New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (GAME MAY BE POSTPONED)

Total: 54.0
Line: KC by 7.0

QBs
Cam Newton: He’s currently the No. 7 quarterback through three weeks, which is obviously solid considering he was had late in drafts, but knowing he has four rushing touchdowns and isn’t higher is a tad worrisome. He’s thrown just two touchdowns through three games, and his games were against the Dolphins, Seahawks, and Raiders. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have played against Deshaun Watson, Justin Herbert, and Lamar Jackson, but have allowed the 16th-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. Oddly enough, it was Herbert who scored the most fantasy points against them. Those with Newton would love to know that the Chiefs have allowed the second-most fantasy points on the ground to quarterbacks, as they’ve allowed a massive 6.74 yards per carry, and both Herbert and Watson scored rushing touchdowns. That’s where we must look for Newton to score most of his fantasy points, as the Chiefs haven’t allowed more than one passing touchdown in eight of their last nine regular season games. The projected gamescript has Newton passing the ball a lot as seven-point underdogs, but it could also mean more scrambling for yardage, similar to what Jackson did on Monday night. Knowing you’d have to go back to Week 10 of last year to find a quarterback who posted top-10 numbers against the Chiefs is worrisome, but he remains in the QB1 conversation due to his 35 rushing attempts through three games, which provides a stable floor. *Update* Newton has been placed on the COVID list and will not be active for the game. In fact, this game may be postponed all together.

Patrick Mahomes: We’ve seen the numbers escalating for Mahomes through the first three weeks, as he’s scored 20.4, 27.5, and then 40.0 fantasy points in the first three games. After dominating the Ravens on national television, you can’t be concerned about him against any team, including the Patriots. This is not the same team as we’ve seen in years past, and even if it were, Mahomes has played well against them. In three career games against them, he’s posted 310 passing yards per game to go along with eight touchdowns and three interceptions. The Patriots tend to take away the thing that opponents do best, but that’s the issue with the Chiefs; they have so many things they do well, you can’t simply pick one. Despite facing the second-fewest pass attempts in the league, the Patriots rank 13th against fantasy quarterbacks. They’ve allowed a healthy 8.22 yards per attempt and 7.8 percent touchdown-rate. That’s quite a bit different than the 5.99 yards per attempt and 2.3 percent touchdown-rate they allowed last year. That’s what’ll happen when you lose a handful of starters. Knowing that Russell Wilson and Derek Carr combined for 549 yards and seven touchdowns over the last two weeks should give you confidence to start Mahomes as a high-end QB1 (not that you ever won’t).

RBs
Sony Michel, Rex Burkhead, James White, and Damien Harris: This backfield just continues to get muddier. Seriously, it’s ugly. Here are the touch splits through three games.

If there’s something you can take away from that, you’re better than me. Sure, Burkhead has seen his touches ramped up the last two weeks, but if White plays, what do those touches look like? Probably similar to what they were in Week 1. The Chiefs have allowed just one running back touchdown through three games, which have kept their overall numbers down, but the efficiency has been strong. They’ve allowed 4.82 yards per carry and a league-high 10.88 yards per target to running backs. That’s more yards per target than any other team has allowed to wide receivers. This bodes well for the White/Burkhead role, but if both are active, it’s going to be tough to say which is the better option. Michel has played the Chiefs three times in the last two years, totaling 100-plus yards and two touchdowns in two of the games, but the most recent game, Week 13 of last year, he totaled just eight yards on five carries. The matchup isn’t bad. In fact, it’s a very good matchup. Still, you can’t say with any degree of certainty that any of these running backs are going to get 10-plus touches if White is active, and we haven’t even touched on the pending return of Harris, who was close to stealing the starting job before his injury. If White plays, he should be considered a risk/reward RB3, especially in PPR leagues. If White sits, Burkhead becomes someone you should be able to trust as a reliable RB3 with a decent floor with the projected gamescript. Michel is not someone you should aim to start considering he’s maxed out at 11 touches through three weeks and will lose out on goal-line work to Newton most of the time. He’s an RB4. I’ll update the bottom of these notes later in the week.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Through three weeks, Edwards-Helaire is operating as a full-fledged workhorse in what is likely the best offense in the league. He’s totaled 66 of the 86 touches available to running backs, which amounts to 76.7 percent. He’s only scored one touchdown to this point, but don’t worry, better days are coming. The Patriots have been consistent in the production allowed over the first three games, as Myles Gaskin, Chris Carson, and Josh Jacobs all averaged in between 4.24 and 4.44 yards per carry. We haven’t seen a whole lot of production, though, as teams have run an average of just 58.0 plays per game against them, which is the third-lowest number in the league. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have run an average of 70.0 plays per game. Something’s got to give. There were just 11 running backs who totaled more than 13 touches against the Patriots last year, and nine of them totaled at least 10.3 PPR points, though just three of them finished as a top-12 running back. Knowing how much Edwards-Helaire is being used in the passing game the last two weeks (14 targets), he needs to be in lineups as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 in a game they’re projected for 30.5 points.

WRs
Julian Edelman: He’s seen a league-high 51.5 percent of his team’s air yards, which tells you not to panic. We’re not going to be seeing Rex Burkhead, or any Patriots running back, score three touchdowns again, and we always knew Cam Newton wasn’t going to score two rushing touchdowns every game. This is a game where you need to get him back into lineups, as the Chiefs have allowed production to high-volume receivers. The only receivers who’ve seen more than six targets against them have been Will Fuller (8/112/0) and Keenan Allen (7/96/0) who both finished as top-20 receivers. The Chiefs have Antonio Hamilton and Tyrann Mathieu covering the slot for them, which hasn’t been horrific, as they’ve combined to allow 8-of-13 passing for 105 scoreless yards in the slot. The only slot-heavy receiver who was heavily targeted was Allen, who obviously made it work. The Chiefs don’t allow a ton of wide receiver production, so you have to pick your spots with a single receiver from the opposition, and in this game, it’s Edelman. Despite the Chiefs allowing the fewest yards to wide receivers in 2019, Edelman had one of his best games against them, catching 8-of-12 targets for 95 yards and a touchdown. You should plug him in as a mid-to-low-end WR2 this week. *Update* With Newton out, we have to downgrade Edelman a bit, though he’s still a startable WR3. 

N’Keal Harry: After seeing 18 targets in the first two weeks, Harry came back down to earth in Week 3 totaling four targets and finishing with just 34 yards. He’s not someone to consider this week, either. The Chiefs are the team who allowed the fewest yards to wide receivers last year, just 122.3 per game. That’s seemingly continued to be the case in 2020, as they’ve allowed a league-low 106.3 per game. When we like Edelman to post top-30 numbers, it’s going to be difficult to find another receiver to trust on the Patriots. Outside of a touchdown that props up his overall numbers, Harry isn’t likely to crack 50 yards this week, making him a sit.

