The Primer: Week 11 Edition (2020 Fantasy Football)

New England Patriots at Houston Texans

Spread: Patriots -2.5
Total: 47
Patriots vs. Texans Betting Matchup

QBs
Cam Newton: If we were to extrapolate Newton’s passing numbers over a full 16-game season, he’d finish with 3,070 passing yards and six touchdowns. I’m speechless. Fortunately, he has nine rushing touchdowns and is on pace to break his own single-season record of 14 rushing touchdowns by a quarterback. The Texans have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per actual pass attempt this year, but the lack of sheer volume they’ve faced, combined with lack of production they’ve allowed on the ground to quarterbacks has them allowing just the 15th-most fantasy points per game. They have allowed just 2.49 yards per carry to quarterbacks this year, which has helped them allow just 14.7 fantasy points on the ground to quarterbacks all season. Is that due to the running backs getting all the production you could want? Teams have chosen to run the ball on 48.0 percent of plays against them, which ranks as the second-highest mark in the league, and plays right into the Patriots’ way, as they’ve run the ball on a league-high 47.7 percent of offensive plays. The Texans did play against Lamar Jackson back in Week 2 and held him to 54 scoreless yards on the ground, so it might not be a week to expect a two-touchdown rushing performance out of Newton, but given the matchup and how it plays into the way their offense is run, he should have enough volume to produce a high-floor, high-end QB2-type performance.

Deshaun Watson: We can’t take too much away from Watson’s performance last week, as there were constant 30-plus MPH winds with 50-60 MPH gusts that limited both offenses. It would’ve been nice to see Watson use his legs a bit more, but it doesn’t appear to be a big part of what he wants to do this year. He’s rushed for more than 38 yards just once this year and hasn’t topped 50 rushing yards since Week 17 of 2018. When you compare what quarterbacks have averaged in non-Patriots games to what they average versus the Patriots, they score 4.3 fewer fantasy points per game, which makes this the toughest matchup in the NFL. How is that when the Patriots have allowed 8.60 yards per attempt, which ranks as the second-highest number in the league? Well, because their opponents have averaged a league-low 57.8 plays per game and thrown the ball just 49.6 percent of the time, which is also a league-low. That’s the only reason teams have not scored points, as the Patriots defense ranks as the second-worst in the NFL according to Fantasy Outsiders’ DVOA metric. Since the start of Week 2, quarterbacks have averaged a ridiculous 8.91 yards per attempt. If the Texans actually have Watson drop back to pass, they’ll have success. Knowing they’re stuck with Duke Johnson at running back, they just might. Watson might be better than you expect this week, though it requires some rational coaching. He should be considered a mid-to-low-end QB1 this week.

RBs
Damien Harris, Rex Burkhead, and James White: What makes Harris’ production on the ground that much more special is the fact that he’s done it while seeing eight-man defensive fronts on a league-high 43.5 percent of his carries. No other running back in the NFL is over 34.0 percent. Teams know it’s coming and they still haven’t been able to stop it. Running backs have averaged 30.8 PPR points per game against the Texans, which ranks as the third-highest number in the league. It certainly helps that they’ve averaged a ridiculous 27.9 carries per game against them. Not touches per game… carries. They’ve faced more carries than 19 teams have seen touches to running backs. When you combine that with the 5.53 yards per carry they’ve allowed (just one other team is above 4.88 yards per carry), you get a massive 22.8 fantasy points per game on the ground alone. That’s more than 15 teams allow to the running back position as a whole… in PPR formats. Think about that. They’ve allowed 204.9 fantasy points on the ground, while there’s been just one other team (Lions) who’s allowed more than 168.8 fantasy points on the ground. All in all, the Texans have faced a league-high 31.9 running back touches per game. They’ve now allowed 1,715 total yards to running backs, which is 95 more than any other team. Harris has earned the right to be started as a solid RB2, though his lack of passing game usage makes him gamescript dependent and presents volatility. You have to wonder if White is dealing with an injury, as he’s been completely eliminated from the offense, totaling just 13 touches over the last four games combined. He cannot be trusted as anything more than an emergency RB4 who has a great matchup. As for Burkhead, he’s now received 41 opportunities over the last four weeks, which are enough to get you into the flex conversation, so when you add in a matchup with one of the league’s worst defenses at slowing down running backs, he’s worth considering as an RB3/flex.

Duke Johnson: Once we learned that David Johnson had to go to injured reserve, we knew we were getting a big workload for Duke Johnson. Unfortunately, the Texans didn’t find it necessary to target him in the passing game despite the high-wind conditions. You’d think they’d lower the average depth of target but no. Still, over the last two games with Johnson in the workhorse role, he’s totaled 30 carries and five targets, which is more than enough to give you confidence to start him. Just like against the pass, the Patriots have been a below average defense against running backs, allowing 4.60 yards per carry (8th-most), 6.72 yards per target (5th-most), and a touchdown every 31.0 touches. This all comes back to the issue of total plays for their opponents, as they’ve averaged just 57.8 plays per game, so even though teams have chosen to run the ball a league-high 50.4 percent of the time, it’s netted just 27.6 running back touches per game. All in all, the Patriots have faced the fifth-least amount of weighted volume to running backs. That’s a problem, but the good news is that Johnson might see 90 percent of the volume, which is enough to move him into the sturdy high-floor RB2 range.

