Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (Monday Night)
Total: 57.5
Line: KC by 3.5
QBs
Patrick Mahomes: Last week wasn’t a good one for Mahomes. While it may have been worse for their defense, Mahomes continually looked like he was trying to make a highlight-reel play rather than playing his game. He’ll be okay but he needs to get back to the basics of pocket passing, or we’ll see more games with 51 percent completion rates. He was pressured 47 percent of the time against the Raiders, but he held onto the ball for an average of 3.71 seconds, which was the highest mark in the NFL. On the year, he’s averaged 2.94 seconds, so he held onto the ball a bit too long. The Bills pressure-rate hasn’t been very good, as they ranked 18th in the category and have yet to pressure a quarterback more than 32 percent of the time in each of their last four games. We just watched a Titans team that hadn’t practiced all week put 42 points up on this defense, though not having Tre’Davious White is a big deal. The only quarterback who hasn’t scored at least 22 fantasy points against the Bills is Sam Darnold, and that was way back in Week 1. Are they imploding? Don’t forget this was a defense that didn’t allow a single quarterback more than 22.7 fantasy points against them in 2019 and allowed just two top-12 quarterback performances all season. It’s worth noting that just one quarterback this year has averaged more than 7.07 yards per attempt against them, but three quarterbacks have been able to throw for 311-plus yards due to some volume. On top of that, they’ve allowed 20.4 fantasy points on the ground to quarterbacks. If they can’t get pressure to Mahomes, they’re in trouble. Start Mahomes as you normally would, as the Bills don’t appear to be the same defense they were in 2019.
Josh Allen: While watching Allen on Tuesday night (that’s weird to type), he didn’t look like the same quarterback we watched for the first four weeks of the season. He was throwing into double- and sometimes triple-coverage rather than taking off and running with the ball, and he lacked the confidence we saw in those first four games. It’s just one bad game, they happen. The Chiefs haven’t been kind to quarterbacks this year, allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points to them. They’ve allowed just a 61.5 percent completion-rate, which is well below average, and have allowed just a 4.35 percent touchdown-rate while dealing with cornerback injuries and suspensions. The great news is that they’ve allowed the seventh-most fantasy points on the ground to quarterbacks, which is very similar to when they allowed the eighth-most. Both Deshaun Watson and Justin Herbert rushed for touchdowns, while Lamar Jackson rushed for 83 yards against them, so Allen needs to get back to utilizing one of his best weapons. It bodes well for him knowing that his team-implied total is 27.0 points, as his running backs rarely find their way into the end zone. This hasn’t been a smash spot for quarterbacks, despite what some believe, but Allen can still have a top-five game if he uses his legs against this scheme.
RBs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: It’s been a disappointing start to the season for Edwards-Helaire, though it’s not necessarily due to his play, but rather circumstances. He’s averaging 4.2 yards per carry, 10.0 yards per reception, and has received 108 of the 139 opportunities available to Chiefs running backs, which is a massive 77.7 percent, but he’s scored just once on a team that has scored 143 points. This is where I remind you he’s still getting 77.8 percent of the Chiefs carries inside the five-yard line, so points will come. It seems the Bills have placed an emphasis on stopping the run this year, and it’s led to them bleeding fantasy points to quarterbacks. They’ve allowed just 3.89 yards per carry and 5.06 yards per target, which are both well below the league average, and it’s why they’ve allowed just one running back to top 57 rushing yards, and no running back to top 36 yards receiving. That makes touchdowns extremely important. The 115.6 total yards per game they’ve allowed to running backs ranks as the eight-fewest in the league. The Chiefs have a 30.5-point team-implied team total, which is a great thing for a running back who is due for some serious positive touchdown regression. Keep plugging him in as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2, as the opportunity is clearly there.
Devin Singletary and Zack Moss: We have no clue what to do with Moss at this point, as he’s not touched the ball since Week 2 and was inactive on Tuesday night where T.J. Yeldon ate into his potential workload. Singletary didn’t look good against the Titans, so it’s hard to say how this backfield will look moving forward, though I suspect Singletary will remain the most valuable. It’s an important question considering the matchup they have in front of them, as the Chiefs have continually been one of the worst teams in the league against the run. After allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs last year, they rank as the 10th-worst in the league this year, and that’s despite allowing just three touchdowns to them. Based on yardage, they’ve allowed 913 of them, which is 44 more yards than any other team in the NFL. Dating back to last year, in the same scheme, with very similar personnel, the Chiefs have allowed 23 running backs to hit double-digit PPR points against them. Keep in mind that’s a span of 21 games, so more than one per game. 15 of those running backs broke the 15-point barrier. The total weighted opportunity against the Chiefs for running backs is the second-highest mark in the league behind only the Panthers, so we want some action on Bills running backs. For now, Singletary should be considered as a low-end RB2 with more upside than most in that territory, though he would get a bump in the rankings is Moss is inactive again. If Moss plays, he’s nothing more than a risky RB4 who’s been out of the lineup for three weeks.