Tyreek Hill: He’s still yet to top 100 yards this season, but he’s now scored in every game and hasn’t finished outside the top 25 receivers in any of his games, which included matchups with the Chargers and Ravens. The Patriots had major troubles with Hill in their first two meetings when he totaled 7/133/1 and 7/142/3 but have since got a grip on him. Over the last two meetings they’ve held him to 1/42/0 and 6/62/0, which is much more in line with what we’ve come to expect from them. However, this is not the same defense and they’ve been struggling to contain receivers through three weeks, particularly those who are in the slot often. Tyler Lockett caught 7-of-8 targets for 67 yards and a touchdown, while Hunter Renfrow caught 6-of-9 targets for 84 yards and a touchdown last week. Jonathan Jones has been covering the slot for the most part, a cornerback who’s allowed over a 100.0 QB Rating in his coverage since the start of last year. The Chiefs have had Hill in the slot almost 60 percent of the time this year, which makes him even more difficult to bracket in coverage. Start him as a WR1 like you normally would.

Sammy Watkins: I’d say last week was a success for Watkins, who hauled in seven passes for 62 yards against the Ravens top-tier secondary. The week before that, it was a tough go against Casey Hayward where he totaled just 11 yards on three targets. This week isn’t going to be much easier, as Stephon Gilmore is waiting. With that being said, Gilmore hasn’t been untouchable in coverage this year, allowing 10-of-15 passing for 168 yards and a touchdown. The 1.62 yards per snap he’s allowed is tied for the 27th-most among the 109 cornerbacks who’ve played at least 20 percent of the snaps. Still, it’s not likely the Chiefs choose to attack him when Hill and Kelce have a superior matchup. In seven career games against Bill Belichick’s defense, Watkins has topped 60 yards just once and has caught one touchdown. He’s someone who should be rostered for sure, but he’s just a low-end WR4 this week.

Mecole Hardman: We took a big step in the right direction in Week 2 against the Chargers when he played 50 snaps and ran 40 routes, but then went back in the wrong direction last week when he played 29 snaps and ran 22 routes. Meanwhile, Demarcus Robinson played 49 snaps and ran 29 routes. The good news is that Hardman tied a career-high with six targets last week, turning them into 81 yards and a touchdown. I have zero clue why they don’t involve him more in the offense. His efficiency is unrivaled, and through three games, the Patriots are allowing the third-most fantasy points per target. Last year, against a better Patriots team, he saw just one target but turned it into a 48-yard touchdown. He is someone who you just throw into your lineup as a boom-or-bust WR4/5 and understand has a zero-point floor.

TEs
Ryan Izzo: The Patriots tight ends have combined for five targets all season. They are not a part of this offense. There’s no way you’re considering him as a streamer.

Travis Kelce: If you spent a second-round pick on Kelce, you’re extremely happy through three weeks. He was always the safest option, as he’s now posted TE1-type numbers in 31 of his last 35 games. Crazy, right? He’s played against the Patriots six times throughout his career, and it seems Bill Belichick has placed a higher priority in limiting Kelce’s production than Tyreek Hill‘s. Here are Kelce’s totals against the Patriots over the course of his career:

As you can see, Kelce hasn’t topped 13.6 PPR points against them since back in 2014, before he was a household name. Does that continue? Do the Patriots have the personnel to slow him down? Don’t forget they have a few new linebackers and lost both linebacker Dont’a Hightower and safety Patrick Chung to opting out. Knowing that Kelce provided a solid floor even with those guys on the field, you should trust him as you normally would.

Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders

Total: 49.5
Line: BUF by 2.5

QBs
Josh Allen: Over his last 14 games, Allen has accounted for 33 touchdowns with just three interceptions. He’s playing at an MVP level right now and it’s been a fun ride. His first real test was last week against the Rams and he passed with flying colors, throwing for 311 yards and four touchdowns. He’s now thrown for 311-plus yards in three straight games to start the year after failing to throw for 270 yards in his first 28 games in the league. If there were a steroids check in football, he’d be atop the list. Don’t come after me, that was a joke. But serious props to Allen for continuing to improve at a rapid pace. The Raiders are the next team up. Through three games, they’ve allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points, which isn’t all that shocking when you look at their competition. Teddy Bridgwater, who’s thrown two touchdowns to this point, Drew Brees, who looks like a shell of his former self and without Michael Thomas, and then Cam Newton, who was continually missing his targets. They’ve allowed just one passing touchdown in each game but have allowed a respectable 7.43 yards per attempt. They also just lost one of their starting cornerbacks in Damon Arnette to a thumb injury. This is still the same scheme that allowed nine quarterbacks to post top-12 numbers against them last year. The downside is that they just held Josh Allen‘s closest comparison (Cam Newton) to just 162 yards and one touchdown through the air, and just 27 yards on the ground. Going back to last year, they haven’t allowed a quarterback to rush for more than 47 yards. You’re playing Allen as a QB1 while playing at an MVP level, but the Raiders have been better than expected to this point.

Derek Carr: He’s played well through the first three games, but currently sits as the QB20 in fantasy, highlighting why it’s tough to rely on him at any point, as his upside is severely capped. Now likely to be without his top two receivers in Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards, it’s not looking great for Carr in a brutal matchup against the Bills. There have been just four quarterbacks over their last 19 games who’ve averaged more than 7.24 yards per attempt, and those four quarterbacks combined for just four passing touchdowns. All in all, they’ve allowed just 20 passing touchdowns in their last 19 games. This is not a week to start Carr when he’s in a tough spot and shorthanded.

RBs
Devin Singletary and Zack Moss: After missing practice all of last week, Moss was ruled inactive days before the game, which means he wasn’t close with his toe injury. We’ll pay attention to the practice reports as the week goes on, but we should prepare for another Singletary-heavy game. He had his best game of the year in Week 3, compiling 121 yards on 17 touches against the Rams, though he didn’t find the end zone. On to the Raiders, it’s a matchup to attack. 55.3 percent of skill-players production against them has come via the running back position, the highest mark in the league. No one else is above 51.3 percent. They’ve faced the eighth-most running back touches but have allowed more fantasy points to them than any other team in the league, as the 1.34 PPR points per opportunity is the highest in the league. Keep in mind the league leader in that category last year was the Panthers who allowed 1.05 PPR points per opportunity. To be fair, the Raiders did play against Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara the first two weeks, but then when we watch Sony Michel hit 117 yards on just nine carries and Rex Burkhead have a three-touchdown game, it’s time to lock in running backs against the Raiders. Singletary would be a must-play high-end RB2 if Moss is out again, but would fall to low-end RB2 if Moss returns, as he’d lose out on the goal-line touches. Moss is going to be tough to trust unless he practices in full all week. I’ll update his notes at the end of the week, but for now, treat him as a risky RB4. He did return to practice on Wednesday, though in a limited fashion.

