Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

Total: 46.5
Line: NE by 9.5

QBs
Drew Lock or Brett Rypien: Through one and a quarter games, Rypien has averaged 7.4 yards per attempt, which is more than both Drew Lock and Jeff Driskel can say. Granted, one of his games was against the Jets, but he’s still got to take advantage of the good matchups. Lock did return to a limited practice this week last week, so we probably have to assume he plays this week. There are so many questions surrounding this team, but the scheme hasn’t really changed no matter who’s under center in Pat Shurmur’s offense. The Patriots went from a team you didn’t want to play anyone against, to one who you could actually target. They allowed just 5.99 yards per attempt in 2019, to one who’s allowed 8.20 yards per attempt in 2020 and are now going to be without their top cornerback Stephon Gilmore who is now on the COVID list. Teams haven’t thrown a whole lot against them though, as the 29.8 attempts per game suggests. As far as run to pass ratio, they have faced a pass play on 54.6 percent of plays (11th-lowest) while the Broncos have passed on 61.3 percent of their plays (10th-most), so something has to give. Gamescript should determine that and this game should be close throughout. The Broncos have thrown the ball just 54 percent of the time in neutral gamescripts (within three points either way), so I’d guess we see somewhere in the range of 30-35 pass attempts, which isn’t enough to start either of these quarterbacks confidently.

Cam Newton or Jarrett Stidham: Bill Belichick has said they’re taking it “day by day” when it comes to their quarterback position, as Cam Newton reportedly has a chance to play, especially now that this game was moved back a week. For now, I’m expecting Stidham to start for the Patriots, though I’ll come back and update if anything changes. Teams have continually attacked the Broncos through the air and it’s hard to blame them considering the results. They’ve faced the fourth-most pass attempts (41.5 per game), allowed the eighth-most passing yards (275.8 per game), and ninth-most passing touchdowns (7), all while intercepting just one pass. Still, it’s hard to see a scenario where the Patriots stick the ball in Stidham’s hands and let him chuck the ball 40-plus times. If those passing attempts are lowered in this game, the Broncos have allowed just the fifth-fewest yards per attempt (6.64). No matter which way you slice it, it’s hard to recommend Stidham outside of a Superflex/2QB format. *Update* Newton was cleared to return to practice on Thursday and is reportedly going to start. The matchup is obviously a good one for someone like him, as the running backs will struggle to run the ball consistenly on the Broncos defense. The last time we saw Newton, his passing was off-the-mark, but we know his legs have produced 49.7 yards per game and four touchdowns in three games, giving him multiple outlets to produce fantasy points. Consider him a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 who’ll fare better if he can get it done through the air this week. 

RBs
Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay: In case you missed it, Gordon has been charged with a DUI and may not be available for this game. He went to the Broncos facility on Wednesday and they sent him home on the day they install the gameplan. I would prepare to be without him this week, but I’ll post updates at the bottom of this section as the week goes on. Gordon looked good on his 23 touches against the Jets in Week 4, racking up 107 yards and two touchdowns. Now onto a Patriots team that doesn’t look the same as it did two weeks ago, let alone a year ago. They’ve allowed a healthy 4.36 yards per carry on the season, though no running back has been able to top 72 yards on the ground due to lack of plays. Their opponents have averaged just 57.2 plays per game on the year, which ranks as the second-fewest in the league. That has led to just 105 running back touches, or 26.3 per game. With Lindsay coming back this week, it would lower Gordon’s fantasy floor a bit more. However, with both Cam Newton and Stephon Gilmore on the COVID list, there’s a much better chance for the Broncos to actually win this game and be in a positive gamescript. If Gordon plays, he should still have a 15-touch floor against a defense that’s gone through too many changes to expect them to be better than average this year. With very little risk of getting blown out, Gordon should be an RB2 play this week, again, if he plays. Lindsay is someone who’s creeping up as a sneaky RB2 with Gordon so questionable. It’s a good time to check your league’s waiver wire list. Even if Gordon is active, Lindsay will likely split the workload. Stay tuned for more info. *Update* Gordon has been ruled OUT for this game. Lindsay becomes a back-end RB2 while Royce Freeman offers RB4 potential. 

Damien Harris, James White, and Rex Burkhead: The Patriots wasted no time letting you know they have zero issues with Harris, who racked up 17 carries in his first game of the season. It should be reminded that Sony Michel hadn’t had more than 11 carries in a game to this point. It should also be reminded that Harris racked up 100 yards on the ground, something Michel has done once over his last 20 games. The Broncos have allowed just one rushing touchdown on 88 carries this year and have been a funnel defense for the most part. The 0.59 PPR points per opportunity they’ve allowed to running backs is the lowest mark in the league, as no other team has allowed less than 0.64 PPR points per opportunity. The Broncos and the 49ers are the only two teams in the league who’ve allowed less than 0.68 PPR points per opportunity to running backs, highlighting just how bad this matchup is. The good news is that the Broncos aren’t blowing anybody out, which is allowing opponents to stack up touches. The 88 carries through four games ranks as the 15th-most in football. We can’t forget that they’ve lost two defensive tackles to IR this season, too. It’s not a smash spot for someone like Harris, who’s exclusively a two-down back, but he should net enough touches to get into low-end RB3 territory. He does lose a little bit of appeal with Newton under center, as he’ll be less likely to see goal-line carries. White went right back to his heavy usage in his first game back, piling up 40 snaps to Burkhead’s 27 snaps. Unfortunately, the 1.09 yards per target the Broncos have allowed through the air is the second-lowest mark in the league. This matchup requires volume, which is something we can’t guarantee for White or Burkhead. If you’re playing one it’s White, though he should be considered a low-upside RB3 for this game. Burkhead falls into the RB4 territory after losing his pass routes to White.