WRs
Tyreek Hill: Despite not having a single game over 100 yards, Hill is the No. 6 wide receiver in PPR formats. He’s never been this consistent (I’ve highlighted this in Boom, Bust, and Everything In Between), but a touchdown in every game will do that. It’s kind of crazy he’s seen just six targets in 4-of-5 games. Now with Sammy Watkins out of the lineup for a few weeks, we should see his targets per game spike as well. The Bills do not have the answer for Hill, even if Tre’Davious White can make it back for this game, as he’s not someone who travels into the slot, which is where Hill goes about 58 percent of the time. In fact, the top five wide receiver performances the Bills have allowed since the start of last year are all slot receivers. Their slot cornerback is Taron Johnson, who’s been abused this year, allowing 25-of-32 passing for 285 yards in his coverage. His 4.5-second speed is not going to cut it with Hill. Consider him a locked-in WR1 who the Bills are likely going to struggle with.
Mecole Hardman: With Sammy Watkins out of the lineup for a couple weeks, Hardman is going to get more opportunity. He ran 36 routes last week, which was the third-most in his career, and Watkins was on the field for 20 routes, so it wasn’t even a full game without him. Hardman’s 12.62 yards per target is the highest mark of all-time among receivers with 50-plus targets, while there’s just one other player (A.J. Brown) above 10.54 yards per target. There have been just five games in Hardman’s career where he’s seen more than four targets, and in those games, he’s scored at least 11.3 PPR points in four of them. The Chiefs will be rotating him in-and-out of the slot with Tyreek Hill, which is a good thing considering how many fantasy points the Bills have allowed through the slot. If you want to go contrarian, play Hardman over Hill in a tournament, though you won’t be doing that in redraft leagues. Hardman should be considered an upside WR3/4 who comes with a lower floor but higher ceiling than most in that range.
Stefon Diggs: Sure, John Brown has been producing when he’s on the field, but it’s clear as day who the No. 1 go-to receiver is for Josh Allen. He’s now totaled at least 86 yards in 4-of-5 games, including three of them with 100-plus yards. His 26.3 percent target share is more than you could’ve ever asked for. The matchup with the Chiefs is not a good one, despite contrary belief. The 48 receptions they’ve allowed ranks as the second-fewest in the NFL, while the 695 yards ranks as the sixth-fewest. Looking at fantasy points the Chiefs have allowed to running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, the wide receiver position has accounted for just 42.6 percent of the production, which ranks as the fifth-lowest percentage in the league. This is nothing new, as the Chiefs allowed the fewest yards in the league to receivers last year. It’s unlikely we see multiple receivers produce, which is why it’s so important that we know Diggs is the clear alpha. There have been just three receivers who’ve posted 100-plus yards against them in their last 21 games, though it is important to mention that two of them have been this year. Diggs should be started as a WR2 with his target share and importance in the offense, but it’s not a smash spot.
John Brown: I warned fantasy managers last week that I didn’t think Brown was going to play after tweaking his calf injury. There’s no guarantee he plays this week either, as soft tissue injuries can linger. I’ll pay attention to injury reports as we get closer and update you at the bottom of these notes. The matchup this week might make the decision to start or sit him easier, as the Chiefs have been among the best in the league at slowing down receivers. They dealt with some injuries/suspensions earlier in the year, but they’ve still allowed just the eighth-fewest points to the position. There have been four receivers who’ve topped 67 yards against them this year, but three of those receivers saw double-digit targets. Brown has seen just 13 targets over his last three games and would be coming off that soft tissue injury, creating additional concern. The lone positive is that the Bills have allowed 14.48 yards per reception to receivers, and Brown does have the deepest average depth of target on the team. If he plays, he’ll be a risky WR4.