Josh Jacobs: The only player with more carries than Jacobs through three games is Derrick Henry. His 13 targets do leave a little bit to be desired, but it does rank 13th among running backs, so it’s a step in the right direction. With the Raiders down two of their top receiving options, Jacobs should have an even bigger role this week. The Bills have played against just one running back who’s totaled more than 13 touches, and that was Darrell Henderson last week who totaled 120 total yards and a touchdown. There were 12 running backs who totaled more than 15 touches against the Bills last year, and in those games, nine running backs finished as top-24 options, including five who finished top-12. If there’s one thing we’ve seen under Sean McDermott, it’s that they’re willing to allow some production on the ground to running backs. Through 51 games as the head coach, they’ve allowed 47 rushing touchdowns. The efficiency on carries has been good, too, as they’ve allowed 4.43 yards per carry this year while allowing 4.37 yards per carry last year. Jacobs is locked into 18 touches in this game and should find his way into the end zone with a team-implied total of 23.5 points. He’s a low-end RB1 this week.

WRs
Stefon Diggs: We’re through three games and Diggs is the No. 4 wide receiver in fantasy football. I’m sorry for doubting you, Josh Allen. The talent has always been there with Diggs, as I’ve dubbed him a top-10 real-life wide receiver, so it’s good to see him come to life in fantasy. His six targets last week weren’t great, but now that John Brown is highly questionable with a calf injury, we should have a minimum eight targets coming his way this week against a Raiders defense that’s played better than expected over the first three weeks, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to receivers. But here’s the thing… they’ve struggled to defend the deep ball, as they’ve allowed over 15.0 yards per reception since the start of last year. They allowed a massive 58 pass plays of 20-plus yards last year, which ranked as the fifth-most in the league. Diggs led the league in receiving on balls that traveled over 20 yards last year. Allen and Diggs have connected on 3-of-3 deep targets for 90 yards to this point. Diggs might be the ninth wide receiver since the start of 2019 to rack up 100-plus receiving yards against the Raiders. Start him as a high-end WR2 this week.

John Brown: He had to leave the game last week due to a calf injury, which means he should be considered unlikely to play, as soft tissue injuries can linger, or even worse, reoccur if you come back too soon. As of now, prepare to be without Brown, but if anything changes, I’ll come back and update. *Update* Brown was upgraded as the week went on and will play in Week 4. The matchup is solid, though it’s worth noting the Raiders have allowed jsut two top-36 wide receivers on the year. I’d consider Brown a high-end WR4 who might cap some of the upside for Diggs. 

Cole Beasley: It feels like we’re still in 2019 with Beasley, who’s a top-30 receiver through three weeks, though no one wants to play him. Even with Diggs on the team, he’s seen at least six targets in every game and is still the safety blanket over the middle of the field for Josh Allen. It’s not a great matchup against the Raiders, however. I mentioned this in the Julian Edelman notes last week: The best performance by a slot-heavy receiver against the Raiders since the start of last year is Keenan Allen‘s eight-catch, 68-yard game where he didn’t even score. We then proceeded to watch Edelman post just 2/23/0 on six targets last week. Lamarcus Joyner has done a solid job in the slot, though you have to wonder how the loss of starting cornerback Damon Arnette will shift the defense around. I’m guessing Joyner stays put and covers Beasley, making him a low-upside WR4 option.

Hunter Renfrow: It seems like Renfrow will be the last man standing for the Raiders. After starting out training camp as the No. 4 receiver on the depth chart, he’s now up to No. 1 with injuries to Henry Ruggs, Tyrell Williams, and Bryan Edwards. It led to him seeing nine targets last week against the Patriots. He’s going to see targets this week, and when he’s seen targets, he’s produced. Here are his game logs in matchups he’s seen more than five targets.

Not bad, eh? Even better news is that the Bills biggest weakness is in the slot. If you go through their games from the start of last year, the top five performances they’ve allowed have been slot receivers. The slot-heavy receivers who’ve played against them this year were Jamison Crowder (7/115/1), Isaiah Ford (7/76/0), and Cooper Kupp (9/107/1). It might feel weird, but Renfrow is someone to consider as a high-end WR4/flex option this week.

TEs
Dawson Knox: He was held out last week with a concussion, and in stepped Lee Smith and Tyler Kroft who combined for 5/25/3 on six targets. Knox hasn’t caught a touchdown yet, but oddly enough, even fourth-string tight end Reggie Gilliam has a touchdown this year. Still, despite Allen throwing for over 1,000 yards through three weeks, the Bills tight ends have combined for just 88 yards. Meanwhile, the Raiders have allowed the fourth-fewest points to the tight end position. Avoid Knox until he starts seeing consistent targets.

Darren Waller: I posted my concerns about Waller last week, but let’s be real, you’re never going to bench a player like him. Get over it and get him back in lineups this week, as he just might see double-digit targets with both Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards out of the lineup. The Bills have actually been a team to attack with tight ends through three weeks, as they’ve allowed the fourth-most yards per target (10.21). The only team who’s allowed more yardage to the position is the Saints, who Waller already crippled for 105 yards and a touchdown. It’s quite the departure from last year when they allowed the second-fewest points to the position, but a lot of that was predicated on the lack of targets. The 1.76 PPR points they allowed ranked as the 14th-most, so right around the league average. The only concern would be if they decided to use Tre’Davious White to cover him considering the Raiders have no perimeter receivers that threaten them. Still, the targets should be there for Waller this week, so start him as a TE1.

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers

Total: 43.0
Line: SF by 6.0

QBs
Carson Wentz: What in the world has happened to Wentz? He looks like a different quarterback this year and the numbers reflect that. He’s completed just 59.8 percent of his passes, thrown three touchdowns, and six interceptions. Keep in mind that two of his games were against Washington and the Bengals. The lack of wide receivers is problematic, but he’s been the biggest problem. The 49ers may have just a 4.50 percent sack rate, but they’re pressuring the quarterback nearly 35 percent of the time, and that’s something Wentz has had problems with this year while his offensive line has crumbled. Oddsmakers have taken note considering their team-implied total is just 18.5 points in this game against a 49ers defense that is missing their two best players in Nick Bosa and Richard Sherman. They might have Dee Ford back for this game, which would help, but it’s not like they’ve needed it, as they’ve allowed a league-low 5.65 yards per attempt and 1.92 percent touchdown-rate. Through the air, they’ve allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Now without Dallas Goedert, it doesn’t make us feel any better about Wentz’s opportunity to bounce back. He’s not a recommended streamer in this matchup. In fact, he’s just a low-end QB2 in Superflex formats.