WRs
Jerry Jeudy: Through four NFL games, Jeudy has been… consistent. He’s totaled at least 55 yards in each game but hasn’t topped 62 yards. His touchdown catch against the Jets last week was a thing of beauty, and it masked what would’ve been a rough game, as he caught just one pass for 13 yards outside of that 48-yard touchdown. He did have the toughest matchup with Brian Poole in the slot. He has seen a steady stream of targets no matter the quarterback, so we shouldn’t be too concerned. This week, the Patriots will be without Stephon Gilmore, which tilts their whole defense upside down, but the slot was already an issue for them. Here are the slot performances they’ve allowed this year: Tyreek Hill (4/64/1 on six targets), Hunter Renfrow (6/84/1 on nine targets), Tyler Lockett (7/67/1 on eight targets), and Jakeem Grant (3/25/0 on four targets). This is a much better matchup and one where you should be willing to trust the consistent Jeudy for WR3 production.

Tim Patrick: What in the world is happening when Patrick is the No. 38 wide receiver points per game, in front of guys like Julio Jones, Marquise Brown, and Michael Gallup? He’s caught 16-of-21 targets for 209 yards and two touchdowns, which is impressive given his quarterback situation. And now, the Patriots are going to be without No. 1 cornerback Stephon Gilmore, which leaves J.C. Jackson as their top perimeter cornerback. He’s allowed 10-of-13 passing for 102 yards and a touchdown in his coverage this year. The Patriots haven’t allowed a 100-yard receiver against them this year, but they have allowed six different receivers to post double-digit PPR days. They’ve allowed seven touchdowns to receivers which ranks as the third-most in the league, and that’s despite playing just four games. It’s also what’s propelled them to allow the most points per target (2.24) to wide receivers. We can’t forget about Patrick’s first three games where he didn’t top four catches or 43 yards, so he’s far from a lock, but it helps to know that Noah Fant is likely out for this game. Patrick’s in the WR4 conversation this week.

Julian Edelman: After a hot start, Edelman has really cooled off the last few weeks, totaling just five catches for 58 scoreless yards against the Raiders and Chiefs. Whether people realize it or not, the Raiders (13th) and Chiefs (1st) are actually tough matchups for wide receivers. T.Y. Hilton, A.J. Green, and Edelman are the only receivers with 30-plus targets and no touchdowns this season. In Week 5, however, there are no excuses. Teams have continually attacked the Broncos cornerbacks, as wide receivers have averaged 25.3 targets per game against them. That’s led to the fifth-most fantasy points in the league, including 16.8 receptions per game, which is the second-most in the league. The Broncos are not likely going to have A.J. Bouye back for this game, which means Essang Bussey is going to remain as the slot cornerback, which is a very good thing for Edelman. Bussey has allowed 12-of-14 passing for 120 yards and a touchdown in his coverage. It hasn’t been pretty lately, but you have to shake it off and get Edelman back in lineups as a solid WR3 this week.

N’Keal Harry: Despite seeing six-plus targets in three of their four games, Harry has topped 39 yards just once. He did what he does best in their last game, skying up over a defender to win a contested catch from Stidham. It’s good that he found a quarterback who’ll trust him in those situations because he’s not very good at separating. Now with 52 targets over his career to go along with 271 yards (5.2 yards per target), it’s clear he needs volume to be a fantasy option. The Broncos have issues at cornerback with A.J. Bouye not due back, which means Harry will see a lot of Bryce Callahan in coverage. He’s a slot cornerback who’s not really used to playing on the perimeter. In his coverage this year, he’s allowed 16-of-22 passing for 142 yards, which is better than I would’ve expected. Still, he’s at a major size disadvantage against Harry (6-foot-2, 225 pounds) with his small 5-foot-9, 188-pound frame. Harry is going to remain a touchdown-heavy WR5 in fantasy until he starts getting more efficient, though Newton under center does provide a bit more promise than Stidham. This matchup is a good one, so if you believe in him and are feeling lucky, he could pan out.

TEs
Noah Fant: He’s not likely to play this week after Vic Fangio said he has a mild high-ankle sprain last week. Behind him last game were Jake Butt and Nick Vannett. It was Butt who ran 13 routes to just five for Vannett, so it would appear that Butt is the primary pass-catcher in Fant’s absence. Through four games, the Patriots have allowed just 12 receptions to tight ends, which ranks as the second-fewest in the league, so production has not been funneled there. You can look elsewhere for a streamer this week. *Update* They’re describing him as “truly questionable” right now, but I still don’t see him taking the field if he had a true high-ankle sprain. 

Ryan Izzo: He hasn’t seen more than three targets in any one game, and he has the same number of yards that you do over the last two games. You’re not considering Izzo in any format.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

Total: 47.5
Line: MIA by 8.0

QBs
Sam Darnold or Joe Flacco: We don’t know which quarterback will be under center this week, but does it really matter all that much to streamers? There’s been one game where a Jets quarterback topped 13.8 fantasy points and that was the game where Darnold scored 10.6 of his 23.6 fantasy points on one wild run. So, removing rushing, they haven’t topped 13.8 fantasy points this year. The Dolphins have allowed three top-15 fantasy performances on the season, but they were to Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, and Josh Allen. Meanwhile, they held Gardner Minshew, Jimmy Garoppolo, and C.J. Beathard to 46-of-77 passing for 446 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions. You’re not playing a Jets quarterback. *Update* Darnold was already ruled out. 

