Air Yard Analysis: Week 10 (2020 Fantasy Football)

Welcome to Air Yard Analysis! Each week, I’ll break down the trends in air yards across the NFL. In case you haven’t used air yards for fantasy analysis before, here’s the rundown on what the advanced stat means:

Fantasy football is a game of volume. Snaps, carries, targets, receptions, yards, red-zone looks — all of these reflect the opportunities a player receives in a game. While it’s up to the player to capitalize on their chances, a player’s efficiency tends to vary more than their opportunities.

Air yards are another volume stat that’s crucial to understanding a player’s value. Air yards measure the total distance that a thrown ball travels from the line of scrimmage to the player in question, and they help us to understand which targets are worth more than others.

For example, a wide receiver who earned six targets and eight air yards is far less valuable than one who earned four targets and 92 air yards, even if the second player failed to catch all of their looks. That’s because a best-possible six receptions for eight yards gives you only 6.8 PPR points, while four catches for 92 yards would let you 13.2 PPR points. That’s a higher ceiling, and the second player could even drop a pass and still out-perform the first player.

One of the best ways to gauge how an offense uses a receiver is to look at his average depth of target (aDOT). By dividing a player’s air yards by their total targets, we get a sense of how far beyond the line of scrimmage a player is usually targeted. The metric helps us to distinguish between high-volume players and low-volume deep threats.

Each week, I’ll read through and analyze every team’s air yards to give you my take. I’ll include every player with a target in my charts, and I’ll highlight which players are leading the league in each stat.

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Arizona Cardinals

Takeaways: Hopkins willed the Cardinals to the win with his wild hail-mary reception, and that’s reflected in his impressive number of air yards … Christian Kirk had a weird week, as the Cardinals didn’t look his way downfield and targeted him close to the line of scrimmage instead … given his aDOT to date, he should return to his deep-threat role next week … Fitzgerald remains a short-yardage option who needs lots of targets to hit value, and he shouldn’t be on your radar outside of very deep PPR leagues … Edmonds’ consistent usage beyond the line of scrimmage adds to his fantasy value, and he’s a viable RB3/FLEX even with Drake back in the lineup.

Baltimore Ravens

Takeaways: With these numbers, you’d expect Marquise Brown to have scored more than 3.4 PPR points … he didn’t, however, because of rain and solid defensive play … while Brown remains a solid deep threat, he doesn’t have much floor, and he’s a shaky play at WR3/FLEX each week … Snead’s role has been trending up in recent weeks, and the slot receiver has averaged six targets per game over his last three appearances … he needs a high number of targets to hit value, as he’s not often targeted far downfield … none of the other wideouts in Baltimore have any fantasy relevance.

Buffalo Bills

Takeaways: Just as we all expected, Beasley led this team in air yards … he led by virtue of his 13 total targets, as he wasn’t often targeted far downfield … now that he’s recovered from injury, John Brown has returned to a solidly fantasy-relevant role in this offense … Stefon Diggs is still the best option to roster in Buffalo, as he can successfully post WR1 numbers even when his teammates pop off … Davis is a boom-or-bust play, but he has some appeal in the right matchups given the volume to go around

Carolina Panthers

Takeaways: Moore continues to be a boom-or-bust deep threat, and he burned those of his managers who benched him in what seemed like a tough matchup … Teddy Bridgewater doesn’t throw downfield often, but Moore now ranks 10th in receiving yards on just the 32nd-most receptions (39) … his usage won’t change moving forward, and he’ll remain a hit-or-miss option … unlike Moore, Anderson did have a down week … he’s still the more reliable starter in PPR formats, as he leads the team (and ranks fifth overall) in receptions (64) … the one knock on Anderson is that he doesn’t catch touchdowns … with Christian McCaffrey still sidelined, both Mike Davis and Curtis Samuel should continue to enough short-yardage work to make them fantasy-relevant.

Chicago Bears

Takeaways: Oof — after four weeks of leading the Bears in air yards, Darnell Mooney came crashing back to Earth … he drew only two targets, and neither traveled far beyond the line of scrimmage … he should bounce back given his prior volume, however, and I wouldn’t consider dropping him … why? well, the Bears rank third in attempted passes per game, so there are plenty of looks to go around … Robinson is the best receiver to roster on the Bears, of course, by virtue of his high-volume role … Anthony Miller had a surprisingly large role downfield, as the slot receiver is usually targeted closer to the line of scrimmage … his production should return to normal next week, and he’s a volume-based WR4/FLEX in PPR formats.

