.17 percent catch-rate and 9.34 yards per target, you’re starting him as a WR1, period.

Mike Williams: We talked about it last week; Williams had a very tough matchup on the perimeter last week, as he was bound to see a lot of Xavien Howard and Byron Jones in coverage. Seeing him finish with just two catches for 38 yards wasn’t too surprising. Don’t worry about it because he’s likely going to get back on track this week. Williams plays most of his snaps at RWR, which means he’s going to see the most of Pierre Desir in coverage. He’s allowed 35-of-47 passing for 491 yards and five touchdowns in his coverage. That’s 2.43 PPR points per target, which ranks as the 10th-most in football among cornerbacks who’ve played at least 100 coverage snaps. The five touchdowns he’s allowed in his coverage is the most in the NFL, which is perfect for someone like Williams, who’s a big red zone target. He’s seen at least five targets in four of the last five games, so he deserves to be in the risk/reward WR3/4 conversation this week. *Update* Desir was actually cut mid-week and will not be covering Williams. It will likely be Corey Ballentine or rookie Bryce Hall that takes his spot in the secondary. Ballentine struggled with the Giants and we haven’t seen much of Hall. This doesn’t change much for Williams’ outlook. 

TEs
Chris Herndon and Ryan Griffin: The two combined for just 16 routes in their last game (Herndon 10, Griffin 6). Over the last three games with the wide receivers getting healthy, the two of these tight ends have combined for just six targets. You’re not playing a Jets tight end.

Hunter Henry: It was more of the same with Henry last week, as he caught four passes and finished in-between 30-33 yards for the third straight game, but he scored, making everything appear okay. Again, he hasn’t topped 39 yards since way back in Week 3. It’s something that makes no sense to me, as he’s averaging 6.6 targets per game from a quarterback who’s been fantastic, yet he’s struggling to produce.  The Jets have allowed a 75.0 percent completion-rate (6th), 8.38 yards per target (5th), and a touchdown every 9.3 targets (third-most often) to tight ends, which all adds up to 2.23 PPR points per target, the third-highest mark in the NFL. It’s considered the eighth-best schedule adjusted matchup for tight ends, as they’ve averaged 13.6 percent more than their seasonal-average when playing the Jets. There have been just three tight ends who’ve seen four-plus targets against them, and their finishes were TE1, TE5, and TE14. Despite Henry struggling to produce much yardage, he remains in the TE1 conversation in a plus-matchup.

Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos

Spread: Dolphins -3.5
Total: 45
Dolphins vs. Broncos Betting Matchup

QBs
Tua Tagovailoa: The Dolphins aren’t turning into a pass-heavy team under Tagovailoa, that much is for sure. He’s thrown just 75 pass attempts in his three starts, which amount to just 25.0 attempts per game, and would be just 400 of them over a full 16-game season. Because of that, it’s going to be tough to rely on him for fantasy purposes. On top of that, his receiving options are extremely limited and because of that, he’s thrown into tight coverage a league-leading 23.4 percent of the time, which is actually higher than Ryan Fitzpatrick‘s 20.3 percent mark. That doesn’t leave much room for error. The Broncos haven’t been a defense who’s allowed much efficiency through the air, allowing just 6.86 yards per attempt (7th-lowest mark in the NFL). Because of that, they’ve allowed just 243.2 passing yards per game, which is one of the lowest totals in the league. Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, and Justin Herbert were all able to throw for three touchdowns against them, but each of them threw the ball at least 38 times, a number Tagovailoa can only dream of. He has shown some mobility with 35 rushing yards against the Cardinals, but outside of that game, he’s rushed for -1 yard. This doesn’t give us a very high floor, so when you take that and combine it with the low game total, it’s a bit worrisome. Tagovailoa should be considered a mid-to-low-end QB2 with a limited ceiling due to limited attempts.

Drew Lock: His average depth of target this season is a league-leading 9.7 yards down the field, which may need to get toned down a bit considering he took a beating last week against a Raiders team that hasn’t pressured the quarterback much at all this season. He has a league-low 25.2 QB Rating while under pressure this season. In case you didn’t know, if you throw the ball into the ground every play, you get a 39.6 QB Rating. Lock isn’t great from a clean pocket, as his 86.2 QB Rating highlights, but he’s a lot better in that scenario. The Dolphins have brought the seventh-most pressure to opposing quarterbacks this year and have sacked them on 6.29 percent of dropbacks. The Dolphins defense has been playing extremely well as of late and have now held five quarterbacks to 6.5 or less yards per attempt, including Justin Herbert in Week 10 when he threw for just 187 yards on 32 pass attempts. The 13 passing touchdowns they’ve allowed is the sixth-fewest in the league, and keep in mind they’ve played Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, and Herbert. Quarterbacks have averaged 5.8 percent fewer fantasy points than they’ve averaged against non-Dolphins opponents. Lock is not someone who should be trusted as a streamer and isn’t even a great 2QB option this week.

