The Primer: Week 4 Edition (2020 Fantasy Football)

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

Total: 51.5
Line: ARI by 4.0

QBs
Kyler Murray: He’s now finished as the QB5, QB5, and QB10 in the first three weeks, as his legs are doing damage. His 187 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns are both the highest in the league at the quarterback position. If we can get his passing numbers boosted, he’ll take the leap into the top-three conversation, as he’s averaged just 7.0 yards per attempt while throwing four touchdowns and five interceptions. It should help him knowing the Panthers cannot get pressure on the quarterback. Through the first two weeks, they averaged just 10.0 and 14.3 percent pressure rates, which are two of the worst three marks on the entire season. It makes sense considering they have just two sacks compared to 114 pass attempts against them. This means a lot to Murray, as he’s been the worst quarterback in the NFL when under pressure, posting a 17.0 QB Rating. Those closest to him are Mitch Trubisky, Dwayne Haskins, and Daniel Jones. His passer rating is a much higher 100.5 when he’s kept clean. Oddly enough, though, no quarterback has averaged more than 7.97 yards per attempt against the Panthers, and none of Justin Herbert, Tom Brady, or Derek Carr have thrown for more than one touchdown. It’s nuts but their finishes have been QB20, QB24, and QB29. All in all, the total fantasy points per game the Panthers have allowed ranks 17th, so around the league average. Running backs have outproduced quarterbacks by 30.5 points, which is the largest gap in the league. Murray is still a QB1 but it’s a week where Kliff Kingsbury should lean on the run a bit more.

Teddy Bridgewater: Through three weeks, Bridgewater ranks seventh in the NFL for passing yards (871), ahead of guys like Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, and Deshaun Watson. That’s the good news. The bad news is that he’s not converting those into touchdowns, as he has just two on the year. No of the other 10 quarterbacks who’ve thrown for more than 800 yards has thrown fewer than five touchdowns. The Cardinals have been a relatively average pass defense through three games, allowing a pedestrian 7.75 yards per attempt and a 5.15 percent touchdown-rate. They have yet to intercept a pass on defense, though. It’s worth noting that Bridgewater has had a tough start to the schedule, playing against the Raiders, Bucs, and Chargers defenses, all of whom have allowed less than 7.5 yards per attempt on the season. The Cardinals are the best matchup he’s had on the year, so he should be considered a stable QB2 in this game. The downside is that the Cardinals opponents have averaged just 61.0 plays per game, which could limit the overall volume of Bridgewater. No quarterback has thrown the ball more than 33 times against them this year. Still, with a game total of 51.5 points, he has some appeal. Start him in 2QB/Superflex leagues with little hesitance, though there are better options in 1QB formats.

RBs
Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds: I’m with you. It’s been a bad start to the season for Drake, who’s averaged a respectable 4.1 yards per carry, but he’s caught just five passes through three games, and has found the end zone just once. He’s still getting 74.7 percent of the running back touches in this backfield, so in games where they’re projected to run a lot of plays, he should be in for a big performance. Last week was surely a disappointment, but don’t hang onto that because you don’t want to miss his Week 4 performance against the Panthers. Through their last 19 games, they’ve now allowed 34 rushing touchdowns, including seven of them in their three games this year. Those touchdowns came courtesy of Josh Jacobs, Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones, and Austin Ekeler. Outside of their games with the Panthers, do you know how many touchdowns those running backs have scored? ZERO. This is Drake’s chance to get right and pad his fantasy stats. They’ve allowed 1.23 PPR points per opportunity and Drake hasn’t had fewer than 18 opportunities in a game yet. Start him as an RB1 and reap the benefits. I’m willing to go back to him in cash games as well. Knowing the Panthers have already allowed six running backs to finish as the RB43 or better, even Edmonds has RB4 appeal this week.