WRs
Jakobi Meyers: The Patriots wide receviers saw just seven targets last week. Go ahead, ask me how many of them Meyers got. All of them. Over the last four weeks, he’s seen 37 targets, which account for a ridiculous 40.2 percent of Newton’s pass attempts. If a receiver gets over 25 percent, it’s elite. The Texans have only faced 19.1 wide receiver targets per game, but when they do see them, they produce. The 2.03 PPR points per target they’ve allowed ranks as the fourth-highest mark in the league, so Meyers’ high target share should benefit greatly from that. The only issue with guaranteeing production is that Meyers is the clear-cut No. 1 receiver on their team right now and that likely means he’ll see Bradley Roby, who’s done a great job in coverage, allowing just 20-of-30 passing for 190 yards, though three of the receptions were for touchdowns. With Newton throwing just three touchdowns on the season, we have an issue with touchdowns bailing us out if Meyers doesn’t rack up yardage, and that’s why he remains in WR3 territory instead of moving higher.

Will Fuller: The high-wind game last week ended Fuller’s six-game touchdown streak that he had going. Considering the conditions, his managers are probably lucky he totaled eight targets in that game, even if they did only amount to five catches for 38 yards. Why don’t teams target their wide receivers more against the Patriots? If they did, they might have more success, as the Patriots have allowed a massive 2.11 PPR points per target to them, which ranks as the second-highest mark in the league behind only the Vikings. Stephon Gilmore hasn’t played over the last few weeks with an injury, but even when on the field, he’s allowed 15-of-24 passing for 209 yards and two touchdowns, which is far from shutdown. Despite no receiver seeing double-digit targets against the Patriots, they’ve allowed eight top-24 wide receiver performances. You’re more worried about the Patriots’ reputation than you are the actual matchup, so go ahead and get Fuller back in lineups as a mid-to-low-end WR2.

Brandin Cooks: Despite the crazy-high winds last week, Cooks still saw eight targets. That makes it five straight games he’s seen eight-plus targets, which is volume that’s typically reserved for top-12 fantasy receivers. He’s just one of 10 wide receivers who’ve seen 8-plus targets in at least 66.7 percent of his games. That’s good because his former team has allowed a massive 9.73 yards per target to wide receivers this year, which ranks second to only the Jaguars. The 14.74 yards per reception ranks second to only the Falcons, and that was on full display against the Jets just a few weeks ago when Breshad Perriman crushed them for 101 yards and two touchdowns. Both Cooks and Fuller have each been targeted 20-plus yards down the field 12 times, so it’s not like Cooks doesn’t have the field-stretching potential Fuller does. Any time you have a wide receiver with an eight-target floor over the last five games, you kind of have to play him. Cooks belongs in the middling WR3 conversation where the only risk is lack of plays out of the Texans offense.

Randall Cobb: He’s now seen in-between 3-6 targets in 8-of-9 games this year, which isn’t great considering he doesn’t have that one-play upside you want out of low volume wide receivers. It’s also why he has finished with 47 yards or less in 6-of-9 games. That’s a problem when going against a team who’s seen just 16.7 wide receiver targets per game (second-fewest in the NFL). Because of that, the Patriots have allowed just 11.0 receptions per game to them. When you’re the third-best option among wide receviers, it’s going to be tough to trust Cobb. With that being said, Jonathan Jones, the Patriots slot cornerback, has allowed 25/296/2 on 39 targets, which is good for a 93.5 QB Rating in coverage. Cobb should be placed in the WR5 conversation as someone who is just too far down on the pecking order in what’s expected to be a low-volume matchup.

TEs
Ryan Izzo: He’s seen 16 targets through nine games, and Cam Newton has thrown three touchdowns. You’re not considering Izzo.

Jordan Akins: We’re now headed into Week 11 of the 2020 season, and we still have just two games where a Texans tight end has seen more than four targets. The outcome of those games? Darren Fells finished with 6/85/1 in Week 6 and Akins finished with 7/55/0 in Week 2. It blows my mind they don’t utilize their tight ends more, as they’ve been efficient over the last two years. This isn’t a week to start, though. The Patriots allow tight ends just 12.2 percent of the production to skill-position players, which ranks as the third-lowest mark in football. According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric that factors in level of competition, the Patriots are the second-toughest matchup in the league for tight ends. Akins is not a recommended streamer this week.

Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns

Spread: Browns -3
Total: 48
Eagles vs. Browns Betting Matchup

QBs
Carson Wentz: I thought it was possible Wentz’s bye week came at the right time. The pass-catchers were getting healthy, you know what to expect out of the offensive line, so go ahead and hit the reset button and refresh your season. That didn’t happen. He completed just 56.8 percent of his passes, which makes it 6-of-9 games where he’s failed to complete more than 58.1 percent of his passes. In today’s NFL, this is pitiful. Rushing production and pure passing volume have saved him from a truly bad season, but he didn’t have either of them going his way during their Week 10 loss to the Giants. Now going into a matchup with the Browns, who are ranked as the 13th-best matchup for pass attacks in Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings. We haven’t seen much to suggest that over their last two games but knowing there were 50-plus MPH winds in both games, it makes sense. The last game they played with normal conditions was against the Bengals in Week 7 when Joe Burrow threw for 406 yards and three touchdowns. The Browns have allowed four different quarterbacks accumulate 34-plus rushing yards, which is something that’ll provide Wentz with a better floor than he had last week. I’ll be honest, it’s extremely hard to project Wentz, who has finished with 21.4-plus points in four games this year but has also finished with 13 points or less in four games. We should expect plenty of passing considering the Eagles throw the ball 63.7 percent of the time (3rd-most) while Browns opponents throw the ball 60.4 percent of the time (10th-most). All in all, the Browns rank as the sixth-best matchup in adjusted opponent rank, so Wentz should at least be considered as a high-end QB2, but you must understand the volatility in his performances. It does help that we found out Friday that Myles Garrett will be OUT for the Browns, and he’s essentially the only pass-rusher who’s gotten pressure this season.