Nick Mullens: It seems that Kyle Shanahan will hold nothing back with Mullens under center, as he threw 36 passes in Week 3, which is a mark Jimmy Garoppolo hit just three times in 2019. Mullens did well with them, too, completing 28 passes for 343 yards and a touchdown. Keep in mind he did that without George Kittle and Deebo Samuel on the field. While Samuel will remain out, it seems like Kittle should return this week. The Eagles are one of just three defenses who’ve yet to intercept a pass, though they are getting after the quarterback with a 10.5 percent sack rate, which ranks fourth in the NFL. The Giants didn’t get much pressure on Mullens last week, while the Eagles rank second in pressure-rate behind only the Steelers. Their cornerback unit is strong as well, but there have been a lot of moving parts in the secondary, so it’s taken some time to mold as one. It’s tough to find the receiver who’ll produce for Mullens, which makes him difficult to like as anything more than a low-end QB2, though getting Kittle back would certainly help. There are more predictable streaming options.

RBs
Miles Sanders: The good news is that Sanders has continued to take on the workhorse back role in the offense, but the problem is that this team isn’t getting into scoring position very often and now has an 18.5-point team-implied total. The Eagles offensive line has caught a lot of heat this year, but their running backs are averaging 1.38 yards before contact, which is right around the league average. Meanwhile, the 49ers have allowed 1.32 yards before contact to running backs, so it’s a near-even match here, though the 49ers aren’t allowing much beyond that, as their 3.24 yards per carry they’ve allowed indicates. They’ve also allowed just 3.12 yards per target to running backs, which all amounts to a league-low 0.61 PPR points per opportunity. What does that mean? On average, a running back who totaled 15 touches would finish with less than 10 PPR points. Crazy, right? To be fair, the running backs they’ve played have included Kenyan Drake (who finished as the RB17), Frank Gore, and Devonta Freeman, so they’ve hardly been tested. With Dallas Goedert out, it should raise Sanders’ floor in the receiving game, which was already massive with 15 targets through two games. Start him as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 despite the numbers the 49ers defense has put up to this point, as Sanders’ floor is just too high.

Jeff Wilson and Jerick McKinnon: While I expected Wilson to get 15-plus touches last week, the way he got them was not exactly how I expected it. He didn’t play much until later in the game when McKinnon had to step out due to a rib injury. Still, it was good to see Wilson involved in the passing game, collecting three receptions for 54 yards and a score. While the 49ers haven’t ruled out Raheem Mostert, I don’t expect him to play this week, and knowing McKinnon is dinged up, we should see another dozen touches or so for Wilson against the Eagles. Despite allowing three rushing touchdowns through three games, the Eagles have still allowed just the ninth-fewest PPR points per opportunity to running backs. Darrell Henderson was the first one who topped 50 rushing yards against them last week. Going back to the start of last year, a span of 19 games, they’ve allowed just three running backs to rush for more than 66 yards. Still, Wilson is the goal-line back in a game they’re six-point favorites while at home, which is typically the recipe for success. He’s not a must-play, but he is someone who should at least be able to deliver mediocre RB3-type numbers. As for McKinnon, he’s more of a wildcard due to his injury which has been described as a rib contusion. It could be the reminder to the 49ers that he’s not a durable running back meant for a three-down role. They could also decide that they’re going to put him out there in a similar role to last week, which had him net 18 opportunities. Let’s pay attention to his practice participation this week. For now, I’ll say Wilson is the preferred option because I’m assuming he’s limited, but McKinnon isn’t far behind.

WRs
DeSean Jackson: It seems like Jackson is a long shot to play on Sunday night, as he suffered a hamstring injury in Week 3. An aging wide receiver who relies on quickness is going to have major issues playing through an injury like that, so assume he’s out. If anything changes for him as the week goes on, I’ll come back and update. *Update* He’s been ruled out. 

Alshon Jeffery: He got in a few limited practices last week, so there’s a chance he plays this week, though you’ll want to stay tuned for updates. Ideally, you wait it out with him and ensure he makes it through a full game before trusting him. It’s not like it’s a cake matchup, either. The 49ers have allowed just 1.48 PPR points per target, and that’s despite missing Richard Sherman the last few weeks. It hasn’t been due to lack of trying, as teams have targeted receivers 68 times over three weeks, which ranks as the sixth-most in the NFL. If you’re desperate, Jeffery can be used as a WR4 (if he’s trending towards playing) due to the lack of options in this offense, but ideally, you’re letting him sit on your bench until he (and Wentz) proves he’s good to go. *Update* He’s been ruled out. 

Greg Ward: It was Ward who stepped up in the absence of Jalen Reagor, DeSean Jackson, Dallas Goedert, and Alshon Jeffery last week, racking up 11 targets and turning them into 8/72/1 against the Bengals. Ward has played over 80 percent of his snaps in the slot this year but did move to the perimeter a bit more last week when Jackson had to leave. 7/43/0 of his production came in the slot, while the only ball he caught on the perimeter went for a 29-yard touchdown. That’s the good news. The bad news is that the matchup against the 49ers, and specifically K’Waun Williams in the slot, is a tough one. He’s coming off a game where he held Golden Tate to just five catches for 36 yards on seven targets. Going back to last year, the only slot-heavy receivers who had solid games were Tyler Boyd (WR9), JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR21), Tyler Lockett (WR21), Larry Fitzgerald (WR23), and Chris Godwin (WR31). Do you notice a trend? All but one of those receivers is a big-slot, while Ward is just 5-foot-11 and 190 pounds. He’s likely going to see five-plus targets in this game, but it’s hard to say he’s anything more than a WR4/5 option. *Update* With both DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery out, Ward can be moved up into high-end WR4 territory. 