Mike Davis: In the first game without Christian McCaffrey, the Panthers gave Davis 22 of the 24 running back opportunities, so it’s fair to say he’s the workhorse until further notice. He wasn’t particularly efficient on the ground, but it was a tough matchup against the Chargers, and he made up for that while catching eight balls (for the second straight week) for 45 yards and a touchdown. It’s a much better matchup this week, and one that actually suits his role quite well. The Cardinals have allowed 10.1 yards per target to running backs over the first three weeks, which ranks as the second-most in the league. The 2.26 PPR points per target they’ve allowed also ranks as the second-most. Knowing Davis has seen 17 targets over the last two weeks, this matchup bodes well for him. The Cardinals have also allowed a respectable 4.36 yards per carry, so it’s not like he can’t do anything on the ground, either. I’d consider him a stable RB2 this week, particularly in PPR formats.

WRs
DeAndre Hopkins: Through three games with the Cardinals, Hopkins is on pace for 197.3 targets. Maybe we were all onto something when we said he wouldn’t see the 150 targets a year he saw in Houston. That was a joke. It’s not just the targets, either. He’s averaging 9.6 yards per target (tied for his career-high) and is on pace for 1,899 yards. Knowing that Murray has averaged just 7.0 yards per attempt to this point, that’s great news for Hopkins, as he can seemingly improve. The Panthers secondary has only seen 53 wide receiver targets through three weeks, which ranks as the eighth-fewest, and that’s thanks to their run defense continually struggling. The Cardinals have thrown the ball 56 percent of the time when they’re in a neutral gamescript, so they’re not going to just run the ball. Hopkins will see Donte Jackson if he’s on the field, as he hurt his toe in Week 3. It’s hardly a matchup to worry about even if he’s on the field, as he’s allowed 9.7 yards per target over the course of his career in coverage, which is more than Hopkins’ 9.6 yards per target this year. He’s also allowed a touchdown every 14.3 targets. Go ahead and start Hopkins as the high-end WR1 you always would. He should have appeal in cash lineups, though it’ll be tough to afford him. *Update* Hopkins did not practice all week and is highly questionable. The Cardinals GM said they’ll leave it up to Hopkins on whether or not he plays, so stay tuned. 

Christian Kirk: He was scratched last week with a groin injury and didn’t practice at all, so it seems unlikely they’ll play him this week, but we’ll pay attention to updates. You’re not going to be trusting Kirk in his first game back regardless, as he didn’t do anything before this injury.

Larry Fitzgerald and Andy Isabella: Both of these two played in the slot, but it was Isabella who came through with two touchdowns and 20.1 PPR points. You’d have to go back to Week 1 of last year to find the last time Fitzgerald scored more than 15.4 PPR points. Don’t get caught up thinking this is an every-week occurrence because Isabella ran just 15 pass routes on the day while KeeSean Johnson ran 31 of them. So, Isabella is getting on the field in 4WR sets, which shouldn’t be required very much against the Panthers. I’d rather let someone else trust Isabella in their lineup.

D.J. Moore: While playing for a team who’s going to be dropping back to pass a whole lot, we know the targets will be there, but what about the value of those targets? Well, Moore has a 49.2 percent share of the team’s air yards, so he’s certainly a buy-low candidate in fantasy. The Cardinals aren’t going to use Patrick Peterson in a shadow role every week, meaning Moore’s matchup will be mixed with Peterson, Byron Murphy, and Dre Kirkpatrick. The trio has played much better than the Cardinals did last year, as they’ve allowed just 1.64 PPR points per target to receivers, which is much better than the 1.80 PPR points per target they allowed last year. Still, it’s a small sample size, and two of those games were against the 49ers and Washington receiving corps. Oddly enough, it’s Peterson who’s had the most issues, allowing a 108.0 QB Rating in his coverage. The only receivers who’ve seen more than five targets against the Cardinals were Terry McLaurin and Kenny Golladay, who both finished with 17.7-plus points and a top-24 performance. Moore is coming off a game the Panthers won, which led to just four targets in a brutal cornerback matchup, but in their two losing efforts, he totaled 22 targets. I’m willing to bet he bounces back in this matchup, so get him back into lineups as a solid WR2.