RBs
Salvon Ahmed and Matt Breida: After seeing just seven carries in his season debut with the Dolphins, Ahmed was thrust into a larger role in Week 10 and he delivered, racking up 85 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries against the Chargers. The combination of DeAndre Washington and Patrick Laird received just four carries between the two of them, so Ahmed basically got the Myles Gaskin role. The downside was that he finished with just one target. It wasn’t lack of snaps, as he led the running backs in routes. We have to assume he’s done enough to hold onto that role, even with Breida expected back. Even when healthy, Breida hasn’t totaled more than 10 touches in a game with the Dolphins. The Broncos had been one of the best run defenses in football, but they had a hiccup last week, allowing a ridiculous 193 yards and four touchdowns on 37 carries to the Raiders running backs last week. I suppose we’ve seen them slip in Week 8 as well when the Chargers running backs combined for 188 yards on 34 carries, though they didn’t score. Through the first six weeks, the Broncos hadn’t allowed more than 116 rushing yards in a game. What changed? Mike Purcell, their best nose tackle, went down with a season ending injury and has missed the last three weeks. The loss of him and Jurrell Casey have proven to be too much for them to handle. Because of that, Ahmed should be played as a low-end RB2/high-end RB3. I’d say higher, but we really don’t know how the touches will be divided with Breida back. As for Breida, he’s nothing more than an RB4-type option who’s guaranteed nothing more than five touches or so.

Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay: We’ve gone back and forth every week on these two, trying to figure out who has the most value, but in the end, what if it’s neither of them? Here’s a chart documenting their finishes by week in PPR formats:

Just once have one of them finished as a top-20 running back since Week 4. The Broncos defense is falling behind early and often, forcing them into a negative gamescript and passing more than they’d like. The Dolphins haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown to a running back since way back in Week 4 and haven’t allowed more than 128 yards on the ground to any team of running backs. It helps that they haven’t faced many carries (21.8 per game), which is not great for this timeshare. They have allowed a high 6.55 yards per target to running backs, which ranks as the sixth-highest mark in the league, and part of the reason they’ve allowed the 13th-most fantasy points through the air to running backs. The Broncos haven’t seemed to take advantage of matchups like this, like when they played the Falcons a few weeks ago, a team that had been crushed through the air by running backs, but Gordon and Lindsay combined for just one catch. Considering Gordon played double the snaps that Lindsay did, Gordon would be the preferred option, though he’s nothing more than an RB3. Meanwhile, Lindsay finds himself in RB4 territory.

WRs
DeVante Parker: He’s not generating any separation, as his 1.8 yards of separation ranks as the second worst in the NFL, so he must rely on his quarterbacks to target him in tight coverage. Fortunately, Tagovailoa has been willing to do so. Parker had a brutal matchup last week with Casey Hayward and finished with just two catches for 31 yards, though he had a touchdown that was overturned that would’ve changed the hearts of many fantasy managers. He’s now seen seven targets in each of his last two games with Tagovailoa, which should continue with the limited pass-catching options they have available right now. The Broncos have A.J. Bouye and Michael Ojemudia on the perimeter, which is where Parker spends most of his time. Those two have combined to allow 43-of-67 passing for 585 yards and four touchdowns in their coverage. There have been eight wide receivers who’ve been able to total 81-plus yards against the Broncos, though none of them have topped 104 yards, and that’s despite 12 wide receivers seeing seven or more targets. The lack of passing with Tagovailoa under center is limiting to both Parker’s floor and his ceiling, though we’d take seven targets per week from a WR3, which is where he is in the rankings, though in the mid-to-lower portion.

Jerry Jeudy: Since moving to the perimeter, Jeudy has been much more involved in the offense and has 32 targets over the last three games. It surely helps that the Broncos defense hasn’t been able to stop anyone, which has led to negative gamescripts. Still, Jeudy managers will take it, as he’s finished with 10.8-plus points in three straight games. Teams haven’t had much success while doing it, but wide receivers have seen a rather-high 61.9 percent target share against the Dolphins, which ranks as the third-highest mark in the league. The perimeter duo of Xavien Howard and Byron Jones is one of the best in football. Just last week we saw them limit Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to just five catches for 77 yards combined, though Allen did find the end zone. On the season, the Dolphins have allowed just 1.65 PPR points per target, which ranks as the fifth-lowest mark in the league, so volume has been important. Jeudy’s volume is enough to keep him in that WR3 conversation, but this game just feels like a low-scoring affair.

