Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns

Total: 47.5
Line: IND by 3.0

QBs
Philip Rivers: Through four weeks, Rivers has fewer fantasy points than Dwayne Haskins. Seriously, that’s not good. He’s also lost two of his top three wide receivers, which didn’t help. He’s now thrown less than 30 pass attempts in three straight games while the Colts defense has straight-up dominated. Both the Colts and the Browns are teams that are running the ball at least 49 percent of the time when there’s a neutral gamescript. This is not good for fantasy numbers. This is also bad considering oddsmakers have this as a close game (just a three-point spread). The Browns have allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks to this point but have also faced a massive 45.5 pass attempts per game. If we just look at the efficiency numbers, they’ve allowed 0.53 fantasy points per actual pass attempt, which ranks 10th in the NFL. Touchdowns have driven that number up a bit, as the Browns have allowed a 6.6 percent touchdown-rate, a number that would’ve ranked as the second-highest in 2019. In the end, we can’t expect a whole lot of volume from Rivers and he offers no rushing upside, which means he’s a very weak QB2 in this matchup.

Baker Mayfield: Similar to the quarterback on the other side of the field, Mayfield has been extremely limited in his opportunity this year. He’s thrown just 76 pass attempts over the last three weeks, or 25.3 per game. As mentioned in Rivers’ notes, both the Colts and the Browns are teams that are running the ball at least 49 percent of the time when there’s a neutral gamescript. This is not good for fantasy numbers. The Colts have allowed a 2019-Patriots-esque 9.48 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this year. As a whole, they’ve allowed just 62.07 fantasy points per game to the combination of quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. The 49ers are the only other team within 15 points of them. A lot of that stems from the fact that their opponents average a league-low 53.2 offensive plays per game. Heck, their games overall are averaging just 118.2 plays per game, which is also the lowest in the NFL. You have to wonder if the Browns drop back to pass a bit more with Nick Chubb out of the lineup, but even if they do, what will it mean in a low-volume game against the team who’s generated a sack on 7.9 percent of dropbacks, which ranks eighth in the league. Mayfield has just a 54.5 QB Rating when under pressure. He’s not a streaming option this week, though I would say he’s a better start than the quarterback on the other sideline in 2QB/Superflex formats.

RBs
Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines: I’ve been hard on Taylor to this point, as I don’t think he’s creating a whole lot on his runs but rather getting what’s blocked, and sometimes not even that. It surely doesn’t help that he’s seen eight-man defensive fronts on 32.3 percent of his runs, which ranks as the second-most in the league among running backs who’ve seen at least 30 carries. Not only are running backs averaging a healthy 0.95 PPR points per opportunity against the Browns, but they’re also averaging 71.8 plays per game as a team. When you get those stars aligned with a high-volume rushing attack, it could amount to big things. It also helps that interior lineman Sheldon Richardson and Larry Ogunjobi both left the game last week with injuries (Ogunjobi has been ruled OUT). With those players on the field, they’ve still allowed a touchdown every 17.2 carries to this point. Taylor should net 18-plus touches in this game and be played as a middling RB1 who might finally live up to his expectations. After an odd Week 2 where he saw just one touch, we’re back on track with Hines in his role that’s netting 12-15 opportunities. The Browns have allowed a healthy 7.10 yards per target to running backs, but we’d need Rivers to actually throw the ball to take advantage of that. Hines should be considered a decent last-minute replacement at RB4/flex who should at least provide an 8-12 touch floor.

Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson: Based on where he’s been contacted at/around the line of scrimmage and the eight-man fronts he’s seen (30.0 percent of the time), Hunt should’ve been expected to average just 3.3 yards per carry rather than the 5.5 yards per carry he has. He’s leading NFL’s NextGenStats with 64.0 percent rushing over expected. There wasn’t a massive talent gap between him and Nick Chubb, so it’s difficult to see this remaining the same timeshare it was before Chubb was injured. Sure, they gave Johnson 13 carries last week, but they were winning in a blowout and Hunt had missed practice almost the entire week with a groin injury, so why push it? Onto Week 5 to play the Colts, who have allowed just one running back touchdown on 86 touches through four games this season. They’ve allowed just 0.69 PPR points per opportunity, which ranks as the fourth-lowest mark in the league, so when you combine that with the fact that their opponents average a league-low 53.2 plays per game, it’s a recipe for disaster for most running backs. I’ve mentioned it before, but it should be repeated: The Colts have played 36 regular season games under Matt Eberflus but have allowed just one 100-yard rusher, and that was Derrick Henry when he was on his rampage last year. They’ve allowed just five rushing touchdowns over their last 20 games. Hunt is the only one who should be considered a solid start this week, and even he may not live up to the sky-high expectations we have for him over the next two months. But given his new role and the 18-plus touches he should receive, you’re starting him as a low-end RB1. Johnson should be considered nothing more than a mediocre RB4 this week. *Update* The Colts have multiple linebackers on the injury report, which could impact their ability to stop the run. Their best one, Darius Leonard, has been ruled OUT. 

WRs
T.Y. Hilton: Thanks to my friend JJ Zachariason, here are Hilton’s fantasy finishes over his last nine games (most recent last): 58, 64, 58, 61, 38, 50, 87, 56, and 76. That’s… not good. We do want to latch onto the fact that he’s the No. 1 receiver in this offense, but what does that really mean you’re your team is averaging just 30.3 pass attempts per game, and your target share is just 18.1 percent? We need more pass attempts and a higher target share for him to produce. Receivers have averaged a healthy 27.0 targets per game against the Browns, which ranks as the second-most in the league, but quarterbacks have also averaged a massive 45.5 pass attempts per game. It is worth noting that Hilton got loose behind the Bears secondary for what would’ve been a long touchdown, but Kyle Fuller opted to take a pass interference and hold him rather than allow the touchdown. Hilton moves back-and-forth on both sides of the formation, so he’ll see a mix of both Denzel Ward and Terrance Mitchell. As a whole, the Browns have allowed the second-most fantasy points to receivers, but volume is the reason, as they’ve allowed the 17th-most PPR points per target to them. Receivers have actually seen 20 targets against them in the red zone while no other team has seen more than 13 of them. You can’t say he’s a lock for much of anything, so we have to keep him in WR4 territory until he gets back on track. It helps to know that seven receivers have already finished as top-38 options against the Browns, but again, volume is the disconnect here.