Robby Anderson: I’ll admit that it’s an issue we view D.J. Moore as a must-play every week, yet Anderson has almost as many targets (26-24) and we consider him a borderline starter. Anderson has a higher catch-rate, more receptions, yards, touchdowns, and fantasy points. Oddly enough, D.J. Moore has the deeper average depth of target. Are we that tainted by the days of Anderson in a Jets uniform? Probably. The Cardinals play sides, so Anderson won’t have one specific cornerback he’ll see in coverage. Despite playing against the 49ers and Washington receivers in two of their three games, they’ve allowed 10 pass plays that have gone for 20-plus yards, which ranks as the 10th-most in the league. The Panthers have targeted wide receivers on 66.3 percent of their pass attempts, which is huge, while the Cardinals have only faced a wide receiver target on 47.4 percent of their pass attempts. It might be time to trust Anderson as a WR3 in fantasy football, as he’s been consistent in his new uniform.

Curtis Samuel: It seems the new Panthers coaching staff has figured out that Samuel is just never going to be efficient with his opportunity as a high-volume receiver. Over the last two weeks he’s totaled just six targets and it’s increased his productivity. He’s also totaled eight carries over those two games, allowing fantasy managers to use him as a receiver with a semi-decent floor as he’s getting guaranteed touches. For what it’s worth, the Cardinals allowed 51 rushing yards on just six carries to wide receivers last year. Knowing the Cardinals have allowed just one receiver over 57 yards this year, you’re not starting Samuel as anything more than a decent floor WR5-type option. His role is just too unpredictable.

TEs
Dan Arnold: His target totals through three weeks are 2, 4, and 2, which includes the game last week where Christian Kirk didn’t play, so that’s not good. The Cardinals tight ends as a whole are getting just an 11.5 percent target share, which wouldn’t be enough to start as one player. You’re not considering a Cardinals tight end.

Ian Thomas: There was a time where fantasy analysts thought Thomas could be a late-round sleeper at tight end, as he’d produced in small sample sizes the last few years. However, this is a new offense with a new quarterback, and he’s no longer someone who should be rostered. He has four targets… on the season. This isn’t the 2019 version of the Cardinals defense that allowed one million points to tight ends. In fact, no tight end has totaled more than 53 yards against them through three games.

Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears

Total: 44.5
Line: IND by 2.5

QBs
Philip Rivers: After one game in a Colts uniform, we were like, “Yeah, okay. Rivers can be a solid streaming option with 46 pass attempts.” Two weeks later and we see he’s attempted just 46 more pass attempts over the span of two games. You also need to subtract Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman from the offense, who are both out indefinitely. Now off to play a Bears defense that’s yet to allow a top-20 quarterback performance. Keep in mind they’ve played against Matthew Stafford, Daniel Jones, and Matt Ryan. None of them were able to top 7.07 yards per attempt or one passing touchdown, while each of them threw an interception. In fact, going back to the start of last year, the Bears have allowed just one quarterback to average more than 7.72 yards per attempt. They haven’t allowed three passing touchdowns in any of those 19 games, either. Rivers played against them with the Chargers last year, completing just 19-of-29 passes for 201 yards and one touchdown, finishing as the QB26 on the week. If you can help it, bench Rivers this week, even in 2QB/Superflex leagues.