Tim Patrick: He was ejected from last week’s game for fighting, but at least he was able to produce four catches for 61 yards prior to that happening. The downside is that he’s fallen behind Jeudy on the pecking order. This week’s matchup is not a great one for wide receivers, particularly those who play almost all their snaps on the perimeter. Wide receivers are catching just 60.1 percent of the passes thrown their way against the Dolphins, which is the second-lowest mark in the NFL. Receivers have been targeted a solid 22.6 times per game (5th-most in NFL), which helps make up for some of the lack of efficiency. Patrick’s primary matchup is going to be with Xavien Howard, a cornerback who’s dominant at times. If there’s one particular type of receiver he’s struggled with, it’s those who are elite route runners, which is not something you’d say about Patrick. All in all, there have been just 10 wide receivers who’ve finished as top-36 options against the Dolphins despite all that volume. Patrick is just a low-end WR4/high-end WR5 in this matchup.

KJ Hamler: He’s the team’s slot receiver, which was the role that Jeudy was playing earlier in the year. That’s going to limit his reliability (like it did Jeudy), but if we keep seeing 10 targets per game like he has the last two weeks, he’s going to be in play. He might have the best matchup on the field this week, because while Jeudy and Patrick deal with Xavien Howard and Byron Jones, Hamler gets Nik Needham. He’s a formerly undrafted free agent who’s allowed 68-of-109 passing for 938 yards and nine touchdowns in his coverage over the last two years, which is good enough for a 109.8 QB Rating. His official 40-time was 4.72 seconds, which doesn’t quite bode well for his chances of keeping up with the speedy Hamler, who was expected to run a high 4.2 or low 4.3-second 40-yard dash (hamstring injury kept him from completing at the Combine). If you’re looking for a potential home run threat, Hamler could be it as a boom-or-bust WR4-type option.

TEs
Mike Gesicki: In the three games with Tagovailoa under center, Gesicki has seen just 11 targets, caught six passes, and totaled 90 scoreless yards. That’s not going to get anyone excited, especially when we know that target share isn’t the problem. Gesicki actually has a decent 17 percent target share over the last two weeks, but the lack of pass attempts drags everyone down. The Broncos have allowed the 12th-fewest points per game to tight ends, but they have allowed the 10th-most receptions, which highlights a lack of touchdowns. When you see they’ve allowed just two of them on 61 targets, you know why they’re a matchup that’s “in the red.” Still, it’s not great to hear that tight ends average 13.2 percent fewer fantasy points against the Broncos than they do on average, which is the eighth-worst number in the league. Eight different tight ends have finished in-between 31-49 yards against them, with just one tight end topping that (Hayden Hurst, 62 yards). This seems like another game where Gesicki could net 30-50 yards, and knowing the Broncos haven’t been susceptible to touchdowns, he’s nothing more than a low-ceiling TE2.

Noah Fant: I mentioned last week that I was worried about Fant’s efficiency after reinjuring his high-ankle sprain, so watching him turn seven targets into just three receptions for 18 yards against the Raiders wasn’t very surprising. The more the weeks go on, the better he should be, but the matchup against Miami hasn’t been a good one for tight ends. We’re entering Week 11 of the season and they’ve allowed just one tight end to finish with more than 9.1 PPR points. That tight end was Hunter Henry last week, who finished with just four catches for 30 yards… but scored a touchdown. There have been four tight ends, including George Kittle, who’ve seen six-plus targets against them, but no tight end has finished with more than 44 yards. By looking at their schedule, they haven’t played many top-tier tight ends, but still, they rank as the ninth-toughest matchup according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. Fant should be considered a mediocre low-end TE1.

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Vikings -7.5
Total: 48
Cowboys vs. Vikings Betting Matchup

QBs
Andy Dalton: Now having missed two weeks with his concussion and having his bye week, Dalton should be back in the lineup against the Vikings. Through 10 weeks, the Vikings have allowed the third-most fantasy points per actual pass attempt (no rushing), which is important for a quarterback like Dalton who has very limited mobility. We know the Cowboys offense is built around the wide receivers, so it makes you feel a lot better about Dalton knowing wide receivers have caught more touchdowns against Minnesota than anyone else. Don’t let Nick Foles‘ poor performance on Monday night make you think the Vikings have a good defense; they don’t. There have already been five quarterbacks who’ve posted 20-plus fantasy points against them through nine games. They’ve allowed a 66.5 percent completion-rate (15th), 7.64 yards per attempt (8th-most), and a 5.79 percent touchdown-rate (7th-highest), so it’s not a volume thing, though the massive 68.6 plays per game against them certainly doesn’t hurt. The Cowboys have thrown the ball just 54.9 percent of the time over their last three games, but that would still amount to 38 dropbacks if the plays held up. Dalton is not a surefire streamer in 1QB leagues, but I’m confident playing him as a low-end QB2 in SuperFlex/2QB formats.

