The Primer: Week 6 Edition (2020 Fantasy Football)

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts

Total: 46.5
Line: IND by 8.0

QBs
Joe Burrow: At some point, I’m expecting the Bengals to invest in some protection for Burrow. They cannot keep going on like this, as he’s been pounded into oblivion. He’s only averaging 2.65 seconds to throw, which is one of the lower marks in football, so it’s not because he’s holding onto the ball too long. Despite the poor line play, Burrow had scored at least 15.1 fantasy points in each of his first four games, but the constant pressure by the Ravens was simply too much. They pressured him on 60 percent of his dropbacks, which was the highest mark of any quarterback in any one game this year. His next matchup, against the Colts, is not an easy one. To this point, the Colts have allowed just 67.1 fantasy points per game to opponents. That’s the combination of quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. Crazy, right? That’s the lowest mark in the NFL while no other team has allowed less than 78.1 points per game. Their opponents are averaging just 57.0 plays per game, which certainly doesn’t help, but the 1.18 fantasy points per play is still the lowest in the league, so it’s not just lack of plays for opposing offenses. The Colts have also intercepted a league-high nine passes. Since they played Gardner Minshew in Week 1, they haven’t allowed a quarterback more than 6.7 yards per attempt, 249 passing yards, or 15.6 fantasy points. I don’t think you should give up on Burrow all together, though. This is the same defensive scheme that allowed six 300-yard passers last year, including eight quarterbacks who posted top-12 numbers. Burrow is far from a lock, but when we’re dealing with small sample sizes, teams can look better than they are. He should be considered to be a middling QB2 who might have more upside than you think.

Philip Rivers: Yikes. Week 5 was a reminder why the Chargers decided to move on from Rivers, as he looked like he had nothing left against a Browns secondary that had been prey for most of the league through four weeks. We might be starting to see why the Colts were hiding him behind the run game and having him throw the ball fewer than 30 times. He’s completed just 59.7 percent of his passes the last two weeks for just 6.98 yards per attempt with one touchdown and two interceptions. That looks bad enough but watching the film is even worse. Some see the Bengals on the schedule and think, “This is a get-right game for Rivers.” Something crazy that maybe nobody expected is that the Bengals have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per play (1.30) this year. Believe it or not, the passing numbers against them are all in the red. They’ve allowed just a 60.5 percent completion-rate (3rd-lowest), 6.68 yards per attempt (6th-lowest), and have allowed a 3.95 percent touchdown-rate (8th-lowest). They’re failing to generate pressure, and that isn’t likely to change against a tough Colts offensive line. Still, there’s no way you can trust Rivers as anything more than a back-end QB2 in Superflex leagues, as he offers no mobility, and there’s zero confidence that he’ll throw multiple touchdown passes (he hasn’t once this year). The floor is simply too low to not have a ceiling.

RBs
Joe Mixon: “Here we go again.” That’s something Mixon managers said last weekend. That’s fine. If you missed the last buy-low window on Mixon, you have another one. What his managers don’t realize is that there’s a major fundamental change in this offense through the last two weeks. Over the first three games, Mixon saw just nine targets while Gio Bernard saw 15 of them. Well, over the last two weeks, Mixon has 14 targets while Bernard has just two of them. Mixon is going to be gamescript-proof if this continues and will eliminate any concern we have about starting him on a weekly basis. Now for the bad news… As mentioned in the Burrow notes, the Colts have allowed just 67.1 fantasy points per game to opponents. That’s the lowest mark in the NFL while no other team has allowed less than 78.1 points per game. More bad news: Running backs have accounted for just 31.8 percent of those points. Add it all up and you have the No. 3 defense in the league against fantasy running backs. Is it a fluke? No. Under Matt Eberflus, the Colts have allowed exactly one running back to break the 100-yard barrier, and that was Derrick Henry when he was on his rampage last year. No running back – including Kareem Hunt with 20 carries and Dalvin Cook with 14 carries – has topped 72 yards on the ground against them this year. Now, to be fair, there were five running backs who were able to post RB1 numbers against the Colts last year. Two of them were Henry, while the other three were Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, and Jaylen Samuels, all running backs who caught at least six passes. The 42.6 points the Colts have allowed on the ground is the fourth-fewest in football, but the 1.59 PPR points per target ranks as the 11th-highest mark in the league. If Mixon is involved in the passing game – as we’ve seen the last two weeks – he’ll be fine as a high-end RB2. If he’s not, this sets up as a disappointing game on the ground.

Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines: Despite not playing up to the level that some of us expected, Taylor currently sits as the RB13 on the season, which is not terrible. He’s averaging just 4.0 yards per carry behind one of the best offensive lines in football, though it’s worth noting that number has gone up the last three weeks, as he’s getting more downhill in his runs. Now onto the Bengals, a team that’s already allowed two top-six performances to running backs, though they both came in the same game (Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt). There has been some bad touchdown luck for running backs against them, but the vitals look good. There’ve been five running backs who’ve hit at least 75 yards on the ground alone against them. The 5.26 yards per carry they’ve allowed is right in Taylor’s wheelhouse, as most of his production has come on the ground. Teams have also averaged a solid 25.0 carries per game against them, so the volume should be there in a game they’re favored by eight points. Taylor should be started as a low-end RB1 in this contest. It’s not as promising for Hines, as just 14.7 of their opponents targets have gone to the running back position, which is the second-lowest mark in the league. That’s smart considering the piddly 3.81 yards per target they’re allowing on them, which ranks as the lowest in the league. Hines is nothing more than a low-upside RB4 option, though he gets a slight bump in PPR formats.