Baker Mayfield: He’s only played two games without Odell Beckham this year, and both of those games have featured 30-plus MPH winds with 50-plus MPH wind gusts. Because of that, Mayfield has thrown just 45 passes that have netted 254 yards and no touchdowns. With Nick Chubb back, this team wants to run the ball more than half the time, which is also a detriment to Mayfield’s floor and ceiling. The Eagles defense has been better than most realize, allowing just 6.96 yards per attempt on the season, which is likely due to the pressure they’re creating up front, generating a sack on 9.2 percent of dropbacks, which ranks as the third-highest mark in the league. Because of that, teams have thrown the ball just 55.0 percent of the time against them, which ranks as the eighth-fewest in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Browns throw the ball just 48.9 percent of the time, the third-lowest mark in the league. This is not a recipe for success. The only quarterback who’s thrown for more than 267 yards against the Eagles was Joe Burrow, and he threw the ball 44 times in that game, a mark Mayfield won’t get close to. Mayfield is not a recommended streamer this week.

RBs
Miles Sanders and Boston Scott: It was frustrating to watch both Scott and Corey Clement score touchdowns last week, but you have to look at the positives for Sanders. One, he looked fantastic and 100 percent healthy. Two, he totaled 20 of the 25 opportunities available to Eagles running backs. Don’t let a few one-off plays deter you from a running back who’s totaled at least 80 yards on the ground in 5-of-6 games. He’s the clear-cut workhorse here on a team that’s struggling to throw the ball. He’s also seen eight-man defensive fronts on a league-low 3.49 percent of carries, which should allow for continued success. Still, based on yards before contact and defensive fronts, Sanders has averaged 1.01 more yards per carry than he was expected to, according to NFL’s NextGenStats. That ranks as the seventh-best number in the league. Against the Browns, wide receivers are outscoring running backs by a massive 21.6 PPR points per game, which is the third-largest gap in the game. It doesn’t help that running backs have seen just a 14.7 percent target share. They’re one of just four teams who’ve held running backs below a 15 percent target share. On the ground, the only running backs who’ve totaled more than 57 yards were Josh Jacobs and James Conner, who both hit the 20-carry mark. Sanders has gotten to the 20-carry mark just twice in his career, though he’s never exceeded it. The downside here is that the Browns have faced the second-least amount of weighted volume against running backs. The Steelers and Falcons are the only two teams who’ve faced fewer than the 223 touches the Browns have. Sanders should be started as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2, though the matchup favors the passing game more than the run game. Due to lack of volume, particularly through the air, Scott should not be considered as a streaming option. *Update* The Eagles signed Jordan Howard this week and it led to Doug Pederson saying they’re going to go with a “committee approach” at running back. This is gross. In the nine games they were both active last year, Howard totaled 119 carries and 14 targets (14.8 opportunities per game) while Sanders received 76 carries and 27 targets (11.4 opportunities per game). While I don’t think that’ll be the split between these two, they clearly wanted Howard back to have a role. This knocks Sanders down into the RB2 range. Howard isn’t someone I’d want to start outside of an emergency RB4, but he might be the favorite to get goal-line carries. 

Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt: The duo was back in full force last week, combining for a massive 41 touches. We figured the Browns might ease Chubb back into action, so it wasn’t too shocking to see both him and Hunt finish with 19 carries. Chubb looked as good as ever, ripping off 126 yards and a touchdown against the Texans soft run defense. It should’ve been 128 yards and two touchdowns, but Chubb did the smart thing and ran out of bounds, which ended the game and ensured the Texans couldn’t get the ball back on offense. Based on the 31.6 percent of eight-man defensive fronts and yards before contact, Chubb has had an expected rate of 3.99 yards per carry according to NFL’s NextGenStats. Because he’s so darn good, he’s averaged 6.07 yards per carry. That 2.08 yards per carry difference is the biggest gap in football. Hunt is averaging 0.65 more yards per carry than expected, but yeah, he’s the second best running back on this team. This week’s test will be much tougher against an Eagles run defense that’s allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. No running back has been able to eclipse 81 yards on the ground against them this season, and in fact, the only running back who’s totaled 100-plus yards on the ground against them since the start of last year was Gus Edwards in a meaningless Week 17 game last year. The struggles aren’t due to a lack of trying, as the Eagles have faced 23.4 carries per game. There has been just one team of running backs who’ve totaled more than 103 rushing yards against them this year, and that was the Rams backfield who rushed for 141 yards on 26 carries in Week 2. It’s highly unlikely we see two running backs come out of this backfield with top-20 performances. Chubb is fresh and looked great, so he should remain in lineups as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 despite the tough matchup. As for Hunt, he’s more of a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 this week who will need to get it done through the air, though there have been just two running backs who’ve caught more than three passes against the Eagles.