Ryan Fitzpatrick: As it turns out, threatening to bench Fitzpatrick might light a fire under him. After a semi-weak performance against a horrendous Seahawks defense, Fitzpatrick dismantled the 49ers defense for 350 yards and three touchdowns on just 28 pass attempts. He was on fire; that’s the simplest way to put it. Now going back to play the Jets on his revenge tour (that includes half the teams in the league), is Fitzgerald back on the streaming radar? In two games against Gregg Williams’ scheme last year (which had more talent on the defense), Fitzgerald was Jekyll and Hyde, as he posted 288 yards and three touchdowns in their Week 9 matchup, but then just 245 yards and no touchdowns in the second game. The Jets have faced just 33.2 pass attempts per game, as they’ve struggled to put points on the board, meaning teams haven’t had to throw the ball a whole lot. When quarterbacks have dropped back, they’ve completed a massive 72.3 percent of passes for 8.25 yards per attempt, which both rank as top-five marks in the league. Even Kyler Murray, who came into the game with a career average of just 6.77 yards per attempt to throw for 380 yards on 37 pass attempts, which amounts to 10.27 yards per attempt. There aren’t a whole lot of sure things when streaming quarterbacks, as there’s a reason those options are unowned, but Fitzpatrick has posted top-12 quarterback numbers in four straight games. He should be considered a high-end QB2 this week.

RBs
Frank Gore and Lamical Perine: In case you haven’t heard, the Jets released Le’Veon Bell this week. They’ll move forward with Gore and Perine, and maybe bring back Kalen Ballage. Good times. Gore leads the NFL with 66 touches without a touchdown. Shocker. No other player has more than 42 touches without a score. Perine hasn’t been trusted with more than nine opportunities in the three games Bell was out, so he’s surely going to be difficult to trust. Of the production the Dolphins have allowed to running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it’s been running backs who’ve accounted for 40.3 percent of that production, which is the fourth-highest percentage in the league, so the matchup isn’t really the problem. The problem is that no Jets running back has scored more than 10.2 PPR points on the season. I cannot express how difficult it is to have your running backs be this bad. Are the Dolphins the cure? Probably not, but they have allowed 4.97 yards per carry, 6.81 yards per target, and a touchdown every 15.8 touches to running backs. Look, we know what Gore is at this point. He’s going to 12-16 carries and maybe one reception. If you’re in a pinch, he should offer 4-8 PPR points but expecting him to find the end zone is a poor bet considering he’s scored twice on his last 486 carries. Oh, and the Jets have scored just 13.8 points per game. Perine is the unknown, as we just haven’t seen enough of him to say he’s a bad bet, though anyone playing under Adam Gase probably falls under that category. Perine is someone I’d stash in case they decide to see if he’s the long-term answer for the Jets as a franchise, even though cleaning house is likely happening soon. For now, Perine is just a RB4/5 hopeful.

Myles Gaskin and Matt Breida: I was going through opportunity for DFS purposes last week, trying to decide on a running back and Gaskin kept popping up. He’s averaging the 16th-most weighted opportunity in PPR formats, which is extremely valuable, though I was worried about him losing the high-value touches in the red zone. Well, had I known Jordan Howard was going to be a healthy scratch, I would’ve played Gaskin. He finished with 21 opportunities against the 49ers and turned them into 20.1 PPR points, good enough for a top-10 finish. That was a brutal matchup, so why should we care about the tough matchup against the Jets? Well, to be fair, it hasn’t been that tough in 2020, as there have been nine different running backs who’ve posted at least 10.1 PPR points against them and finished as top-32 running backs. They’ve played five games. It feels like a team that’s simply given up on the current coaching staff, as the 0.98 PPR points per opportunity they’ve allowed is head and shoulders above the 0.75 PPR points per opportunity they allowed last year. Over the last four weeks, no team of running backs have finished with less than 96 yards and a touchdown on the ground, while four of the five teams they’ve played have totaled at least 39 yards through the air with their running backs. 2020 has thrown a lot at us, but maybe nothing odder than me saying Gaskin is a solid RB2 this week who should have at least 18 opportunities in this game against a team that’s seen 30.2 running back touches per game. He’d become even safer if Howard were out again, though Lynn Bowden has taken a few touches in his place. Breida saw a bump in opportunities last week, as he carried the ball nine times and saw one target, but that game was a blowout against his former team. He was maxed out at eight touches before that game, so we can’t take too much from it. Still, there should be plenty of opportunities for this backfield in this game, so if you need to play him as an emergency RB4, you could do worse.

WRs
Jamison Crowder: I’ll admit it… I’m too low on Crowder, but I want you to understand where I’m coming from. Yes, he’s totaled at least seven receptions and 100-plus yards in each of the three games he’s played this year, but that’s such a small sample size on his career with the Jets. There were seven games he finished with at least five receptions and 66 yards last year, but there were also eight games where he finished with 40 yards or less and no touchdowns, which left you high-and-dry. What has changed in the offense? They lost Robby Anderson, which certainly helps his target floor, but that was never really a problem. This week should be an interesting test for him, as the Dolphins have been doing a solid job with slot receivers, though not perfect. Over the first five weeks, here are the slot-heavy receivers they played with their results: Julian Edelman 5/57/0 on seven targets, Cole Beasley 5/70/0 on six targets, Keelan Cole 4/43/0 on five targets, Tyler Lockett 2/39/0 on four targets, and Kendrick Bourne 2/30/1 on four targets. None of them seen the type of targets that Crowder has, and I’d say he compares most to Cole Beasley, who was quite efficient against them, but is there a reason that slot receivers haven’t been funneled more targets? The 15.1 yards per reception the Dolphins have allowed tends to say they’re weaker deeper down the field, but we know Crowder will get targets with the lack of weapons they have on offense. Crowder should be plugged in as a high-end WR3 until we’re proven otherwise, even if I’m too low on him.