Kirk Cousins: He played competently against the Bears on Monday night, throwing for 292 yards and two touchdowns, while picking up the slack for the run game. Did you know Cousins has averaged a career-high 8.8 yards per attempt and 6.9 percent touchdown-rate this season? The volume hasn’t been there (27 or less attempts in 6-of-9 games), which is what has kept him out of the streaming conversation most weeks. The big concern with Cousins in this game is that the Vikings throw the ball on just 48.9 percent of their plays (third-lowest in NFL), while the Cowboys opponents have thrown the ball on just 52.2 percent of plays (third-lowest in NFL), so this just screams low volume game. The crazy part about the Cowboys allowing the 11th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks is that the 7.10 yards per attempt they’ve allowed is actually lower than the league average but the 6.85 percent touchdown-rate is easily the highest in the league. They’ve allowed a passing touchdown every 103.6 passing yards, which is a ton. Are we expecting their touchdown rate to come down or the yards per attempt to come up because it’s highly unlikely they both stay where they are. Considering the Cowboys have allowed a massive 4.79 yards per carry, we should see Dalvin Cook bounce back in a big way, which will limit Cousins’ upside unless the Cowboys can throw points on the board. Cousins should be considered a mid-to-low-end QB2 due to lack of confidence in volume.

RBs
Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard: Over the last four games, Elliott looks like a shell of his former self. It’s not all his fault, of course, as he’s lost his starting quarterback and starting left tackle on the offensive line. In those four games, he’s combined for 208 yards on 61 carries (3.41 yards per carry) and 12 receptions for 65 yards. He hasn’t scored in that time, either, leaving him as the RB31 over that span, behind guys like Jerick McKinnon and J.D. McKissic. To be fair, his last two games were among the worst you can have as a running back against the Eagles and Steelers, but he’s no longer the must-start RB1 you drafted. If you’re looking for touchdowns against the Vikings, you might not find them. On the year, they’re tied for the league’s lowest touchdown output to running backs (5). While their pass defense has been bad, they’ve been a stout unit up front from an efficiency standpoint, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per weighted opportunity. The two running backs who were able to total more than 75 yards on the ground were Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor, who both totaled 26 carries. As a whole, they’ve allowed 135.2 total yards per game to running backs, which isn’t great when you see that Pollard has been getting 35 percent of the touches over the last four weeks (and has been more efficient). That may’ve had something to do with Elliott’s hamstring, but it brings on some additional risk. Elliott should be considered a middling RB2 who needs to find his way into the end zone, but I’m one who believes the bye week came at the perfect time for him. Pollard has at least eight touches in each of the last five games, so he can be played as an RB4 in a pinch, though it is a tough matchup.

Dalvin Cook: It felt like Cook was consistently just running into a brick wall, as the Bears sold out to stop the run. For whatever reason, the Vikings decided to bang Cook’s head against the wall 30 times, which you hope didn’t wear him out for this week. Remember, they’ll have just five days in-between games, and not the usual six days. The Cowboys have faced a run play on 47.8 percent of plays, which ranks as the third-highest mark in the league, while the Vikings are the second run-heaviest team in the league. The Cowboys have faced 26.4 carries per game against running backs, which is the second-most in the NFL, behind only the Texans. It’s not all perfect, as teams have targeted their running backs on just 13.4 percent of attempts against the Cowboys, which is the lowest mark in the league. That’s led to them allowing just 28 receptions on the year to running backs, which is the second fewest in the NFL, and a league-low 148 yards on them. No other team has allowed fewer than 201 yards through the air to running backs. They’re also one of just six teams who’ve yet to allow a receiving touchdown to running backs. It’s pretty amazing to see they’ve allowed just 4.76 PPR points per game through the air to running backs, as no other team has been close. But we know where to expect production from Cook, and it hasn’t been through the air, as he has just 20 receptions for 189 yards on the year. If he’s not too worn down, Cook should run all over the Cowboys defense that’s allowed a massive 4.71 yards per carry. Play him as an RB1 and reap the rewards.

WRs
Amari Cooper: The quarterback change was always going to negatively affect Cooper and his teammates, but outside of one game against the Giants, he’s been solid. Cooper’s finished as the WR38 or better in 7-of-9 games, including 2-of-3 without Prescott. The issue is upside, as he’s not going to score nearly as much, and the Cowboys aren’t going to throw nearly as much. The Vikings have allowed more fantasy points per target (2.20) than any other team in the league, which certainly helps you feel a little bit better. They don’t have a shadow cornerback, so the Cowboys will be able to pick and choose their matchups. Most of Cooper’s snaps are at RWR, which would put him against 2018 undrafted free agent Chris Jones in coverage. He’s been forced into the starting lineup due to injuries and has allowed 11-of-13 passing for 100 yards and a touchdown in his coverage, good for a 124.4 QB Rating. Think about this… the Vikings have allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers but have seen the fourth-fewest targets. Cooper should be in lineups as a WR2 this week.