Cincinnati Bengals

Takeaways: While Green continues to have great peripherals, his actual stats are enough to cut him from your fantasy team … he’s caught two passes for 19 yards in his last two games … if you were holding out hope for a rebound, it’s time to give up on him — even if he does have another big game (or two), he has such a high chance to bust that he’s not worth the risk … Higgins is the better perimeter receiver in Cincinnati, as he’s turned fewer air yards into almost 300 more receiving yards … Boyd remains a viable WR2 in PPR formats due to his high-volume role in the slot; while he doesn’t have the air yards to back it up, he actually leads this team in receiving yards.

Cleveland Browns

Takeaways: The Browns didn’t need to pass much against the Texans, as Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb ran for 258 yards and a score in the win … Baker Mayfield only attempted 20 passes, and no receiver caught more than three passes … that’s how this offense will work moving forward, as the Browns will only attempt enough passes to make their receivers fantasy-relevant when they’re playing from behind … Higgins has replaced Odell Beckham as Cleveland’s deep threat, while Jarvis Landry is a volume-dependent short-range option.

Denver Broncos

Takeaways: Jerry Jeudy had led the league in air yards in Week 8 and Week 9, but he was finally surpassed last week … he now ranks third overall in air yards, and he’s the clear-cut downfield threat in Denver … Tim Patrick still has a role to play here, but it’s considerably smaller than what it was before he got hurt … Hamler has finally asserted himself and claimed a role in this offense, and even though he’s a short-yardage slot guy, he’ll be a reliable fantasy option if the Broncos continue to play from behind … Noah Fant’s short-range aDOT is notable, as the Broncos depend on him to generate yards after the catch.

Detroit Lions

Takeaways: In another week without Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones led this team in air yards and targets (10) …  I was skeptical of him last week, but an injury to Danny Amendola makes him the clear-cut lead option until Golladay gets back … this information may not help you much this week, however — of Golladay, Jones, and Amendola, only Golladay practiced on Wednesday … he’s a clear-cut WR1 option if he plays … Marvin Hall should have a fantasy-relevant role as a boom-or-bust wideout if Jones misses time … Swift drew negative air yards in his first game as the starter, a departure from his usage as a committee back.

Green Bay Packers

Takeaways: These numbers don’t mean much with Allen Lazard’s impending return … MVS will continue to be a boom-or-bust deep threat once he gets back, but he’s unlikely to see as much volume as he did last week … Adams is a fantasy cheat code, and even though he doesn’t get tons of long-range targets, he is tied for the league lead in receiving touchdowns (9) despite having only played in seven games … also — the fact that only two receivers and one tight end appear on this list is a testament to how few weapons Aaron Rodgers has had to work with in 2020.

Houston Texans

Takeaways: The Texans only scored seven points in an ugly loss to the Browns, and Deshaun Watson only threw for 163 yards … the Texans leaned on their receivers’ ability to generate yards after the catch in ugly weather, which explains why everyone (except Cobb) saw below-average aDOTs … Cooks and Fuller should rebound next week, as Houston will be able to attempt longer-range passes at home … Darren Fells and Jordan Akins pretty much cancel each other out at this point, and they’re low-end, touchdown-dependent streamers at best.

Indianapolis Colts

Takeaways: The Colts have been a headache for fantasy managers, both at running back and receiver … Nyheim Hines scored two touchdowns for the second time this season, and he did so despite earning negative air yards — he usually gets used beyond the line of scrimmage, but he has lost air yards over the past two weeks, so this could be an interesting trend to follow … Michael Pittman has quickly become the best fantasy option in this offense, and last week, he beat out Pascal for the team lead in targets (8-to-5) … I wrote glowingly about him back in September, and I’m glad that he’s proving me right … he’s a viable bench stash, but I wouldn’t start him against the Packers unless Jaire Alexander has to miss another game.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Takeaways: After a thrilling debut, Jake Luton didn’t do much against the Green Bay Packers … with Laviska Shenault sidelined, Chris Conley led this team in targets (8) … he didn’t play his usual downfield role, but he should against the Steelers, and his chemistry with Luton is a positive sign … he could be a viable high-upside WR4/FLEX option for as long as Luton remains the starter … that said, Keelan Cole led the Jaguars in receptions (5) and receiving touchdowns (1), so he had the much better fantasy performance … he has similar value to Conley, although his short-yardage role means that he’ll need either lots of targets or a touchdown to be a relevant option … Chark wasn’t great, but his managers knew that he was a boom-or-bust play when they toom him, and he’ll continue to be an inconsistent, high-upside option regardless of who starts here.