Jeff Smith: Now that he’s seen 20 targets over the last two weeks, we must take notice, even if he has averaged a piddly 5.2 yards per target. The only receivers with more targets in that time are Allen Robinson, Robby Anderson, Adam Thielen, Emmanuel Sanders, and Terry McLaurin. The duo of Xavien Howard and Byron Jones is healthy, and the 49ers struggled last week with them both out there. The two have combined to allow 16-of-29 passing for 266 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions, so it’s safe to say it’s not a matchup to attack with the perimeter-only receiver.

DeVante Parker: Fortunately, Parker didn’t need a whole lot of targets to produce last week, as he saw just three targets and finished with two catches for 50 yards and a touchdown. It’s now a bit worrisome because he’s seen five or less targets in 3-of-5 games this year. There were just three games all last year where he didn’t see at least six targets. It is a new offense, so we must understand there may be some more volatility. Still, Parker has turned in at least 8.7 PPR points every game and has scored 11.9 or more in four of them. The Jets have allowed two 100-yard receivers on the season already, and neither of those receviers (DeAndre Hopkins and Tim Patrick) saw more than seven targets. In fact, there have been nine receivers who’ve totaled at least 52 yards, which highlights a high floor for Parker as the No. 1 receiver. The Jets have allowed a league-high 71.0 percent completion-rate to receivers, as well as a sky-high 9.88 yards per target. The cornerback duo that Parker will see is Pierre Desir and Lamar Jackson. This duo is likely the worst in the NFL, as they’ve combined to allow 27-of-33 passing for 439 yards and four touchdowns. Start Parker as a WR2 and deal with the target swings.

Preston Williams: We’ve certainly taken a step in the right direction for Williams, as he’s coming off an impressive performance against the 49ers where he caught 4-of-5 targets for 106 yards and a touchdown. Still, he hasn’t seen more than five targets in each of his last five games, making him a bit more volatile than you’d like. It was also his first game with more than 41 yards, so he’s far from a sure thing, but if you’re feeling lucky, the matchup is as good as it gets. The Jets lost starting cornerback Blessuan Austin to a calf injury and have been forced to start Lamar Jackson in his place (yes, there’s another one), and he’s been horrendous, allowing 11-of-13 passing for 204 yards and a touchdown in his coverage. Williams doesn’t have a high floor but the potential in this matchup is there, making him a risk/reward WR4.

TEs
Chris Herndon: There are just two tight ends in the league who’ve averaged less than 1.00 PPR point per target. Those tight ends are Herndon and Logan Thomas. Of the fantasy points the Dolphins have allowed to running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, just 9.6 percent of them have gone to the tight end position, which is the lowest mark in the league. The 1.29 PPR points per target rank as the third-lowest in the league. It’s not a week to expect Herndon to come back from the dead.

Mike Gesicki: There may not be a more frustrating player to rank every week, as it seems Gesicki plays well in the games we least expect, while bombing in the ones we expect explosions. After two weak games with one catch for 15 yards in each of them against teams that struggled with tight ends, Gesicki goes and catches five passes for 91 yards against a 49ers team that had allowed just four tight ends to top 32 yards in their previous 20 games. This matchup is kind of the in-between, as the Jets have allowed the 15th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends, but on a per-target basis, they’ve allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per opportunity. There have been three relevant tight ends they’ve played through five weeks, and they’ve totaled: Jordan Reed 7/50/2, Mo Alie-Cox 3/50/1, and Noah Fant 5/35/0. They were all highly efficient, so as long as Gesicki gets targets, he should produce in a big way. The three targets in both Week 3 and Week 4 are extremely concerning, but let’s not pretend there are many tight ends who don’t have questions. But here’s the thing: Not many of the other ones have the upside that Gesicki does. Start him as a TE1 this week and let’s hope I don’t jinx him.

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Total: 54.0
Line: GB by 2.0

QBs
Aaron Rodgers: Despite getting his bye out of the way, Rodgers currently sits as the No. 6 quarterback in fantasy. His “screw you for forgetting me” tour has taken the league by storm, racking up 13 touchdowns without a single interception. Despite losing his top-two receivers for a lot of time, he’s completed 70.5 percent of passes with 8.7 yards per attempt. The Bucs are going to present a challenge, though. They’ve held 4-of-5 quarterbacks outside the top-20 quarterbacks for the week, with the lone exception being Justin Herbert who continually beat them over the top while throwing for 290 yards on just 25 attempts. It’s worth noting that Rodgers has thrown the ball deep on a league-high 21.6 percent of his pass attempts. It’s also worth noting that the Bucs suffered a massive loss on their defensive line when they lost Vita Vea for the year. He’s been one of the best interior linemen in the NFL over the last three years, and a big cog up the middle. It’ll affect their run defense, but it’ll affect their pass rush as well. They’d pressured the opposing quarterback 38.4 percent of the time (second-highest mark in the league) and sacked them on 8.67 percent of dropbacks (fifth-highest). Rodgers hasn’t been under pressure much through four games and has been sacked just three times. If the Bucs can find a way to pressure him, Rodgers has looked human when that happens, posting just a 68.8 QB Rating under pressure. But if the loss of Vea limits that pass rush, Rodgers will carve them up with his 141.1 QB Rating in a clean pocket. You can’t consider sitting him with the way he’s played, even in what’s been a relatively tough matchup for quarterbacks this year.