Brandon Aiyuk: After getting his feet wet with his first NFL game in Week 2, the 49ers threw Aiyuk into the fire last week, peppering him with eight targets and getting him three carries out of the backfield. He responded well, turning those 11 opportunities into 101 yards and a touchdown. The only issue with him this week is that he’s the clear-cut No. 1 receiver on the 49ers, which likely draws coverage from Darius Slay. The Eagles have had their issues as a team, but Slay has been very good, allowing 10-of-16 passing for just 87 yards. Keep in mind he’s covered Terry McLaurin, Robert Woods, and A.J. Green through three weeks. Aiyuk is still the top receiver in this offense, but if they get Kittle back this week, Aiyuk is no longer the top option. He should be rostered, but this isn’t a must-play matchup against the Eagles. Consider him a low-end WR4 for this game who would get a bump if Kittle were held out again.

Kendrick Bourne: He’s now seen at least five targets in each game this year and has also totaled at least 63 yards in each of the last two games, so you can no longer ignore him. He’s playing all over the formation, but if we see the Eagles use Darius Slay to shadow Aiyuk, that would leave Bourne with a plus matchup against one of Trevor Williams (has been ruled out), Cre’Von LeBlanc, or Jalen Mills. The Eagles moved Mills back to safety this year, but they may need to move him back to cornerback with the injury to Avonte Maddox because Williams and LeBlanc are typically slot cornerbacks. It’s a situation that has a lot of uncertainty, so you could do worse than Bourne as an emergency WR5. He’s not sexy, but the 49ers have to move the ball somehow, and he has the best matchup of the receivers.

Deebo Samuel: In a surprising move, Kyle Shanahan is saying that Samuel will play this week. If he’s not rostered in your league, you should add him immediately. Unfortunately, it’s not a week I would recommend starting him, as he’s coming off a serious injury that required surgery and will likely be on a snap count.

TEs
Zach Ertz: With Dallas Goedert now on the shelf, Ertz will be a target monster. Not that he wasn’t already, as he’s averaged 8.0 targets per game through the first three weeks, but with all the injuries at wide receiver, he’s a near lock to hit that number. It would actually be helpful to him to get Alshon Jeffery back on the field, as it would take away some of the attention that opponents put on Ertz. As odd as it sounds, Ertz has averaged more fantasy points in the 36 games Jeffery has played since joining the Eagles than in the 12 games he hasn’t, and keep in mind that’s while seeing 1.6 fewer targets per game. In short, his efficiency goes way up. The 49ers have not been a team to start tight ends against in both 2019 and 2020, as they allowed a league-low 5.52 yards per target in 2019 (no other team allowed less than 6.14 YPT), and have allowed just 4.07 yards per target in 2020. To be fair, they’ve played against Evan Engram, Chris Herndon, and Dan Arnold this year; three tight ends who’ve struggled in general. There were just two tight ends who totaled more than eight targets against the 49ers last year, and both those tight ends (Jacob Hollister and Tyler Higbee) totaled 19-plus PPR points. It’s not a great matchup, but when you have a tight end who’s going to see eight-plus targets, you start him.

George Kittle: It seemed like Kittle was getting close to returning last week but was ultimately ruled out before Sunday, which meant he had no chance of playing. It also means that he’s no lock to play this week, but I’m remaining hopeful. The matchup against the Eagles has been great, but it may be even better. The Eagles moved on from Malcolm Jenkins this offseason and then moved cornerback Jalen Mills to safety. That was a downgrade, but it was their solution. Now that their starting cornerback Avonte Maddox is out, they may be moving Mills back to cornerback, which would obviously move a backup into a starting safety slot. Everyone knows the Eagles linebackers aren’t the best in the business, either. The Eagles safeties and linebackers have combined to allow 30-of-37 passing for 330 yards and three touchdowns in their coverage. If Kittle plays, which is seems like he is after returning to a full practice on Wednesday, he should smash.

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers

Total: 58.0
Line: GB by 7.5

QBs
Matt Ryan: What’s the recipe for fantasy points for a pocket passer? A bad defense. Fortunately, the Falcons have come through in that aspect, allowing at least 30 points in each of their first three games. Missing Julio Jones proved to be problematic against the Bears, though losing Russell Gage early in that contest wasn’t great, either. But now, onto Week 4, the Falcons defense is projected to allow 32.8 points this week. The Packers games have netted 77, 63, and 67 points through three weeks, so we should see plenty of fireworks out of the Falcons offense. The Packers defense is pressuring opposing quarterbacks just 21.8 percent of the time, which is the third-lowest mark in the league, and also part of the reason they’ve allowed a massive 8.41 yards per attempt and a 7.5 percent touchdown-rate. The reason they rank 12th instead of being a bottom-five defense is due to their opponents averaging just 55.0 plays per game, which is the second-lowest mark in the league. But still, to know they’ve allowed 28.3 points per game despite those low play counts is massive. Ryan should be chucking the ball up 40-plus times in this game, so knowing the Packers have allowed the third-most fantasy points per actual pass attempt should get you excited. He’s in for a top-10 week and maybe top-five.

Aaron Rodgers: So far, on the Rodgers “don’t forget about me” tour, we’ve seen him complete 67.0 percent of his passes, average 8.4 yards per attempt, and throw nine touchdowns without an interception. While Aaron Jones has went off early-on, Rodgers has remained a top-six quarterback. Going against the Falcons is the icing on the cake. Through three games, they’ve allowed 38 points to the Seahawks, 40 points to the Cowboys, and 30 points to the Bears. This defense is generating just a 4.26 percent sack rate, while the Packers have allowed just a 1.85 percent sack rate. They aren’t getting to Rodgers, so when that’s the case, they’re relying on their cornerbacks to hold their own in coverage. Let me be clear: That hasn’t happened. The Falcons have already allowed 77.52 fantasy points through the air alone, which is 4.8 more fantasy points than any other team, so the fantasy points they’ve allowed haven’t come from mobile quarterbacks. Lastly, the Falcons have allowed 129.97 fantasy points per game to the combination of quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. There is just one other team who’s allowed more than 110 fantasy points per game. Oh, and the Falcons are without two starting cornerbacks this week, which weren’t good to begin with, and might be without Pro Bowl defensive tackle Grady Jarrett. There’s no reason to fade Rodgers as a QB1 this week.