CeeDee Lamb: He hasn’t lost his targets with the quarterback change, as he’s still seen at least five targets in every game (he’s one of just nine receivers who can say that), including seven targets against the Steelers that netted 71 yards and a touchdown. He’s also totaled at least four receptions in 8-of-9 games, which highlights a solid floor for those in PPR formats. The Vikings have allowed more touchdowns to wide receivers than any other team in the league, and it’s not even based on a large number of targets, as the one touchdown every 10.3 targets is more often than any other team in the league. The Vikings have faced just 18.2 wide receiver targets per game, which is the fourth-fewest in the league. Meanwhile, the Cowboys receivers have been targeted 27.0 times per game. When you see the Vikings have allowed 2.20 PPR points per target to receivers, we could see some fireworks if Dalton can play competently. His primary matchup will be with fellow rookie Jeff Gladney, who has allowed 506 yards and five touchdowns on 57 targets in coverage. Lamb should offer a stable floor as a WR3 in this contest with upside for more.

Michael Gallup: There are still a lot of fantasy managers who choose to start Gallup in fantasy, which is odd considering how volatile he’s been. Here are his weekly finishes in half-PPR formats: 57, 61, 7, 82, 38, 70, 128, 37, 71. The one game he finished as a top-36 receiver against was the Seahawks, who’ve allowed essentially every receiver to finish top-36 against them. This has been a bad season. The matchup against the Vikings will surely be tempting, as they’re the defense that’s allowed the third-most fantasy points to receivers. They’ve allowed a 68.3 percent completion-rate (6th-highest), 13.66 yards per reception (7th-highest), and a touchdown every 10.3 targets (most often). Gallup has seen 19 targets over the last two games, though those games were without Dalton under center. The matchup is great, which makes Gallup an interesting tournament option for DFS players, but in redraft, he’s just a risky WR4.

Adam Thielen: It was Jefferson who stole the show on Monday night, but fortunately for Thielen, he found the end zone twice, salvaging his fantasy day, as he finished with just 43 yards. Thielen has averaged just 5.3 targets per game over the last four games, which is certainly not ideal for a guy most are relying on WR1 production out of. He may see more this week, as wide receivers have been targeted 61.6 percent of the time against the Cowboys, which is the fourth-highest mark in the league. Receivers have also scored a touchdown every 11.3 targets against them, which is the second-most often in the NFL, behind only the Vikings. There have been nine wide receivers to rack up 19.7 or more PPR points against the Cowboys, which is the second-highest number in the league. Why 19.7 PPR points? That’s the average number of points it took to finish as a WR1 last year. Thielen should remain in lineups as a high-end WR2.

Justin Jefferson: There are many doing victory laps on Jefferson last week but playing him against the league’s No. 1 pass defense when he’d seen four targets in each of the prior two games seemed foolish. It was just the third time this season where Jefferson had seen more than five targets. That doesn’t take away from the great player he is/can be, because if he were locked into seven-plus targets a week, he’d be in the high-end WR2 conversation. Yardage hasn’t been an issue for him, as his 3.23 yards per route run leads the NFL, slightly ahead of Davante Adams‘ 3.11 yards per route. The Cowboys have allowed 8.76 yards per target to wide receivers, which ranks as the 10th-highest mark in the league, and they just lost one of their starting cornerbacks (Trevon Diggs) for the year. They’ve also allowed 16 touchdowns to wide receivers this year, which ranks as the second-highest mark to only the Vikings themselves. In fact, these two teams are the only ones who’ve allowed more than 13 touchdowns to wide receivers. His primary matchup should be with Anthony Brown, a slot cornerback who’s being forced to play on the perimeter due to injuries. Jefferson should remain in lineups this week, but keep expectations realistic as a low-end WR2 considering the unstable nature of his targets.

TEs
Dalton Schultz: If there’s someone’s production who hasn’t been too affected by the quarterback changes in Dallas, it’s Schultz, who’s seen 15 targets over the last two weeks, and hauling 10 of them in for 101 yards. Those games weren’t with Dalton, but we should expect just as much, if not more passing. Schultz goes into a matchup against the Vikings this week, the team who’s allowed a league-high 9.71 yards per target to tight ends. They’ve allowed at least 46 yards and/or a touchdown to every tight end who’s seen three-plus targets against them (there have been seven of them). The downside is that Football Outsiders has them ranked as the sixth-worst matchup for tight ends based on DVOA, which factors in level of competition. That’s likely because tight ends are averaging 17.7 percent fewer fantasy points against the Vikings than they do on average, which means competition has dictated a lot of the success they’ve allowed. Schultz is in the TE2 conversation as a decent last-minute floor option for streamers.

Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith: Smith didn’t practice at all last week, so we can’t assume he plays this week. The only way you can play one of these tight ends with any confidence is if the other one is out of the lineup. Why is that? Well, they’ve combined to average just 5.0 targets per game this season. If we get five targets out of a streamer, we’ll take it, though it’s not great. If Smith misses another game, Rudolph may be worth considering, as he did see five targets last week, and the Cowboys rank as the third-worst defense against tight ends in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric that factors in level of competition. Lack of volume has been an issue for tight ends against them, though, as they’ve seen just 5.9 targets per game, which is towards the bottom of the league. On a per-target basis, they’ve allowed 2.03 PPR points to tight ends, which ranks as the fifth-highest mark in the league. But again, if we can’t guarantee that Smith is out, or that either of them will get five targets, it’s not worth taking the risk. If Smith misses, Rudolph becomes a fine streamer in the high-end TE2 range. *Update* Smith was limited in practice all week and is listed as questionable.

Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Colts -3
Total: 51
Packers vs. Colts Betting Matchup

QBs
Aaron Rodgers: When you look through Rodgers’ early season schedule, it’s easy to see why he absolutely crushed. Among his opponents were the Vikings (twice), Lions, Saints, Falcons, Texans, and Jaguars. There was also a game against the Bucs, where he finished with just 160 yards and no touchdowns. The next tough matchup is on deck. The Colts defense has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to their opponents, as quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends have combined for just 73.49 points per game. Even if you wanted to break it down from an efficiency standpoint, they’ve allowed the third-fewest points per play. They’ve allowed just 6.72 yards per attempt on the season, which ranks as the fifth-lowest mark in the league. Removing production on the ground, there are just five teams who’ve allowed less than 0.425 fantasy points per pass attempt, and the Colts (0.385) are one of them. When you factor in their opponents have run just 60.1 plays per game (third-fewest), they’ve allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The Colts games net an average of 121.7 plays per game, which is tied for the fewest in the league, while the Packers games have netted just 124.7 plays, which is the third-fewest in the NFL. This game isn’t likely going to net a lot of volume. There’s certainly concerns about Rodgers this week, knocking him down into low-end QB1 territory, but it’s extremely tough to sit him considering he’s been a top-eight quarterback in 7-of-9 games.

Philip Rivers: He played a solid game on Thursday night against the Titans, completing 74.4 percent of his passes for 308 yards and one touchdown. He’s been much better over his last four games than he was to start the year, as you can see by the splits:

With no preseason, it’s possible that he’s just coming around to the offense and developing chemistry with the pass-catchers. Keep in mind that the Week 6-10 sample size includes a brutal game against the Ravens. The issue this week is that the Packers opponents have averaged just 58.1 offensive plays per game, which is not good for a Colts team that passes the ball just 56.4 percent of the time. This could very easily be a sub-30 pass attempt game for Rivers, which is far from ideal for a quarterback who offers no mobility and has thrown 11 touchdowns through nine games. The Packers have allowed just three top-18 quarterback performances all season and just one of them since Week 3. Again, it doesn’t have to do with lack of efficiency, as quarterbacks have completed 68.0 percent of passes and averaged 7.64 yards per attempt, but the 31.6 pass attempts per game they’ve faced destroys the streaming appeal with Rivers, who’s just a low-end QB2.

RBs
Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams: Just as we suspected, the Packers went to more of a timeshare with both of these backs healthy. Jones finished with 19 opportunities while Williams had 12 of them, which isn’t ideal for fantasy purposes. Fortunately, Jones is one of the most efficient running backs in football. The downside is that they’re going from a matchup with the league’s third-best matchup for running backs to the one that’s the second-toughest for running backs. On average, running backs score 5.3 fewer fantasy points than their league average against the Colts. The only running back who’s totaled 100-plus yards on the ground against Matt Eberflus’ defense in his two and a half years there is Derrick Henry. We’re talking a 41-game sample size, so this run defense is no joke. If you look at fantasy points allowed to running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, the Colts have allowed 59.9 PPR points per game to all of them combined, which is the lowest number in the NFL. By comparison, the Seahawks have allowed 57.2 PPR points per game to wide receivers alone. There have been just three teams in the NFL who’ve allowed fewer than 188.8 PPR points to the running back position, and the Colts are one of them, as they’ve allowed just 174.1 PPR points through their nine games (19.6 per game). This is not great for a timeshare. If there’s a glimmer of hope, it’s that they’ve allowed 1.75 PPR points per target to running backs, which ranks as the third-highest mark in the league. Jones should be played, but lower expectations into the low-end RB1 range. Williams is more of an unappealing RB4 for this game who has a limited ceiling against a team who’s faced just 25.4 running back touches per game, which might leave him 7-10 touches in a tough matchup.