Tom Brady: Just one week after his five-touchdown outburst against the Chargers, Brady predictably struggled against a stingy Bears defense. It didn’t help that every one of his wide receivers was either banged up or out for that game. Coming off a 10-day layoff, they should be much healthier coming into this matchup with the Packers. Through five weeks, the Packers have allowed the second-most fantasy points per offensive play to their opponents. The reason they don’t appear to be one of the best matchups overall is due to the lack of plays for their opponents, as they’ve totaled just 58.2 plays per game. Meanwhile, the Bucs have run 64.8 offensive plays per game to this point, so if the Packers lack of efficiency keeps up, there could be some fireworks here. We watched Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, and Drew Brees throw for two touchdowns against them in the first three weeks, but then shut down Matt Ryan without Julio Jones (like everyone has) in Week 4. They’ve still yet to hold a quarterback to less than 7.31 yards per pass attempt, and that includes Ryan. The issue for the Packers defense has been lack of pressure, as they rank dead-last in pressure-rate, but they’ve finished when they get pressure, as their sack-rate is the sixth-highest in the league. Odd, right? When kept clean, Brady has completed 69.7 percent of his passes and thrown for 13 touchdowns on 155 attempts (8.4 percent). This could be a shootout among the two best quarterbacks who’ve ever played the game.

RBs
Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams: The only running back who’s averaged more fantasy points per game than Jones is Alvin Kamara. The concerns about his workload were warranted after they drafted a running back in the second round, but those are long gone now that we’ve watched him get at least 20 opportunities in every game. In terms of weighted opportunity, he ranks as the No. 7 running back in the league, so when you combine that with his insane efficiency, he’s a superstar. The roadblock in his way this week is the Bucs defense that’s been the best in the NFL at limiting running back production since the start of the 2019 season. They’ve allowed a criminally-low 1,118 yards on 385 carries during that time, which amounts to 2.90 yards per carry. That is just stupid. However, there’s a light in this tunnel. The Bucs lost interior lineman Vita Vea for the season just last week, a 350-pound defensive tackle who’s PFF’s No. 2 interior lineman on the season. He’s one of the best run defenders in the game and will create a void up the middle of the field. Not only is that good news, but so is the fact that they’ve allowed the fourth-most receptions (38) and the fourth-most yards (286) to running backs through the air. The matchup has been brutal, but it’s less brutal, and Jones has overcome tough matchups over the last two years. Keep plugging him in as a high-end RB1 every week. As for Williams, he’s quietly received at least six carries in each game, and then saw a massive eight targets in their last game against the Falcons. They were a team who struggles with pass-catching backs as well, so it’s possible we see Williams utilized in that fashion again. There are no guarantees, but he should be looked at as an RB4 this week.

Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette: It was clear that Fournette was just an emergency option for the Bucs last week, as he didn’t see the field. He’ll have 10 days to rest up and get right for this game, but it might be too late as Jones appears to be running away with the job. He’s now racked up 100-plus rushing yards in back-to-back games. In fact, Jones has now totaled 100-plus yards on the ground in three of his last six games dating back to last year. If he doesn’t fumble, he should be locked into 15-plus opportunities moving forward. Running backs have been targeted a very-high 26.3 percent of the time against the Packers, which ranks as the third-highest mark in the NFL. That’s part of the reason that running backs have accounted for 44.8 percent of the skill-position fantasy points scored against the Packers, which ranks as the second-highest mark in football. They are one of just two teams who’ve allowed more production to the running back position than the wide receiver position. The other team? The Panthers. This is a matchup where running backs should succeed, period. It is worth noting that no running back has accumulated more than 58 yards on the ground, though that has more to do with the negative gamescript for opponents, who’ve tried to run the ball just 78 times over their four games. The 4.76 yards per carry they’ve allowed is the ninth-highest mark in football. It’s always a risk starting Jones considering how short his leash is, but considering how well he’s played over the last few weeks, he deserves a longer leash than before. Consider him a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 with some upside. As for Fournette, he’s just a handcuff at this point in time that you can play in a pinch, as he has received 10.3 opportunities per game when he’s not being treated as an emergency option.

WRs
Davante Adams: He’ll be back in the lineup at 100 percent this week after the Packers decided to play it safe before their bye week. Despite playing essentially one-and-a-half games this year, Adams has 20 targets… and that was with Allen Lazard on the field. He’s going to return to his massive role that’s netted 11.0 targets per game over the last two-plus years. The Bucs have Carlton Davis to defend him, a third-year cornerback who’s been up-and-coming, though he’s not someone who’s a must-avoid. On 27 targets in coverage this year, he’s allowed 16 receptions for 171 yards and two touchdowns while intercepting three passes. Still, we’ve watched D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson rack up over 100 yards, then watched Allen Robinson accumulate 10 catches for 90 yards last week. The 71.1 percent completion-rate they’ve allowed to receivers ranks as the third-highest in the league, so we should see Adams rack up the receptions. Get your stud WR1 back in lineups.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Despite playing just four games, Valdes-Scantling has the third-most targets (12) that have gone 20-plus yards in the air. The others who are among the league leaders? Marquise Brown, Calvin Ridley, Allen Robinson, Tyreek Hill, Adam Thielen, and D.K. Metcalf. That’s good territory to be in. While him and Rodgers haven’t connected as much as fantasy managers would like, there’s massive potential here. The Bucs will have Carlton Davis cover Davante Adams, which means it’ll be last year’s third-round pick Jamel Dean covering Valdes-Scantling. Overall, Dean has done a solid job, allowing just a 54.2 percent completion-rate in his coverage and 10.5 yards per reception, but he has allowed a touchdown every 18.0 targets. It’s also worth noting that Dean ran an official 4.30-second 40-yard dash at the Combine last year, so he has the speed to keep up with Valdes-Scantling down the field. Still, the Bucs have allowed nine different receivers who’ve finished as top-45 options against them, which puts him in mid-to-low-end WR4 territory, though one play can pay off.