Nick Foles: It’s his job moving forward. The final stat line against the Falcons could’ve looked better or worse, depending on how you look at it. There were two touchdowns that were overturned (one rightfully so), but there were also a few errant passes that should’ve been intercepted, though the Falcons secondary is just bad. Since the start of 2015, Foles has totaled more than 18 fantasy points just twice, and that’s over a span of 24 starts. He’s not going to be fantasy gold, though he can provide value in 2QB leagues most weeks. But as for this week, the Colts games have netted just 115.3 plays per game, easily the lowest in the NFL. No other team averages less than 122 plays. That has helped them allow fewer fantasy points per game to their opponents than any other team in the NFL. Combining all quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, the Colts have allowed just 58.2 PPR points per game. No other team has allowed fewer than 68.5 points per game, and just one other team (49ers) has allowed fewer than 81.0 fantasy points per game. This is not a great matchup to attack, especially considering the Colts are sacking the opposing quarterback on a very-high 10.7 percent of dropbacks. Over the last two weeks, we’ve watched them hold Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins to just 28-of-54 passing for 281 yards, one touchdown, and six interceptions. Do I believe they’re that good? No, probably not, but they’re certainly not a must-attack defense. Foles is just a QB3 this week.

RBs
Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines: It hasn’t been the explosion fantasy managers were expecting when Taylor took over the starting job with the Colts, as he’s racked up a solid 48 carries, but he’s averaged just 3.8 yards per carry and scored twice on them. He’s currently the No. 15 running back through three weeks and now set to go against the Bears tough run defense. Going back to the start of last year, there have been just three running backs who’ve hit the century-mark against them, and one of them was in Week 17 in a throwaway game. The good news is that running backs get plenty of opportunity to rack up the touches, as there have been 15 running backs who’ve totaled at least 15 touches against them in their last 19 games. Both Adrian Peterson and Todd Gurley were able to accumulate 80-plus yards on the ground against them, so it’s not like it’s a must-avoid matchup, but rather one that caps upside. We knew the opting out by Eddie Goldman would impact this defense, but they’ve allowed 0.94 PPR points per opportunity in 2020, which ranks as the eighth-most through three games, with the majority of that coming on the ground, as they’ve allowed 4.93 yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns. Meanwhile, they’ve allowed just 4.71 yards per target and 22.9 PPR points through the air, which is the eighth-fewest in the league. This matchup suits Taylor’s skillset better than it does Hines, so keep plugging Taylor in as a high-end RB2 who’s getting great workloads, even if he’s not crushing his opportunity just yet. Hines bounced back and saw 12 opportunities last week, which restores confidence, and it’s possible he’s even more involved now that Campbell and Pittman are out, though the Bears have done well with pass-catching running backs to this point. Still, I’d guess he sees at least 10 opportunities, which makes him a flex/RB4-type option in a tough matchup.

David Montgomery: Now that Tarik Cohen is out for the year with a torn ACL, this is Montgomery’s backfield. While Cordarrelle Patterson will be involved, it’s hard to see his current workload of 5.0 carries per game go up. That would mean Montgomery would inherit most of Cohen’s 7.7 opportunities per game. This moves Montgomery into 20-touch potential most weeks, including games like this one where it’s projected to be competitive. Unfortunately, it’s not a great matchup against this Colts defense, who, under Matt Eberflus, have allowed just one 100-yard rusher through 35 regular season games. It doesn’t help that their opponents have averaged just 51.3 plays per game this year, limiting opportunity. Running backs have averaged just 24.3 touches per game against the Colts, which is the sixth-lowest mark in the league. Even going back to the start of last year, the Colts allowed just nine top-20 running backs in their last 19 games. Montgomery may have a bigger workload, but he’ll need it to perform in this game. Consider him a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 in this tough matchup, just know that his ceiling isn’t very high.

