Los Angeles Rams at Washington Football Team
Total: 45.5
Line: LAR by 9.0
QBs
Jared Goff: It seems that Sean McVay is saving Goff from himself this year, as he’s tied for the lowest average depth of target in the league at just 5.8 air yards per attempt. In 2019, that number was a full 2.0 yards further. It may not seem like much but that amounts to a 26 percent decrease. Against Washington, that may not be the worst strategy, as they’ve pressured the opposing quarterback 36.2 percent of the time and have generated a 10.0 percent sack-rate. Sure, they’ve allowed two top-five quarterback performances, but it wasn’t due to them allowing massive totals through the air; it was due to them allowing 67 yards and two touchdowns on the ground to Kyler Murray, and then 53 yards and a touchdown on the ground to Lamar Jackson. We’ve still yet to see a quarterback post more than 286 passing yards or two passing touchdowns against them. In fact, both Baker Mayfield and Jackson finished with less than 200 yards, though they did combine to throw the ball just 44 times. But here’s the silver lining in this matchup: Washington has allowed 30-plus points to their opponents in three straight games and the Rams are projected for 27.3 points here. The Rams running backs have also combined for just two touchdowns over the last three weeks, so it’s not like we can expect them to be the reason for this 27.3-point team total. This should be a game where Goff is at least able to deliver competent QB2 numbers, though his ceiling isn’t massive due to a lack of competition on the other side of the ball.
Dwayne Haskins and Kyle Allen: With his back against the ropes, Haskins may have played the best game of his career in Week 4. He managed to completed 71.1 percent of his passes for 314 yards against a Ravens defense that’s been tough to throw against. He didn’t throw a touchdown in that game, but he did manage to sneak in a rushing touchdown. It was just the third time in his career he’s scored more than 13.3 fantasy points. He was then benched for Kyle Allen for this week’s game. Seriously. The Rams have not been a defense to attack in fantasy, as they’ve been the only team to hold Dak Prescott to less than 450 yards passing. That’s kind of a joke, but it’s true. The only quarterback who finished better than QB18 against the Rams this year has been Josh Allen, who’s playing at an MVP level through four games. Removing rushing from the equation, the Rams have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per actual pass attempt to opposing quarterbacks, and again, they’ve played against Prescott and Allen. This is not a time to get cute and trust any quarterback that’s under center as anything more than a QB3.
RBs
Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown, and Cam Akers: What a disappointment it was in Week 4 as Henderson had everything trending in the right direction, but then wound up receiving just nine opportunities against the Giants. Granted, he didn’t do much with those touches (38 total yards) but that’s hardly a big enough sample size to judge. It appears Sean McVay was being 100 percent honest when he said that he wanted his offense to be like Kyle Shanahan’s offense, with a different running back every week. Despite the stars aligning for Henderson last week, we were all let down, so remember that when trusting a Rams running back as anything more than a RB3/flex option. The matchup with Washington hasn’t been great for opposing running backs, as there’s been just one team of running backs to account for more than 17.2 PPR points, and that team of running backs was the Browns duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Running backs have actually totaled 111 touches through four games against them, which is the 15th-most in football, but the 463 total yards rank as the 11th-fewest in football. They’ve allowed just 0.75 PPR points per opportunity, which ranks as the seventh-lowest mark in the league, so volume has been paramount to a running backs success. This backfield has produced 29.5 touches per game, so even though Week 4 was a dud, there are enough touches to produce. Henderson is still the one I’d trust the most, though trusting him as anything more than an RB3 is too risky. Brown is teetering on the RB3/4 radar, while Akers is just a handcuff if he plays at all, as he’s been out of practice the last two weeks. He did return to a limited practice on Wednesday.
Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic: The touch totals (Gibson 17, McKissic 9) look very good, but the snaps don’t look as good, as Gibson played 31 snaps, while McKissic was on the field for 39 of them. This is still unfortunately a timeshare, though we’re getting closer to Washington realizing that Gibson should be the full-time running back with McKissic there to give him a breather. The Rams haven’t been a bad matchup for running backs to this point, as they’ve allowed a top-16 running back in three of their four games, with the only team failing to produce one being the Giants. Even then, Devonta Freeman was able to post a double-digit PPR game with 10.8 points. The efficiency numbers are slightly above average, as they allow 4.84 yards per carry and 7.10 yards per target, though the three total touchdowns to running backs have brought down the overall total points allowed. Still, the 0.89 PPR points per opportunity ranks as the 13th-highest in the league under new defensive coordinator Brandon Staley. It’s to the point where Gibson is about to enter the low-end RB2 conversation weekly, but his snap counts keep him just outside that range due to safer plays ahead of him.
WRs
Robert Woods: Through four weeks, Woods’ average depth of target is a minuscule 4.2 yards down the field. Fortunately for him, he’s created after the catch, averaging a league-high 9.2 yards every time he catches the ball. The Football Team has actually allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points per target (1.55) to wide receivers on the year. Despite five different receivers seeing at least seven targets, DeAndre Hopkins was the only one who scored more than 12.6 PPR points against them. Even his line wasn’t too impressive, as he caught 8-of-9 passes for 68 yards with a touchdown. The cornerback duo of Ronald Darby and Kendall Fuller have combined to allow 11-of-22 passing for 253 yards and a touchdown in their coverage. That’s a low catch percentage, but massive yards per target. Darby is the one who’ll see Woods the most, and it’s hard to say that’s a bad thing considering he’s allowed a 120 QB Rating in his coverage over the last two years, though getting beat over the top has been the struggle he’s had. That doesn’t exactly match with what Woods has done this year, though you’re plugging him in as a WR2 nearly every week, and this game should be no different.