Mike Evans: He gutted it out on Thursday night, playing through an ankle injury and catching the first touchdown pass the Bears allowed to a receiver on the year. Evans has averaged just 54.2 yards per game on the season, which isn’t great considering Chris Godwin has been out for three of the five games, though the six touchdowns he’s scored has helped mask the lack of yardage. He’s caught a touchdown every 5.8 targets this season, which is the best in the league among those who’ve seen 20-plus targets. While Evans himself has always been a touchdown scorer, his career average is a touchdown every 16.1 targets, and that includes this season. Regression will hit him, so you have to hope his yardage gets an uptick. The Packers are likely to have Jaire Alexander cover Evans most of the time, and he’s the cornerback who did a phenomenal job covering Calvin Ridley in their Week 4 matchup. Through four games this season, Alexander has been money in the bank, allowing just 95 yards on 19 targets in his coverage. He is just 5-foot-10 and 196 pounds, which might be the only issue against the 6-foot-5, 231-pound Evans. In the end, there have been two receivers who’ve seen at least eight targets against the Packers, and both of them tallied at least 16.6 PPR points. With Godwin due back, Evans isn’t guaranteed that volume, but this game projects as somewhat of a shootout, so you don’t want Evans on your bench (not that you ever would).

Chris Godwin: I’m expecting Godwin to return for this game against the Packers after missing the last two games with a hamstring injury, though you should check back later this week to make sure. He’ll return to his slot heavy role against a Packers team that took a risk moving on from Tramon Williams and playing Chandon Sullivan, though it’s worked out so far. Sullivan has seen 13 targets in coverage this season, allowing nine catches for 129 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception. In fact, he’s still yet to allow a touchdown on 56 career targets in coverage. Not bad for a former undrafted free agent. He’s still yet to be truly tested in a full-time role, though. Heck, the Packers team as a whole haven’t been tested against wide receivers, as they’ve faced just 74 targets to wide receivers on the season, which amounts to just 18.5 per game. They’ll be tested much more in this game. They’ve allowed around the league average in fantasy points per target (1.87), so it hasn’t been a smash spot, but it’s also not one to avoid considering the Bucs target their receivers more than most. Godwin should be back in lineups as a borderline WR1.

Scotty Miller: He played through a few injuries last week but was out there for 45 snaps, including 35 pass routes, so it was odd to see him not targeted at all. The target totals for Miller through five weeks have been 6, 3, 5, 7, 0. To be clear, that’s wildly inconsistent and completely unpredictable. The matchup he’ll have this week is against Kevin King, a cornerback who’s been extremely hot-and-cold throughout his three-plus years in the league. He’s allowed just a 58.9 percent catch-rate over his career, but when he gets beat, he gets beat deep. When he does allow a catch, they typically go for a lot of yards, and that’s evidenced by the 15.7 yards per reception he’s allowed, which is massive. Miller has a 16.3-yard average depth of target that ranks as the ninth-highest in the league. You could say this is a matchup that he can win in the places he typically does, but coming off a zero-target game inspires no confidence. He’s a big-play or bust WR5 this week.

TEs
Robert Tonyan: He’s caught a touchdown every 2.8 targets this year. Does that tell you enough? It’s a clear number that will regress (a lot) but the encouraging things is that Tonyan has averaged 12.4 yards per target as well, which ranks second among all tight ends. You might be asking, “Where did Tonyan come from?” Well, he’s been on the roster the last three years as an undrafted free agent. He’s only seen 35 targets, but he’s made the most of them, tallying 27 receptions for 350 yards and seven touchdowns. In short, he’s been good when he gets opportunity. He’s been in on 22-28 pass snaps per game, which isn’t a whole lot. His 23 routes per game have him outside the top-20 tight ends. But we have to assume he’ll be given a larger role with his recent performance, as well as the injury to Allen Lazard freeing up some targets. The Bucs haven’t really been tested heavily against the tight end position this year, as they’ve seen just 31 targets through five games. On those targets, they’ve allowed a healthy 7.71 yards per target and two touchdowns, but the only tight ends who totaled 40-plus yards each saw at least seven targets. With the uncertainty at the tight end position in general, Tonyan will be very popular among streamers. Knowing he’s seen 11 targets in his last two games, it’s hard to argue with that, even if the matchup isn’t pristine. You have to understand the risk, especially with Davante Adams back in the lineup, but Tonyan may have made too big of a mark in Week 4 for the Packers – and Aaron Rodgers – to look away. He’s a low-end TE1 for the time being.

Rob Gronkowski: With O.J. Howard out of the lineup, we saw Gronkowski run 33 routes against the Bears, which is the same mark he had in Week 4. Cameron Brate was out there and ran 20 routes, but it appears Gronkowski has a steady enough role on the team to consider as a streamer. He’s also seen 16 targets over the last three games, though it certainly helped that Chris Godwin was out of the lineup, freeing up some of the overall target share. Tight ends have only averaged a 13.5 percent target share against the Packers, which is the second-lowest mark in the league. They haven’t had an easy schedule, facing Jared Cook, T.J. Hockenson, and Hayden Hurst over their last three games, and none of them were able to top four catches or 62 yards. They’re also one of just four teams who’ve yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end. The catch here is that the Packers have seen just 18 targets to the position, which isn’t nearly enough to make any assumptions. It’s the same scheme as last year, the one that allowed seven different TE1 performances, so it may not be as dire as the new stats suggest. Still, it’s hard to trust Gronkowski and his inconsistent target share with Godwin in the lineup. Gronkowski is moving up my rankings but he’s still stuck in that high-end TE2 territory.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers

Total: 51.0
Line: LAR by 3.5

QBs
Jared Goff: The constant short dump-off passing is going to open up things down the field for this Rams offense and that showed last week when Goff found a wide-open Robert Woods sprinting for a 56-yard touchdown. When Goff is kept clean in the pocket, he has a massive 124.4 QB Rating that ranks as the third-best in the NFL. Can he be kept clean against the 49ers hobbled team? They’ve still generated pressure on 37.5 percent of dropbacks, which ranks fourth-best in the NFL. If they can continue to generate pressure, that’s where Goff struggles, as his 48.5 QB Rating under pressure indicates. It was two different stories against the 49ers last year, as Goff had what might’ve been the worst game of his career in Week 6 when he threw for just 78 yards on 24 pass attempts. He bounced back against a semi-banged up 49ers defense in Week 16 when he completed 27-of-46 passes for 323 yards and two touchdowns. When Ryan Fitzpatrick averaged 12.50 yards per attempt last week, it was just the third time since the start of last year where a quarterback averaged more than 7.40 yards per attempt against them. Are they falling apart? Richard Sherman suffered a setback in his recovery and won’t play in this game. Linebacker Kwon Alexander suffered a high-ankle sprain. Edge rushers Dee Ford and Ezekiel Ansah are on injured reserve, while we already know Nick Bosa is out for the year. It’s hard to see them being a very good defense right now. With the team projected for 27.3 points, this performance should look a lot more like Goff’s second game against them last year. Goff should never be considered a can’t-miss player, but he’s on the high-end QB2 streaming radar this week.

Jimmy Garoppolo: Did he return from his ankle injury too soon? That’s what’ll be tied to his poor performance that got him benched in Week 5, but in reality, he may’ve just had a bad game. It happens to everyone. Unfortunately, that happened at a poor time considering he’s going against what might be the best defense in the league right now. The Rams have been punishing opposing quarterbacks, limiting them to just 6.19 yards per attempt, a 2.76 percent touchdown-rate, and 64.1 percent completion-rate, all while sacking them on 10 percent of dropbacks. Those are all some of the best marks in the NFL. They’ve had a few easy games on their schedule, but they’ve also had games against Josh Allen and Dak Prescott. Defensive coordinator Brandon Staley has done a great job getting the most out of this team in his first year. Outside of a four-touchdown game to Josh Allen, the Rams have allowed just one passing touchdown on 148 passing attempts. Not only are you worried about Garoppolo and whether or not he’s healthy, but you’re worried about the matchup. No, thank you.

RBs
Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown, and Cam Akers: This backfield has been productive, though it’s been difficult to know who is going to go off any given week, especially now that Akers is back in the swing. Take a look at their weighted opportunity by week:

As you can see, there’s been opportunity for the lead back, but it’s shifted from game-to-game. Sean McVay talked about wanting to replicate the 49ers rushing attack, so here, he’ll go against his mentor. The 49ers have dealt with a multitude of injuries – and still are – but they’ve still yet to allow more than 63 yards on the ground to any running back. In fact, they’ve been very good since Week 1. Over their last four games, they’ve allowed just one running back to finish better than RB32, though lack of competition was a real thing with matchups against the Jets, Giants, Eagles, and Dolphins. The one running back who did finish better than that was Myles Gaskin, who posted 20.1 PPR points and finished as the RB8 on the week. Still, there’s been no team of running backs to rush for 90 yards against them through five weeks. They have allowed three running backs to compile 30-plus receiving yards over the last two games, which helps, but again, we don’t know which Rams running back to trust. Henderson would certainly be my choice if picking one, even with that hiccup in Week 4, but it’s tough to say he’s more than an RB3 in a tough matchup. Brown has had what I’d deem the most consistent opportunity but lacks upside with both Henderson and Akers involved. He’s just an emergency RB4. Akers might gain steam, but we haven’t seen him in anything close to the lead role just yet, so just continue to hold as a handcuff.

Raheem Mostert and Jerick McKinnon: Yeah, Mostert has dominated on the ground when he’s given the opportunity, but he’s doing it through the air this year, too. He’s leading all running backs with 3.97 yards per route run, so with Tevin Coleman remaining out, that’s an area of his game we may have undervalued. The part that stinks is that Mostert’s opportunity per game is on par with someone like Antonio Gibson, so we’re continually relying on hyper efficiency. It’s not to say he can’t do it, but it’s risky. The Rams actually played Gibson last week where he totaled 51 yards on 16 touches, so not great. They’ve allowed less than 90 yards rushing to each of the last three teams they’ve played, but when you play Washington, the Giants, and the Bills, it should somewhat be expected that your defense looks decent. Going back to the first two weeks when they played against Ezekiel Elliott and Miles Sanders, both running backs posted top-10 numbers, though both totaled at least 23 touches. The 4.54 yards per carry they’ve allowed ranks as the 13th-highest mark in the league, and again, that’s with three games of what we’d consider weak competition. Knowing the struggles Garoppolo had last week, look for the 49ers to pound the ball and keep their defense as fresh as it can be. Mostert should be played as an RB2 who would get into top-12 territory if the 49ers defense can keep the Rams offense in check. As for McKinnon, his role just flat-out disappeared last week, though 49ers running backs only accounted for 20 touches in that game, something that almost never happens with them. I wouldn’t drop McKinnon just yet, as there’s still likely to be some value as a handcuff. He’s nothing more than an emergency RB4 who should get 6-10 touches here, though.