Zach Pascal: With both Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell out of the lineup, Pascal saw a big boost in targets last week, racking up eight of them against the Bears. They only turned into three catches for 58 yards against one of the best pass defenses, but the opportunity was clearly there. He’s run 67 percent of his routes in the slot over the last two weeks, so that’s where we’ll project him moving forward. The Browns have faced four slot-heavy receivers to this point: Willie Snead (4/64/1 on four targets), Tyler Boyd (7/72/1 on eight targets), Isaiah Wright (4/24/0 on six targets), and CeeDee Lamb (5/79/2 on seven targets). It’s clear they’re having an issue with that position. That’s because Tavierre Thomas has allowed 19-of-22 passing for 160 yards and a touchdown in his coverage in the slot alone, which ranks as the sixth-most yards among cornerbacks. Pascal is never going to be a sexy play but his role this week might be the most valuable on the team. Consider him a WR4 who might outscore Hilton.

Odell Beckham: We aren’t going to get massive performances out of Beckham very often considering the Browns have thrown the ball just 76 times over the last three weeks. The good news is that when they do pass, Beckham is getting most of the opportunity, as his 45.3 percent targeted air yards suggest, which ranks as the second-highest mark in the league. The Colts are a team that stops the run extremely well, which could lead to more pass attempts for Mayfield. It’s going to be a mix of the cornerbacks but Beckham should see more of Xavier Rhodes than anyone else. He’s someone who used to be considered a shutdown cornerback, though that was the opposite of the truth in 2019 when he allowed an 83.5 percent completion-rate in his coverage and 10.41 yards per target. He was someone we targeted over and over again. This year, he’s been better on a per-target basis, but looking at the competition, you can’t take too much from it. He’s played against the Jaguars, Vikings, Jets, and Bears receivers. Despite the lackluster competition, the Colts have allowed 1.86 PPR points per target, which is essentially the league average. Beckham is far superior to him and if Mayfield gets time, we could see another big game from him. You should be willing to start Beckham as an upside WR2 this week.

Jarvis Landry: The good news is that Landry has caught 89.5 percent of the targets that have come his way this year. The bad news is that he’s seen just 19 targets through four weeks and hasn’t topped six targets in a game. Fortunately, you got a passing touchdown out of him last week to get him up to the No. 24 receiver in a plus matchup against the Cowboys. With the pass rush that the Colts bring, some teams have taken advantage of their slot receivers on short-intermediate routes. Keelan Cole totaled 5/47/1, Justin Jefferson 3/44/0, and Braxton Berrios 4/64/1, though none of them saw more than five targets. It’s Kenny Moore defending the slot for them, a former undrafted free agent who has played competently over the last three-plus years, allowing an 82.3 QB Rating over that span. He’s allowed a rather-high 73.0 percent catch-rate, but has kept the play in front of him while allowing just 9.7 yards per reception. It feels like a fine matchup for Landry, though the lack of big-play upside and lack of targets leave him in the low-end WR3/high-end WR4 territory.

TEs
Mo Alie-Cox, Trey Burton, and Jack Doyle: Among tight ends with 10-plus targets, Alie-Cox is the No. 1 tight end in yards per route run at 4.04, while the closest to him is George Kittle at 2.99 yards per route run. That’s great, right? Well, yeah, but there’s a problem. Here are the routes run for Colts tight ends last week: Trey Burton 17, Doyle 13, and Alie-Cox 7. WHY? On the season, here are Alie-Cox’s routes: 18, 16, 7, 7. That’s right, in Burton’s first game as a Colts tight end, he essentially ran just as many routes in a game as Alie-Cox has. Ugh. Burton also saw five targets in his first game while Alie-Cox has five over the last two weeks combined. This is clearly a mess. The Browns have faced the second-most targets (41) to tight ends, allowed the sixth-most yards (275), and the fifth-most touchdowns (5). There have already been four different tight ends who’ve scored 11.5 or more PPR points against them, but every one of them saw at least six targets. We can’t guarantee that between these three. Heck, we can’t even guarantee Alie-Cox will run six routes. Based on what we saw last week, Burton might be the tight end to roster moving forward, though Alie-Cox is the one who’s been the best. It really stinks to say in a great matchup but avoid them until we have a clearer picture.

Austin Hooper: We talked about Hooper being a solid play last week against the Cowboys and it worked out, as he was targeted a season-high seven times and turned them into 5/34/1. Don’t go thinking last week’s performance will carry over to this week, though. The Colts have been absolutely ridiculous against tight ends a quarter through the season, as they’ve allowed just 0.82 PPR points per target to them. That’s the lowest in the league. Remember, we’re now one-quarter the way through the football season, and the Colts have allowed 11 receptions for 71 yards to tight ends. Hooper has still seen just 10 targets in the other three games combined and it seems like David Njoku will be reactivated this week. Hooper is someone you may be able to stream in good matchups or when the Browns are supposed to be in a shootout, but this game is the opposite of that.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks

Total: 57.5
Line: SEA by 7.0

QBs
Kirk Cousins: We’ve known Cousins to be a game manager type quarterback through much of his career, but that’s not the case to this point in 2020. His average depth of target is 11.0 yards, which ranks as the highest mark among quarterbacks who’ve started multiple games. The Seahawks defense has already faced a massive 200 pass attempts through four games this season. Lack of plays have been an issue for the Vikings as they’ve ran a league-low 55.8 offensive plays per game, but that shouldn’t be an issue against the Seahawks, who’ve allowed their opponents a league-leading 73.8 plays per game. You can now see how they’ve faced 50.0 pass attempts per game. No quarterback has walked out of a game against them with less than 44 pass attempts, and none of them have averaged less than 7.0 yards per attempt. The Seahawks aren’t getting pressure on the quarterback, as they rank as the third-worst in the league in pressure rate and sack rate. This will be good for Cousins, who has been pressured on 41.4 percent of his dropbacks this year, the most in the league. Oddly enough, the Seahawks have allowed just the eighth-fewest fantasy points per actual pass attempt, which is due to the minuscule 3.0 percent touchdown-rate, which could fluctuate. Still, Cousins should be able to deliver at least high-end QB2 numbers in this game and be a rock-solid streamer.

