The Kansas City Chiefs have been without Sammy Watkins since he suffered a hamstring injury in Week 5, but he should be all set to return following their Week 10 bye. The veteran wideout logged three limited practice sessions back in Week 9, so he was already nearing a return, and the extra rest should be enough to get him back on the field.

Before his injury, Watkins had finished as the WR10 (21.5 PPR points), WR112 (2.1), WR35 (13.2), and WR72 (6.3), and WR47 (10.4). He was the overall WR36 after Week 5, and his fantasy production suggests that he’s a low-end WR3/high-end WR4 in PPR formats. I would pick him up if you have space or need a stopgap, but he doesn’t have the upside of a true league-winner.

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Player Profile

Watkins is now in his seventh year, and Buffalo’s former fourth-overall pick hasn’t lived up to the hype. Injuries have continuously derailed even the best of his seasons — he’s played in 16 games just once, and that came all the way back in his rookie year. But while you can’t trust Watkins to stay on the field, you can usually trust him to produce when he’s on it.

The wideout has averaged 3.9 catches and 48.8 yards per game as a Chief. He’s totaled eight touchdowns, too, although five of them came in two games. This season, Watkins was averaging 5.0 targets, 4.2 catches, and 44.4 receiving yards before his injury. But these numbers don’t do Watkins justice — they don’t count what he’s done in the playoffs.

Happy Birthday to Sammy Watkins & Frank Clark!

– Watkins had 2 of his 3 highest-graded games of the 2019 season in the AFC Champ. (87.4) & SB (73.7)

– Clark pressured the QB on 17% of dropbacks and led the NFL in sacks during the 2019 postseason (5).pic.twitter.com/bp5GiF8u8z

— PFF (@PFF) June 14, 2020

Watkins averaged 4.8 catches and 92.8 receiving yards per game in his five playoff appearances with the Chiefs. That’s a lot more impressive than his regular-season numbers, which are deflated a bit by Patrick Mahomes’ 2019 injury.

To be fair, these aren’t game-breaking averages. But they look pretty good in context — through the same timespan, DeVante Parker has averaged 3.7 catches and 54.8 yards per game with the Dolphins, while Mike Williams has averaged 3.0 catches and 53.7 yards per game. Both tend to get a bit more respect than Watkins because they’ve scored more touchdowns, but since Watkins catches more passes per game, you can trust him in PPR formats.

State of the Offense

Sure, Patrick Mahomes has plenty of weapons to work with, but the Chiefs are also attempting the ninth-most passes in the league (37.3). That leaves plenty of looks to go around to a WR2 like Watkins.

I found it interesting how clear Watkins’ absence was felt in his team’s target data. The Chiefs’ four best remaining wideouts combined saw an increase in their average targets per game that was roughly equivalent to Watkins’ role — Tyreek Hill (+2.3 targets), Demarcus Robinson (+0.8), Mecole Hardman (+0.6), and Byron Pringle (+1.8) combined for an additional 5.5 targets per game.

This figure doesn’t tell us much, but it does suggest that Watkins’ share of the offense will be there once he gets back. The Chiefs didn’t pivot away from the passing game, and they didn’t shift his targets to a running back (like the newly-acquired Le’Veon Bell) or a tight end.

So if we can expect Watkins to get around five targets per game, what does that mean for his fantasy value? That’s right in the range of guys like Mike Williams (5.6 targets), Keelan Cole (5.4), Curtis Samuel (5.3), Larry Fitzgerald (5.2), Kendrick Bourne (5), Zach Pascal (5), and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (5), all of whom border on fantasy relevance each week.

Targets don’t tell the full story, of course — we should also consider how far downfield those targets travel. We can do so by looking at a player’s average depth of target (aDOT). Watkins’ aDOT (7.2 yards) means that he compares better to Samuel (6.8) and Fitzgerald (5.8) than to Williams (15.9) or Valdes-Scantling (17.4), and that reduces his upside. He’ll have a harder time posting fantasy-relevant numbers unless Mahomes starts throwing to him more frequently or hits him further downfield.

Watkins’ Outlook

While his volume paints an unflattering picture, Watkins remains a viable waiver-wire pickup in PPR formats. His steady stream of targets creates a solid floor, and a few of his future matchups look promising.

The Chiefs will play the Raiders (16th-worst against receivers in PPR), Buccaneers (10th-best), Broncos (15th-best), Dolphins (12th-worst), Saints (16th-best), and Falcons (3rd-worst) before the fantasy playoffs end. Aside from the Buccaneers, none of those seem intimidating, and having the Falcons in Week 16 could be a godsend for those in their fantasy championships.

Watkins looks like a solid low-end WR3/high-end WR4 in PPR. While he’s not someone who can bail you out of a losing season, he can come through for a solid performance in a pinch. If that’s what you need to lock yourself into the fantasy playoffs, pick him up! If not, don’t, as he doesn’t have enough upside to warrant a roster spot barring an injury to Tyreek Hill.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.