Cooper Kupp: Through four weeks, it’s Kupp who leads the Rams receiving corps in targets (28), receptions (23), yards (297), and touchdowns (2). The talk of him having a minimalized role in this offense never made much sense considering how well he’s played. Washington has been using a mixture of seventh-round rookie Kamren Curl and Jimmy Moreland in the slot. The duo has combined to allow 17-of-21 passing for 125 scoreless yards to this point, so you can say they’ve done a phenomenal job. You can also say they haven’t played great competition, as the slot receivers they’ve lined up across from have been Greg Ward, Larry Fitzgerald, Jarvis Landry, and Willie Snead. None of those guys have been sturdy fantasy options this year. The two better options (Fitz and Landry) combined to catch 11-of-11 balls for 86 yards, so it’s not like they were horrendous, either. Kupp is someone who has a better matchup than Woods this week and should serve as a mid-to-high-end WR2 in this matchup.
Josh Reynolds: He’s clearly in the role of the No. 3 wide receiver right now, as Van Jefferson played just three snaps in Week 4. Reynolds has seen nine targets over the last two games and has been known as more of a field-stretcher in this offense, which matches up with what the Washington secondary has allowed. Kendall Fuller is the cornerback he’ll see in coverage most of the day, but if Sean McVay can move him and Woods around, that would allow Reynolds to get matched up with Ronald Darby, who struggles allowing the big play. Reynolds is nothing more than a hail mary play with his lack of targets, but if they move him around, there are matchups to exploit here.
Terry McLaurin: He’s now seen 39 targets, which ranks No. 6 among wide receivers. Even if they’re not great targets, he’s managed to post top-10 numbers through four games. To know that he went into Baltimore and was able to rack up 10 catches for 118 yards, it’s fair to say he’s matchup-proof. That doesn’t mean there won’t be busts – there will with his quarterback situation – but they won’t be due of his lack of ability. The next test on his list is the Rams’ Jalen Ramsey. They’re going to have him shadow McLaurin, which isn’t the greatest, but also isn’t the worst. Since the start of last year, Ramsey isn’t quite the shutdown cornerback that he used to be, as he’s allowed 56-of-85 passing for 636 yards and four touchdowns during that time. Now, to be fair, while those aren’t elite numbers, he has been asked to shadow opposing top receivers. This year, it’s been Amari Cooper (10/81/0), Stefon Diggs (4/49/1), and Darius Slayton (3/48/0). You’re playing McLaurin as a WR2 but adjust expectations to low-end WR2 numbers this week.
TEs
Tyler Higbee: Through four weeks, Higbee ranks 26th among tight ends in routes run, just above Ryan Izzo. While we can’t just remove big games from a tight end’s sample size, where would he be without his three-touchdown game against the Eagles? Outside of that game, he’s not topped three catches or 40 yards in a single game. That’s a problem for his reliability as an every-week TE1. He’s run fewer than 20 routes in each of the last three games. If you don’t know how to quantify that, here’s the routes he ran at the end of 2019 when he became a household name: 33, 26, 42, 34, and 37. You can now understand why he’s struggling to be a consistent producer. Until something changes there, it’s going to be hard to trust him every week. Now, to be fair, Washington has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per target to tight ends in 2020, as they’ve already allowed five touchdowns to them. It surely doesn’t help that they played Mark Andrews, Dallas Goedert, and Zach Ertz in a few of their games, as those three tight ends accounted for four of the five touchdowns. You don’t want to completely write off Higbee but understand why you need to temper expectations. He should be considered a mid-to-low-end TE1 this week in a good matchup.
Logan Thomas: He has now run the fourth-most routes among all tight ends, behind only Zach Ertz, Evan Engram, and Travis Kelce. Unfortunately, the production hasn’t been there to match, as he’s averaging just 0.70 yards per route run, which is comparable to Tyler Eifert, Chris Herndon, and Ryan Izzo. The Rams have allowed just 7.17 yards per reception to tight ends, so you need to rack up the receptions or you’re not going to amount to much against them. Thomas’ target share has gone down every week, bottoming out at just 8.9 percent in Week 4 while Haskins threw the ball 45 times and targeted Thomas on just four of them. Knowing he hasn’t topped 37 yards in a game, you’re essentially looking for a touchdown, and that’s a risky proposition from Haskins, who’s thrown 11 touchdowns in 11 career starts. Knowing fellow inefficient NFC East tight end Evan Engram hauled in just 6/35/0 on 10 targets against this defense last week, feel free to avoid Thomas.