Russell Wilson: He didn’t look completely “on” last week but still managed to throw for 360 yards and two touchdowns against the Dolphins. He’s now thrown 16 touchdowns over four games, which puts him on a record-pace of 64 touchdowns. Keep in mind that he also offers some fantasy points with his legs, though you shouldn’t expect anything with them this week. Over the last two years, the Vikings have allowed just 11.3 fantasy points on the ground to quarterbacks. No other team in the league has allowed fewer than 18.8 of them. We shouldn’t expect Wilson to rush for many yards in this game. He shouldn’t need to, either. The Vikings pass rush has been getting slightly better, but they still rank as the sixth-worst team when it comes to pressuring the quarterback. That has allowed quarterbacks to dissect them, averaging a massive 8.63 yards per attempt, which ranks as the second-most. What happens when you combine that with Wilson’s 9.4 yards per attempt? Fireworks. You should be starting him as an elite QB1.

RBs
Dalvin Cook: As we talked about here last week, the way the two teams aligned last week, it all pointed towards a massive game for Cook. He didn’t disappoint, totaling 146 yards and two touchdowns. This week’s game doesn’t align the same way, as just 19.2 percent of the fantasy production that the Seahawks have allowed has gone to the running back position, which is a league-low, as no other team has allowed less than 21.9 percent of production to go to them. The Seahawks are a funnel defense. The 2.94 yards per carry is certainly worrisome, but that’s not the only detriment to running backs, as they’ve averaged just 3.63 yards per target as well. The 1.05 PPR points per target they’ve allowed to running backs ranks as the lowest mark in the league. No team of running backs have totaled more than 72 yards through their four games, which included a game against Ezekiel Elliott when he tallied just 34 yards on 14 carries. You’re never going to bench Cook when he’s active in redraft leagues, but this is not a week I’d make it a point to spend up for him in DFS cash lineups.

Chris Carson: It was pretty remarkable to see Carson make it back from his knee sprain in just a few days’ time. He then had to get checked for a concussion during that game but ultimately came back and finished with 100 total yards and two touchdowns. Not too shabby. Now onto a matchup with the Vikings, who have already allowed three different running backs to finish as top-14 options against them, while even David Johnson was able to churn out the RB23 performance last week. Outside of the Texans, each opponent’s running backs totaled at least 144 total yards and one touchdown, so the floor is set for Carson, who’s been responsible for 350 of the 507 total yards by Seahawks running backs, as well as five of the seven touchdowns. The Vikings have so much to worry about on the back end of their defense that they can’t be overly concerned with Carson. What the Vikings have done well is limited the production of running backs in the passing game, as they’ve allowed a tiny 4.64 yards per target, which is nearly as much as the 4.38 yards per carry they allow. But again, when running backs are averaging 33.3 touches per game, they’re going to rack up fantasy points. Carson should be started as a low-end RB1 for this contest.

WRs
Adam Thielen: Now a quarter through the regular season, Thielen has seen 49.1 percent of the Vikings air yards, which is more than any other receiver in the league. That’s not a sustainable number, as the league leader in 2019 was Courtland Sutton, who saw 42.9 percent of the Broncos air yards. Still, it shows the opportunity Thielen has with Stefon Diggs gone. Wide receivers have been targeted 135 times against the Seahawks through four games. That’s more times than 15 other teams have seen to all positions combined. It’s not just volume, either. They’ve allowed a league-leading 71.4 percent of the production through the air to wide receivers, which skies above the 61.0 percent by the team in second place. They have already allowed seven top-12 performances to wide receivers. I cannot tell you how difficult that is to do through four games. Keep in mind that there are another four receivers who finished as top-42 options. This is a game you start Thielen wherever you can as a WR1 with massive upside.

Justin Jefferson: Through four weeks, Jefferson leads the league in yards per route run (3.70). He’s now in a full-time role and it’s leading to fantasy points. It is worth noting that there’ll be some regression to his yards after the catch. Based on his separation at target, NFL’s NextGenStats suggest that he should be averaging around 4.5 yards after the catch, but he’s managed to average 8.1 yards to this point. He could very well be above average, but that’s the second-largest gap in the league with that particular stat. The Seahawks have allowed 336.3 yards per game… to wide receivers alone. I’m not making that up. You can go and double-check it. The volume is obviously there (135 targets), and so is the efficiency (9.96 yards per target). The 258.5 PPR points they’ve allowed to receivers is nearly 60 points more than any other team has allowed. It’s why we’ve already seen nine different receivers score 15-plus PPR points against them and finish as top-25 options. I can’t even begin to describe how ridiculous that is. Even if Thielen and Jefferson both finished top-25 this week, it would be an improvement on what they’ve allowed to this point. Digging even deeper, they’ve allowed 10 receivers to total 65-plus yards, which is great for projecting Jefferson’s floor. You could make the case for him to be played as a top-24 receiver this week.

D.K. Metcalf: We’re now one-quarter through the 2020 NFL season and Metcalf is a top-eight wide receiver. He’s currently on pace for 64 receptions for 1,606 yards and 12 touchdowns. Sheesh. His 403 receiving yards are tied with Stefon Diggs for the most in the league. In fact, he hasn’t finished a game with less than 92 yards. The odd part is that he’s caught just four passes in each game, and that’s the only concerning part because he won’t keep up his 25.2 yards per reception. With that being said, this week is one for him to remain highly efficient. The Vikings have allowed a massive 2.23 PPR points per target to wide receivers on the season, which ranks as the third-most in the league. He’ll see a mix of Holton Hill and rookie Cameron Dantzler in coverage, a duo that’s allowed 25-of-37 passing for 345 yards and three touchdowns in their coverage, and Dantzler has only played two of the four games. Through four games, the Vikings have allowed 19 passing plays that have gone longer than 20 yards, which ranks as the third-most in the league. Metcalf should be started as a low-end WR1 who just might have his biggest game yet.

Tyler Lockett: It was a big letdown out of Lockett last week when he finished with just two catches for 39 yards against the Dolphins. He only had four targets, but don’t let that spook you. He’d seen at least eight targets in each of the first three games, and receivers have averaged 20.0 targets, 204.0 yards, and 1.75 touchdowns per game against the Seahawks. That all adds up to the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position. We all know Lockett is highly efficient with his targets, and it just so happens that the Vikings are highly inefficient, allowing the third-most fantasy points per target to receivers. Their slot cornerback Mike Hughes has been out since Week 2 and may return this week, though he wasn’t particularly good before he was hurt. In his place, the Vikings have inserted rookie Jeff Gladney into his place, and he’s allowed 16-of-25 passing for 263 yards and a touchdown. This is not a matchup to fear. Start Lockett as a WR1 and expect a bounce-back performance.