Jonathan Taylor, Jordan Wilkins, and Nyheim Hines: I can’t tell you how many followers have asked me about what to do with this backfield, and it’s tough to say that my guess is any better than theirs. Here are the touch splits by week:

Now explain to me if there are any trends you see, outside of the fact that Taylor has been slowly declining. Hines looked extremely good on Thursday night, but he’s looked good before and hasn’t received a lot of touches. Wilkins will likely lose touches after alligator-arming his goal-line target that easily could’ve gone for a pick-six. It stinks that we don’t have a clear play here, as the Packers are a team to target with running backs. Running backs have averaged 0.21 more fantasy points per play against the Packers than they do on average. That’s the highest mark in the NFL, though their opponents have struggled to rack up plays. When you look at the production they’ve allowed to skill-position players, running backs have accounted for 43.2 percent of it, the most in the NFL. By comparison, running backs account for just 24.9 percent of the production the Falcons give up goes to running backs. When comparing production allowed to running backs and wide receivers, the Packers have allowed just 2.0 more PPR points per game to wide receivers than running backs, which ranks as the second-smallest gap in the league. On average, NFL teams allow about 12.0 more PPR points per game to wide receivers than running backs. It’s not just on the ground, either, as running backs have seen a massive 22.9 percent target share against them (4th in NFL). Despite the Packers facing just 28.0 touches per game to running backs (right around the league average), they’ve allowed the second-most PPR points per game to them. That’s because they’re allowing a rushing touchdown every 18.0 carries, which is more often than any other team in the league. They’ve also allowed a league-high 7.40 yards per target and 1.94 PPR points per target through the air to running backs. All in all, the Packers have allowed more fantasy points per opportunity to running backs than any team in the league. The problem is that we don’t know who to trust in this backfield. If Taylor doesn’t get it done here, he’s droppable. I’m willing to take the risk and play him as an upside RB3. Hines falls into a similar space, whose floor should be higher than Taylor’s, though as referenced in the chart above, he’s hardly a guarantee for more than five touches. Wilkins should lose more touches and fall into RB4 territory.

WRs
Davante Adams: Despite missing two full games and a large portion of another, Adams sits as the No. 2 wide receiver in PPR formats. Over the last four weeks, he’s scored 126.8 PPR points. No other wide receiver has scored more than 82.4 points. That is absolutely ridiculous. He’s seen at least 10 targets in every full game he’s played. The Colts have been a team to avoid in general, though production to wide receivers has been there at times. Through nine games, they’ve allowed 14 wide receivers to produce top-36 numbers, including four of them to finish as top-16 options. There have been just two wide receivers who’ve seen 10-plus targets against them, and both of them (Allen Robinson and A.J. Green) finished with 17-plus PPR points. Adams will see a lot of Xavier Rhodes, the cornerback he continually destroyed while he was in Minnesota. In two games against Rhodes last year, he finished with 7/106/0 and 13/116/0. To be fair, Rhodes has played much better this year, allowing a ridiculously-low 42.9 percent completion-rate in coverage, but he’s not on Adams’ level. The biggest concern is lack of overall volume in this game for both teams, but given the 51-point total, I could be wrong. Adams should be in lineups as a WR1. *Update* Adams is apparently having issues with his ankle, which seems to have stiffened up after suffering the injury in the second half of last week’s game. He is expected to suit up and play, though he may be at less than 100 percent. You still can’t sit him, regardless.  

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: He’s caught six passes for a ridiculous 202 yards and three touchdowns over the last two weeks, which is going to bring a lot of people here wondering if they should be trusting him. The funny part is that I’ve been saying all along that he’s bound to have a big performance with the way Rodgers had been targeting him down the field, as he’s eighth in the NFL for deep targets (17). Rodgers was playing too well for those targets to go to waste, but don’t get fooled into thinking this is a new player. In fact, he’s about to lose targets with Lazard returning to the lineup. The Colts have not been a team to expect the deep ball to work against this year, as they’ve allowed the fewest 40-plus yard passing plays (2), and the sixth-fewest 20-plus yard passing plays (25). I’m not willing to take the chance on Valdes-Scantling this week as anything more than a boom-or-bust WR5.