WRs
T.Y. Hilton: Through three games with Philip Rivers, Hilton currently sits as the WR69 on the season. That’s not great, especially when you consider Parris Campbell has missed essentially two games and Jack Doyle missed one game. Hilton has just 17 targets, 10 receptions, and 133 yards on the season, which amounts to less fantasy points than Tim Patrick. This matchup is a problem with his lack of yardage, as the Bears are the only defense in the league who’s still yet to allow a single wide receiver touchdown (check Monday night game). On the season, they’ve allowed just 1.30 PPR points per target, which is the lowest in the league, and it’s not without plenty of volume, as they’ve faced the second-most targets to wide receivers. Hilton won’t see more of Kyle Fuller or Jaylon Johnson in coverage, as he moves back and forth while the Bears play sides. If you’re expecting a Hilton bounce-back, that’s fine, but this may not be the best week to bet on that. Sheer expected volume is what carries into low-end WR3 territory, but he’s not very exciting.

Zach Pascal: The Colts are now without both Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman indefinitely, meaning Pascal is a surefire every-down player moving forward. Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean very much against the Bears defense that’s allowed just one receiver to post more than 13.1 PPR points through three weeks despite facing the second-most targets to wide receivers. Pascal played most of his snaps in the slot for the second straight week, so it appears that’s his new home. The Bears have Buster Skrine covering the slot, and though he might be the weakest link, he hasn’t been bad with the Bears over his 19 games, allowing 66-of-99 passing for 649 yards and four touchdowns. That’s just 6.56 yards per target and a touchdown every 24.8 targets in his coverage. Pascal might have some appeal, but against the Bears, there are better options out there.

Allen Robinson: He finally had his breakout performance of 2020 in Week 3 when he tallied 10 catches for 123 yards and a touchdown, though it should’ve actually been 11 catches for 144 yards and two touchdowns (bad reverse on the review). The good news is that the move to Foles didn’t hurt at all to his target total, as he finished his ninth straight game with eight-plus targets. He’s actually seen 10-plus targets in six of them. The Colts haven’t allowed a receiver more than 64 yards this year, but they also haven’t played a receiver who’s being targeted as much as Robinson. In fact, they’ve faced just one receiver who’s seen more than five targets. They’ve faced just 39 wide receiver targets through three games. Why though? On a per-target basis, they’ve allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per target (2.12). Their perimeter cornerback duo of Xavier Rhodes and Kenny Moore is nothing to run from, even if Rhodes has intercepted two passes this year. Over his last 19 games, he’s allowed 70-of-88 passing for 866 yards and six touchdowns. Those were his first two interceptions last week… against the Jets. Robinson will see all of the Colts cornerbacks, but Rhodes most. I’m saying Robinson wins that matchup and performs as a low-end WR1.

Anthony Miller: The Bears got Miller on the field a lot more last week, though much of it came due to them falling behind big early in that game. He’s playing slot-only which means he comes on the field for 3WR sets, which the Bears run 57 percent of the time. He’s unfortunately not a full-time player, and that’s a shame considering he’s a very talented player. The Colts have Kenny Moore defending the slot, a fourth-year cornerback who’s been their most stable presence at cornerback over the last few years. But the Colts do play a lot of zone, and that’s allowed slot receivers to be quite efficient with their targets. So far, it’s been Keelan Cole 5/47/1 on five targets, Justin Jefferson 3/44/0 on three targets, and Braxton Berrios 4/64/1 on four targets. That’s about as efficient as it gets. Unfortunately, opponents have run an average just 51.3 plays per game, so if Miller is on the field just over half the time, that’s around 30 snaps expected, which is not enough to play him confidently. He’s a risky WR4/5-type option.

TEs
Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox: Once you let the genie out of the bottle, you can’t put him back in, right? Well, the Colts did their best to make sure Alie-Cox fell back behind Doyle last week while playing him on just eight pass plays while Doyle was in on 16 of them. That didn’t stop Rivers from targeting Alie-Cox on three of those routes, which amounted to 3/50/1 while Doyle didn’t see a single target. It’s tough to trust anyone in this tight end unit, but with all the injuries at wide receiver, someone is going to be relevant. The Bears have allowed a 75 percent completion-rate to tight ends through three games, including 1.99 PPR points per target, which is the 12th-most in the NFL. Both T.J. Hockenson and Evan Engram totaled 56-plus yards, but then we saw Hayden Hurst total just one catch for one yard in Week 3, though it was a touchdown. If you’re trusting one of them, it should be Alie-Cox based on what we’ve seen the last two weeks. He’s a risky TE2 but one who comes with some major upside. Doyle is not someone you can play coming off a game with zero targets, as he might not be completely healthy at this point.