TEs
Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr: What do you do when no one on the team has seen more than four targets since back in Week 13 of last year? If you’ve been here before, you already know the answer. You avoid them whenever possible. Not just that, but they’re heading into a matchup with the Seahawks, who’ve done a much better job with tight ends this year, holding them to just 1.48 PPR points per target, a number that ranks as the eighth-lowest in the league. Keep in mind that they’ve played against Hayden Hurst, Dalton Schultz, and Mike Gesicki in three of their four games, so the competition wasn’t light. In fact, just 11.5 percent of the fantasy production the Seahawks have allowed has gone to tight ends, which is the lowest mark in the league, while the next closest team is at 13.5 percent. Don’t take your chances on these touchdown-or-bust options.

Greg Olsen and Will Dissly: We’re now four weeks into the season and Olsen still has a large gap on the routes run over Dissly. In Week 4, Olsen ran 22 routes while Dissly ran just nine of them. On the season, the tally is Olsen 103, Dissly 39, and Jacob Hollister 22. Olsen has been competent outside of the one Week 2 game, racking up five receptions in each of the last two games. He’s now finished as a top-16 tight end in three of four games, giving him streaming appeal. The Vikings were one of the best teams in the league against tight ends last year, but they’ve struggled a bit in 2020. They haven’t allowed a touchdown to them, keeping their overall numbers down, but the 75 percent completion-rate, and 14.83 yards per reception are both massive. It’s amounted to 11.13 yards per target, the third-highest mark in the league. Over their last three games, they’ve allowed 5/111/0 to Mo Alie-Cox, 5/61/0 to Jonnu Smith, and then 3/46/0 to Jordan Akins in a half of a game (left with concussion). If you wanted to stream Olsen as a high-end TE2, you shouldn’t let anyone talk you out of it.

Los Angeles Chargers at New Orleans Saints

Total: 51.5
Line: NO by 8.0

QBs
Justin Herbert: We may not know who the starter is for the Chargers until later in the week, but for now, I’ll assume it’s Herbert. He’s continued the hot start to his career, racking up 290-plus passing yards in each of the three games, and then a career-high three touchdowns against the Bucs last week. Still, Anthony Lynn has been pretty adamant that Tyrod Taylor will be the starter when healthy, citing the 0-3 record under Herbert as the reason why. The Saints are tied with the Giants for having allowed 11 passing touchdowns on 137 pass attempts, which amounts to a league-leading 8.03 percent touchdown rate, not something we thought we’d say as the Saints were one of the best defenses on paper coming into the season. They were without their top two cornerbacks Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins last week against the Lions, which certainly didn’t help matters, but they weren’t playing well with them on the field. Despite no quarterback topping 283 passing yards against them, they’ve allowed each of the first four quarterbacks they’ve played to score 20-plus fantasy points and finish as a top-14 quarterback. The 7.39 yards per attempt they’ve allowed is actually below the league average, so we should see their numbers even out once the touchdown-rate lowers. But still, we saw Herbert just have a 23-point game against a Bucs secondary that hadn’t allowed a quarterback to hit that number since Week 10 of last year. It’s tough to trust Herbert given the uncertainty around Taylor right now, but I’ll update as the week goes on. If Taylor is ruled out, Herbert can be considered a mid-tier QB2 with upside if the Saints keep struggling in the red zone. *Update* Herbert has been named the starter moving forward.

Drew Brees: After playing a game against the hopeless Lions secondary, Brees’ air yards per target is up to 5.8 yards, which is still tied for the lowest in the NFL. He averaged 9.5 air yards per target in that Week 4 game which is a step in the right direction. Maybe he missed the offseason workouts and preseason games more than we thought? He should be getting Michael Thomas back this week, though that’s no guarantee when their bye is in Week 6, right after this game. Despite allowing a pedestrian 7.00 yards per attempt, the Chargers have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks through four weeks. Volume has obviously been important to opposing quarterbacks, as they’ve averaged 39.3 pass attempts per game. The Chargers have also allowed over 100 yards and a touchdown on the ground to quarterbacks, so if we remove that (Brees doesn’t run), they move down to allowing the seventh-most points, which is still a lot. The injuries to Derwin James and Chris Harris Jr. have made this secondary much more beatable. They’ve oddly struggled with their pass rush as well, as their 3.68 percent sack-rate suggests. That’s the sixth-lowest mark in the league. When kept clean, Brees has a 115.6 QB Rating this year. Not knowing if Thomas will play, it’s best to keep Brees in the high-end QB2 range rather than moving him up into the top-12 quarterbacks on the week. If Thomas does play, it obviously gives Brees a nice boost.

RBs
Joshua Kelley and Justin Jackson: With Austin Ekeler out for a while, it’ll be Kelley and Jackson fighting for opportunity. Based on NFL’s NextGenStats, Kelley has underperformed based on how many defenders have been in the box and where he’s been contacted at/near the line of scrimmage. He’s been the third-worst running back in terms of rushing over expectation. Jackson is someone who has played a third-down role on this team before, as he had 10 targets back in Week 16 of 2018. Even going back to his Northwestern days, Jackson was a three-down back, so there’s a possibility that they have him take on most of Ekeler’s role, though it will be split. Kelley will certainly get the first opportunity, though he’s probably going to struggle against this Saints run defense that has allowed just 1,378 yards on 381 carries (3.62 yards per carry) over their last 20 games with just 10 touchdowns. That amounts to just 68.9 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game on the ground with more than a season’s-worth of sample size. There have been just five running backs who’ve totaled more than 16 PPR points against them in those 20 games. Four of them hauled six or more receptions, something we can’t assume out of this backfield, and the one who didn’t record those six receptions scored twice, which again seems very unlikely. Kelley should be considered a high-end RB3 this week in a brutal matchup. Jackson is not a recommended start this week, but rather someone you stash on your bench, hoping he’s thrust into a bigger role in the passing game.

Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray: Is Kamara the best running back in the league? He continually makes everything look so easy, almost like everyone else is playing in slow motion. While Christian McCaffrey would likely have something to say about that, those two are the cream of the crop. The Chargers are the only team in the league who’s still yet to allow a rushing touchdown to a running back. Will that change this week? They’ve allowed a healthy 4.32 yards per carry, so it’s not like teams can’t run the ball against them, but they just haven’t gone across that goal line just yet. The Chargers are one of just three teams who’ve actually allowed fewer yards per target than they have yards per carry to running backs. The 3.95 yards per target is quite impressive, but they have allowed 56.4 PPR points through the air to running backs, which ranks as the ninth-most in the league. Volume has been big, as teams have funneled targets to the running backs 24.8 percent of the time, which is the fifth-most in the league. Knowing the Saints have targeted their running backs 34.6 percent of the time, this is a match made in heaven for PPR leaguers, even if the running backs have lacked yards. You’re going to start Kamara regardless of matchup, and he should be worth the start in Showdown slates considering his pass-game usage. Murray has just six fewer carries than Kamara on the year and the Saints are big home favorites, but if he doesn’t score, he’s going to be a bust. The Chargers haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown yet, but their vitals show that you can run the ball against them if you want to. Murray remains a touchdown-heavy RB3/4 option.