Cole Beasley: The targets have been pretty static throughout the Bills offense, and Beasley has now seen six or seven targets in 4-of-5 games this year. This is typically the time of year Beasley shines, as fantasy managers look for bye week replacements. He’s posted at least 9.0 PPR points in 17-of-20 games since the start of last season. Should we consider him a safe replacement this week? Ehhh. The Chiefs have allowed the second-fewest receptions to the wide receiver position, and any slot option not named Keenan Allen has struggled to produce, including Julian Edelman and Hunter Renfrow over the last two weeks, as they combined for just four catches and 77 yards. Even going back to last year, no slot-heavy receiver reached 50 yards without seeing double-digit targets, something we don’t get out of Beasley. It’s probably a week where you can find better options, as he’s just a low-upside WR5 option.
TEs
Travis Kelce: The world is right again, as Kelce is the No. 1 tight end in fantasy by a wide 17-point margin. What happens when you take Watkins out of the offense? Sure, Hardman sees more targets, but he’s not seeing all those targets. Kelce will be targeted even more, as evidenced by his 12 targets last week. Now what happens when you combine that with a defense that’s allowed the most receptions (39) and yards (418) to tight ends? You get massive results. Mike Gesicki, Jonnu Smith, and Darren Waller have all posted top-five numbers against them this season, while the only two who didn’t were Chris Herndon (still caught 6-of-7 targets for 37 yards) and Tyler Higbee (who caught both of his two targets for 40 yards). Don’t overthink this one in DFS; Kelce should smash.
Dawson Knox: Despite John Brown being out last week, Knox was still not involved in the gameplan as he saw just three targets. That’s been a theme for him, as he’s seen three targets in every game this year. He hasn’t recorded more than two catches or 36 yards, so you’re not considering him. On top of that, the Chiefs are a team that’s been above average when it comes to efficiency against tight ends the last two years.
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
Total: 54.5
Line: ARI by 2.5
QBs
Kyler Murray: He had the best game of his career from a yards per pass attempt standpoint last week, when he threw for 380 yards against the Jets hopeless secondary. They didn’t generate any pressure, which has been the key to slowing Murray. When under pressure, he’s posted just a 24.2 QB Rating, which is the worst in the NFL. By throwing the ball down at the ground, you get a 39.6 QB Rating. Fortunately for him and the Cardinals, he’s only been under pressure on 24.5 percent of his dropbacks, which is the sixth-lowest mark in the league. The Cowboys rank eighth in quarterback pressure, though that was largely in part to their Week 5 matchup against the Giants, as they pressure Daniel Jones on 60 percent of his dropbacks. That tied the highest mark in the league this season. It wasn’t all good for the Cowboys, though, as they lost starting interior lineman Trysten Hill for the year to a torn ACL. The Cowboys secondary is not very good and don’t have the talent to stop the Cardinals wide receivers, so if they can’t get to Murray, it should lead to another big week. It also helps that both of these teams are in the top-12 for total plays per game, so it should be a fast pace. The Cowboys have done a good job containing quarterbacks on the ground, allowing just 52 rushing yards and no touchdowns, including negative rushing yards for Daniel Jones last week. But again, if Murray drops back to pass, the Cowboys are allowing 0.55 fantasy points per actual pass attempt, which ranks as the seventh-most in the league. Murray is performing far too well in fantasy to consider not playing him, and in fact, you look for quarterbacks to play against the Cowboys.
Andy Dalton: It’s not the ideal circumstances for Dalton to be taking over as the quarterback for the Cowboys, as everyone in the fantasy/real world roots for a speedy recovery to the superstar Dak Prescott. Dalton lacks the mobility that Prescott had, which could be a problem behind the crumbling Cowboys offensive line, though it certainly helps that the Cardinals just lost their best pass-rusher/defensive player in Chandler Jones, who tore his bicep. That’s really bad news for a team that’s averaged just a 27.6 percent pressure rate (ranks 8th-lowest) with him on the field. Even with him there, the Cardinals have 18.5-plus fantasy points to every quarterback not named Joe Flacco or Dwayne Haskins. Despite Teddy Bridgewater, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Matthew Stafford not throwing the ball no more than 37 times, they all threw for at least 259 yards and two touchdowns against this defense. We’ve seen the impact of losing an elite pass-rusher can do, right? Look at the 49ers. The Cardinals defense has clearly taken a step forward this season while limiting passers to just 7.32 yards per attempt, but they may’ve just taken a step back. We have nothing to go off with Dalton in a Cowboys uniform outside of his 9-for-11 passing for 111 yards in Prescott’s relief last week, but we do know that he’s flashed top-five upside with Marvin Lewis as his head coach. Remember that? Dalton should be considered a high-end QB2 with the artillery he has at his disposal.