WRs
Travis Fulgham: Wentz’s poor quarterback play finally caught up with Fulgham, as he was only able to bring in 1-of-5 targets for a measly eight yards. It was the first time Fulgham had finished with fewer than five catches or 73 yards in five games as a starter, so we can’t sway too far in the other direction, but rather accept that there may be some volatility in his weekly finishes due to poor quarterback play. Some have said that the return of Alshon Jeffery was the reason for Fulgham’s struggles, but that wasn’t it; he played 59-of-67 snaps. Don’t worry too much about the Texans wide receivers not producing against the Browns last week, because before that game they’d allowed 6.4 more fantasy points per game to wide receivers than their opponents average in non-Browns games. That’s the second-biggest gap in the league, so this is not a matchup that’s a must-avoid for Fulgham. A lot of the production has come from touchdowns, though, as the 7.87 yards per target they’ve allowed to receivers ranks as the 10th-lowest mark in the league. Fulgham should be considered a low-end WR3 who comes with some instability, but his role appears to be safe.

Jalen Reagor: In two games back from his injury, Reagor has seen a team-high 13 targets. While they haven’t led to much production, following those type of targets in fantasy is usually the smart move, especially when it’s a player like Reagor who has one-play upside. Despite the Browns being stuck in two high-wind games the last few weeks, they’re allowing wide receivers 21.6 more PPR points than they do running backs, which is the third-largest gap in the league. A lot of the production they’ve allowed has gone to slot-heavy receivers, which is where Reagor lined up 40 percent of the time in Week 10, which offers some hope to his projection. The downside is that the Browns have allowed just 25 pass plays of 20-plus yards this year, which ranks as the sixth-fewest in the league, so expecting that one-play upside may not happen. Still, we’re expecting a lot of pass attempts out of Wentz, so Reagor should at the very least be able to be played as a decent WR4-type option with his targets the last two weeks.

Jarvis Landry: Through two games without Beckham, the Browns target share has been: Landry 16, Higgins 7, Donovan Peoples-Jones 2, KhaDarel Hodge 1. The wind was brutal in both of the games, which likely did benefit Landry who averages just 9.7 air yards per target, so we can’t expect his target share to be that high. The Eagles have been much better against wide receivers than most realize. If we were to remove the 162 yards and three touchdowns they’ve allowed on the ground to receivers, they would rank as the eighth-worst matchup for wide receivers. If there’s one thing Landry has going for him, it’s that they’ve not quite figured out how to stop slot receivers. Between Nickell Robey-Coleman and Cre’Von LeBlanc, they’ve combined to allow 35-of-43 passing for 406 yards and two touchdowns in the slot. That’s worth a 120-plus QB Rating. There have been seven wide receivers who’ve seen more than six targets against them, and each of them were able to finish as top-36 receivers. Landry should be considered a relatively safe high-floor WR3/4 option.

Rashard Higgins: Outside of his one explosion game when Odell Beckham got hurt, Higgins hasn’t reached 50 receiving yards in any game. The lack of volume in the offense surely hasn’t helped, as the team has thrown the ball just 45 times over their last two games while in windy conditions. The sliver of hope is that Higgins did lead the team with 48 yards last week, though that’s hardly enough to start in fantasy. The Eagles have been much better against wide receivers than they were last year, allowing just eight of them to finish as top-36 options. Every one of them saw at least six targets, which is a number Higgins hit just once. On a per-target basis, the Eagles have allowed the sixth-fewest PPR points per target (1.66) to receivers. When playing for a team that averages 28.1 pass attempts per game, it’s tough for the No. 2 option to be trusted as anything more than a WR5.

TEs
Dallas Goedert: He was hurt early in the game, which led to him missing some time to get checked for a concussion. It allowed his teammate Richard Rodgers step in to produce a bit. The two of them combined for 11 targets, eight receptions, and 93 yards last week, so the thought process behind playing Goedert was correct but the results were less than ideal. The Browns have allowed just 8.98 yards per reception to tight ends, which is the second-lowest number in the league, but have still managed to allow the 10th-most fantasy points per game to them. Volume has been a constant against them, as there have been eight tight ends who’ve seen six-plus targets against them. The lack of linebacker and safety health/talent on the roster is likely the reason for that. Whatever the case, eight tight ends have also racked up four-plus receptions in this matchup, which gives Goedert a floor that tight end owners can only dream of in 2020. Did you know that Goedert’s four catches for 33 yards last week ranked 15th among tight ends? Seriously, it’s bad. Knowing the targets and receptions will be there again this week, keep Goedert in lineups as a TE1.

Austin Hooper: His return to the lineup didn’t bring on the results fantasy managers were hoping for, as he saw just two targets in the windy game. It was a lack of involvement from the tight ends all together, as Hooper was the only Browns tight end who was targeted. Considering the team averaged 8.8 targets per game to the tight ends coming in, we should call this a blip on the radar. Prior to his appendectomy, Hooper had seen 23 targets in his last three games. Will we see a bounce-back performance against the Eagles? They’ve been an above-average defense this year, but if there’s one position they’ve struggled with, it’s tight ends, as they’ve accounted for 21.3 percent of the fantasy points the Eagles have allowed to skill-position players (tied for sixth-most). There have been six tight ends who’ve finished top-12 against them, including George Kittle and Tyler Higbee finishing with 28-plus PPR points. Seven different tight ends have finished with at least 43 yards and/or a touchdown against them. Knowing the Browns run game should struggle a bit more than usual, they should go back to utilizing Hooper. Considering he did play 55-of-65 snaps last week, you should feel semi-confident playing him as a low-end TE1.

