When looking at an NFL DFS slate, I usually begin with these two steps:
- Examining Implied Team Totals and Game Over/Unders
- Identifying Teams to Target and Possible Stacks
Each week, I will share my findings with you after I have completed these first two steps. Throughout this piece, I will reference implied team totals, winning probabilities, and game over/unders that are acquired from our consensus odds collected over at BettingPros.
Games/Teams to Target
- Atlanta at Minnesota (Over/Under 54.5)
- Minnesota Team Total: 29.0
- Atlanta Team Total: 25.5
- Detroit at Jacksonville (Over/Under 54.5)
- Detroit Team Total: 29.0
- Jacksonville Team Total: 25.5
- Green Bay at Tampa Bay (Over/Under 54.0)
- Green Bay Team Total: 28.25
- Tampa Bay Team Total: 25.75
- Cleveland at Pittsburgh (Over/Under 51.0)
- Pittsburgh Team Total: 27.25
- Cleveland Team Total: 23.75
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DFS Stacks to Target
All salaries are from FanDuel, but these stacks can be utilized on DraftKings as well.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB – MIA): $7,400 / Mike Gesicki (TE – MIA): $5,600
After a rough outing in Week 1 at New England, Ryan Fitzpatrick has been nothing short of spectacular for fantasy purposes. In Weeks 2-5, the Harvard man has posted FanDuel totals of 24.32, 24.7, 23.3, and 27.6 fantasy points. He has added at least twelve rushing yards in each contest, including games with 38 rushing yards and 47 rushing yards. Fitzpatrick also has a couple of rushing scores on the season.
The Jets are simply not a good football team. That’s not a bold statement. They have allowed at least 27 points in each game they have played, even though two of their games have come against the Colts and Broncos. The Dolphins have an implied team total of 28 points, which is one of the highest on the main slate.
In particular, the Jets have been beaten vulnerable to the tight end position. In Week 2, they allowed seven receptions for 50 yards and two scores to Jordan Reed while George Kittle was recovering from injury. The following week, Mo Alie-Cox hauled in all three of his targets on his way to 50 yards and a score as the Colts cruised to an easy win over the Jets. On a main slate without George Kittle, Travis Kelce, and Darren Waller, pivoting off a projected high-ownership Mark Andrews could prove to be key.
Mike Gesicki is one of my favorite tight end plays, as he is only the seventh-most expensive player at his position and is a $2,000 discount compared to Andrews. On a team with an implied total of 28 points in a matchup that has been beneficial for tight ends, Gesicki is a great option to pair with Fitzpatrick. Whether quarterback Sam Darnold returns or not, Jamison Crowder ($6,600) of the Jets has been fantastic when healthy, and he is a great bring-it-back option for this stack. He should be able to find room against the Miami secondary.
Matthew Stafford (QB – DET): $7,300 / Kenny Golladay (WR – DET): $7,200
The Lions are 3.5-point road favorites as they get set to visit Jacksonville coming off a Week 5 bye. The Jaguars have been involved in high-scoring affairs all season, and the oddsmakers in the desert think that Sunday will be no different. The game carries an over/under of 54.5 points, which is tied for the highest total on the slate.
Stafford has thrown the ball at least 30 times in every game this season, and he has averaged over 20 fantasy points per game after getting back his number one target in Kenny Golladay. This Jacksonville defense will be the most generous one that Stafford has faced thus far. The Jags just allowed Deshaun Watson to have a get-right game, and he totaled 359 passing yards and three scores through the air.
The 1-4 Jaguars have awarded a team its first win in three consecutive contests, which is the first time in NFL history that a franchise has accomplished that feat. The Jacksonville secondary allowed 90 and 77 receiving yards in Week 4 to Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins, respectively, to give the Bengals their first win. And after getting shut out in Week 4, Brandin Cooks rebounded against this Jaguars defense to record eight receptions for 161 yards and a touchdown in Week 5. The Jaguars are arguably the best matchup for receivers at the moment.
Kenny Golladay has posted 14-plus fantasy points in his two games in 2020, both of which came against teams that are tougher on fantasy wide receivers (Cardinals and Saints). Fresh off a bye, Golladay should be fully recovered from his injury and ready to feast on a generous Jaguars secondary that has allowed breakout games to receivers over the past few weeks. We saw how anemic the Jaguars’ offense looked without D.J. Chark in that Thursday night game against Miami. If the LSU product is not good to go for Week 5, then Laviska Shenault ($5,800) should see enough volume to warrant a play as a bring-it-back option for this Detroit-Jacksonville game stack.
Kirk Cousins (QB – MIN): $7,100 / Adam Thielen (WR – MIN): $7,400
The Vikings had many opportunities to hand Seattle its first loss in a great Sunday Night Game in Week 5, but MVP candidate Russell Wilson was able to lead a game-winning drive. The Vikings’ Week 6 opponent is in a bit of a different situation. The 0-5 Atlanta Falcons parted ways with both Head Coach Dan Quinn and General Manager Thomas Dimitroff. Uncertain about their future direction, the Falcons will travel to Minnesota as the team allowing the most fantasy points to the quarterback position.
Cousins has not been able to reach his ceiling thus far in 2020, but he could have had a bigger game this past Sunday if the game script had called for it. Minnesota running backs scored twice on the ground, and the Vikings held a lead for most of the game. While the Falcons are winless, their offense has been able to put up points for the most part. The Vikings are only 3.5-point home favorites, so the Falcons are expected to keep it close. Kirk Cousins could have a larger passing volume as a result, particularly because Atlanta is so vulnerable through the air.
Cousins and Thielen connected on nine of thirteen targets for 80 yards and two touchdowns in Week 5 at Seattle. It was Thielen’s second multi-score game of the season, and he will enter Week 6 tied for the league lead in receiving scores. In Week 5, Robby Anderson posted eight receptions for 112 yards while D.J. Moore added 90 receiving yards and a touchdown against this Atlanta secondary. The Falcons haven’t been able to stop anybody in 2020, as they have allowed 30-plus points in every game but one.
The Falcons offense is much better when Julio Jones is active. Whether he is playing or not, this game stack could include Atlanta’s Calvin Ridley ($8,600), who bounced-back from his goose-egg in Week 4 to post eight receptions for 136 yards against the Panthers in Week 5.
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Shane Bryant is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Shane, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @ShaneBryant31.