Jimmy Graham: Will Graham become a thing in his age-34 season after failing to produce in back-to-back years with Aaron Rodgers? Probably not, but we have to remain open to the possibility now that he’s seen 17 targets over three games. More importantly, he’s seen five targets inside the 10-yard-line which ranks as the most in the NFL. The Colts were a mediocre defense against tight ends last year, nothing worth avoiding, though they’ve been much better in 2020 and are currently the best team in the league at defending the position. They’ve only seen 14 tight end targets through three weeks, but on those targets, they’ve allowed just six receptions for 32 yards. That’s 2.29 yards per target. To be fair, they’ve played against Chris Herndon, Tyler Eifert, and Kyle Rudolph/Irv Smith, but that’s still mighty impressive. Knowing the Colts have allowed their opponents a league-low 15.0 points per game, it’s not a week to rely on a touchdown from Graham. He’s not a recommended streamer in this tough matchup.

Baltimore Ravens at Washington Football Team

Total: 47.0
Line: BAL by 13.5

QBs
Lamar Jackson: What in the world happened to the Ravens offense last week? Jackson had no rhythm and it felt like they were a boxer who was knocked down early and just could never fully stand up again. Jackson currently sits as the No. 12 quarterback on the season, which is something that no one really thought possible if he were healthy. To be fair, though, he’s scored fewer than 17.5 fantasy points just twice over the last 18 games. The Washington defense is likely to feel the wrath of the Ravens offense’s struggles from last week boiled over, and it doesn’t help them knowing they’ll be without one of their best edge rushers in Chase Young, who suffered a soft tissue injury during their Week 3 loss. That will surely help Jackson, as his offensive line has allowed him to be pressured 38.5 percent of the time through three games, which ranks as the fifth-highest mark in the league. It also helps to know that we’ve seen another highly-mobile quarterback in Kyler Murray obliterate this defense for 32.1 fantasy points back in Week 2 with Young, rushing for 67 yards and two touchdowns. It should be known that Murray had also rushed for 69 yards versus Ron Rivera’s defense in Carolina last year, so they clearly have a hole against the quarterback’s mobility. You’re going to be starting Jackson as you normally would, and you should get a performance that’s worthy of where you drafted him. His price didn’t come down due to him playing on Monday night, so it’ll be tough to fit him in cash game lineups, though it may be worth it. He’s an excellent play in tournaments this week.

Dwayne Haskins: Through three games, Haskins’ fantasy performances have netted 12.8, 11.7, and 9.2 fantasy points under Scott Turner. That’s obviously not going to get things done, even in a Superflex/2QB format. Not only that, but Ron Rivera said there’s a “cut-off point” for him with Haskins and he’s close. You’re not playing him against the Ravens under any circumstance.

RBs
Mark Ingram, JK Dobbins, and Gus Edwards: As mentioned in the Jackson notes, the Ravens simply lost their way last week and Jackson’s struggles had a butterfly effect down the entire roster. Through three games, Ingram has just 26 carries, which is nowhere near enough. In fact, none of the Ravens running backs have enough touches, as they’ve combined for 54 carries and seven receptions. That’s an average of 20.3 touches for a backfield that’s averaging 5.91 yards per carry and 8.11 yards per target. They need more touches. Running backs have averaged a healthy 29.0 touches per game against Washington, which is more than enough, though the 0.77 PPR points per opportunity ranks as the 10th-lowest mark through three weeks. That mark looked much better through two weeks, but Nick Chubb crushed them for 108 rushing yards and two touchdowns last week, with most of it coming after both Matt Ioannidis and Chase Young left the game. We already know Ioannidis is out for the year, while Young isn’t going to play this week. The matchup is clearly better than it was a few weeks ago and the Ravens have to know they need to get back to what works. Ingram is likely to be the leader in carries, but he can’t be trusted as anything more than a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 while averaging just 9.3 touches per game. Dobbins played a season-high 24 snaps in Week 3 and it appears he’s their favorite passing-down back, but he’s totaled just 15 touches through three games. In a game they’re expected to win (by a lot), it’s a hit-or-miss RB4 game for him where there may be enough to go around between them, but this game does favor the Ingram and Edwards roles.

Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic: After playing 43 snaps in the Week 2 game against the Cardinals, Gibson fell back down the ladder last week and finished with just 25 snaps played, which paled in comparison to J.D. McKissic who played 34 snaps. But most importantly, in a game like this where they’re expected to fall behind early, it plays more into McKissic’s role, as he’s played 59 pass snaps to this point while Gibson has played just 44 of them. That’s not to say it’s static and cannot change, but it’s reflected in their targets as well, as McKissic has nine to Gibson’s seven. When playing against a team like the Ravens, volume is extremely important, as they’ve allowed the sixth-fewest points per opportunity to running backs through three weeks. It’s not to say you can’t run the ball on them – they’re allowing 4.20 yards per carry – but the opportunity to do so consistently is tough. They’ve only faced 25.0 running back touches per game, so when you start splitting those up, there are problems playing any of these backs confidently. Knowing they’ve allowed no touchdowns to running backs through three games, it’s not even wise to search for one of those. Gibson is just a low-upside, low-end RB3 this week while McKissic is a low-upside RB4/5-type option.

WRs
Marquise Brown: It’s starting to feel a bit like 2019 again, doesn’t it? Brown has now totaled less than 50 yards in 13 of his last 15 games. He has seen a consistent six targets in each game, but with the efficiency coming back down to earth for Lamar Jackson, it’s floated down to Brown. We talked about the matchup last week, that it was much tougher than most realize. Washington has actually been a lot better than anyone expected them to be, though much of that is due to the insane pass-rush they were bringing. That pass rush lost a few members last week, which should allow the receivers more time to work. With that being said, he has a matchup that he can absolutely explode this week if Jackson is given time to throw down the field. Brown will see Ronald Darby in coverage for much of the day, a cornerback who has allowed a ridiculously high 18.2 yards per reception since the start of last year. He’s allowed a massive 11.2 yards per target and a touchdown every 12.2 targets in his coverage during that time. As is always the case, Brown is a boom-or-bust WR3, and this could be a matchup we get one of those “boom” performances. He’s not a cash game play but is great for tournaments.

Terry McLaurin: He finished with a respectable 83 yards last week, though his performance should’ve been a lot better, as Dwayne Haskins was continually off the mark, including a pass to the back end of the end zone where McLaurin had a clear three yards between him and the closest defender. Unfortunately, it’s going to take some much more precise passing against the Ravens defense, as their cornerbacks don’t allow much separation. Despite getting absolutely obliterated by Patrick Mahomes last week, the Ravens have still allowed the 13th-fewest fantasy points per target to receivers. There have been seven receivers who’ve seen at least six targets against them, yet just two have finished as top-24 receivers (both Chiefs receivers). I’m not worried about McLaurin’s talent level, but in a matchup like this, he needs his quarterback to take advantage of separation immediately, or that separation is gone. Marcus Peters is coming off one of his worst games, but everyone has bad days, so we can’t consider it a trend. McLaurin is a risky high-end WR3 this week with the way Haskins is playing right now. *Update* McLaurin was downgraded as the week went on and did not practice on Friday. He’s being called questionable for this game. 