Las Vegas Raiders

Takeaways: Waller saw an unusually long-range aDOT last week, but I suspect that he’ll return to his short-yardage, high-volume role next week … the Raiders didn’t have to attempt many pass to beat the Broncos, as they ran for 200-plus yards and scored four times on the ground … Ruggs, Agholor, and Edwards are all long-range weapons, and that makes them boom-or-bust options in fantasy … the fact that they’re splitting such a limited quantity of long-range looks dilutes their combined value, however, and the best of them (Agholor) is nothing more than a high-risk play at WR4/FLEX … Hunter Renfrow doesn’t really have a role when both Edwards and Ruggs are active, and you can safely return him to the waiver wire.

Los Angeles Chargers

Takeaways: Mike Williams remains a fantastic high-upside deep threat with Justin Herbert under center … he only caught two passes for 38 yards last week, but when Williams hits, he hits — he’s a smart matchup-based start in redraft or DFS, but his lack of floor makes him hard to trust … Keenan Allen is the better receiver to roster in Los Angeles, as he leads the league in targets per game (11.6) … Hunter Henry finally scored a touchdown, but in an offense with so many other red-zone threats (and Herbert’s ability to score from long beyond the red zone), he’s a lower-floor option at tight end than in years past.

Los Angeles Rams

Takeaways: The Rams took on the league’s worst defense against wide receivers last week … what was the result? Josh Reynolds was the only fantasy-relevant option, and neither Woods nor Kupp did much in the box score … the Rams are a run-first offense, and that significantly caps the fantasy value of each of these wideouts — if they can’t hit value against a historically bad defense, it’ll be hard to trust them moving forward … Reynolds now leads this team in air yards despite ranking third in targets (48); he may only have the third-most receiving yards, but his long-range role makes him a solid upside play when the Rams play the Seahawks again in Week 16.

Miami Dolphins

Takeaways: In the first week without Preston Williams, Devante Parker and Mike Gesicki dominated Miami’s share of air yards … they’re both higher-floor options until Williams returns, although the Dolphins have now thrown for under 100 yards in two of Tua Tagovailoa’s starts … Parker only caught two of his seven targets last week … Jakeem Grant led the team in receptions (4), receiving yards (43), and receiving touchdowns (1) … with Williams and Myles Gaskin sidelined (and Isaiah Ford now a Patriot), Grant could have a fantasy-viable role.

Minnesota Vikings

Takeaways: The Vikings are still a run-first team, but Jefferson and Thielen have tons of upside as the team’s only two fantasy-viable receiving weapons … both depend on long-range targets, evinced by their aDOTs … since those are more likely to come in negative game scripts, it’s smarter to start the duo when the Vikings are underdogs than when they are favored … there’s always a chance that one (or both) of them bust, however (remember Week 8?), so mentally prepare yourself for that risk when you start them.

New England Patriots

Takeaways: It’s never a good sign for a team’s passing offense when only five players record targets and only one of them is a wide receiver … sure, we can blame the weather, but it’s clear that Meyers is the only fantasy-relevant wideout in this offense … he’s not a bad WR3/FLEX option in this role, although he has much more value in PPR formats … Rex Burkhead now has positive air yards on the season due to his Week 10 usage, and while I don’t expect him to see this work moving forward, he’s probably a better option than James White as a result.

New Orleans Saints

Takeaways: If you drafted Michael Thomas, I’m sorry … while he should rebound (especially with a gunslinger like Jameis Winston under center), he hasn’t been the high-volume, short-yardage wideout you drafted him to be … the Saints emphasized the run in their win last week, so it’s not surprising to see most of these players with under 15 air yards … these receiving weapons should bounce back against Atlanta’s struggling offense … Emmanuel Sanders could be a sneaky contrarian start if Tre’Quan Smith is forced to miss time with his concussion.