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers
Total:
Line: SF by 8.5
QBs
Ryan Fitzpatrick: We’re getting close to the point where the Dolphins will go to Tua Tagovailoa, as Brian Flores waited until Tuesday to announce the starter for this game, though it never would’ve made sense for the rookie to make his first start on the road against a 49ers defense that has still been very good despite all the injuries they’ve dealt with. They have allowed just 5.92 yards per attempt through four games, which is the best mark in the league, and that’s despite missing their top cornerback and top two pass rushers. It’s not just that, either. The 2.27 percent touchdown-rate they’ve allowed ranks as the second-best in the league. The lone benefit for Fitzpatrick playing the 49ers is that they’ve allowed a league-high 32.5 fantasy points on the ground to quarterbacks. Despite getting up there in age, Fitzpatrick is willing to put his body on the line, as evidenced by his 115 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, which is more than all but Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, Daniel Jones, and Sam Darnold. Even then, you’re not going to trust Fitzpatrick against a team that’s held 18 of the last 20 quarterbacks they’ve played to 7.4 yards per attempt or less. When streaming a quarterback, you have to know he’ll play the whole game, which is something we can’t say about Fitzpatrick anymore.
Jimmy Garoppolo or Nick Mullens: We have no idea if Garoppolo will be back this week, as he did get in a limited practice on Wednesday. Based on how quick they moved on from Mullens last week, I’m guessing Garoppolo will be rushed back for the 2-2 49ers team. It’s a good game to return to, as the Dolphins have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, despite seeing the 11th-fewest pass attempts against them. Remember when they made those moves in free agency/NFL Draft to make their secondary better? Well, the league-leading 9.27 yards per attempt they’ve allowed says the moves didn’t work. No other team in the league has allowed more than 8.63 yards per attempt. One of those moves was acquiring Byron Jones, who has missed the last two weeks due to a groin/Achilles injury, but he’s expected to return this week. Either way, it’s unlikely he’s 100 percent. If Garoppolo returns, this has the feeling of a 250-yard, two-touchdown game for him, which is enough to be considered a middle-of-the-road QB2. There is risk of reaggravation, which is why you may want to lean with the other guy if you’re torn between two players. If Garoppolo sits, Mullens isn’t far off that pace, though they’ll likely leave the game in their running backs’ hands a bit more in that case, making him a low-end QB2. *Update* Garoppolo will be under center this week.
RBs
Myles Gaskin: It’s clear there’s only one running back you can even think about starting out of the Dolphins backfield. Gaskin has now totaled 55 opportunities over the last three games, while Breida has 18, and Howard has 11. That’s a 65 percent opportunity share for Gaskin, though he’s still not getting the touches that matter the most, as he has one carry inside the five-yard line compared to eight of them for Howard. Despite all the injuries the 49ers have suffered on defense, they’ve still allowed a league-low 0.57 PPR points per opportunity to running backs. That means even if Gaskin somehow managed to get to 15 touches, you’re looking at an average of just 8.55 PPR points. Not great for someone who doesn’t get goal-line work, as touchdowns aren’t even there to save him. No running back has finished with more than 15.0 PPR points against the 49ers without a touchdown in their last 20 games. There hasn’t been a single running back who posted more than 14.5 PPR points against them this year, period. Gaskin is playable due to his touch share, but he’s just a low-upside RB3.
Raheem Mostert, Jerick McKinnon, and Jeff Wilson: It seems like we may be waiting another week for Mostert, though we have to pay attention to the injury report later in the week (I’ll update the bottom of the notes). For now, we must assume it’s McKinnon’s backfield after he tallied 67 snaps compared to just six for Wilson. It’s not like McKinnon did anything to lose the job, either, as he racked up 97 total yards and a touchdown against a tough Eagles defense. The Dolphins have only faced 103 running back touches through four weeks (25.8 per game) which ranks as the ninth-fewest, but they’ve allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to them. They’ve allowed a massive 1.16 PPR points per opportunity, which ranks third, only behind the Raiders and the Packers. The only running backs to total more than 12 touches against them were James Robinson and Chris Carson, who both scored 25-plus PPR points. I won’t pretend that McKinnon may share the workload in a projected blowout, but he’s a solid RB2 start this week as long as Mostert is held out. Wilson should get more work than he got last week, though that’s not saying much. If you start him as anything more than a last-minute RB4, you’re asking for disappointment.
WRs
DeVante Parker: When Parker left the game in the first quarter, fantasy managers started to get PTSD from the previous years of Parker’s career where he left them high-and-dry. Fortunately, Parker has made it a point to play through aches and pains this year, and it allowed him to rack up 12 targets, 10 receptions, and 110 yards last week against the league’s worst pass defense. Unfortunately, he goes from that matchup to one against one of the better pass defenses in the league. The 49ers have allowed just 10.75 yards per reception to wide receivers, which is the third-lowest mark in the league, and that’s despite tons of injuries. If Parker has a good game, it won’t be due to big splash plays but rather a lot of little ones. On top of that, they are slated to get back Richard Sherman back this week, who’s coming off a three-week absence for his calf injury. If for whatever reason he couldn’t return, that would be an upgrade for Parker against the combination of Jason Verrett and Dontae Johnson who’ve combined to allow 8-of-13 passing for 104 yards and a touchdown this season. If Sherman can’t go, Parker would stay on the radar as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 play. If Sherman practices and plays, I’d put Parker in the middling WR3 territory.