RBs
Todd Gurley and Brian Hill: If you’ve watched the Falcons this year, you can tell Gurley isn’t going to turn a corner any time soon. You can watch guys like Joe Mixon and think, “He looks good, just hasn’t quite hit yet.” You cannot say that about Gurley. He’s essentially a running back who’s getting what’s blocked, and fortunately for him, the Falcons offensive line ranks eighth in terms of yards created before contact for their running backs. Against the Packers, we might see another competent fantasy performance out of Gurley, though. They’ve allowed a massive 5.38 yards per carry through three games, including a rushing touchdown every 18.7 carries. That’s where Gurley has to make his mark because if he doesn’t score, he’s not offering much. Fantasy managers found that out when he totaled just 6.1 PPR points in a game against the Cowboys. The worst part for Gurley is that this team has had a big lead each of the last two weeks, and it’s led to 35 carries for 141 yards and one touchdown. The projected gamescript and pace of this game favors pass-catching backs, and Gurley has just two targets over the last two weeks, and that’s with Julio Jones out of the lineup last week. In terms of pass routes run, it’s been Gurley 47, Hill 35, and Ito Smith 29, so it’s split three ways with a quarterback who’s not checking down very much. Knowing no running back has totaled more than 12 carries against the Packers, combined with Gurley’s limitations in the passing game, he’s a bust-risk this week, though touchdowns might save him, as he’s gotten 75 percent of the Falcons touches inside the 10-yard-line. He’s a RB2/RB3 who’s more touchdown dependent than most in that range. Hill is someone who should be rostered with the way Gurley has looked, though you can’t start him just yet with just 22 opportunities through three weeks. Whoever gets the most usage in the passing game will likely be the most valuable this week, but there’s no clear-cut answer among them.

Aaron Jones: Remember when Jones finished as the No. 2 running back in fantasy football last year and no one thought it was possible for him to do it again? Well, through three games, he’s in the exact same spot. He’s playing lights out and there’s no way the Packers could limit his workload considering he’s averaging a monstrous 6.1 yards per carry while scoring five total touchdowns. Now onto the Falcons, who have actually done a great job limiting opposing run games over the first three weeks, as no team of running backs has totaled more than 95 yards on the ground, which includes Chris Carson and the Seahawks, as well as Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys. That didn’t stop either of those running backs from finishing as top-eight running backs, as they both found the end zone at least once while racking up six receptions apiece. That’s been a continuing theme under Dan Quinn – the Falcons allowing tons of receptions to running backs. Jones has averaged 1.86 yards per route run, which ranks sixth among running backs with at least 10 targets. On top of that, the Falcons might be without interior lineman Grady Jarrett this week, as he’s dealing with a hip injury that forced him to leave last week’s game. The Falcons are a team you choose to pass on most of the time, but as Jones has shown, he’ll get it done anywhere the team needs him to. He’s a must-play RB1 every week.

WRs
Julio Jones: He didn’t practice at all last week, but the extra day of rest before this game likely allows Jones to get back on the field. Stay tuned for updates to his status. If he does play, it seems his primary matchup might be against Kevin King. I say that because the Packers aren’t able to gameplan for Jones because he might not play, and on top of that, it’s not like you want to leave Calvin Ridley unattended to. Because of that, I’m guessing that Jaire Alexander and King play their normal sides, which would put Jones against King. That is great news. Over King’s three-plus years in the league, he’s seen 166 targets in coverage and has allowed 98 receptions for 1,543 yards and nine touchdowns in his coverage. He may have 4.4-speed, but he’s continually beaten over the top. If Jones practices throughout the week, even in a limited capacity, you should be trusting him in your lineups this week. The reward is worth the risk coming off the hamstring injury. *Update* Jones has practiced in a limited fashion all week and is expected to play in this game. 

Calvin Ridley: He’s the No. 1 wide receiver through three weeks. No, not a WR1… the WR1. He also ranks second among wide receivers in targets, so it’s not just efficiency. With Julio Jones questionable to play on Monday night in a game that has a 58-point total, you already know you’re starting Ridley. The only question is: Do you play him in your DFS Showdown lineup? The Packers have Jaire Alexander at LCB most of the time (when he’s not shadowing) which is where Ridley plays most of his snaps. He’s their best cornerback, though he’s not untouchable. On 14 targets in coverage this year, he’s allowed nine catches for 83 yards and a touchdown. Still, he’s allowed just 0.83 yards per snap, which ranks as the 24th-lowest among 98 cornerbacks who qualified. But part of that reason is due to the miniscule 48 targets they’ve faced through three games. The 2.14 PPR points per target they’ve allowed as a team to wide receivers is actually the fourth-most in football. We know Ridley’s getting a lot of targets this week, right? Well, the chart below shows the games he’s seen eight-plus targets over the course of his career. Start him as a WR1, and yes, he’s worth playing in Showdown lineups. *Update* Ridley is dealing with an ankle injury that has limited him in practice this week, though he’s expected to play. 

Russell Gage: After taking a big hit early in the Week 3 game against the Bears, Gage was ruled out for the remainder of the game with a concussion. He’s going through the protocol, and it’s good that he has an extra day available to get through it. The Packers have been a team who receivers have been efficient against, allowing 2.14 PPR points per target (fourth-highest in the league), but just haven’t faced a lot of volume. Receivers have averaged just 16.0 targets per game against them, and that’s something that’ll change in Week 4, as the Falcons have targeted their receivers an average of 28.7 times per game. In the two full games Gage played, he totaled 21 targets, and this game has a massive 58-point total. Chandon Sullivan is the Packers slot cornerback who’s played admirably through the first three games, allowing just 9-of-13 passing for 129 scoreless yards with an interception. But again, he’s only been targeted 13 times on the season. If Gage is active, he should be expected to net six-plus targets, though we may not know if he’s playing until Sunday. I’ll keep you updated here at the bottom of his notes, but for now, consider him an iffy WR4/5, as there are a lot of good wide receiver options in fantasy this week. *Update* After getting a full practice in on Friday, Gage appears to be good to go for this week’s game. 

Davante Adams: We don’t have any information on Adams and whether he’ll play this week, but I’ll update the notes here as the week goes on. They called his hamstring injury “minor” so it’s possible he plays here. The matchup against the Falcons is one you don’t want him to miss, as they’ve been among the worst secondaries in the league, and they’re going to be down two starting cornerbacks. Isaiah Oliver is the cornerback who’ll see Adams most of the time is healthy, though that’s not necessarily a bad thing for Adams. Through three games, Oliver has allowed 257 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage alone. By comparison, the Chiefs have allowed 319 yards and one touchdown to wide receivers as a whole. This is not much different than Oliver’s first two years in the league where he allowed close to a 105.0 QB Rating in his coverage. If Adams plays, you’re going to want him in your lineup as a WR1. If you’re able to snag someone like Marquez Valdes-Scantling off the waiver wire as a last-minute replacement, you can take the risk of playing him.