New York Giants

Takeaways: Darius Slayton opened the year as a fantastic deep threat, but his inefficiency (and Daniel Jones’) makes him the WR52 in half-PPR over the last three weeks … that’s worse than Christian Kirk (WR39), who has only played twice though that span … Sterling Shepard continues to be a reliable short-yardage, high-volume option, but his fantasy value depends entirely on his receptions, and he doesn’t have much value outside of PPR … despite the down week, Evan Engram is still one of the better options at tight end due to how incredibly thin the market is … Dion Lewis continues to draw looks downfield, but he’s not a fantasy-relevant option because Wayne Gallman dominates the rushing attempts and red-zone snaps.

Philadelphia Eagles

Takeaways: Now that he’s back, Jalen Reagor has asserted himself as the team’s leading deep threat … he draws more volume than John Hightower, Alshon Jeffery, and Travis Fulgham … although Reagor has only caught 12 of his 21 targets (57.1%), he has matchup-winning upside … Travis Fulgham’s value has fallen off with Reagor’s return, but he’s still a reliable option due to Philadelphia’s lack of alternatives … Zach Ertz’s return should limit Richard Rodgers’ role, and he’s not a viable streamer despite his sizeable share of this offense.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Takeaways: Ben Roethlisberger loves to chuck it deep, and two of his receivers finished top-10 in air yards last week … of Pittsburgh’s triumvirate of receivers, Chase Claypool has the most upside, as he sees longer-range targets and gets rushing attempts … Diontae Johnson is a close second, although some of his downfield looks have gone to Claypool … JuJu Smith-Schuster has the least upside due to his short-yardage looks, as he must generate most of his yards after the catch … Ebron gets enough volume to be a back-end streaming option in a thin tight end market.

Seattle Seahawks

Takeaways: The Seahawks didn’t look good against Jalen Ramsey and the Rams last week … although they combined for 233 air yards, Lockett and Metcalf combined for just 94 yards and no touchdowns … Lockett should bounce against the Cardinals this week, as he burned them for three scores in Week 7 … Metcalf struggled in the matchup, and while he’s not someone you can bench, you should prepare yourself for a down game … behind these two receivers, only David Moore has fantasy relevance; he ranks third on the team in air yards to date, and his combination of long-distance looks, dump-off passes, and rushing attempts makes him a solid punt play in the right matchup.

San Francisco 49ers

Takeaways: After a rough loss to the Saints, the 49ers will get a much-needed bye week to recover … Brandon Aiyuk is San Francisco’s only fantasy-viable wide receiver until Deebo Samuel gets back … even though James popped off in Week 9, he probably won’t have a role once Samuel gets back … Jordan Reed is a viable TE1 because of his volume — he ranked third in air yards and second in targets (6) … McKinnon didn’t have a great fantasy showing last week, but his 100-plus air yards suggest that he’ll still have a viable passing-game role once Raheem Mostert gets back.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Takeaways: I didn’t think Brady could make Evans, Gronk, Brown, and Godwin all fantasy-viable options, but that’s exactly what he did against the Panthers … all of them (except Gronk) earned at least six targets, while the veteran tight end managed to hit value on a 44-yard touchdown catch … while Gronk ranks second in air yards, most of them came on one target, so I’m worried about his volume moving forward … that said, he’ll be a viable boom-or-bust option at a thin position … Godwin’s short-range usage means that he’ll depend on a large target share and lots of yards after the catch to hit value … you can safely return Scott Miller to waivers.

Tennessee Titans

Takeaways: A week after getting blanked in the box score, Davis bounced back to lead the team in air yards and targets (6T) … surprisingly, he tied with Jonnu Smith in targets — yet from Weeks 6 to 9, Smith had drawn just 10 total looks (2.5 per game) … Smith remains a touchdown-dependent streamer because of his low-volume role … speedster A.J. Brown should usually lead this team in air yards, and while he’s a bit of a bust risk (as we saw in Week 10), his upside makes him a fantastic starter each week … all of that said, expect the Titans to emphasize Derrick Henry and the running game against Baltimore’s banged-up defensive front.

Washington Football Team

Takeaways: The Washington Football Team almost pulled off the comeback against the Lions … Alex Smith threw for a league-high 390 passing yards in the loss, although he failed to throw for a score … the Football Team has instead featured Antonio Gibson when close to the goal line in recent weeks … the air yards and target share suggest that only two non-running backs, Thomas and McLaurin, have fantasy value here … J.D. McKissic leads the team in dump-off targets; he managed to rank third in air yards despite averaging just 3.4 of them per target … he’s a smart RB2/FLEX play in PPR formats.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.