Preston Williams: He’s not even playing all the snaps anymore, as he’s sharing them with Jakeem Grant on the perimeter, while Isaiah Ford is taking most of the slot reps. After seeing seven targets in the season opener, Williams has seen just 10 targets over the last three games combined and hasn’t caught more than two balls or recorded more than 26 yards. He’s someone who doesn’t even need to be rostered at this point. If you can’t trust him against the Seahawks, you’re not going to be able to trust him against anybody.
Isaiah Ford: When you have a receiver who’s seen at least nine targets in two of the last three games, he should probably be mentioned in The Primer. It hasn’t been a fruitful 21 targets over the last three weeks, as Ford has turned them into 13 receptions for 138 scoreless yards, so it’s not like you’re excited to play him. On top of that, he had a few plus-matchups during that time. He’s coming on the field in three-wide receiver sets to play in the slot, which would have been a brutal matchup in the slot against K’Waun Williams, but he sprained his ACL last week and is out for a few weeks. The 49ers are going to have Jamar Taylor fill that role, a cornerback who’s been below average throughout his career, allowing a 112.0 QB Rating in his coverage. He is playing in a much better scheme than ever before that’s had cornerbacks looking better than ever. Ford could have a bigger role than some think this week, though I wouldn’t want to trust him as anything more than a WR5 with minimal upside.
Brandon Aiyuk: The matchup wasn’t ideal last week but Aiyuk found a way to make his touches count. He scored one of the most acrobatic touchdowns you’ll see all year when he hurdled a defender at the goal line. Similar to the way Deebo Samuel was used last year, Aiyuk has received four carries over the last two weeks that have netted 69 yards and two touchdowns. Speaking of Samuel, he ran just 16 routes last week while Aiyuk ran 48 of them, so they’re clearly easing him back into the lineup, making Aiyuk the top play on the team. Wide receivers have averaged a league-high 10.41 yards per target against the Dolphins to this point, as the cornerback upgrades haven’t exactly panned out for them. He’s playing most of his snaps at LWR, though the Dolphins have mixed up their cornerback sides with Xavien Howard and Noah Igbinoghene, so we can’t say which one he’ll see more of. But with Kittle back in full swing, and Samuel’s snaps only increasing by the week, we can’t confidently say Aiyuk sees more than five targets in any given week, making him a high-end WR4 rather than a locked-and-loaded every-week starter.
Deebo Samuel: He returned to the lineup last week but only ran 16-of-50 possible routes, so they’re clearly easing him back into the lineup. He looked good on the four touches he did get, catching all three targets for 35 yards and rushing for 10 yards on his one carry. Expect his routes to double this week as he gets more confident in his surgically-repaired foot. As expected, he moved all over the field, so there’s not one particular matchup he’ll have against the Dolphins. As a whole, they’ve already allowed eight wide receivers to rack up four-plus receptions, including 70-plus yards to five of them. That’s due to the league-leading 10.41 yards per target they’ve allowed to receivers. If Samuel were 100 percent and playing all the snaps, he’d be a must-start in this matchup, but with the uncertainties, he’s a risk/reward WR4/5-type option.
TEs
Mike Gesicki: What in the world happened to Gesicki last week? Despite a lack of involvement from Preston Williams, Gesicki saw just three targets against the Seahawks. In fact, his teammate Durham Smythe caught one more pass and finished with twice the yards. Gesicki ran 36 routes (sixth among tight ends last week), so it wasn’t that, but it’s clear there needs to be more volatility built into his ranking. The 49ers have not allowed more than 22 yards to a tight end this season, and that includes games against Zach Ertz and Evan Engram. There were just four tight ends who scored double-digit PPR points against them last year, too, and two of those tight ends saw double-digit targets. But adding the years together, the 49ers have allowed just four tight ends to eclipse 32 yards in their last 20 games. Coming off the game he just had, it’s tough recommending Gesicki as anything more than a middling TE2.
George Kittle: It clearly doesn’t matter who the 49ers quarterback is; they know where the money is made. Throw it to Kittle should probably be 50 percent of the playbook after he caught 15-of-15 targets in his return for 183 yards and a touchdown. If you’re one of the “how many fantasy points have they allowed?” crowd, you’d probably be worried about Kittle this week, as the Dolphins have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the tight end position. But what if I told you they’ve seen just 21 targets and that those targets came from Ryan Izzo, Dawson Knox, James O’Shaughnessy/Tyler Eifert, and Greg Olsen? Despite that group, they have allowed 7.19 yards per target to tight ends, which ranks as the 14th-most in the league. The lack of pass attempts is the only concern in this game for Kittle, as it’s been for most tight ends against them. Because of that, the Dolphins haven’t allowed a tight end more than 66 yards since Week 1 of last year. But let’s be real, you’re playing him every week as a locked-and-loaded TE1.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Total: 54.0
Line: DAL by 9.5
QBs
Daniel Jones: Remember when we talked about touchdown regression for Patrick Mahomes after the 2018 season? Well, he threw a touchdown on 8.62 percent of his passes that year. Through four games, the Cowboys are allowing an 8.03 percent touchdown rate through the air. For each time a quarterback throws a pass (not including rushing totals), they average 0.614 fantasy points per pass attempt against the Cowboys. So, even if a quarterback has thrown just 30 passes, that averages out to 18.42 fantasy points. Crazy, right? The Giants have run just 60.2 plays per game to this point, though the Cowboys should be able to help out with that, as their opponents have run 71.8 plays per game, while their games overall have run a league-leading 149.0 plays per game. Matchups like this are the ones that had fantasy managers believing Jones could be a breakout star, as he totaled 28-plus fantasy points in games against Washington, the Bucs, Jets, and Lions last year, all teams who ranked in the bottom-15 against the pass, with three of them in the bottom-10. Knowing he’s still without one of his starting wide receivers, it’s tough to say Jones is a can’t-miss play this week, but if there ever were a week to play him, this would be it, as the Cowboys have allowed at least 38 points to each of their last three opponents.