WRs
A.J. Green: His 0.76 PPR points per target rank as the lowest in the NFL among receivers with at least 10 targets. It’s not all that close, either, as the closest player is Chris Hogan at 0.99 PPR points per target. It should come as no surprise, but Green has seen the most targets (34) without a single touchdown this year. He’s now seen 10 targets that have traveled over 20 yards in the air, which ranks eighth in the NFL. The bad news is that Green hasn’t caught any of them. Before you go on a Green rant and why he’s no good anymore, Burrow has completed just 1-of-24 passes that’ve gone 20-plus yards down the field. Green’s definitely a part of the problem, but he’s not the only problem. The matchup with the Colts has not been a good one for receivers despite their lack of above average cornerback talent. They’ve allowed just 7.77 yards per target to wide receivers, which ranks as the fifth-lowest mark in the league. If Green plays (he left last week’s game with a hamstring injury), he’d see Xavier Rhodes in coverage the most, a cornerback who’s trying to make his way back from one of the worst cornerback seasons in recent memory. Through five games with his new team, he’s allowed just 9-of-21 passing for 157 yards and a touchdown. The Colts have already allowed nine wide receivers to hit double-digit PPR days, though just three of them have scored more than 12.8 PPR points. Green is just not playing well right now, so even if you believe he’ll eventually bounce back, you can’t play him until we at least see some sort of flash, and this matchup has been far from a smash spot so far.

Tyler Boyd: We knew last week’s matchup was going to be a tough one for Boyd, who finished with just four catches for 42 yards against the Ravens. Don’t panic, as it was likely the toughest matchup he’ll have all year. The Colts defense has been good against wide receivers as a whole, but they haven’t been untouchable. In fact, three of the top-four performances they’ve allowed to wide receivers this year have gone to those who play in the slot on a regular basis. We watched Keelan Cole finish with 5/47/1, Braxton Berrios 4/64/1, and Jarvis Landry 4/88/0 against them, so while the ceiling doesn’t appear very high, they’ve struggled the most over the middle of the field. Even going back to last year, you’d see they struggled against the slot and allowed 8/123/1 to Keenan Allen, 7/72/1 to Dede Westbrook, and 7/91/0 to Chris Godwin, so it’s not a fluke; it’s the scheme. The six touchdowns the Colts have allowed to wide receivers ranks as the seventh-most, as teams have struggled to run the ball against them. You should be starting Boyd as a WR2 moving forward.

Tee Higgins: Despite not being a full-time player until Week 3, Higgins has seen nine targets that have traveled at least 20 yards in the air. There are just eight receivers with more than him on the season. That’s massive opportunity from a quarterback who’s only going to get better. Unfortunately, he hasn’t caught any of them, and the Colts haven’t allowed any pass plays of 40-plus yards and have allowed just 13 of 20-plus yards, which ranks as the fifth-fewest in the league. Still, there’s reason to get excited for Higgins, as he’s led the Bengals in routes run (107) over the last three weeks and has doubled the targets of A.J. Green (24 to 12). We always knew the Bengals drafted him to be the long-term replacement for Green, but that maturation happened much faster than anyone anticipated. He’ll see Rock Ya-Sin in coverage most of the time, a second-year cornerback who’s struggled at times, as he’s allowed a rather-high 14.7 yards per reception in his coverage on the 70 targets he’s faced. Still, he’s allowed just two touchdowns on them and has been playing well through his three games this year, so it’s not a smash spot or anything. But given Higgins’ opportunity and role on the team, he’s in the WR4 conversation every week and will be startable most weeks. This is not a matchup to get excited about, but knowing he’s pretty much locked into six targets, he can be considered a low-end WR3/high-end WR4, especially if Green is not playing or not at 100 percent.

T.Y. Hilton: The targets have been an issue in this offense, but Hilton himself has been among the most inefficient receivers in football, averaging just 1.32 PPR points per target. By comparison, the Bears are the best team in the league against wide receivers, and they’ve allowed 1.35 PPR points per target. Hilton, A.J. Green, and Julian Edelman are the only receivers with 30-plus targets and no touchdowns. The good news is that Hilton just had his first top-36 week since Week 7 of last year. The bad news is that Philip Rivers looked worse than most expected and the Colts are likely to stick with a very high-volume rushing attack. The sad part is that Hilton has seen a healthy 20.3 percent target share but done nothing with it. We all think the Colts are a tough matchup, right? Well, the Bengals have allowed the same number of fantasy points per target (1.82) to wide receivers as them, which is right around the league average. William Jackson is the cornerback Hilton will see most of the time, and though he never turned into the elite cornerback some thought he might, he’s been a sturdy cornerback, allowing just an 85.5 QB Rating in his coverage over the course of his three-plus years in the league. You really shouldn’t feel pressured to start Hilton considering he’s seen five or less targets in three of their five games this year, so the floor just isn’t there. He’s nothing more than a middling WR4 with a lack of upside.

Zach Pascal: It was a disappointing follow-up to his eight-target game against the Bears, as Pascal saw just two targets in a game where Rivers eclipsed 30 pass attempts. He caught both of them for 15 yards, but there’s no way you can justify starting a receiver who’s seen less than five targets in 4-of-5 games, even if things appeared to be headed in the right direction with Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman out of the lineup. The lone piece of good news is that the Bengals have been without slot cornerback Mackensie Alexander the last two weeks, and he’s no lock to play this week with his hamstring injury. The Bengals have shifted the cornerbacks around and moved Darius Phillips into the slot, which hasn’t been much better for opponents, as he’s allowed just 8-of-17 passing for 136 yards in his coverage this year. We need steadier targets from Pascal before we can trust him in fantasy lineups, and after what we saw from Rivers last week, it’s best to hold off hope.