Allen Lazard: The Packers have been very slow about bringing Lazard back to the lineup, which could mean that they’re going to take it easy on him in the early going and not have him play a full complement of snaps. Because of that, there’s definitely some risk playing him this week against a Colts team that’s allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this year. Kenny Moore has done a solid job in the slot, allowing just 16-of-23 passing for 164 yards and no touchdowns. Let’s wait a week on Lazard to ensure he’s back in a full-time role. This matchup makes it easier to do that.

T.Y. Hilton: He returned to the lineup in Week 10 and did what he’s been doing all year… disappointing fantasy managers. He hasn’t finished with more than 72 yards or scored a touchdown since way back in Week 7 of last year. That’s a span of 13 games he’s played in, or almost a full NFL season. He has just one top-36 finish during that time (WR34). The Packers have allowed just six wide receivers to post top-36 numbers all year, so it’s not likely he turns things around this week. It doesn’t help that teams have targeted their receivers just 18.9 times per game, which is one of the lowest marks in the league. Considering Hilton has seen just 26.7 percent of the Colts wide receiver targets on the season, this is problematic. He should be considered just a low-upside WR4/5 option.

Zach Pascal: He’s averaged 6.0 targets per game over the last four weeks, which is enough to get a player into the fantasy conversation, though he’s still failed to top 58 yards the entire season, so when you take the risk of playing him, you’re not getting a great ceiling. After starting out the year playing well, Chandon Sullivan has started to slip a bit while covering the slot. Over the last three weeks, he’s allowed 9-of-15 passing for 126 yards and a touchdown in his coverage, but that’s not enough to the point where we saw Pascal is a must-play, especially considering Pittman seems to be emerging as a favorite. The Packers have faced just 18.9 wide receiver targets per game, so it’s tough to confidently recommend anyone to produce a solid floor this week, and as we’ve discussed, Pascal doesn’t have much of a ceiling.

Michael Pittman: We’ve seen the Colts turning to Pittman as the go-to receiver in the offense, as he’s seen a team-high 15 targets over the last two weeks, netting back-to-back career-high performances, including seven receptions for 101 yards against the Titans. He actually played 10 more snaps than both Hilton and Pascal, so it’s not just the targets. The downside is that the Packers could choose to shadow him with Jaire Alexander, though this doesn’t feel like an obvious shadow situation, as teams still respect Hilton. Pittman has been moving all over the formation since his return, including about 40 percent of his snaps in the slot, so he’ll see a mix of all Packers cornerbacks. They’ve allowed just 7.76 yards per target to receivers this year, which ranks as the fifth-lowest mark in the league, so when you combine that with the minimal targets receivers see against them, it’s a problem. They have allowed a touchdown every 18.9 targets, which is the 12th-most often, but with the lack of volume, it’s amounted to just one wide receiver touchdown per game. Pittman is certainly the best bet on the Colts, but still remains in WR4 territory.

TEs
Robert Tonyan: The sample size just keeps getting bigger, as Tonyan reveals who he is, which is a touchdown-dependent streamer who has seen four or less targets in four of the last five games. He is averaging a solid 10.8 yards per target, but when you’re not getting at least five targets per game, you’re going to be difficult to rely on, especially in tough matchups. The Colts are still the only team in the league who’s yet to allow a receiving touchdown to a tight end. They’ve also allowed a league-low 309 yards to them. Against the Colts, tight ends average 7.2 targets, 3.9 receptions, 33.9 yards, and no touchdowns. That’s not to an individual tight end but rather the entire team. It’s not competition, either, as Football Outsiders has them tied as the sixth-toughest matchup for tight ends. The 1.01 PPR points per target is the lowest mark in the NFL, and the Steelers are the only other team who’s allowed fewer than 1.42 points per target. Tonyan is not a recommended streamer this week.

Trey Burton and Mo Alie-Cox: We knew they’d both have a bigger role with Jack Doyle out of the lineup, but I don’t know if anyone expected Alie-Cox to run more routes (24 to 19). They each saw three targets, which is hardly enough to feel confident about them, especially going into a matchup with the Packers, a team who’s seen minimal targets to the tight end position. Tight ends have accounted for a league-low 10.9 percent of the fantasy production allowed by the Packers, which stems from the fact that they’ve had just a 14.1 percent target share, which is the second-lowest number in the league. That’s also led to them allowing just 29 receptions to tight ends this season. That’s just 3.2 receptions per game. Not great when you’re dealing with a timeshare, eh? If we were guaranteed more volume, it wouldn’t be so bad, as the Packers are allowing a 72.3 percent catch-rate to the position and 9.23 yards per target (ranks as third-most), but we can’t, which makes this duo hard to suggest for streamers. In fact, it’s tough to say which I’d choose if forced to pick one. My guess is that Jack Doyle‘s absence is the reason for Alie-Cox’s increased workload, so if Doyle remains out, he’d be my choice.