WRs
Keenan Allen: If we knew Allen were going to have Justin Herbert under center for the rest of the year, he would be regarded as a low-end WR1 in fantasy. Unfortunately, Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn has been adamant about Tyrod Taylor being the starter once he’s ready due to “wins” being the most important stat. That puts Allen in a weird spot because he’s clearly been Herbert’s favorite target through three games, racking up 41 targets. Only three other wide receivers have that many targets on the entire season. The matchup this week isn’t an easy one, however. Wide receivers have seen just 42.3 percent of the targets thrown against the Saints, which is the lowest in the league. Everyone else in the league is above 50 percent. The efficiency hasn’t been great, either. They’ve allowed a league-low 37.6 percent of the fantasy points through the air go to wide receivers. Through four games, they’re allowing an average of just 8.0 receptions per game to wide receivers, which is the lowest in the league. The positive is that two of the three biggest performances they’ve allowed this year have gone to slot-heavy receivers, as both Allen Lazard (6/146/1) and Chris Godwin (6/79/0) posted top-30 numbers. Continue trotting Allen out there as a target monster for the Chargers, though we’d have to lower the expectations a bit if Taylor were back. *Update* Herbert is the starter moving forward, making Allen a rock-solid WR2, at worst. 

Mike Williams: We won’t be sure of Williams’ status until later this week, and we also won’t know about Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins until then, either. There are so many variables here, it’s tough to project much right now. It is worth noting that when the Saints do allow a completion to wide receivers, it’s typically for a lot of yards, as their 15.47 yards per reception indicates. The downside is that they’ve allowed just 36 receptions to receivers, which is the lowest in the NFL. I’ll come back later in the week to give a status update on Williams and the cornerbacks.

Michael Thomas: My best guess for Thomas would be that he’s held out of this game. The Saints have said all along that they’re in it for the long haul this year, so knowing they have their bye next week, it’s likely they take the safe approach. If anything changes as the week goes on, I’ll come back and update.

Emmanuel Sanders: If you look at Sanders and Tre’Quan Smith‘s numbers side-by-side, you might be blown away. Sanders has 14/182/2 while Smith has 14/186/2. Sanders role grew quite a bit last week, as he was targeted a team-high nine times against the Lions. Since Michael Thomas left the lineup, Sanders has played just 31.9 percent of his snaps in the slot, which isn’t ideal because he’s likely to see the most of Casey Hayward on the perimeter. Hayward is the lone bright spot in that secondary right now, as he’s allowed just a 50 percent catch-rate in his coverage, and though he’s allowed 14.8 yards per reception on those catches, Sanders’ role doesn’t go downfield very often. He’s been targeted just twice over 20 yards down the field, catching one of them. Hayward doesn’t travel into the slot, so Sanders will get away from him at times, too. Given his increase in production and opportunity over the last two weeks, Sanders is in the WR4 conversation.

Tre’Quan Smith: I mentioned this in the notes above, but if you look at Emmanuel Sanders and Smith’s numbers side-by-side, you might be blown away. Sanders has 14/182/2 while Smith has 14/186/2. Sanders has four more targets, but Smith is slightly ahead in production after his 54-yard, two-touchdown game against the Lions. Smith is playing in the slot just over 40 percent of the time, which is helpful because that helps him avoid Casey Hayward, the one Chargers cornerback worth worrying about. The Chargers have allowed the 18th-most fantasy points to the receiver position, though volume has helped, as they’ve faced the 10th-most wide receiver targets.

I posted this chart back when Michael Thomas was originally hurt and said that Smith could surprise in a bigger role. Those are the games he’s seen three or more targets in his career. If the volume is there, he typically does well. You could do worse as a last-minute WR4/5 replacement, but only if Thomas doesn’t play.

TEs
Hunter Henry: Things had been going well for Henry this year, though Week 4 was certainly a hiccup when he saw just three of Herbert’s 25 pass attempts, netting just two catches for 39 yards. We can’t expect that low volume again, as quarterbacks have averaged 34.3 pass attempts against the Saints. A massive 32.1 percent of those targets against the Saints have gone to the tight end position, while no other team in the league has faced higher than 26.4 percent. This is because of the cornerback duo the team has on the perimeter, though they were out last week. Henry will see a lot of Malcolm Jenkins in coverage, who was one of the best cover safeties in the game while with the Eagles, but has really struggled to start 2020, allowing 12-of-19 passing for 130 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage. The Saints as a whole have allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends, though the 7.50 yards per target ranks 11th, so it’s not as bad as the overall numbers seem. Henry should still see six-plus targets in this game and be played as a middling TE1.

Jared Cook: He hasn’t practiced at all the last few weeks with his groin injury, so unless there’s a quick change in his soft tissue injury, the Saints are likely to hold him out against the Chargers, especially when you consider their bye week comes right after this game. In his absence, Adam Trautman ran 13 routes and didn’t see a single target while Josh Hill ran seven routes and saw one target. Gross. Tight ends have averaged 8.0 targets per game against the Chargers and have averaged 7.28 yards per target and 1.92 PPR points per target, which are both slightly above the league average. It certainly makes you look worse when one of your four games – and 39.2 percent of the production – was against Travis Kelce, though. There were just three tight ends who reached 50 yards against the Chargers last year, so it doesn’t appear to be a great streaming spot, especially knowing he lack of involvement between Trautman and Hill.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears

Total: 44.0
Line: TB by 4.5

QBs
Tom Brady: After a slow start to a day that had him throwing for less than 100 yards in the first half, Brady turned it up in the second half, racking up 369 yards and five passing touchdowns against a tough Chargers secondary. The Chargers defense was shorthanded, but so was Brady. In fact, it might be even worse in Week 5, as Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Scotty Miller, and Justin Watson – his top four receivers – all missed practice on Monday and Tuesday. While Godwin and Watson were ruled out, Evans and Miller are questionable. That’s not even mentioning the loss of O.J. Howard, who was placed on season-ending IR. Removing any rushing totals, the Bears defense has allowed a minuscule 0.32 fantasy points per pass attempt, which ranks as the second-lowest mark in the league. That means if an average quarterback dropped back and threw the ball a relatively high 40 times, they’d walk away with 12.8 fantasy points. The 56.4 percent completion-rate they’ve allowed to opposing quarterbacks is the lowest mark in the league. Over the last 20 games, there have been just two quarterbacks who’ve totaled more than 17 fantasy points against the Bears. Patrick Mahomes is the only one to deliver a top-12 performance. This game would’ve been hard enough even if his team at full strength. He’s not a desired streamer this week and is more of a low-end QB2.