TEs
Drew Sample: There is nothing consistent about Sample’s usage through five weeks, as his target totals have gone 1, 9, 1, 5, 2. That’s not something you want when picking a streamer. On top of that, he’ll be going against a Colts defense this week who’s been the best in the league at defending tight ends. Through five games, they’ve allowed a measly 30.4 PPR points to them, which amounts to 6.1 PPR points per game. They’ve seen 34 targets, so it’s not that, either. The 0.89 points per target they’ve allowed is nearly 0.30 less than the closest team. Sample is not a recommended streamer in this game.

Trey Burton: I said it last week; Burton might be the tight end to own in this offense moving forward. It’s horrible because he’s still the same ol’ Burton, as his 1.02 PPR points per target ranks as the third-worst mark in football. Meanwhile, Mo Alie-Cox is leading all tight ends with 13.9 yards per target, and the Colts have had him run 16 routes over the last two weeks while Burton has run 35 and Doyle has run 29. It’s a mess for fantasy, but again, the tight end position is as a whole, so we must search for value. It helps to know that tight ends have averaged a massive 27.1 percent target share against the Bengals through five weeks, which ranks as the second-highest mark in the NFL. Because of that, they’ve allowed the seventh-most yards to them through five games. They haven’t had it easy in terms of schedule, as they’ve played against Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, Zach Ertz, and Mark Andrews, all players who can put up fantasy points. Three of them were about to post 12.3-plus PPR points in the matchup, but they all did see at least eight targets, a number that is tough to project when you have a three-way timeshare among tight ends in a run-first offense. Burton is the best choice considering the 11 targets and 35 routes over the last two weeks, but he’s nothing more than a weak TE2 who lacks upside.

Detroit Lions at Jacksonville Jaguars

Total: 54.0
Line: DET by 3.5

QBs
Matthew Stafford: After getting off to a slow start, Stafford has posted over 40 fantasy points in his last two games, which could be due to the return of Kenny Golladay into the lineup. He’s only thrown the ball 95 times over the last three games, but the Lions have now had two weeks to gameplan for this game, which is more than enough to realize they’re a funnel defense. They’ve been much better against the run than most expected, allowing a pedestrian 4.20 yards per carry. Meanwhile, they’ve allowed a league-leading 8.83 yards per attempt to quarterbacks. They’ve only generated a sack on 3.0 percent of dropbacks, which ranks as the second-lowest number in the league, while allowing a massive 75.8 percent completion rate and 6.83 percent touchdown-rate. It also helps to know that the Lions team-implied total is 28.8 points, especially when they’ve scored just three rushing touchdowns through four games. Three quarterbacks have thrown for 300-plus yards against them, including Philip Rivers. No quarterback has averaged less than 7.9 yards per attempt, either. Stafford should present a solid top-15 floor but could present a top-five ceiling if the Jaguars can keep this game semi-competitive.

Gardner Minshew: He hasn’t played exceptional or anything but Minshew has now scored 19.8 or more fantasy points in 4-of-5 games this year, including three 300-yard games over the last four games. What happens when you have the offense who throws the ball a league-high 66.6 percent of the time against a defense that’s allowed 0.57 fantasy points per actual pass attempt (ranks as fifth-most in the league)? Minshew has thrown the ball at least 40 times in every game since Week 1, so you should be excited for him to be playing the Lions this week, a team that’s allowed at least 240 yards and two touchdowns to every quarterback they’ve played despite none of them throwing more than 36 pass attempts. The thing to watch here is the health of D.J. Chark, as the one game Minshew really struggled was the one he was out. Chark suffered an ankle injury in Week 5 and will likely be questionable for this game. This game has the makings of what could be a shootout between two weak pass defenses, which typically amounts to fantasy points. Minshew can be considered a high-end QB2 this week who has a higher ceiling than most in that range, provided Chark plays.

RBs
Adrian Peterson and D’Andre Swift: This backfield continues to be a mess. Based on the fact that targets are worth 2.5 times as much as carries in PPR formats, here’s a breakdown of their weighted opportunity through the first four games:

What are we supposed to take away from that? Peterson clearly has the biggest role – well, most of the time – but he ranks 32nd among running backs in opportunity per game. Did you know Swift actually ranks fourth among running backs with his 2.21 yards per route run? Did the Lions use the bye week to implement more of a role for him in the offense? The matchup with the Jaguars isn’t as great as we thought on the ground, as they’ve allowed a pedestrian 4.20 yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns through five games. The good news for Peterson is that opponents have averaged 24.4 carries per game, so when you know he’s totaled 62.1 percent share of the team’s carries, he should offer a 14-16-carry floor, though his lack of involvement in the passing game moves him down the ranks a tad. He should be considered a low-end RB3 this week who comes with more volatility considering we’re expecting Swift to have a bigger role off the bye week. Running backs have averaged 30.6 touches per game against the Jaguars, so this could be a game where Swift gets 8-10 touches even if Peterson gets 14-16 carries and a few targets. Because of that, Swift should be in the high-end RB4 conversation who has some upside if the Lions decide to shift the focus his way after the bye week.

James Robinson: He’s seen an increased role in the passing game over the last few weeks and it makes sense considering he’s averaging 2.20 yards per route run, which ranks as the fifth-highest number among running backs. The downside to Robinson is the lack of scoring from the offense, as it lowers his weekly floor and ceiling, and that’s why I’ve always talked about the importance of running backs in high-scoring offenses. Still, through five weeks, he ranks 13th among running backs in opportunity, so he’s a play every week with that volume. The Lions have been among the worst run defenses in the league through four games, allowing 5.57 yards per carry. How bad is that? The Panthers allowed 5.32 yards per carry last year. No running back who’s totaled more than five carries has finished with sub-4.0 yards per carry against them this year, including David Montgomery and Kenyan Drake, two running backs who’ve continually struggled in 2020. Overall, the Lions have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per opportunity (0.99) to running backs, so knowing Robinson has totaled at least 17 opportunities in each game, you should shake off the mediocre performance last week and trust him as a high-end RB2 this week.