RBs
Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds: The touchdowns that Edmonds has scored have inflated his numbers quite a bit. He’s scored a touchdown every 12.3 touches, which ranks as the third-most frequent number in the league. There’s no mistake about it, he looks better than Drake right now, though the touch share has not changed much, as Drake still led the 70/30 timeshare last week. Drake has still seen 57.1 percent of the team’s carries inside the five-yard line, while Murray is at 28.6 percent, and Edmonds is at 14.3 percent. These are things you need to know when it comes to considering someone like Edmonds in your lineup. They’ll play the Cowboys this week, a team that has now allowed at least 34 points in each of their last four games. Just 14.1 percent of the targets the Cowboys’ opponents have thrown have gone to the running back position, which is the lowest mark in the league, but 22.4 percent have gone to the tight end position, which is a position we know isn’t utilized in this offense. Those two positions correlate the most, so we could see Edmonds featured more than the Cowboys are used to, as he’s seen 23 of the 29 targets available to the Cardinals running backs. Think of him as a Chris Thompson-like running back from his Washington days, which did carry flex viability most of the time. Oddly enough, teams have run the ball against the Cowboys more than any other team, as they’ve faced an absurd 28.6 carries a week. There are 23 teams who haven’t seen as many running back touches as the Cowboys have seen just carries. This bodes well for Drake, who’s accounted for 81.7 percent of the Cardinals’ running back carries. Sure, Murray is going to steal some of that work, but Drake is likely looking at an 18-plus carry game unless the Cardinals shift to Edmonds. I’d say Drake should be a low-end RB2 who’s struggled with efficiency and has to worry about gamescript with his lack of volume in the passing game. As for Edmonds, he’s in the high-end RB4 conversation, but that touchdown regression is going to hurt when it hits.
Ezekiel Elliott: Remember what life was like for Elliott before Prescott became a household name and starting siphoning production? The offense ran through him and we should see more of that now that Prescott is on the shelf. His usage in the passing game is still very important, especially in this matchup, as the Cardinals have allowed a league-high 8.76 yards per target to running backs, which is 8.4 percent higher than any other team. The 2.22 PPR points per target they’ve allowed is massive for someone like Elliott, who’s seen 32 targets through five games, the third-most among running backs. The Cardinals did lose Chandler Jones as a pass-rusher, but they also lost his presence as a run defender, where he’s been solid. Even with him, they’ve allowed a sturdy 4.49 yards per carry on the season. No team they’ve played has totaled fewer than 90 rushing yards against them, and that includes the Jets, Lions, and Washington backfields. All-in-all, the Cardinals have been a slightly below average run defense this year that’s only going to get worse without Jones. Start Elliott as you normally would and expect results.
WRs
DeAndre Hopkins: He’s apparently over his ankle injury that caused him to be a bit limited in Week 4, as he popped off for 131 yards and a touchdown against the Jets weak secondary. He gets another cake matchup this week against the Cowboys, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points per target to opposing wide receivers, including a league-high nine touchdowns. As of right now, it’d be veteran Daryl Worley who’d match-up with Hopkins, a cornerback who’s been on three different teams in the last three years. Coming to the Cowboys has not resurrected his career, as he’s allowed 9-of-11 passing for 111 yards and a touchdown in his coverage. There’s a chance Chidobe Awuzie comes back from his hamstring injury this week, but he would be coming back from a multi-week injury, and might be playing on the other side of the field, which would move rookie Trevon Diggs over to Hopkins. No matter which way you slice it, Hopkins wins. Play him as a WR1.
Christian Kirk: I mentioned last week that Kirk was a solid fill-in and that he could surprise. I’d say that 5/78/0 fits that description. He’s now seen at least five targets in 3-of-4 games, including seven targets last week, so maybe we can consider him in plus matchups moving forward. Kirk often lines up at RWR which means he’ll see the most of rookie Trevon Diggs in coverage. Over his first five games in the league, he’s allowed 23-of-36 passing for 312 yards and two touchdowns. There are just two cornerbacks who’ve been targeted more than him. He’s been targeted every 5.1 snaps in coverage, which is quite often. The Cowboys as a whole have allowed 2.18 PPR points per target to wide receivers, so even if Kirk can get the five targets he has, he should be able to post WR4 numbers. There have already been eight wide receivers who’ve finished as top-24 options against the Cowboys. I have him in the solid WR4 territory.