Allen Lazard: Are we witnessing a star in the making? Through three weeks, Lazard has picked up right where he left off in 2019, churning out 16.9 PPR points in three of his last four regular season games. It certainly helped that Davante Adams was out last week, which led him to seeing a team-high eight targets against the Saints. Now on to play a Falcons team while his team is projected for 32.8 points. The Falcons brought in Darqueze Dennard this offseason to help take care of their slot issues, but he was just placed on IR. That means they’ll go back to Blidi Wreh-Wilson, a long-time backup. He was forced to play the slot against the Bears last week and wound-up allowing 5-of-7 targets to be completed for 57 yards and a touchdown. There’s a reason he’s only played 446 snaps over the last four years. It’s a plus-matchup for Lazard, who is clearly on the WR3 radar. Even if Adams plays this week, he might be a bit limited in the gameplan, making Lazard a relatively safe play. *Update* Lazard has to had core muscle surgery and is out indefinitely, so get him out of lineups. 

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: It may not have led to much yet, but it’s only a matter of time before there’s an explosion from Valdes-Scantling. He’s averaging a league-high 18.4 air yards per target and has received 32.2 percent of the Packers air yards through three weeks. Meanwhile, Lazard is at 21.9 and Adams is at 19.1 percent (though he missed one game). The Falcons have allowed a league-high 15.66 yards per reception to wide receivers through three weeks and are now down two starting cornerbacks. Knowing the Packers are projected for 32.8 points as a team and that Adams is going to be questionable with his hamstring, Valdes-Scantling is a sneaky upside play this week. He’s seen 17 targets from a red-hot Aaron Rodgers, so it’s not like it’s too much of a dart throw. You should definitely have some shares in your Showdown lineups. *Update* With Allen Lazard now out indefinitely, Valdes-Scantling should be considered a candidate for six-plus targets per game. He should offer high-end WR4 startability this week and has more upside than some boring wide receivers in the WR3 range. 

TEs
Hayden Hurst: It’s been a season filled with mixed emotions as a Hurst manager. We should’ve expected limited results in his first game, which happened when he posted 3/38/0 on five targets. We then took a big step in the right direction in Week 2 when he saw eight targets and turned them into 5/72/1. Then, in Week 3, without Julio Jones and Russell Gage (for most of the game), he saw just three targets against the Bears, catching just one of them. It was for a touchdown, but we’re experiencing major volatility. I’m not willing to back off him this week, especially when the game has so many implied points. The Packers have allowed the eighth-fewest points to tight ends this year, but that’s because they’ve seen a league-low 12 targets against them. From an efficiency standpoint, they’ve allowed the most yards per target (11.58) in the NFL, which most stems from the 91.7 percent completion-rate they’ve allowed to them. If Hurst gets the targets, he should produce in this matchup. Knowing that both Julio Jones and Russell Gage are both questionable, it’s possible they build the gameplan around him a bit more. I’m willing to trust him as a low-end TE1 with upside. It certainly helps that he ranked fifth among all tight ends in routes run, too.

Robert Tonyan: Through three games, the Packers tight ends have accounted for a respectable 18 targets, though they’ve been spread out quite a bit. The target total has been Tonyan 8, Jace Sternberger 5, Marcedes Lewis 3, Josiah Deguara 2. The only one who’s actually done anything with their targets is Tonyan, as he’s turned in 7/75/2 on his eight targets. He also ran nearly three times the pass routes as any other Packers tight end last week. I know what you’re thinking… why are we talking about the Packers tight ends? Well, because here are the performances from each tight end that’s played against them through three weeks: Greg Olsen 4/24/1 on four targets, Dalton Schultz 9/88/1 on 10 targets, and Jimmy Graham 6/60/2 on 10 targets. When the Packers are projected for 32.8 points, you need to look at all the options available, and Tonyan has showed some potential lately. If you’re looking for a hail mary start at tight end, Tonyan wouldn’t be the worst option. If you’re playing multiple Showdown lineups, I suggest you throw Tonyan in a few of them.

Denver Broncos at New York Jets

Total: 39.5
Line: DEN by 1.0

QBs
Brett Rypien: It wasn’t the greatest debut for Jeff Driskel as the starter in a Broncos uniform and they didn’t give him much of a leash. Instead, they’ll go to Rypien against the Jets. He’s going to have a much better chance to succeed against the Jets defense than Driskel did against the Bucs. The Jets are not a good defense, but teams haven’t had to do much through the air to beat them. The pass attempts against them have decreased every week. From 46 to Josh Allen in Week 1, to 27 from the 49ers quarterbacks in Week 2, to just 25 from the Colts quarterbacks in Week 3. The Broncos are just looking to get out of this game with a win and won’t risk anything if they’re out in front. So, if you’re looking for a surprise performance out of Rypien, that’d require the Jets to actually put points on the board, something you don’t want to count on from a team that’s averaged 12.3 points per game through three weeks. The reason you can consider him in Showdown lineups is due to his pass-catching corps that is much more talented than that of Sam Darnold. It’s not likely to be exciting in a game that has a total under 40 points, regardless.

Sam Darnold: There have been many highs and lows throughout Darnold’s short career to this point, and while his touchdown pass in Week 3 was a thing of beauty, his mistakes were even worse as two of his three interceptions were pick-sixes. You’d have to go all the way back to Week 15 of last year to find the last time he scored more than 11 fantasy points, and you’d have to go all the way back to Week 12 of last year to find the last time he topped 17 fantasy points. He’s lacking healthy options in the passing game, his offensive line is still a big problem, and Adam Gase is the topper on the cake. Starting left tackle Mekhi Becton was also hurt (shoulder) in last week’s game, so he’s unlikely to play on a short week. The Broncos defense is not the unit we thought they could be to start the year, as they’ve allowed Ryan Tannehill, Ben Roethlisberger, and Tom Brady to throw for seven touchdowns through three games, including each of them totaling at least 18.2 fantasy points. They all totaled at least 38 pass attempts, which is likely due to the fact that they struggled to run the ball with any consistency. We all know the Jets have an issue running the ball at all, so we should see Darnold reach the upper 30’s in this matchup. Unfortunately, that hasn’t meant much to Darnold. Since the start of last year, he’s thrown the ball 36-plus times in five different games, but he’s scored 13 or less fantasy points in four of them. Darnold may have a future in this league, but with the way the team is currently running, you can’t consider him anything more than a QB3.