Dak Prescott: He’s the first player in NFL history to throw for 450-plus yards in three consecutive games. How is that happening? Well, defense is a big part of the reason why, though Cowboys games are netting a massive 149.0 plays per game, which is easily the most in the NFL. Now onto a matchup with the Giants, who have surprisingly allowed just the sixth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks through four weeks. We’re still in the area of the season where context is key, as they’ve played a somewhat easy quarterback schedule against Ben Roethlisberger (who finished as the QB9), Mitch Trubisky, Nick Mullens, and Jared Goff. Doesn’t seem as impressive anymore, eh? Their pass rush is better than anyone thought, as they’ve sacked quarterbacks on 7.3 percent of their dropbacks, which ranks as the 11th-best mark in football, though their pressure-rate ranks 21st, so they’ve been lucky in that regard. The Cowboys receivers match up well with the Giants secondary, as they’re not deep at the cornerback position at all. 52.3 percent of the fantasy points they’ve allowed have gone to receivers, which ranks as the 10th-most, while the Cowboys target their receivers 62.9 percent of the time, which ranks as the 12th-most. In a game the Cowboys are projected for 31.8 points, Prescott should remain in lineups as a top-three quarterback. *Update* His left tackle Tyron Smith has been announced as out for the remainder of the season, which adds a lot more concern about his projection moving forward. You’re still starting him, but he may be someone to sell high after hearing about Smith’s injury.
RBs
Devonta Freeman: After being with the team for a full week, Freeman was the clear lead back for the Giants last week, totaling 15 touches and 68 total yards against the Rams. It was never going to be a dream role behind this offensive line and alongside a quarterback who’s struggling, but 15 touches are hard to come by in today’s NFL. He also ran 21 pass routes last week, which ranked 15th among running backs, which is important in a game they’re nine-point underdogs. Unfortunately, teams have not dumping down to their running backs against the Cowboys, as they’ve accounted for just a 10.9 percent target share, the lowest in the league. That’s also likely why running backs have tallied just 19.2 PPR points through the air against them, which is also the lowest in the league. But again, the Cowboys have trailed for a majority of the time this year, something that’s projected to be different in Week 5. They’ve already played against six running backs who’ve totaled 11 or more carries, but just two of those running backs scored more than 10.6 PPR points. Those running backs were Malcolm Brown and Kareem Hunt, who both scored twice. All-in-all, the Cowboys have been a decent run defense despite the volume they’ve faced (120 carries, ranks as the second-most). The efficiency numbers they have are top-six in the league, so don’t go expecting miracles out of Freeman this week. He’s an RB3/flex option with a limited ceiling.
Ezekiel Elliott: No running back in the league has run more pass routes than Elliott, and it’s not all that close. His 145 routes are 33 more than the closest running back (David Johnson). Even if he’s inefficient through the air, that’s extremely valuable, especially when you combine that with his 91 percent of the team’s running back carries. There’s likely been a talk inside the building this week about how they need to have a more balanced attack moving forward. What better way to do that than in a game where they’re 9.5-point home favorites? The Giants have done a good job limiting production on the ground, though playing against Benny Snell, David Montgomery, Jerick McKinnon, and Darrell Henderson will do that. Snell and Montgomery were able to rush for 82-plus yards, so it’s not a complete-shutdown type matchup or anything. Three of the four teams did total at least 26 carries, a mark that Elliott could realistically hit if the Cowboys keep giving him 91 percent of the team’s carries. The last time Elliott played the Giants (with similar players, though in a different scheme), he totaled 139 yards on 23 carries. On top of that, the Giants have allowed the third-most fantasy points per target (2.06) to running backs, and Elliott has seen 30 targets over the first four games. This could be that Elliott 100-yard, two-touchdown game his managers have been waiting for.
WRs
Darius Slayton: Has run the fifth-most routes among wide receivers through four weeks. The other players in the top-10 include Michael Gallup, Amari Cooper, Tyler Boyd, CeeDee Lamb, DeAndre Hopkins, Terry McLaurin, Tyler Lockett, Calvin Ridley, and Tyreek Hill. That is a wonderful group to be attached to, and production should catch up. He also ranks 16th in targets, which is all you can ask for. The Cowboys have allowed a league-high 2.32 PPR points per target to wide receivers through four weeks. Knowing Slayton has seen at least six targets in each of the four games, he should come with a solid floor in this matchup. The Cowboys were struggling enough at cornerback, so losing Chidobe Awuzie and Anthony Brown to injured reserve has been tough. Slayton’s primary matchup will be against Daryl Worley, though he’s also see plenty of rookie Trevon Diggs as well. Since Awuzie was announced on IR in Week 3, they’ve combined to allow 18-of-25 passing for 193 yards and three touchdowns. Slayton can be considered a WR3 this week who has a higher ceiling than most in that range.