Nick Foles: If you watched that performance last week and didn’t think, “Oh, this situation is bad,” I don’t know what to tell you. Sure, they were playing against the Colts, who’ve been the best defense in the league through four weeks, but the offense just looked dysfunctional. Now on to play the Bucs defense that’d been dominant on both the ground and through the air on defense the first three weeks but showed some weakness against Justin Herbert last week when he compiled 290 yards and three touchdowns. It was shades of what we saw from this Bucs defense at the start of last season, though we thought those days were behind them. Still, in their last 10 games, they’ve allowed just two quarterbacks to finish as top-12 options. Just two of the last 12 quarterbacks they’ve played have averaged more than 7.6 yards per attempt, so they’ve been consistently good, not just lucky with touchdowns, either. But again, we have seen a few signs of weakness, as both Teddy Bridgewater and Herbert were able to throw for 290-plus yards against them over the last three weeks. If the Bears have any shot to win this game, it has to be through Foles, as the Bucs run defense has been lights out since the start of last year, allowing less than 3.0 yards per carry. When you see they’re projected for just 19.8 points, oddsmakers don’t see him carrying this team, and neither do I.

RBs
Ronald Jones, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, and Leonard Fournette: The addition of Brady was supposed to lighten up the defensive fronts for Jones, but that hasn’t been the case through four games, as he’s faced eight-man fronts on 26.3 percent of his carries, which is the sixth-most among running backs with 30-plus carries. According to NFL’s NextGenStats, he’s actually averaged 0.98 yards per carry over expectation which ranks as the eighth-best mark among running backs. His hands are a different story. If you watched the game last week, you wouldn’t walk away saying Jones earned a bigger role moving forward despite racking up 111 yards on the ground against a tough Chargers run defense. It was his horrendous play in the passing game that will have him sharing more time than ever moving forward. He already has three drops on the season, which led to Vaughn getting some playing time last week, and then HE dropped a pass, so Brady is left wondering what to do. We don’t know if Fournette will play this week, as he’s been dubbed a game-time decision, but it seems likely they hold him out on a short week. The Bears actually fit Jones’ role fairly well from a matchup standpoint for Jones, as they’ve allowed a solid 4.25 yards per carry and have already allowed four rushing touchdowns through four games. Opponents have averaged a healthy 24.0 carries per game against them, so if Fournette is out, Jones should approach 18 carries once again, as there’s little chance the Bears run away with this game. It’s the reason we’ve seen three teams of running backs total 107-plus rushing yards against them, even if none of them have broken 138 yards. Jones should be considered a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 in a tough matchup, but one that suits his role. With LeSean McCoy and Fournette out, the Bucs are likely to use Vaughn a bit, though he certainly lost some momentum with his drop last week. In a tough matchup, he’s a hail-mary RB4 play.

David Montgomery: There are many reasons for Montgomery’s struggles, but stacked boxes is not one of them. He’s faced eight-man defensive fronts just 7.6 percent of the time, which ranks as the seventh-lowest percentage in football. The Bears are the lone team who’ve yet to score a rushing touchdown. If you thought last week against the Colts was bad, just wait until you see Montgomery against this Bucs defense that has been lights out against running backs since the start of last year. Over their last 20 games, they’ve allowed just 1,089 rushing yards on 375 attempts. That amounts to a miniature 2.90 yards per carry. No running back has totaled 60 yards on the ground against them this year, and that includes games against Christian McCaffrey, Melvin Gordon, and Alvin Kamara. There was just one running back who broke 75 rushing yards against them last year, and that was Chris Carson in Week 9, though he still finished as the RB24 that week. In 20 games under Bruce Arians and Todd Bowles, the Bucs have allowed just 10 running backs to score more than 10.7 PPR points. Seven of those running backs scored 10.2 or more PPR points through the air, something Montgomery has done once in his 20 career games. He did see a career-high six targets last week with Foles under center, so there’s hope that he’s more involved, but he’s far from exciting. Consider him in the same range as someone like Ronald Jones this week as a low-end RB2/high-end RB3, and hope that pass game usage keeps up. If not, it could get ugly.

WRs
Mike Evans: He seemed to hurt his ankle pretty badly in Week 4 and had to go to the locker room for what I’d guess is a pain-killing injection. Once the adrenaline went away and the game was over, it may have swelled up on him. Still, what a heck of a performance by him, torching the Chargers secondary for 7/122/1 on eight targets. The matchup gets tougher in Week 5. The Bears are the only team in the NFL who’s still yet to allow a touchdown pass to a wide receiver. They’ve also allowed just a 53.4 percent completion rate to them. Knowing those stats, it’s not a surprise that they’ve allowed a league-low 1.29 PPR points per target to receivers. No receiver has finished higher than WR25, which includes a game against Calvin Ridley, who saw 12 targets in that contest. The Bears acquisition of Jaylon Johnson in the NFL Draft has proven to be a very good one, as he’s looked like the best Bears cornerback on the field through four games, though it’s a small sample size. Evans will see a mixture of Johnson and Kyle Fuller, who’ve both played well, though if they have an issue with this secondary going back to last year, it’s that they can get beat deep at times. They have allowed 13 pass plays of 20-plus yards through four games. We saw T.Y. Hilton get behind Fuller last week, though he took a holding call in order to save a long touchdown. If Evans plays, you have to play him, but given the tough nature of the matchup combined with his ankle injury, and you may want to temper expectations into WR2 territory.