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Panthers -1.5
Total: 49
Lions vs. Panthers Betting Matchup

QBs
Matthew Stafford: He’s doing this thing where he plays well against good defenses but plays terribly when he should crush. Seriously, his two best games this year have come against Washington and the Colts, while he didn’t even finish with 10 fantasy points against the Vikings. When you factor in the opponents the Panthers have played, they look even better. They’re allowing 0.04 fewer points per play to quarterbacks when compared to their opponent’s season-long averages. That may not seem like much, but when you factor in the many plays in a game where the quarterback touches the ball, they’re allowing 2.4 fewer points per game than their opponents have averaged, which ranks as the sixth-largest gap in the league. However, their true colors have started to show themselves, as the lack of pressure has proven to be an issue. They’ve generated a sack on a league-low 2.87 percent of opponent dropbacks. Over the last two weeks, Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes combined for 713 yards and seven touchdowns against them. Sure, those are two great quarterbacks, but it all comes down to lack of pressure. Stafford has a mediocre 97.6 QB Rating in a clean pocket but a 90.8 QB Rating under pressure. It’s not like that with Mahomes and Brady. This could be why he does better in tougher matchups, as blitzing may not impact him much. Because of this, Stafford remains in the high-end QB2 territory rather than must-stream material.

Teddy Bridgewater or P.J. Walker: We don’t have much information on Bridgewater at this time, but after suffering some sort of knee injury (to the one he had major reconstruction surgery on), we have to prepare for life without him. Walker is a former XFL star who threw for a league leading 1,338 yards and 15 passing touchdowns in the 2019-20 season. He was also the quarterback who played under Matt Rhule at Temple from 2013-2016. Stay tuned here later in the week, as I’ll update the bottom of the notes to let you know who’s playing. The Lions defense as a whole has allowed 1.59 fantasy points per offensive play this year, which ranks as the second-most to only the Falcons. A lot of production has come on the ground, though quarterbacks have found a great floor against them, as not one single quarterback has finished with fewer than 15.5 fantasy points against them. The ceiling has been somewhat mediocre, though, as no quarterback has topped 24.3 fantasy points. Everything the Lions have done on defense is mediocre, allowing a 65.6 percent completion-rate (17th-highest), 7.66 yards per attempt (7th-highest), a 5.3 percent touchdown-rate (13th-highest), and just a 3.89 percent sack-rate (8th-worst). This is all eerily similar to what they allowed last year when they allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, so it’s the scheme. If Bridgewater can somehow practice in full by the end of the week, he’ll be a fine middling QB2 who should come with a decent floor, though there’s always the risk of re-injury. If Bridgewater misses this game, Walker is perfectly fine to play in 2QB leagues. *Update* We’re hearing reports all over the place about Bridgewater, though most suggest he won’t play. We’re also hearing mixed reports on if his replacement would be Walker or Will Grier, though it seems silly to go to Grier. 

RBs
D’Andre Swift and Adrian Peterson: We got word about 45 minutes before kickoff that the Lions were planning to give Swift the first “start” of his career. While he’s been receiving the most opportunity, this proved to be massive as he received 21 of the 27 available touches to Lions running backs. In fact, you’d call this a workhorse workload, and knowing he racked up 149 total yards and a touchdown on them, he’s likely to be an every-week start moving forward. This is wonderful because the Panthers have faced the most weighted opportunity by the running back position this year. On average, running backs touch the ball 28.9 times per game against them, with a lot of that coming through the air. The Panthers have allowed a league-high 66 receptions to running backs, so the fact that Swift is involved in the passing game is huge for his floor. There have been eight running backs who’ve seen more than 13 touches against the Panthers. The results are… amazing.

If the Lions don’t mess with what worked for them last week, Swift is in for a big day. Considering his fresh legs after being underused the first half of the season, he should be in play as a solid RB1 this week. *Update* Swift has been ruled OUT for this week’s game due to a concussion. Peterson moves into RB3 territory, while Kerryon Johnson can be considered a high-end RB4. 

Christian McCaffrey and Mike Davis: We heard last week that McCaffrey had “a chance to play” in Week 11, but that’s quickly went south as the latest reports are saying that he’s likely going to be held out through their bye in Week 13. We knew the Week 10 matchup against the Bucs was going to be tough, and Davis was forced to leave with an injury to his finger, which certainly didn’t help his ability to catch passes, which is where he needed to make value. In games that McCaffrey has missed, Davis has totaled 130 of the 163 available opportunities to Panthers running backs (80 percent), so when you see the Lions opponents have averaged 31.7 touches, you should be getting excited. If you take a look at the Lions competition this year and look at their points-per-game averages, you’d learn that the Lions are allowing 9.3 more fantasy points per game to those running backs than they typically average. That’s the most in the NFL, as no other team is over 7.0 points per game.  Of the 84.5 PPR points the Lions allow to skill-position players, 42.5 percent of them go to the running back position, which is the second-highest percentage in the league. In fact, the Packers and the Lions are the only two teams who’ve allowed more than 38 percent of that production go to running backs. Wide receivers facing the Lions are outscoring running backs by just 1.2 PPR points per game, which is the lowest mark in the league, while the Packers are the only other team with a number less than 6.1 points per game. When you add all of this together, you get a matchup that’s produced a league-leading 35.9 PPR points per game. That’s a full 4.3 PPR points per game than the closest team (Packers). They’ve allowed more rushing (13) and receiving (5) touchdowns to running backs than any team in the league. The best part is that they’ve allowed more fantasy points per game through the air (14.1) to running backs than any other team in the league, which is where Davis has really shined. Whew, that was a lot of ways to say, “start Mike Davis this week as an RB1.”