Golden Tate: Despite Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard being out the last two weeks, Tate has just a 9.2 percent share of the Giants air yards on the season, which is pitiful and not nearly enough for him to be reliable unless he’s creating tons of yards after the catch. Hint: he’s not. He’s averaged just 2.6 yards after the catch, and according to NFL’s NextGenStats, he should’ve averaged 3.8 yards after the catch based on the yards of separation at target. Last year, Tate averaged 6.1 yards after the catch when he was expected to average 3.6 yards, so it’s one of two things. Tate may be playing through an injury (he was hurt during camp) or he’s nearing the end of his career. The Cowboys have Jourdan Lewis covering the slot with Anthony Brown on the injured list. He’s a slightly below average cornerback who’s allowed 6-of-9 passing this year for 39 yards and a touchdown. The Cowboys are clearly running a lot of zone coverage, as the stats show a lot more than that to slot receivers. Through four games, they’ve played Cooper Kupp (4/40/0 on five targets), Russell Gage (6/46/1 on nine targets), Tyler Lockett (9/100/3 on 13 targets), and Jarvis Landry (5/48/0 on six targets). So, as a whole, they’ve done very well, especially those who were heavily targeted. Tate has averaged six targets per game, so he shouldn’t be forgotten in this plus-matchup. Still, given his play this year, it’s hard to say he’s more than a decent floor WR4 option.
Amari Cooper: Through four weeks, Amari Cooper is the No. 1 receiver in PPR formats. Keep in mind he’s sitting there while having just one touchdown. His yardage is sure to drop with Prescott’s but his touchdowns should rise with his elite volume (his 51 targets lead the league). Even better, Cooper has been consistent, totaling at least nine catches and/or 100 yards in every game. The Giants have been using James Bradberry in a shadow role, which should be expected for Cooper, though it does leave them exposed in other areas of the field. Bradberry has done a good job to this point with the Giants, as he’s allowed just 145 yards on 23 targets in coverage. He did allow two touchdowns, though both of them came in Week 1 against the Steelers on pick plays that he was not necessarily to blame for. If there’s a week Cooper might take a backseat to Gallup and/or Lamb, it could be this one. You’re still starting him as a low-end WR1, but temper those No. 1 wide receiver expectations, as he has the toughest matchup on the field. I don’t think he’s a great cash-game play this week.
Michael Gallup: It hasn’t been the start to the year that Gallup drafters wanted, though he has seen at least five targets in each game, and his targets are worth more than most as he’s being targeted 17.4 yards down the field on average, which ranks second to only Marquise Brown. He’s 10th in the league in air yards, which typically leads to production, especially when you have a good quarterback. He’s also run more routes than any other receiver in the league, so the vital signs are good with him. While Amari Cooper is likely to draw James Bradberry in coverage this week, that would leave Gallup with former undrafted free agent Ryan Lewis in coverage. He’s been on three teams over the last three years and has never had a season where he’s seen more than 34 targets in coverage. The Giants still haven’t allowed a receiver more than 70 yards this year, but this is a matchup that Gallup can/should win. His lack of results must be accounted for but that doesn’t mean you can’t play him as a WR3 who has a better matchup than Cooper.
CeeDee Lamb: He was back into his full-time role in Week 4, so what looked like could be a knee injury turned out to be nothing. He ran just two fewer routes than Amari Cooper. Speaking of Cooper, Lamb is reaping the benefits of Cooper’s play, as Lamb was left uncovered on his biggest play of the game last week where he caught a 43-yard touchdown. He’s now caught at least five passes and totaled at least 59 yards in every game, making him a safer play than most slot-heavy receivers. It surely helps that Prescott has thrown for 450-plus yards in three straight games, but he’s outproduced Gallup in 3-of-4 games. The Giants have fourth-round rookie Darnay Holmes as their slot cornerback right now. He has allowed 13-of-17 passing for 149 yards in his coverage to this point, though it’s worth noting that three of the five touchdowns the Giants have allowed to wide receivers have gone to those who are slot-heavy. Lamb should be in lineups as a WR3 at this point, though we must expect a dip once Prescott comes back down to earth.
TEs
Evan Engram: Typically, you just follow the targets at tight end, and everything just sorts itself out. Unfortunately, that has not been the case with Engram, who ranks third in tight end targets (30) but eighth in receptions (17), 20th in yards (131), and last in touchdowns (still hasn’t scored). He has caught six passes in two of the last three games, so it’s not all bad for those in PPR formats, but he has capped out at 65 yards despite seeing seven-plus targets in three games. The Cowboys have allowed at least 7.0 PPR points to each tight end they’ve played (including another backup), with three of them scoring 11.1-plus PPR points. The 74.3 percent completion-rate and 7.34 yards pre target are both above the league average, so we should expect a low-end TE1/high-end TE2 game out of Engram. If he decides to be efficient, he can do damage in this matchup, but based on what we’ve seen so far, there’s no reason to expect that.