Amari Cooper: I warned you about the matchup last week, as Cooper was going to have to deal with James Bradberry in coverage. With all the plus matchups the Cowboys had on the field, they didn’t need to push the issue with Cooper. The Cardinals aren’t really using Patrick Peterson in a shadow role, so Cooper shouldn’t have that same issue this week. He will see some of Peterson, but he’ll see more of Dre Kirkpatrick, a cornerback the Cardinals swiped off the street this offseason, and he’s stepped in and played admirably, though far from shutdown. He’s allowed 17-of-23 passing for 194 yards, though no one has scored on him. So, in the end, he’s keeping the play in front of him but allowing a very high catch-rate. The Cardinals defense as a whole has allowed just 1.59 PPR points per target, which ranks as the fourth-lowest mark in the league, but they’re going to be tested a bit more moving forward after losing their best pass rusher in Week 5. We’ll see how Andy Dalton disburses the targets over a full game, though he’s never had an issue heavily targeting talented players. Cooper should remain in lineups as a low-end WR1 this week.
Michael Gallup: As bad as it’s been for Gallup to start the year, he actually ranks sixth among wide receivers with 12.4 yards per target. The issue is that he’s been targeted more than five times just once through five weeks. That’s going to create volatility in a player who’s being used in the field-stretching role. It is worth noting that three of Dalton’s 11 pass attempts went to Gallup, including two on the final drive where he caught both of them for 57 yards. Based on where they align, Gallup should see the most of Patrick Peterson in coverage this week, which presents a tough matchup. Peterson isn’t the cornerback he once was but he’s still above average. The time to look for Gallup to make a splash is when Cooper has a tough shadow matchup, which isn’t this week. Gallup is a tough one to project with the limited targets and you don’t want to miss it when he catches a bomb for a touchdown, which makes him a risk/reward high-end WR4 where you just have to understand what you’re getting into.
CeeDee Lamb: He’s the first player in the NFL who’s began their career with at least five receptions and 50 yards in each of their first five games (h/t Tyler Buecher). That’s obviously great news, but it’s even better news that he’s seen at least six targets in every game, including a career-high 11 of them in Week 5. The Cardinals have done some shifting around with their defense this year and moved Byron Murphy into the slot where he’s played much better. He struggled last year, allowing 10 touchdowns on 104 targets in coverage, but has allowed just 14/196/1 on his 25 targets in coverage this year. It’s not all on him, though, as that’s the advantage that slot receivers have, as they’ll get matched up with linebackers and safeties at times. That’s how we saw Jamison Crowder rack up 8/116/1 last week. He’s the only slot receiver who’s totaled more than three receptions against them, but he’s also the only one who’s been targeted more than five times. Lamb has earned your trust and should be in lineups as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3.
TEs
Dan Arnold: The crazy part about Arnold not getting targeted last week (or ever for that matter), as he ranks 22nd among tight ends with 108 routes run. He has seen four targets in two games this year, so it seemed like maybe we were moving into a bigger portion of the pie, but after a zero-target game, it’s impossible to trust him. It’s a shame, too, as the Cowboys have been a fruitful matchup for tight ends, as they’ve allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to them. Hayden Hurst, Austin Hooper, and Greg Olsen were all able to finish as top-10 options against the Cowboys, but again, we can’t trust a tight end coming off a zero-target game.
Dalton Schultz: What happened to Schultz last week? We talked about his injury that he had at the end of Week 4, so was that the reason for his lack of involvement? He wasn’t listed on the injury report, and he did run 29 pass routes, so we have to assume it was just the gameplan. He hadn’t finished with less than four catches or 48 yards in his previous three starts, so don’t panic too much. Remember when the Cardinals were the team to attack with tight ends last year? You know, that historically bad team that allowed 13 top-10 performances to tight ends? Well, they sadly don’t seem to exist anymore, as they’ve held every tight end they’ve played to 53 yards or less. It’s a very small sample size, so what about the level of competition? George Kittle played them in Week 1 and was hurt before halftime, finishing with 4/44/0 on five targets. Outside of him, it’s been Logan Thomas, T.J. Hockenson, Ian Thomas, and Chris Herndon. Can we really judge them on that competition? They still would’ve allowed all of them top-12 production last year, so there’s improvement, but I’m not convinced tight ends are immune to production against them. Knowing Schultz has seen six-plus targets in three of his four starts, he can be played as a low-end TE1/high-end TE2.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.