WRs
Kenny Golladay: Despite Stafford throwing the ball just 62 times over the last two games, Golladay has totaled 15 targets, which amounts to a solid 24.2 percent target share. Now coming off the bye week, he’s as healthy as he’s been all season, and he gets a matchup against one of the worst secondaries in the league. As a whole, the Jaguars have allowed a 70.8 percent completion-rate to wide receivers, the fourth-highest mark in the league. They’ve already allowed nine different wide receivers post double-digit PPR days, but that’s spread out the production where just one receiver has finished better than WR20 against them, and that was Brandin Cooks with his massive 8/161/1 performance last week. If the Jaguars align the same way they did last week, it’d be Sidney Jones matched up with Golladay. While Jones has played well in his two games with the Jaguars, he struggled with the Eagles over the previous three years. Health was a big part of his issues and he is a former second-round pick, so maybe he’s better than the Eagles scheme showed. No matter what, you’re playing Golladay against this defense as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2, as he will also see some of their seventh-round rookie Chris Claybrooks in coverage.

Marvin Jones: Are we nearing the end for Jones, who has now failed to top 55 yards in half of a season, dating back to Week 10 of last year. Targets weren’t the problem, either, as he’s totaled at least five targets in 75 percent of those games, though it’s worth noting he saw just three targets in Week 3 and two targets in Week 4, which is something that didn’t happen last year. Prior to those games, he hadn’t seen fewer than five targets since Week 1 of last year. His role is clearly fading, though he has a great matchup on his hands in Week 6, as he’s typically at RWR, which would put him against rookie Chris Claybrooks or CJ Henderson. We haven’t seen Henderson play since Week 4 when he hurt his shoulder, though if he returned, it would be a downgrade to the matchup for Jones, though it’s not horrible. The combination of Claybrooks and Henderson have allowed 23-of-33 passing for 319 yards and four touchdowns in their coverage, which is pretty horrendous. There have been 11 different receivers who’ve finished as top-50 options against the Jaguars, so Jones’ floor should be safe in the WR4 range, though we can’t say he’s anything more than that given his targets the last two games.

Danny Amendola: It’s frustrating to project Amendola on a weekly basis because he went from someone who saw seven targets in each of the first two games, to someone who saw seven targets in the next two games combined. Sure, Kenny Golladay returned to the lineup, but it was a similar story for Amendola last year. Did you know there were seven games last year where Amendola saw eight-plus targets? The Jaguars moved Tre Herndon into the slot last week and that was horrendous, as he allowed 6-of-7 passing for 75 yards and a touchdown in his coverage. Do they shift the secondary around again in Week 6? Does CJ Henderson come back? There are a lot of factors up in the air, but I suspect Amendola will continue to lose targets to T.J. Hockenson, who’s targeted in a similar area of the field. I can’t confidently recommend Amendola as anything more than a WR5/6.

D.J. Chark: He suffered an ankle injury in Week 5 that caused him to leave the game, though there didn’t appear to be anything severe that would cause him to miss much time. Still, it’s something we need to pay attention to as the week goes on. Wide receivers have seen a massive 62.7 percent target share against the Lions this year, which ranks as the second-highest mark in the league. It’s not just volume, either. They’ve allowed massive efficiency to the position, as highlighted by their 9.20 yards per target, 2.03 PPR points per target, and touchdown every 13.2 targets suggests. Their prized No. 3 overall draft pick has struggled in coverage to this point, allowing 14-of-19 passing for 238 yards in his three games played. The Lions did get veteran Desmond Trufant back before their bye week, but we can’t pretend he’s someone to fear in matchups, as he’s allowed 30-of-43 passing for 471 yards and six touchdowns in his coverage since the start of last year. As long as Chark gets in a full practice at some point this week, he should be in line for a big performance this week. Stay tuned for updates, but as of now, Chark should be in lineups as a low-end WR2 with top-10 upside.

Laviska Shenault: We’ve seen his role in the offense continue to grow as the weeks go on, as evidenced by his target totals: 4, 4, 6, 6, 8. That’s called progression. He’s actually finished as a top-36 wide receiver in 3-of-5 games despite being a rookie and not being heavily involved early on. After hitting 79-plus yards in back-to-back games, he’ll go against a Lions secondary that’s already allowed six top-36 wide receiver performances through four games, which include two receivers who saw just four targets. Efficiency has been sky-high, so if Shenault continues to see his target total rise, he should be in play as a WR3 again this week. The Lions have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to receivers, but that’s due to no quarterback throwing more than 36 times against them. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have thrown the ball 40-plus times in four straight games, so we could see multiple top-30 receivers on this Jaguars team, and Shenault may be the best one if Chark isn’t 100 percent. Shenault belongs on the WR3 radar this week. *Update* He didn’t practice on Wednesday with what’s being described as a hamstring injury, so stay tuned. 

Keelan Cole: He’s still seen at least five targets in every game this year, and he’s still yet to top 58 yards. He has scored touchdowns in three separate games, and should’ve actually had two of them last week, but Minshew overthrew him on the same exact play twice on the final drive. Cole’s role doesn’t change too much with D.J. Chark‘s injury, as he’s playing the slot role regardless. That means he’ll see a lot of Darryl Roberts or Justin Coleman (if he returns off injured reserve) in coverage. Roberts has struggled to defend the slot with Coleman out. He’s allowed just a 50 percent catch-rate, but when he allows a catch, it’s for 14.9 yards and a touchdown on 25 percent of them. Even if Coleman returns, he wasn’t great in this scheme last year, allowing a 107.3 QB Rating in his coverage. Cole would certainly have a higher target floor if Chark were less than 100 percent, but he’s in the WR4 conversation regardless.