Dalton Schultz: Since taking over for Blake Jarwin as the starter, Schultz has been the No. 3 tight end in fantasy football. His worst game was a four-catch, 48-yard performance against the Seahawks. Any time you have a tight end averaging 8.0 targets per game from an offense that is scoring 31.5 points per game (third in NFL), you must pay attention. He did seem to suffer an injury towards the end of last week’s game, and it’s being listed as a thigh injury, so we’ll pay attention as the week goes on. The Giants have not been a team to attack with tight ends to this point, as they’ve allowed just 1.34 PPR points per target to them under the new defensive scheme. It certainly helps efficiency numbers when they’ve played against Eric Ebron, Jimmy Graham, Ross Dwelley, and Tyler Higbee, but still, they’ve done a solid job with the position. Knowing the volume should come down for the entire passing game this week in a game they’re projected to crush, we must lower expectations for Schultz, though he’s still on the low-end TE1 radar with his usage.
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
Total: N/A
Line: N/A
Editor’s Note: This game was moved to Week 6
QBs
Drew Lock or Brett Rypien: Through one and a quarter games, Rypien has averaged 7.4 yards per attempt, which is more than both Drew Lock and Jeff Driskel can say. Granted, one of his games was against the Jets, but he’s still got to take advantage of the good matchups. Lock did return to a limited practice this week, so it’s possible he plays. There are so many questions surrounding this team, but the scheme hasn’t really changed no matter who’s under center in Pat Shurmur’s offense. The Patriots went from a team you didn’t want to play anyone against, to one who you could actually target. They allowed just 5.99 yards per attempt in 2019, to one who’s allowed 8.20 yards per attempt in 2020 and are now going to be without their top cornerback Stephon Gilmore who is now on the COVID list. Teams haven’t thrown a whole lot against them though, as the 29.8 attempts per game suggests. As far as run to pass ratio, they have faced a pass play on 54.6 percent of plays (11th-lowest) while the Broncos have passed on 61.3 percent of their plays (10th-most), so something has to give. Gamescript should determine that and this game should be close throughout. The Broncos have thrown the ball just 54 percent of the time in neutral gamescripts (within three points either way), so I’d guess we see somewhere in the range of 30-35 pass attempts, which isn’t enough to start either of these quarterbacks confidently.
Jarrett Stidham: Bill Belichick has said they’re taking it “day by day” when it comes to their quarterback position, as Cam Newton reportedly has a chance to play, though I don’t understand how that’s possible, even if he is asymptomatic. For now, I’m expecting Stidham to start for the Patriots, though I’ll come back and update if anything changes. Teams have continually attacked the Broncos through the air and it’s hard to blame them considering the results. They’ve faced the fourth-most pass attempts (41.5 per game), allowed the eighth-most passing yards (275.8 per game), and ninth-most passing touchdowns (7), all while intercepting just one pass. Still, it’s hard to see a scenario where the Patriots stick the ball in Stidham’s hands and let him chuck the ball 40-plus times. If those passing attempts are lowered in this game, the Broncos have allowed just the sixth-fewest yards per attempt (6.64). No matter which way you slice it, it’s hard to recommend Stidham outside of a Superflex/2QB format.
RBs
Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay: In the first game under Brett Rypien, the Broncos ran the ball 26 times, with Gordon getting 23 of them while Lindsay was inactive. Gordon looked good on them, racking up 107 yards and two touchdowns against a solid Jets run defense. Now onto a Patriots team that doesn’t look the same as it did two weeks ago, let alone a year ago. They’ve allowed a healthy 4.36 yards per carry on the season, though no running back has been able to top 72 yards on the ground due to lack of plays. Their opponents have averaged just 57.2 plays per game on the year, which ranks as the second-fewest in the league. That has led to just 105 running back touches, or 26.3 per game. With Lindsay coming back this week, that could lower Gordon’s fantasy floor a bit more. However, with both Cam Newton and Stephon Gilmore on the COVID list and out for this game, there’s a much better chance for the Broncos to actually win this game and be in a positive gamescript, similar to last week’s game. Gordon should still have a 15-touch floor against a defense that’s gone through too many changes to expect them to be better than average this year. With very little risk of getting blown out, Gordon should be a very safe RB2 play this week who just might get into RB1 territory again. Lindsay is likely going to be eased back in after a multi-week absence, but he could get into the 6-10 touch range, which could provide last-minute RB4 value in a pinch.