WRs
Robert Woods: No one has reached the point of panic yet because Woods has scored in three of the last four games, but his 23 targets over that span rank 29th among wide receivers, tied with Michael Gallup and Cole Beasley. It hasn’t helped that Goff hasn’t thrown the ball more than 32 times this year. If the pass attempts rise, Woods’ 20.4 percent target share will be fine. The 49ers secondary is reeling after allowing DeVante Parker and Preston Williams combine for 6/156/2 on just eight targets last week. When you look at the level of competition the 49ers have played, you can see why they haven’t allowed sky-high numbers to receivers, as Kyler Murray, Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, and Carson Wentz have thrown the ball pretty badly over the first five games. Late last year against a semi-banged up 49ers defense (not as bad as it is now), Woods tallied eight catches for 117 yards on 11 targets. With Emmanuel Moseley and Dontae Johnson out last week, the 49ers had to play Brian Allen last week, who proceeded to give up 5/124/1 on six targets. Woods should still be in lineups as a WR2, but we need the pass attempts to rise for him to be any more than that.

Cooper Kupp: He’s now totaled 25 targets over the last three games, while Woods has seen just 18 in that span, so we appear to be back to Kupp being the focal point of the offense, and that makes sense considering Tyler Higbee‘s lack of role. Matchups will dictate how they attack opponents, and knowing K’Waun Williams, the 49ers slot cornerback was sent to IR, it just might be another week where Kupp is featured. Jamar Taylor has taken over that role and he proceeded to allow three catches for 93 yards on just three targets in coverage last week. Taylor has been someone to attack over the course of his seven-plus year career, as he’s allowed 9.49 yards per target and a touchdown every 18.8 targets. When we’re talking over a 300-target sample on seven different teams, it’s fair to say we know exactly who he is. Go ahead and start Kupp as a high-end WR2.

Deebo Samuel: After running just 16 routes in his return to the lineup in Week 4, Samuel was on the field for 36 routes in Week 5, only three behind Aiyuk. He’s back to being a full-time player, and he also saw a team-high eight targets, even though they only amounted to two catches for 25 yards. The matchup against the Rams is a brutal one, as wide receivers have been targeted just 49.2 percent of the time against the Rams, which is the second-lowest mark in the league, and it makes sense when you see what they’ve allowed to them from an efficiency standpoint. Receivers have averaged just 7.47 yards per target (2nd-lowest in NFL), and 1.48 PPR points per target (2nd-lowest). They have also played some very good wide receivers, including Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Stefon Diggs, John Brown, and Terry McLaurin. It seems somewhat unlikely the Rams would have Jalen Ramsey shadow the rookie Aiyuk, which means they either play sides, or they have him shadow Samuel, which presents additional risk. Ramsey has allowed just 4.70 yards per target in his coverage this year, and we’ve still yet to see Samuel produce post-foot surgery. The good news is that Samuel is back in his full-time role, but this is a week to exercise caution as a risky WR4.

Brandon Aiyuk: In the two games with Samuel back in the lineup, Aiyuk has seen 11 targets, so while he’s still involved, this offense really doesn’t support two consistent receivers. He’s totaled just five catches for 62 yards on them, so the efficiency hasn’t been there, either, though his 38-yard touchdown kept his overall numbers up. He’ll see Darious Williams most of the time, a cornerback that has played well above expectations this year, as he’s allowed just 11 catches for 163 yards on 20 targets in coverage while intercepting two passes. He’s only seen 36 targets in coverage over the course of his three-year career, but he’s making the reps count this year in the new defensive scheme. He has speed (4.44-second 40-yard dash) to hang with Aiyuk down the field, too. The 26.4 PPR points per game they’ve allowed to receivers is the lowest mark in the league, and that’s something considering they’ve played the Cowboys and Bills receivers during those five games. Aiyuk is looking like a WR4/5-type option who’ll be volatile. This is not a matchup you should feel the need to attack.

TEs
Tyler Higbee: The pass plays that Higbee has been in on this year continue to be cloudy, as he’s been on the field for 22, 17, 16, 19, and 16 pass plays through five weeks. We even saw Gerald Everett sneak in some production last week, but he was on the field for just eight pass plays, so it’s not like he’s stealing much. In the end, Higbee ranks 30th among tight ends in routes run, which isn’t great. The 49ers had been a dominant defense against tight ends, allowing just four tight ends to top 32 yards against them in their last 20 games, but then slipped up in Week 5 when they allowed Mike Gesicki to rack up five catches and 91 yards on just six targets. Injuries have a serious role in that, I’m sure, as they’re missing their three top edge rushers, top linebacker, and top cornerback. There are question marks on both sides of the ball here, as Higbee hasn’t topped five targets or 54 yards all season, but are the injuries to the 49ers enough to consider him? I wouldn’t say you’re crazy to play him as a high-end TE2, but you now know the risk with his limited routes that only seem to be declining.

George Kittle: After his 15-target, 15-reception blowout in Week 4, Kittle came way back down to earth in Week 5 posting just 4/44/0, though he did see eight targets. The good news for him this week is that tight ends have seen 23.8 percent of the targets against the Rams this year, which ranks as the fifth-highest mark in the league. The bad news is that they’ve allowed a minuscule 4.16 yards per target to them, which ranks as the second-lowest number in the league, and you already know it’s not on a small sample size (sixth-most targets to tight ends). Next step: How was the competition? Blake Jarwin (was hurt), Zach Ertz (5/42/0), Tyler Kroft (4/24/2), Evan Engram (6/35/0), and Logan Thomas (1/4/0). It’s way too small of a sample size with that competition. You’re playing Kittle as an elite TE1 every week, and I’m certainly going to have exposure in tournaments, but there are enough question marks to look another direction in cash.