TEs
T.J. Hockenson: It’s been somewhat of a maddening season for Hockenson to this point, and it has nothing to do with him. He’s totaled at least 9.3 PPR points in every game, which is solid, but he’s seen five or less targets in 3-of-4 games. Heck, he saw just four targets in their last game while Jesse James saw two. Knowing that Hockenson is averaging 9.0 yards per target, he should be a bigger part of the offense. The Jaguars are the team that’s allowed the most fantasy points per target to tight ends, and it’s not all that close. They’ve allowed 2.90 PPR points per target thanks to a massive 12.6 yards per target to the position, so the four touchdowns they’ve allowed to them is just a bonus. And before you think it could be competition, here’s a list of the tight ends they’ve played this year: Jack Doyle, Jonnu Smith, Mike Gesicki, Drew Sample, and Darren Fells. The matchup is pristine, even if Hockenson’s target share hasn’t been. With all the uncertainty surrounding tight ends in fantasy this year, Hockenson should be trusted as a TE1 this week.

Tyler Eifert and James O’Shaughnessy: We watched Eifert have to leave the game last week with a stinger, but before he left, he accumulated seven targets, which puts him at 22 targets over the last four games, which is a ton for a player of his caliber. Between the two of them, they’ve accounted for 18.9 percent of the Jaguars targets, a high number. The issue, outside of their lack of efficiency (Eifert has averaged just 4.0 yards per target), is the matchup this week. Of the fantasy points the Lions have allowed to skill-position players, just 9.7 percent of production has gone to tight ends, which ranks as the second-lowest mark in the league. They’ve faced a league-low 19 targets to the position through four games but have allowed just 10 receptions for 96 yards on them, though two did go for touchdowns. If Eifert were to miss this game, O’Shaughnessy might be a fine last-minute replacement, but there are likely better options out there.

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers

Total: 43.5
Line: CAR by 3.0

QBs
Nick Foles: There was a lot of talk about how much the Bears pressured Tom Brady, but Foles was under duress more often than the future Hall of Famer. Foles was pressured on 40 percent of his dropbacks last week, so when you combine that with his lack of mobility, there’s a real problem. The Panthers will not be causing that issue, as they’ve generated less pressure than any other defense in the NFL. Their sack-rate backs that up, too, as they’ve sacked the opposing quarterback on just 2.67 percent of their dropbacks, which is a league-low. Still, their defense has been so much better than expected. They’ve allowed a sturdy 68.7 percent completion-rate, which sounds great, but when you see those completions go for an average of just 9.16 yards, you wonder what’s going on. The 6.29 yards per attempt they allow to quarterbacks ranks as the third-lowest mark in the league. They’re allowing offenses dink-and-dunk their way down the field but limiting the big plays. Foles and Mitch Trubisky have combined for one of the higher average depth of targets in the NFL, so this offense hasn’t been the dink-and-dunk type. The best performance against the Panthers this season was Kyler Murray‘s 133-yard, three-touchdown performance in Week 4 where he rushed for 78 yards. Knowing he was the only one to finish better than the QB20 on the week against the Panthers, it’s fair to say this is not a matchup to target with streamers.

Teddy Bridgewater: We had Bridgewater down as a top-10 quarterback play last week and he came through while tossing a couple touchdowns along with 313 yards against the Falcons. Considering the Falcons lack of competitiveness, we’re lucky we got that. It’s going to get a lot tougher for Bridgewater this week, as the Bears defense have been tormenting opposing quarterbacks. As a whole, they’ve allowed just a 57.4 percent completion-rate, which is easily the lowest in the NFL. Despite 4-of-5 quarterbacks racking up 38-plus pass attempts, none of them have finished with more than 16 fantasy points, and none of them have finished inside the top-15 quarterbacks on the week. It’s rare to see in today’s NFL, but the Bears haven’t allowed a quarterback more than 7.07 yards per attempt in any one game this year, and that includes Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, and Matthew Stafford. They also haven’t allowed more than one passing touchdown in a game. The lone piece of good news with Bridgewater is that he played against a similar Bears defense last year when he threw for 281 yards and two touchdowns, though that was with the Saints, and it’s worth noting the Bears were missing the centerpiece of their defense, Akiem Hicks, for that game. Bridgewater is not a recommended streamer in Week 6.

RBs
David Montgomery: He’s now played two games without Tarik Cohen, and in those games, he’s racked up 14 targets. There wasn’t a two-game stretch through Montgomery’s rookie season where he had more than nine targets in a two-game stretch. His 10 carries in each of those two games leaves a lot to be desired, but they were playing the Colts and Bucs in those two games, two of the better run defenses in the NFL. His floor appears to be in the 16-opportunity range, which is something not many running backs can say. It’s fair to say the Panthers are a reverse funnel defense, as they’ve been destroyed by running backs. We’re only through five weeks of football, yet they’ve already allowed four different running backs to post top-three performances against them. This is incredibly hard to do. Keep in mind that Leonard Fournette and Todd Gurley were two of those running backs, and they did it while combining for just 26 carries. Volume has been there, as running backs have totaled 30.6 touches per game against the Panthers, and it helps to know that Montgomery has totaled 30 of the 36 backfield touches (counting Cordarrelle Patterson‘s carries) to Bears running backs since Tarik Cohen went down with a season-ending injury. The issue with fully trusting Montgomery is that the Bears are throwing the ball 63 percent of the time in neutral gamescripts, which is what this game is projected to have most of the time. As a whole, the Bears run the ball just 35.4 percent of the time, which ranks as the fourth-lowest mark in the league. Matt Nagy needs to adjust his approach this week to have success. It does help to know that Montgomery has totaled 14 targets over the last two weeks, while teams have targeted their running backs 27.5 percent of the time against the Panthers, which is the second-highest mark in the league. The Panthers are one of just two teams who’ve allowed more fantasy production to running backs than wide receivers. They’re also looking to be without two of their best players on the front seven, as edge rusher Brian Burns is dealing with a concussion, while defensive tackle Kawaan Short has already been ruled out. Montgomery should post at least high-end RB2 numbers in this game, though it’s far from a guarantee with how the offense is being run. Still, it’s hard not to trust a workhorse running back against the Panthers.