Damien Harris, James White, and Rex Burkhead: The Patriots wasted no time letting you know they have zero issues with Harris, who racked up 17 carries in his first game of the season. It should be reminded that Sony Michel hadn’t had more than 11 carries in a game to this point. It should also be reminded that Harris racked up 100 yards on the ground, something Michel has done once over his last 20 games. The Broncos have allowed just one rushing touchdown on 88 carries this year and have been a funnel defense for the most part. The 0.59 PPR points per opportunity ranks as the second-lowest mark in the league behind only the 49ers. They’re the only two teams in the league who’ve allowed less than 0.68 PPR points per opportunity to running backs, highlighting just how bad this matchup is. The good news is that the Broncos aren’t blowing anybody out, which is allowing opponents to stack up touches. The 88 carries through four games ranks as the 15th-most in football. We can’t forget that they’ve lost two defensive tackles to IR this season, too. It’s not a smash spot for someone like Harris, who’s exclusively a two-down back, but he should net enough touches to get into RB3 territory. White went right back to his heavy usage last week, piling up 40 snaps to Burkhead’s 27 snaps. Unfortunately, the 1.09 yards per target the Broncos have allowed through the air is the second-lowest mark in the league. This matchup requires volume, which is something we can’t guarantee for White or Burkhead. If you’re playing one it’s White, though he should be considered a low-end RB3 for this game. Burkhead falls into the RB4 territory after losing his pass routes to White.
WRs
Jerry Jeudy: Through four NFL games, Jeudy has been… consistent. He’s totaled at least 55 yards in each game but hasn’t topped 62 yards. His touchdown catch against the Jets last week was a thing of beauty, and it masked what would’ve been a rough game, as he caught just one pass for 13 yards outside of that 48-yard touchdown. He did see plenty of targets from Rypien the prior week, so I’m not too concerned about his target share. He did have the toughest matchup with Brian Poole in the slot. This week, the Patriots will be without Stephon Gilmore, which tilts their whole defense upside down, but the slot was already an issue for them. Here are the slot performances they’ve allowed this year: Tyreek Hill (4/64/1 on six targets), Hunter Renfrow (6/84/1 on nine targets), Tyler Lockett (7/67/1 on eight targets), and Jakeem Grant (3/25/0 on four targets). This is a much better matchup and one where you should be willing to trust the consistent Jeudy for WR3 production.
Tim Patrick: What in the world is happening when Patrick is the No. 28 wide receiver on the year, in front of guys like D.J. Moore, Michael Gallup, and John Brown despite playing the same number of games. He’s caught 16-of-21 targets for 209 yards and two touchdowns, which is impressive given his current quarterback situation. And now, the Patriots are going to be without No. 1 cornerback Stephon Gilmore, which leaves J.C. Jackson as their top perimeter cornerback. He’s allowed 10-of-13 passing for 102 yards and a touchdown in his coverage this year. The Patriots haven’t allowed a 100-yard receiver against them this year, but they have allowed six different receivers to post double-digit PPR days. They’ve allowed seven touchdowns to receivers which ranks as the third-most in the league, and what’s propelled them to allow the second-most points per target (2.24) to receivers. We can’t forget about Patrick’s first three games where he didn’t top four catches or 43 yards, but it helps that he has the same quarterback that he did last week. He’s in the WR4 conversation this week.
Julian Edelman: After a hot start, Edelman has really cooled off the last few weeks, totaling just five catches for 58 scoreless yards against the Raiders and Chiefs. Whether people realize it or not, the Raiders (13th) and Chiefs (1st) are actually tough matchups for wide receivers. In Week 5, however, there are no excuses. Teams have continually attacked the Broncos cornerbacks, as wide receivers have averaged 25.3 targets per game against them. That’s led to the fifth-most fantasy points in the league, including 16.8 receptions per game, which is the second-most in the league. The Broncos are not likely going to have A.J. Bouye back for this game, which means Essang Bussey is going to remain as the slot cornerback, which is a very good thing for Edelman. Bussey has allowed 12-of-14 passing for 120 yards and a touchdown in his coverage. It wasn’t pretty last week, but you have to shake it off and get Edelman back in lineups as a WR3 this week.
N’Keal Harry: Despite seeing six-plus targets in three of their four games, Harry has topped 39 yards just once. He did what he does best last week, skying up over a defender to win a contested catch from Stidham. It’s good that he found a quarterback who’ll trust him in those situations because he’s not very good at separating. Now with 52 targets over his career to go along with 271 yards (5.2 yards per target), it’s clear he needs volume to be a fantasy option. The Broncos have issues at cornerback with A.J. Bouye not due back, which means Harry will see a lot of Bryce Callahan in coverage. He’s a slot cornerback who’s not really used to playing on the perimeter. In his coverage this year, he’s allowed 16-of-22 passing for 142 yards, which is better than I would’ve expected. Still, he’s at a major size disadvantage against Harry (6-foot-2, 225 pounds) with his small 5-foot-9, 188-pound frame. Harry is going to remain a touchdown-heavy WR5 in fantasy until he starts getting more efficient.
TEs
Noah Fant: He’s not likely to play this week after Vic Fangio said he has a mild high-ankle sprain. Behind him last week were Jake Butt and Nick Vannett. It was Butt who ran 13 routes to just five for Vannett, so it would appear that Butt is the primary pass-catcher in Fant’s absence. Through four games, the Patriots have allowed just 12 receptions to tight ends, which ranks as the fifth-fewest in the league, so production has not been funneled there. You can look elsewhere for a streamer this week.
Ryan Izzo: He hasn’t seen more than three targets in any one game and he has the same amount of yards that you do over the last two games. You’re not considering Izzo in any format.