WRs
Kenny Golladay: We have zero clue about Golladay’s availability but considering he didn’t practice at all last week, we can’t assume anything. If we get any indications that he’ll play this week, I’ll come back and update. *Update* He’s been ruled OUT.

Marvin Jones: So, in his toughest matchup of the season, against the league’s No. 1 defense against fantasy wide receivers, Jones racks up eight catches for 96 yards and a touchdown. Makes sense. He’s scored four touchdowns in his last three games and has accumulated at least 13.0 PPR points in each of the last four games, which is almost always enough to get a receiver into the top-36 for the week. With Golladay looking iffy again this week and Danny Amendola injuring his hip last week, the Lions are short on pass-catchers. It also doesn’t hurt that Jones played nearly half of his snaps in the slot in Amendola’s absence. This should lead to a big target share for Jones, which is important against the Panthers. There have been six wide receviers who’ve seen double-digit targets against them this year, and each one of those receivers finished with 19.7 or more PPR points. In fact, any receiver who’s seen more than five targets has finished as the WR42 or better. The issue has been volume for receivers, as they’ve seen just 20.2 targets per game against the Panthers. On a per-target basis, they’ve been pretty average against them, allowing 8.07 yards per target and a touchdown every 22.4 targets. With the targets so concentrated to Jones, he should be played as a solid WR3 with top-15 upside this week if Golladay sits (he has been ruled OUT).

Robby Anderson: After totaling 99-plus yards in four of his first five games with the Panthers, Anderson has failed to top 77 yards in each of his last five games. Granted, that’s a high benchmark, but his 21 yards in Week 10 was a season-low, and it comes after he set a previous season-low of 48 yards against the Falcons in Week 8. He’s still a top-24 receiver for the remainder of the season, but it’s clear there’s some volatility involved with him. The Lions went from a team that was allowing a lot of wide receiver production, to one where teams are stomping them in the run-game. Just 43.9 percent of production they’ve allowed to skill-position players has gone to wide receivers, which is the third-lowest number in the NFL. It’s not like it’s a must-avoid matchup, though, as 12 wide receivers have produced top-36 performances against them, including three inside the top-12. Anderson doesn’t play in one spot, as he’s pretty much played one-third at each of LWR, RWR, and the slot. Rushing touchdowns have crushed receivers’ upside against the Lions because the 8.77 yards per target they allow ranks as the ninth-most in the league, while the seven touchdowns ranks as the fourth-fewest. Anderson hasn’t scored since Week 1, so we know not to rely on touchdowns from him by now. Still, despite the lack of touchdowns, Anderson ranks as the No. 12 wide receiver in PPR formats, so keep him out there as a WR2.

D.J. Moore: His top two games this year? Both against the Bucs. He totaled eight catches for 120 yards in Week 2 and then 96 yards and a touchdown in Week 10. He has totaled 93-plus yards in five different games, so it’s not like he’s been a complete bust. He’s also seen a team-high 39.1 percent of the air yards, so his targets have had much more value than most. Him and Anderson have combined to account for a ridiculous 77.9 percent of the Panthers air yards. I told both Dan Harris and Kyle Yates on the podcast this stat and they found it hard to believe: Moore is on pace for 1,178 yards and six touchdowns, which would top his 2019 stats of 1,175 yards and four touchdowns. Crazy, eh? The Lions have allowed 12.98 yards per receptions, which is essentially the league average. They have allowed 34 pass plays of 20-plus yards, which ranks as the fifth-most. This plays well into Moore’s role, as he leads the team in deep receptions (8) and yards (310). His primary matchup will be with Amani Oruwariye, who’s allowed 15.5 yards per catch in his coverage, but has still yet to allow a touchdown. Moore is a bit more volatile than Anderson, which makes him more of a mid-to-high-end WR3 where you’re taking a bit more risk for the upside.

Curtis Samuel: Just when you feel like you can trust Samuel, he goes and finishes with 12 total yards. It’s a bump in what’s been a strong stretch for him, though we talked about this last week; he’s finished with 51 or less receiving yards in all but one of his games, so he’s extremely reliant on touchdowns or rushing production, which were hard to come by against the Bucs. The Lions, on the other hand, they’ve allowed 34.0 points per game over their last three contests, and they’ve allowed more rushing production than all but three teams. The Lions have also welcomed Justin Coleman back into the slot, which has been a disaster, as he’s allowed 86-of-131 passing for 985 yards and eight touchdowns in a Lions uniform, which is good for a 100-plus QB Rating. Samuel was a disappointment last week, but he’s right back in that high-end WR4 conversation this week.