Mike Davis: Over the last three weeks without Christian McCaffrey, Davis has earned the love of many fantasy football managers. He’s compiled 219 yards and a touchdown on the ground while racking up 22 receptions, 132 yards, and two touchdowns through the air. That amounts to 75.1 PPR points, which is more than Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jonathan Taylor, and Miles Sanders have on the season. To be fair, his 16-game pace would be 400.5 PPR points, which would’ve been the No. 2 running back last year, behind McCaffrey. The matchups have been golden, but he has to take advantage of them, so credit to him. This week’s matchup isn’t as easy, as the Bears have allowed just 0.78 PPR points per opportunity to running backs, which ranks as the ninth-lowest mark in the league. They have allowed a rather-high 4.55 yards per carry on the ground, but that’s not really where Davis has made his mark. Through the air is where running backs have truly struggled against the Bears, averaging just 4.65 yards per target and 1.14 PPR points per target (third-lowest mark in the league). This is pretty consistent with Jim Irsay’s defense from last year, as they allowed the sixth-fewest points per target to running backs last year. Going back to the start of last year (21 games), they’ve allowed just two running backs to top 36 receiving yards. Still, Davis’ opportunity is through the roof, as he ranks behind only Alvin Kamara and Ezekiel Elliott in average opportunity this season. You have to keep him in your lineup because of this, but lower expectations into RB2 territory this week.

WRs
Allen Robinson: The Bears have thrown the ball 135 times over the last three weeks, which is a lot, so we’d expect a higher target total for Robinson, but he’s gone above and beyond what’s expected, seeing 39 targets in that stretch. That’s good for a 28.9 percent target share. Even if the Bears lowered their attempts into the mid-30s, Robinson would be netting double-digit targets with that target share. The matchup with the Panthers was supposed to be a cakewalk when we looked at the schedule. So, why is it that they’ve allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers through five weeks? As crazy as this sounds, they’ve allowed the fewest yards per target to the position (7.42). Keep in mind they’ve played against Calvin Ridley, Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, and DeAndre Hopkins. Now with that being said, they’ve been a very top-heavy defense, which means they’ve allowed those alpha wide receivers to eat. Allen, Evans, and Ridley all eclipsed 100 yards while seeing 10-plus targets. It also helps to know that their No. 1 cornerback Donte Jackson had to leave last week’s contest with a toe injury, so he may not play in this game. It’s not that you were worried about him anyway, but it would be an upgrade. Robinson is a matchup nightmare for Rasul Douglas, Troy Pride, and Corn Elder and needs to be in lineups as a WR1.

Anthony Miller: Through five games, Miller has run more than 22 routes just two times. This is not something you can rely on for fantasy football purposes. How can I put this so you can understand… Michael Thomas averaged 2.88 yards per route last year, which led the NFL. If Miller was Thomas-like in efficiency, he would’ve finished with less than 64 yards in three of his games, simply because he’s not running enough routes to be fantasy relevant. Knowing the Panthers have allowed a league-low 7.42 yards per target to wide receivers, it’s safe to say he’s not a fantasy option this week. The Panthers have allowed three wide receivers to finish as top-40 options against them, and each of them saw 10-plus targets, a number Miller hasn’t sniffed.

D.J. Moore: At some point, we have to stop and say, “Is he the No. 1 receiver in this offense?” It’s a new quarterback, new head coach, and new offensive scheme. He saw 22 targets the first two weeks, but that number has dipped dramatically the last three weeks, as he’s failed to top six targets in any of those games. It’s not like he’s completely fallen off the map, as he does have at least 8.5 PPR points in every game, but that’s not what you expected when you drafted him in the fourth round of fantasy drafts. We’ll continue to monitor the situation, but this week it’s going to be tough for him or Anderson to do much against a Bears defense that’s been lights out to this point. Receivers as a whole have averaged just 1.36 PPR points per target, which is easily the best in the NFL, as no other team has allowed less than 1.48 points per target. Despite playing against Calvin Ridley and Mike Evans, they haven’t allowed a top-20 wide receiver performance this year. Moore will match up with the rookie Jaylon Johnson most of the time, and while he’s been good, it’s a better matchup than Kyle Fuller. When you combine Moore’s declining targets with this bad matchup, it’s tough to say he’s anything more than a middling WR3 this week. I’m still of the belief that he’s the best wide receiver on this team but at some point, the results have a big enough sample size to be real.

Robby Anderson: We’re nearly a third of the way through the fantasy season and Robby Anderson is a top-six wide receiver in fantasy football. His 47 targets rank as the sixth-most in football, so it’s not just big plays. In fact, his average depth of target is just 9.4 yards, which is one of the lower marks among non-slot wide receivers. He also has just one touchdown, so it’s not that, either. He’s been consistently getting targets and averaging a massive 10.4 yards per target. He now has 99-plus yards in 4-of-5 games. The Bears are waiting to screw that number up, though. There have been just two receivers who’ve topped 58 yards against the Bears this season, and just one of them was a perimeter wide receiver (it was Calvin Ridley who saw 12 targets, netting 5/110/0). Anderson typically lines up on Kyle Fuller‘s side of the field, a cornerback who’s been on top of his game this year, allowing just 16-of-34 passing for 168 yards and one touchdown in his coverage. He doesn’t do any shadowing, so Anderson will see a mix of Jaylen Johnson and Fuller, but based on their alignment in past weeks, Fuller is the primary defender against him. Overall, the Bears have allowed a league-low 55.2 percent completion-rate to receivers, while allowing just 7.50 yards per target, which ranks as the third-lowest mark in the league. Anderson has earned the right to be a starter in fantasy, but it’s a tough matchup here, so temper expectations into the WR3 range.