RBs
Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay: After totaling 39 touches over the first two games, Gordon came back down to earth in Week 3, totaling just 12 touches even with Lindsay out of the lineup. Knowing Lindsay practiced in a limited fashion last week, the assumption was that he’d play in this game. There were many expecting a big game out of Jonathan Taylor last week after the Jets allowed the 49ers running backs to amass 184 yards and two touchdowns on the ground against them in Week 2, though big chunk runs were responsible for much of that. If you were to remove just the one 80-yard run from Raheem Mostert in Week 2 where he set a land-speed record (kidding, but he did set a NextGenStats speed record), the Jets have allowed 3.62 yards per carry this year rather than the 4.65 it shows on the season totals. Last year, it was 3.16 yards per carry in the same scheme. However, the good news is that running backs are averaging 31.3 touches per game against the Jets through three weeks due to the incompetence of their offense. That’s allowed six different running backs to hit double-digit PPR games against them, though none have finished with more than 18.7 PPR points. Going back to last year, they allowed six RB1 performances on the season, though just four of them finished with 20-plus PPR points. Bottom line is that Gordon should have a rock-solid floor in this game, but he may not come with a massive ceiling. Consider him a high-floor RB2 this week. Even if Lindsay plays, he is going to be tough to trust in his first game back from a multi-week injury, and the expectation should be that they ease him back in. Even going back to Week 1, he had seven carries and just one target through a majority of the game. He’s a weak RB4 at the moment.

Frank Gore and La’Mical Perine: We saw Adam Gase try to get the rookie Perine on the field during their Week 3 blowout against the Colts, though Gore still led the team with 16 opportunities. The snaps were Gore 26, Perine 20, and Kalen Ballage 15. The expectation should be that Perine’s role continues to grow, but Gase’s affinity with Gore won’t stop. These are two of the slower-paced teams in the league, as the Jets are averaging just 58.3 plays per game while the Broncos are averaging 63.3 plays per game and have a backup quarterback under center. The Broncos have allowed two 100-yard rushers through three weeks, but they’ve allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per opportunity. Every time a running back gets a target or carry, the average outcome has been just 0.65 PPR points, meaning volume is paramount to their success. Both Derrick Henry (34 touches) and James Conner (18 touches) each saw plenty of it, while Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette didn’t. Gore has now scored two rushing touchdowns on his last 464 carries. Meanwhile, the Broncos have allowed just eight rushing touchdowns on 447 carries since the start of 2019. Gore has zero upside, so why do it to yourself? He should total his usual 4-8 PPR points, which isn’t anything more than an RB4/5. Perine isn’t someone you’re contemplating in fantasy football right now.

WRs
Jerry Jeudy: The good news is that he saw nine targets in Jeff Driskel‘s first start. The bad news was that they turned to Brett Rypien for this week’s game. It’s not the greatest, but him getting nine targets without Drew Lock is certainly something worth latching onto. It’s also worth noting that Jeudy saw three targets on Rypien’s nine pass attempts. The downside to this matchup for Jeudy is that he’s running most of his routes from the slot, which is where the Jets best cornerback might be. Since joining the Jets, Brian Poole has played as one of the better slot cornerbacks in the game, allowing just 317 yards and one touchdown on 66 targets in coverage. It’s not to say it’s an untouchable matchup, as there were five slot-heavy receivers who posted top-30 performances against the Jets last year, but it’s just not as great as some might think. Knowing Jeudy leads this team with 24 targets, he needs to stay on your radar as a WR3 most weeks, including this one. The Jets have allowed wide receivers a 73.2 percent catch-rate, which ranks as the third-highest in football. The unfortunate part is the quarterback situation, which is hardly ideal. That has to knock him down a notch when considering Jeudy or another player in the same range. Because of that, it’s best to view him as a high-end WR4 for this game.

K.J. Hamler: Many were calling for a Hamler breakout last week, and though it didn’t happen, he did see a respectable five targets. The Bucs defense isn’t allowing quarterbacks much time to get the ball down the field, and that’s the role Hamler has been playing in this offense, as his average of 15.6 air yards per target ranks as the 13th-highest mark in the league. The Jets are getting some pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but not to the extent of the Bucs. The Jets also lack speed on the perimeter, as Blessuan Austin runs a 4.56-second 40-yard dash, while Quincy Wilson runs it in 4.54 seconds. Even if the Jets went back to free-agent acquisition Pierre Desir in coverage, he’s a 4.5 guy. Hamler can get behind this defense if Rypien is given time. If you’re looking for someone who can pay off on one play, it’s Hamler. I’d recommend waiting to see the connection with Rypien before trusting him in season-long leagues, but in showdown formats, Hamler makes sense.

Jamison Crowder and Braxton Berrios: It seems like Crowder is going to play this week after getting in limited practices all week. Berrios has filled in twice and has delivered on both occasions. Despite seeing just 12 targets from a quarterback who’s struggling, he’s managed to turn them into 123 yards and two touchdowns. Still, this is Crowder’s slot gig when he’s healthy, which makes Berrios a non-factor if Crowder is active. The Broncos have done a lot of shifting around this season, and after A.J. Bouye‘s injury, they’ve been forced to start rookie Essang Bassey in the slot. He’s not ready to be a consistent presence in the NFL yet and has allowed 8-of-9 passing for 63 yards and a touchdown in his coverage. There’s risk with both of these receivers though, as Crowder could always aggravate his hamstring, while Berrios won’t get on the field much if Crowder stays on it. As long as Crowder is active, he’s the preferred option, but should be treated as a high-variance WR4 coming off a multi-week soft tissue injury.

TEs
Noah Fant: In the two games without Courtland Sutton on the field, Fant has racked up 16 targets. The concern with him coming into the season was the abundance of options they had to throw to, though the biggest one evaporating has allowed him to be a must-start. The Jets were not a team to target with tight ends last year, but the loss of Jamal Adams may have proven to be too much. After allowing just 1.50 PPR points per target with him last year, they’ve allowed 2.76 PPR points per target to tight ends without him this year. Best of all, we’ve seen backup tight ends produce. Both Jordan Reed and Mo Alie-Cox were both getting opportunities because their starter was out/limited, but they both managed to find the end zone. The loss of Adams combined with the loss of C.J. Mosley has proven to be too much for the Jets. Consider Fant a low-end TE1 who is dealing with some poor quarterback play, but he’s overcome it for the most part.

Chris Herndon: We usually follow the targets with tight ends, but with Herndon, that’s not even worth doing right now. He’s seen a decent 16 targets but has just 63 scoreless yards on them. That’s a minuscule 3.9 yards per target, and it’s not like this team will be in scoring position very often to have a touchdown bail him out. The Broncos allowed just five tight ends to finish as TE1s last year against them, and though Jonnu Smith finished as a top-eight option against them in Week 1, no tight end has topped 49 yards through three games. It’s going to be tough for anyone to trust Herndon until his efficiency picks up and it’s tough to say this is a matchup where it should come back.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.