TEs
T.J. Hockenson: We saw Hockenson pop up on the injury report mid-week, which was never a good sign. Was his toe injury bothering him to the point where it affected his efficiency? He was playing against what might be the league’s worst defense against tight ends but finished with just two catches for 13 yards on four targets. We’ll have to pay attention to the practice reports this week. The matchup with the Panthers is hardly one to get too excited about, as they rank as the 12th-toughest matchup for tight ends according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. There’s been just one tight end who’s topped 54 yards against them this season, and that was Travis Kelce, who saw 12 targets. Still, it’s not all bad, as nine different tight ends have totaled at least 31 yards against them, which may not seem like much, but it’s a decent floor. The Panthers have seen 78 tight end targets on the season, which ranks as the second-most in the NFL. With many of the pass-catchers dinged up, we should see Hockenson rack up some targets. Because of that, he should remain in lineups as a high-floor mid-to-low-end TE1 option.

Ian Thomas: Yawn. Another one-target week. I’m going to save some words for another player you might be considering.

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Ravens -6.5
Total: 49
Titans vs. Ravens Betting Matchup

QBs
Ryan Tannehill: We’re starting to see a trend develop with Tannehill and it’s not a good one. His starting left tackle Taylor Lewan was hurt in Week 5 and announced as out for the season. Since that time (span of four games), Tannehill has not thrown for more than 233 yards or thrown for more than two touchdowns. To be fair, he’s played against the Steelers, Bears, and Colts during that stretch, but he’s lost his fantasy floor/ceiling he used to have. This week’s matchup won’t make life any easier. The Ravens are one of just six teams in the league who’ve allowed 1.30 or less fantasy points per offensive play to their opponents. The others are the Rams, Bears, Colts, Chiefs, and Steelers. Three of those teams have already been mentioned as recent matchups for Tannehill where he struggled. They’ve allowed a minuscule 6.42 yards per attempt on the season (2nd-lowest) but are dealing with some injuries on defense that could make life a bit easier. They were already without interior lineman Calais Campbell, but they may also be without their other Pro bowl interior lineman Brandon Williams, who suffered an ankle injury last week. That likely benefits Derrick Henry more than Tannehill but it surely can’t hurt. But given the fact that just one quarterback (Patrick Mahomes) has averaged more than 7.6 yards per attempt against them this year, combined with the lack of volume for Tannehill (30 attempts or less in each of the last four games), you’re missing the floor you seek with a streamer. Tannehill is just a middling QB2 this week.

Lamar Jackson: After complaining that everyone knew the plays that were coming, the Ravens seemed to change things up a bit in Week 10, having Jackson throw the ball 34 times. It was just the second time all year he’d thrown the ball more than 28 times. He’s completed 75.4 percent of passes over the last two weeks, so maybe we’ll start to see shades of his 2019 self? He’s also rushed for at least 53 yards in seven of his last eight games, so the rushing floor is there. When the season began, I don’t think anyone expected the Titans to be one of the most appealing matchups for opposing offenses, but here we are. The Titans have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to their opponents this year, behind only the Seahawks and Falcons, two matchups we continually attack. Part of the reason teams are dropping back to pass so often against the Titans is due to their lack of pressure up front. They are one of just three teams who’ve failed to generate a sack on at least 3.0 percent of opponent’s dropbacks. Jackson should have plenty of time to scan the field in this game. Not just that, but the Titans have allowed their opponents 68.7 plays per game and have watched them drop back to pass on 61.0 percent of offensive plays. This has amounted to a massive 40.6 pass attempts per game. No quarterback has thrown for fewer than 249 yards against them since Week 1, while four quarterbacks have thrown for 300-plus yards. We know the points are going to be there on the ground for Jackson, so knowing the Titans allow the third-most fantasy points through the air alone should make you excited to put him in lineups as a rock-solid QB1.

RBs
Derrick Henry: Just like Tannehill, we have a trend with Henry. He played 71-plus percent of the snaps in each of the first three games but has watched that number fall as the year goes on. Over the last three weeks, he’s played just 56.8 percent of the snaps. How is this affecting fantasy? Well, he saw 17 targets in their first six games but has seen just three targets over the last three. If he doesn’t score, he’s not getting into RB1 territory. While the Colts were a tough matchup, this week doesn’t get much better. Based on Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric which accounts for the level of competition they’ve played, the Ravens are the league’s third-toughest run defense. In fact, they’re one of just three teams who are ranked higher than the Colts. With that being said, they’re going to be shorthanded this week, as they’re missing their top two interior lineman, Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams. While Campbell is a new player on the Ravens this year, Williams has been a major cog up the middle of the field for years. On the 552 snaps with him on the field last year, the Ravens allowed 4.12 yards per carry. On the 474 snaps without him, they allowed 5.31 yards per carry. The last time Henry played the Ravens (in the playoffs last year), he crushed them for 195 yards on 30 carries. After reading this, you should have a bit more hope playing Henry as your RB1 this week.

Mark Ingram, J.K. Dobbins, and Gus Edwards: This backfield is a complete mess. Here are the touches each running back has received when they’re all active:

If you were to add them all up, you’d see Ingram 60, Edwards 56, and Dobbins 42. That’s over a span of seven games, so not a single one of them has averaged nine touches per game. Opponents have chosen to run the ball against the Titans on just 39.0 percent of their plays, which ranks as the seventh-lowest percentage in the league. Because of that, running backs have combined for 26.8 touches per game. That’s slightly better than the 22.6 these running backs are averaging in games they’re all active, though almost all of them are carries. The Titans have allowed 4.41 yards per carry and eight rushing touchdowns, which are both around the league average. There have been seven running backs who’ve finished top-20 against the Titans, but they all have one thing in common: they all received at least 12 carries, which is something only Gus Edwards can say he’s done with all three of them on the field, though the game he did was where Ingram had to leave early. None of these running backs can be recommended starts, including Dobbins who hasn’t totaled more than seven touches when all three running backs play the whole game. He offers the most one-play upside, which is why he’s the best play, but he’s nothing more than a risky RB4. Ingram and Edwards are both low-floor, low-ceiling RB4/5 options.