Scotty Miller: He missed practice on both Monday and Tuesday, but part of that should’ve been expected considering he was limited in practice all last week and is still dealing with hip and groin injuries on a short week. He did practice on a limited basis on Wednesday, so I’m expecting him to play on Thursday night. He’s now seen at least five targets in 3-of-4 games, including a season-high seven targets last week, though Brady did throw the ball 46 times. Receivers have averaged a solid 22.0 targets per game against the Bears, though that hasn’t made much of a difference, as they’ve held them to just 1.29 PPR points per target. There’s just one other team in the league who’s allowed fewer than 1.55 points per target, so it shows you how good they’ve been. Miller’s targets have been 16.3 yards down the field on average, which does look better against the Bears, because when they do allow a reception, it’s gone for some yardage, as 13 plays have gone for 20-plus yards. The 14.13 yards per reception does rank as the seventh-highest mark in the league, so maybe Miller can sneak out with a big catch or two? He’s still nothing more than a risky WR4/5 who is trying to play through injuries against a team that has yet to allow a wide receiver touchdown.

Allen Robinson: Thank goodness for garbage time last week, eh? He totaled five catches for 69 yards and a touchdown in the final four minutes of that game. Robinson has been a magnet for targets this year, and the last two weeks particularly with Foles under center. He’s totaled 23 targets, 17 receptions, 224 yards, and two touchdowns over the last two weeks. He gets a tough test this week, as Carlton Davis will be shadowing him around the field. He’s gotten better every year he’s been in the league and is the clear No. 1 cornerback for them. He has allowed nine touchdowns in his coverage since the start of last year, so he’s not someone who’s unbeatable, but the fact that he’s allowed just a 52.9 percent completion-rate in his coverage while taking on some of the best receivers in the league is impressive. If Robinson can get to double-digit targets once again, it’d be helpful, as the Bucs have faced 17 receivers who’ve hit 10 targets against them since the start of last season, and every one of them scored at least 14.1 PPR points. The same rule doesn’t apply to those who’ve seen nine targets, though, as just 3-of-8 receivers who saw nine targets hit that mark. You’re playing Robinson as a low-end WR1 despite his bad quarterback play and the semi-tough matchup with Davis.

Anthony Miller: The good news is that Miller has been on the field a lot more over the last two weeks. He’s played 46 and 43 snaps, though he’s still not into the same territory he was at the end of the 2019 season where he was continually over 50 snaps played. Still, the 71 routes over the last two weeks are much better than the 39 routes in Weeks 1 and 2. If Matt Nagy understands what works against the Bucs, he’ll be using Miller a lot more this week. They have Sean Murphy-Bunting covering the slot, a second-year cornerback who’s allowed 17-of-18 passing for 222 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage this year, good enough for a 155.1 QB Rating. He wasn’t as bad in 2019, his rookie season, but he also wasn’t anyone to avoid in matchups. While Carlton Davis follows around Allen Robinson, Miller should be a focal point of the gameplan this week. We’ve said that before in matchups like this, though it’s been really hit or miss with Nagy. Miller should be considered a WR4/5 option who would produce if he’s given the targets.

TEs
Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate: In case you missed it, O.J. Howard ruptured his Achilles last week and is out for the season. That led to Gronkowski running a season-high 31 routes last week, though they didn’t amount to much. His targets through four games have been 3, 1, 7, 3. That doesn’t make you feel good, though I’ll admit I bought into his Week 3 game where he looked better. It’s likely that Brate just walks into the role that Howard had, limiting Gronkowski’s impact/target share. The Bears have already allowed three touchdowns to tight ends this year, but have limited yardage, as they’ve allowed just 6.00 yards per target to tight ends. They allowed just 6.76 yards per target last year, so it’s no fluke. Still, with the lack of wide receivers that are actually healthy on the Bucs, combined with the three touchdowns on 28 targets against the Bears, you have to at least consider a tight end in this game. With the lack of consistent targets for Gronkowski and Howard through four games, it’s impossible to start either Gronkowski or Brate with any confidence against a team that’s allowed just four tight ends to top 50 yards in their last 20 games.

Jimmy Graham: Coming into Week 5, Graham ranks fourth in targets inside the red zone (7), first in targets inside the 10-yard line (5), and first in targets inside the five-yard line (4). They’ve lined him up out wide on 19 snaps, which is the third-most among tight ends, which turns into a mismatch for cornerbacks. He’s seen at least five targets in 3-of-4 games, so he is getting enough volume to be considered as a streamer, but the Bucs have been solid against tight ends the last few weeks. They’ve held Noah Fant and Hunter Henry to a combined seven catches for 85 scoreless yards on 13 targets. This wasn’t a horrible matchup for tight ends under the same scheme last year, as they allowed 11 different tight ends finish as top-15 options, which is typically the floor you’re looking for in a streamer. Knowing the Bears will struggle to run the ball, we should expect plenty of pass attempts in this game, so given Graham’s 14.6 percent target share, he can be considered as a somewhat touchdown-dependent mid-tier streamer, though he should have a semi-decent floor of maybe 6-8 PPR points.

Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans (Tuesday Night)

Total: N/A
Line: N/A

*ALERT* This game has a lot of red tape, as one more positive test will cause this game to be canceled, so playing guys in this game will be at your own risk, as there are no games taking place after it. 

QBs
Josh Allen: We’re into odd territory with this game, as the Titans haven’t been able to practice – or shouldn’t have been able to – which puts them at a major disadvantage. Not only that, but they have two backup defensive lineman starting with both Jeffery Simmons and DaQuan Jones on the COVID list. It brings so many variables into projecting this game, but the Bills have been able to do everything they’re typically doing while preparing for a game, so by all accounts, they should have a massive advantage. The Titans pass rush had been generating pressure but not finishing, as their 3.67 percent sack-rate suggests, which is the fifth-lowest mark in the league. With Simmons out, it’s hard to see that righting itself in this game. Quarterbacks haven’t run the ball against them, as the 3.8 fantasy points they’ve allowed on the ground is the fifth-lowest mark in the league. They’ve faced just 35.0 attempts through the air this year, but on them, they’ve allowed a healthy 7.68 yards per attempt and 6.67 percent touchdown-rate. They also lost rookie Kristian Fulton to the COVID list, which doesn’t help. However, it seems like Adoree Jackson, who is their best cornerback, might make his season-debut in this game. Knowing that both Kirk Cousins and Gardner Minshew were both able to throw for three touchdowns against this defense, you should probably start Allen as a QB1 with the way he’s been playing. Stay tuned though because there’s still a chance this game doesn’t get played.