Curtis Samuel: He just won’t go away, eh? He now has 13 targets over the last three weeks while also racking up 10 rushing attempts, which amounts to a solid 7.7 opportunities per game. That’s more than enough to consider him for a bye week replacement. Unfortunately, the Bears matchup is a brutal one, as they’ve allowed just three wide receivers to reach double-digit PPR days. This is your reminder that we’re now through five weeks of the NFL season. The good news is that three of the top six wide receivers they’ve allowed this year (which isn’t saying much) have gone to slot-heavy receivers. Both Danny Amendola and Golden Tate caught five passes in the matchup, which is what you have to hope for with Samuel, though it seems somewhat unlikely. He’s just a desperation WR5 who does come with a decent floor considering his usage in the ground game.

TEs
Jimmy Graham: We haven’t had a fantasy relevant Jimmy Graham in a few years, but through five weeks with the Bears, he’s relevant. He’s seeing a 14.1 percent target share in this offense, which is enough to be considered by streamers, especially when you find out that he’s seen 31.3 percent of the Bears’ red zone targets. The Panthers have still yet to allow a tight end more than 50 yards this season, and that’s despite having some solid competition (Darren Waller, Hunter Henry, and Hayden Hurst). The only tight end who’s found the end zone against them was Jordan Thomas, the backup tight end for the Cardinals. Similar to the way they’ve been against wide receivers, this secondary has stepped up and allowed just 4.91 yards per target to tight ends, which ranks as the third-lowest mark in football. They have faced six red zone targets against tight ends (14th-most) but allowed just one touchdown on them, so it’s not like they aren’t being tested, either. Graham has topped 33 yards just once through five games, so he’s been that touchdown-or-bust option despite seeing five-plus targets in 4-of-5 games. He’s just a middling TE2 this week who’ll leave you high and dry if he doesn’t hit paydirt.

Ian Thomas: The Panthers tight ends have combined for 13 targets through five games. There are three tight ends who’ve had more in one game than they have on the season. Thomas has seen two or less targets in 4-of-5 games and hasn’t topped 16 yards in a game. You’re not considering him in any format.

Washington Football Team at New York Giants

Total: 43.0
Line: NYG by 3.0

QBs
Kyle Allen: It was announced that Allen will take the starting job back in Week 6 after being forced to leave for a bit in Week 5. It was Alex Smith‘s moment, so it was nice to see them let him have it. He completed 9-of-13 attempts for 74 yards and included a rushing touchdown in the portion of the game he did play, so it wasn’t disastrous or anything. The Giants are a defense that’s been better than expected against quarterbacks, as they’ve allowed just the fifth-fewest fantasy points to them. A large part of that is due to the lack in competition from the Giants offense, as they’ve allowed a sturdy 7.74 yards per attempt and 70 percent completion-rate. But again, when you’re facing just 32.0 pass attempts per game, there won’t be much production out of quarterbacks. The Washington quarterbacks have averaged just 35.2 pass attempts anyway. After playing against Ben Roethlisberger in Week 1, they’ve held each of the last four quarterbacks they’ve played to fewer than 18 fantasy points and outside the top-15 quarterback options. They’ve also allowed just 2.9 fantasy points on the ground to quarterbacks, which is the second-lowest mark in the league. Allen is just an option in 2QB/Superflex formats.

Daniel Jones: He’s thrown the ball deep just 5.5 percent of the time, the lowest mark in the league, which means he needs to consistently get the ball into his receivers’ hands due to the lack of splash plays. He’s clearly not good enough to do that. It’s odd why they don’t take more shots down the field, as he’s completed 5-of-10 passes for 156 yards and a touchdown on them, good for a 129.2 QB Rating. It certainly doesn’t help that he’s been under pressure on a league-high 43.8 percent of his dropbacks. So, when you know that Washington boasts the fourth-highest sack-rate in the league, it should make you concerned. It’s no surprise that in the games they failed to generate a lot of pressure (Weeks 3 and 4), they allowed Lamar Jackson and Jared Goff to average over 9.0 yards per attempt. If Washington doesn’t get after Jones early and often, their secondary can be exposed, but do the Giants have the guys to take advantage of that? Probably not. After struggling against a soft Cowboys defense, there’s no way you can start Jones confidently.

RBs
Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic: For the second time this year, we saw Gibson out-snap McKissic, though it hasn’t been in back-to-back weeks, so there’s not a clear takeover situation. Still, this is a game that should benefit Gibson’s role as the primary 1-2 down back with some passing duties mixed in, as the game’s spread is very tight. Here are the weighted opportunities by game (PPR format):

Gibson’s role has certainly grown over the last two weeks, but so has McKissic’s with the elimination of Barber from the offense. The Giants have faced an average of 28.4 touches per game to running backs, so there should be enough opportunity for both of these running backs to produce fantasy relevant numbers. They’ve allowed just 3.93 yards per carry on the ground (12th-fewest) but 7.22 yards per target (4th-most), so it could benefit McKissic’s role as the primary pass-catcher (109 routes to Gibson’s 72). But again, in a neutral gamescript, we should see a lot more of Gibson this week, provided they don’t fall behind early. Gibson should be played as a high-end RB3 who might exceed expectations this week, while McKissic is a legitimate flex/RB4 option during bye weeks.