WRs
A.J. Brown: After catching a 21-yard pass on the second play of the game, Brown didn’t have another catch for the remainder of the contest against the Colts. It’s a game of inches, they say. He dropped what would’ve been a 72-yard touchdown in the first quarter of that game, which would have completely changed his day. It was his first game with fewer than seven targets, so we can’t overreact, but his matchup in Week 11 isn’t going to be easy one to get back on track. The Ravens have allowed a wide receiver touchdown once every 43.8 targets, which ranks as the best in the league. The Titans must find a way to get the ball into Brown’s hands, because once that happens, he’s electric, averaging 6.8 yards after the catch. That’s how he overcame a tough matchup against the Bears, so maybe he can do it again. With Jimmy Smith dinged up, the Ravens turned to Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters on the perimeter, while moving to veteran Tramon Williams in the slot. That worked out pretty well, as the Patriots receivers accounted for just five catches and 59 yards. This is far from a great matchup and Brown proved that in the playoffs last year, catching just 1-of-3 targets for nine yards against them. He’s too talented to bench, but temper expectations into WR2 territory against a team who’s allowed just two wide receivers to finish with more than 81 yards this year.

Corey Davis: He played with a heavy heart in Week 10, as he’d lost his brother to cancer the day before the game. My condolences go out to the Davis family. He led the team with five catches for 67 yards, making it 6-of-7 games where he’s finished with at least 11.7 PPR points. The only game he didn’t was against the Bears, who have been one of the best in the league at slowing down the position. Right behind them, though, are the Ravens. In fact, both the Bears and the Ravens have allowed just 1.52 PPR points per target to wide receivers, which is tied for the lowest mark in the league. They have allowed a respectable 64.6 percent catch-rate to receivers, but they haven’t gone very far, as the 11.39 yards per receptions indicates (third-lowest in NFL). Davis is going to see a lot of Marcus Peters in coverage, who is pretty consistent on the underneath routes that Davis typically runs. If there’s an area of weakness to Peters’ game, it’s down the field, but Davis has been targeted deep (20-plus yards) just four times all season. He’s not a recommended start this week, as he falls into low-end WR4 territory.

Marquise Brown: We’ve talked about it the last few weeks, so no need to beat a dead horse, but Brown just hasn’t been efficient with his opportunity. His 41.5 percent share of the Ravens air yards ranks third in the NFL, so it’s not like we can expect more volume. We must hope that efficiency picks up. It does help to know that Jackson has completed 75 percent of his passes over the last two weeks. Wide receivers have seen a massive 63.8 percent target share against the Titans, which ranks second to only the Seahawks. The Titans have allowed a massive 70.0 percent completion-rate to wide receviers, but receptions have gone for an average of just 11.20 yards, which is the lowest mark in the league. So, receivers pile up receptions against the Titans, which is evidenced by the 18.1 receptions per game they allow to them. Brown has seen six-plus targets in 7-of-9 games, so I’ll point out that no wide receiver who’s been targeted more than five times has finished with fewer than 8.8 PPR points against them (10-of-17 finished with 15-plus points), which may not sound like much, but it’s more than Brown has scored in each of the last three games. He’s fallen out of WR3 territory, but it’s hard to say he’s not a better start than most in the WR4 group, meaning he’s in the WR4 portion of that group in a game the Ravens should throw more than they typically would.

TEs
Jonnu Smith: Would you believe me if I told you that Week 10 was the first since Week 5 where Smith saw more than four targets? It’s no coincidence that he hasn’t caught more than two balls since Week 5, either. It seems that his increased usage earlier in the season was due to A.J. Brown being out of the lineup, as his return has buried Smith down the pecking order. He hasn’t topped 40 yards since way back in Week 3, which puts him back in the touchdown-or-bust territory with many other tight ends. The Ravens have allowed just four touchdowns to tight ends on the season, but if there’s one position the Ravens are average against, it’s tight ends. They’ve allowed a 67.2 percent catch-rate (14th), 7.33 yards per target (14th), a touchdown every 16.0 targets (15th), and 1.78 PPR points per target (16th). See what I mean about average? Smith falls into the high-end TE2 range as someone who’s flashed at times but is no longer a must-start.

Mark Andrews: “Oh man, Andrews has been so bad this year, I have no idea what to do with him.” *Checks season-long leaders, sees Andrews as the TE5* Proceeds to bang head against desk. It’s been a mess at tight end, which has kept him in lineups, and last week may have been a glimpse into things getting back on track. You may not think it’s a big deal, but Andrews finishing with seven catches for 61 yards against the league’s No. 2 defense against tight ends is huge, especially before a matchup with the Titans who’ve allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. On average, the Titans allow 18.6 percent more fantasy points than their opponents have averaged in non-Titans games, which tells you about the strength of their schedule. Teams have found that targeting tight ends in the red zone against them makes sense, as they’ve seen a league-high 18 targets to tight ends in that area of the field. Andrews could have one of those weeks that remind you why he was considered a top-three tight end in fantasy drafts this week. Nick Boyle is also out for the season, which clears up another two targets per game. He’s a great play in tournaments.