Ryan Tannehill: We know the Titans have apparently had a practice, though it wasn’t with the coaches and had no game-planning in it. With the lack of time to prepare, my guess would be that this is a run-heavy gameplan where they’re going to simplify everything. Tannehill also might be without his starting left tackle Taylor Lewan, who needed to be carted off with a shoulder injury during their last game. We won’t know until they actually practice, though. Does it really matter all that much this week? Well, maybe. The Bills have suddenly allowed three straight 300-yard passers, and it’s not like they played the best quarterbacks (Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jared Goff, Derek Carr). Each of them also threw two touchdowns, allowing all of them to finish as top-16 quarterbacks. That’s significant because there were just four quarterbacks who did that against them last year. It’s not all great for Tannehill, though. There have been just four quarterbacks in the last 20 games against the Bills who’ve averaged more than 7.24 yards per attempt, so volume has been rather important. He’s also going to be missing two of his top three receivers in this game, as both Corey Davis and Adam Humphries are on the COVID list. Because of that, combined with the risk of this game getting canceled, you should find another streaming option.

RBs
Devin Singletary and Zack Moss: The cause-and-effect of Josh Allen‘s play is forcing defenses to remain honest, and it’s led to Singletary seeing eight-man defensive fronts on just 2.0 percent of his carries, which is tied for the lowest mark in football. Coming off a game against the Raiders, Singletary is on cloud nine. That’s a team who’s allowed 5.35 yards per carry on the season. The Titans have been even more generous than them, as they’ve allowed a league-leading 5.90 yards per carry through their three games. They’ll also be without two of their best defensive linemen for this game, as both Jeffery Simmons and DaQuan Jones are on the COVID list. Each of the starting running backs who’ve played them have walked away with 78-plus rushing yards, a touchdown, and a top-15 finish. The biggest question will be whether or not Moss is active and playing this week. If he is, how much work do they give him with Singletary playing as well as he is? My guess would be nothing more than a handful of touches. Singletary should be considered a solid RB2 this week whose risk comes down to whether the game is played or not. As for Moss, you should avoid until you see him on the field in a meaningful role.

Derrick Henry: He’s already had his bye week (while 30 teams have not), yet he ranks second in carries with 82 of them (just one behind Josh Jacobs). He’s had a massive workload in every game and that’s not likely to change with the lack of preparation the Titans have been able to do. The Bills have been slightly above average in every metric against running backs, and that shows in the 0.80 PPR points per opportunity they’ve allowed to this point, which ranks 15th in the league. They’ve allowed just the 20th-most fantasy points on the ground to running backs, which is very similar to the 21st-most points they allowed to them last year. Still, that didn’t stop them from allowing 16 top-24 running backs against them last year, though no running back was able to eclipse 22.5 PPR points. Henry was among that group when he tallied 78 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries and finished as the RB21 that week. The bottom line is that Henry should have a solid low-end RB1/high-end RB2 game, but this isn’t a game to expect a massive ceiling or anything.

WRs
Stefon Diggs: One quarter through the season, Diggs is the No. 7 wide receiver with the Bills and is now on pace for 140 targets, a number he hit once during his five years with the Vikings (finished as the WR10 that year). Targets equal production with Diggs, plain and simple. Now that we know John Brown may have aggravated his calf injury, it could amount to even more targets in Week 5 against the Titans. Their cornerback trio of Malcolm Butler, Johnathan Joseph, and Kristian Fulton has struggled through three weeks, allowing 1.94 PPR points to receivers, which ranks as the seventh-highest mark in the league. They lost Fulton to the COVID list but may be getting their top cornerback Adoree Jackson back this week. Still, it would be his season debut, and it’s not as if he’s a complete shutdown cornerback, either. Given their struggles and lack of preparation for this game, they aren’t likely to be able to contain Diggs and Allen’s connection this week. Start him as a high-end WR2, just understand there’s risk of this game getting canceled with one more positive test.

John Brown: After watching a video of Brown pulling up with a bad limp from Thursday’s practice, it seems he re-injured his calf, and that would make him highly unlikely to play in this game. Even if he did, it could be in a limited role. With all the questions surrounding this game, it’s best to simply avoid Brown and go with another option this week.

Cole Beasley: Despite ranking 40th in routes run, Beasley’s production has stayed up due to his 2.56 yards per route run, which ranked ninth in the league coming into Week 4. Did you know he’s scored at least 9.0 PPR points in 16-of-19 games since the start of last year, including 9.8 or more PPR points in each of his four starts this year? He’s been a great bye week filler. Against the Titans, you must wonder how they’ll align their three cornerbacks, as the pending return of Adoree Jackson would shift them around. That’s not guaranteed, and the cornerback they’ve had in the slot has been Kristian Fulton, who’s now on the COVID list. That means it’s likely seventh-round rookie Chris Jackson covering Beasley. He’s been mediocre in his coverage so far, allowing 8-of-12 passing for 81 yards and a touchdown. Beasley should offer a solid floor for a last-minute WR4 replacement, especially if John Brown is held out.

A.J. Brown: It seems like Brown will be ready to go this week, though we don’t have any certainty with that considering they haven’t been able to practice. If he’s even close to ready to play, he’ll be out there, as the Titans are limping into this game at wide receiver without Corey Davis and Adam Humphries, who are both on the COVID list. Unfortunately, a date with Tre’Davious White awaits for Brown. It hasn’t been the best start to the season for White, as he’s already allowed two touchdowns in his coverage this year, which is as many as he allowed on 140 targets over the previous two seasons. Still, the Bills have allowed just 7.80 yards per target to receivers this year, which is the eighth-lowest in the league, so volume is typically necessary to do well. With no Davis and Humphries, he should get it, though there’s still risk that he may not play. For now, you should consider him a risky WR3. I’ll come back and update when we have more information on his availability.

TEs
Dawson Knox: After we watched Tyler Kroft score two touchdowns in Week 3, the Bills turned this tight end group into somewhat of a timeshare last week, as Knox ran 12 routes while Kroft ran eight of them. That’s not good for fantasy production. In a game with so much uncertainty surrounding it, there’s no reason to even take a shot on either of these guys.

Jonnu Smith: Despite playing just three games and seeing 20 targets (ranks 12th among tight ends), Smith currently sits as the No. 9 tight end in fantasy, and No. 3 in per-game production. Knowing the lack of passing options in the Titans lineup this week, Smith should have an extended role. The Bills have really struggled with tight ends this year, as they’ve allowed the combination of Chris Herndon, Mike Gesicki, Tyler Higbee, and Darren Waller to combine for 32 targets, 25 receptions, 295 yards, and a touchdown. The 9.21 yards per target they’ve allowed to tight ends is the fourth-most in the league. While Tre’Davious White covers A.J. Brown, we should see Smith be a favorite of Tannehill this week. There’s risk with waiting on this game, but if it happens, Smith should be worth the wait.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.