Devonta Freeman: Not many expected much out of Freeman after his debut with the team where he tallied just a couple touches due to not knowing the playbook, but he’s been solid the last two weeks. He’s touched the ball 34 times in those games, and it’s worth noting they’ve fallen behind in both of them, so it’s not been all positive gamescripts or anything. With Washington’s pass rush, they need to relieve some of that with the screen game, which is part of the game where Freeman has proven valuable, catching 6-of-7 targets for 62 yards over the last two weeks. Running backs have averaged 29.4 touches per game against Washington, and though we know the Giants aren’t getting there (they’ve averaged just 21.4 per game), we should see more than normal in a close game, something they haven’t been projected for in some time. Washington has allowed six running back touchdowns (4 rushing, 2 receiving) over the last three games, making Freeman an intriguing high-floor RB3.

WRs
Terry McLaurin: He’s part of a bad offense, plain and simple, but he’s seen at least seven targets in each game and totaled at least 11.1 PPR points in 4-of-5 games. The game last week was a mess weather-wise and he was going against the Rams, who happen to be the best in the league at shutting down wide receivers. The Giants, on the other hand, they have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to wide receivers. There’s no question that they’ll have James Bradberry shadow McLaurin around the field, as he’s their best cornerback who’s shadowed thus far. The results have been somewhat of a mixed-bag, as JuJu Smith-Schuster started with 6/69/2, but then he bounced back limiting Allen Robinson to just 3/33/0, Robert Woods to 6/35/0, and then Amari Cooper to 2/23/0. You’re not going to bench McLaurin regardless, but it’s not as easy of a matchup as some of the other receivers on his team. Treat him a sturdy WR2 who’ll have some down weeks due to his poor situation, but his volume and talent keep him in lineups.

Darius Slayton: He did what we’d hoped last week, turning in 8/129/0 against a weak Cowboys secondary. He’s now seen at least six targets in each of the five games they played, and at least seven targets in the three games that Sterling Shepard has missed. If Shepard comes back this week, we’d have to be more concerned about his target floor. Washington has been better against wide receivers than anyone expected given the lack of talent in the secondary, but their pass rush has helped mask a lot of that. They’ve now allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to the position, behind only the Rams and Bears. Crazy, right? It’s not just lack of volume, either, as they’ve allowed just 1.65 PPR points per target, which ranks as the fifth-lowest mark in the league. Now it is worth noting that when they do allow a catch, it typically goes for a lot of yards, as the 14.07 yards per reception suggests. Slayton has the highest average depth of target on the team at 13.0 yards, so that’s what you’re hoping for; a big play. It is worth noting that even though it was a different scheme, Slayton torched Washington’s new cornerback Ronald Darby last year when they played, racking up 8/154/2 in Week 14. Again, it is a new defense and Darby has played considerably better. Consider Slayton a boom-or-bust high-end WR4 option who either hits or he doesn’t, as I don’t think there’s much of an in-between result here. If Shepard returns, I’d move him into the mid-tier WR4 who has an even lower floor.

Golden Tate: The good news is that Tate has seen at least five targets in every game he’s played. The bad news is that Daniel Jones has struggled and it’s impacted Tate, as his season-high is just five catches for 47 yards. He has caught at least four passes in every game, so he does offer bye week help for those in PPR formats. Washington hasn’t allowed a receiver to post more than 86 yards through five games and have allowed just four receivers to reach 60 yards, so there’s not much of a ceiling in this matchup. The slot cornerback Tate will see most of the day is Jimmy Moreland, who has allowed 13-of-16 passes to be completed in his coverage (81.3 percent) but they’ve only gone for 103 scoreless yards (7.92 yards per reception). Still, with the Washington scheme, there has been a floor of production for slot-heavy receivers, as Larry Fitzgerald posted 7/50/0, Cooper Kupp 5/66/0, Greg Ward 5/31/0, and Jarvis Landry 4/36/0. He’s not a sexy pickup but is one who should deliver at least 8-10 PPR points as a low-end WR4.

Sterling Shepard: He’s eligible to be activated of injured reserve this week, but there’s no guarantee of his return, as they want to see how his toe responds to practice. I’ll update later in the week if he’s expected to play.

TEs
Logan Thomas: He’s averaged a minuscule 0.96 PPR points per target to this point, which ranks as the second-worst in the league only to Chris Herndon. It’s not like we don’t have a big enough sample size, as his 32 targets rank fifth among tight ends. He has just 106 yards. How bad is that? Well, here’s a list of a few tight ends who have more than 106 yards: James O’Shaughnessy, Darren Fells, Drew Sample, and Rob Gronkowski. At some point, you have to admit that volume doesn’t matter with him. Fortunately, you shouldn’t feel too compelled to play him against the Giants, as they’ve still yet to allow 50 yards or more than 8.9 PPR points to a tight end. The 1.29 PPR points per target they’ve allowed ranks as the fourth-lowest mark in the league. Can Kyle Allen bring out something in Thomas we haven’t seen? Maybe, but we should wait to see it before trusting him in lineups.

Evan Engram: He’s the only tight end with more than 22 targets (he has 32) who’s yet to catch a touchdown. Engram criticized the offense this week, saying he’s been asked to run a lot of curls rather than operating down the seam like he used to. Does the squeaky wheel get the grease, or does he get a backhand? Washington has been a team to attack with tight ends, as they’ve already allowed four tight ends to hit double-digit PPR days, including two tight ends hitting 20-plus PPR points (something just three teams have done). It’s a small sample size, but they’ve allowed 2.46 PPR points per target, which ranks as the fourth-most in the league. Engram has run more routes than any tight end not named Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz, so feel free to take a little bit of risk for a potential reward with him as a low-end TE1.