TEs
Mark Andrews: The season started off well when Andrews caught 5-of-6 targets for 58 yards and two touchdowns, but since that game he’s caught just 4-of-11 targets for 51 yards and no touchdowns. Part of it is on Lamar Jackson, though some of it is on Andrews, as he dropped three passes Monday night. It was not a great showing but we can’t dwell on a bad game too much. Washington has already allowed three tight end touchdowns on the year, as well as a 100-yard performance to Dallas Goedert back in Week 1. That was before their pass-rush took a giant hit, which should allow Andrews more time to find space in the secondary. Washington’s secondary allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends last year, though they were not being coached by Ron Rivera. Still, looking back at the Panthers under Rivera last year, they allowed 8.99 yards per target, which ranked a close-second to the Cardinals’ 9.02 yards per target. Keep Andrews in your lineup; he should bounce back this week.

Logan Thomas: The good news is that Thomas has seen 24 targets through three weeks, which ranks as the third-most among tight ends. Great. He’s totaled 12 catches, which ranks 10th. He’s totaled 94 yards, which ranks 21st. He’s scored 27.4 PPR points, which ranks 18th. We follow the targets at tight end, but we can’t ignore the inefficiency between Thomas and Haskins. The Ravens are obviously a good defense while allowing just 22 points combined in the two non-Chiefs games. But as for tight ends, they haven’t been very good at limiting their efficiency. Tight ends have seen a combined 27 targets against the Ravens, and those targets have turned into 21 receptions for 235 yards and two touchdowns. Sure, Travis Kelce was involved in those totals, but so were Austin Hooper, David Njoku, Jordan Akins, and Darren Fells. Many will chase the volume with Thomas, and while I’m usually with that, I’m struggling to say he’s anything more than a TE2 with a decent floor.

New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams

Total: 47.5
Line: LAR by 13.0

QBs
Daniel Jones: It hasn’t been the breakout season some were expecting coming into the year, as Jones has thrown for just two touchdowns and four interceptions through three games. He’s had a tough start to his schedule for sure, and is now dealing with injuries, but that won’t change in Week 4 when they play the Rams. Jones has now started 15 games during his short NFL career. He’s scored fewer than 15 fantasy points in nine of them. That’s the definition of boom-or-bust, but mostly bust. The teams he’s posted more than 17 fantasy points against were Washington, Tampa Bay, New York Jets, and Detroit, and all of them came last year. Meanwhile, the Rams had allowed just one passing touchdown to the combination of Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz before Josh Allen completely dismantled them in Week 3. Despite Allen’s performance against them last week, they’ve still allowed just 7.12 yards per attempt. The Giants offensive line is no match for Aaron Donald and company, either. Jones has been pressured a league-high 41.5 percent of the time while the Rams have pressured the quarterback more than all but four teams. While under pressure, Jones has a 35.7 QB Rating, which obviously doesn’t bode well for him. Jones is someone you should avoid this week if at all possible.

Jared Goff: I was hard on Goff last year and have been to start this year, but I’m noticing a trend in what Sean McVay is doing and it’s setting Goff up for success. Goff has averaged just 6.0 air yards per attempt, which ranks as the second-lowest in the NFL. It’s smart getting the ball out of his hands, as Goff struggled while holding onto the ball and trying to push the ball down the field. His average depth of target was almost two full yards more than it’s been in 2020. Goff has only thrown over 20 yards down the field five times this year, and it’s worked, as he’s completed 5-of-5 for 139 yards and a touchdown. Last year, he completed just 17-of-56 passes over 20 yards for 544 yards, one touchdown, and four interceptions. Them not forcing the ball down the field is working well. The Giants have faced just 96 pass attempts though three weeks, which ranks as the seventh-fewest in the league, and it’s also why they’ve allowed the 11th-fewest points to the position. Goff himself has only thrown 31, 27, and 32 passes this year, so we may not see a whole lot of volume in this game. He doesn’t necessarily need a lot of volume to be a streamer against a defense that’s allowed 7.94 yards per attempt and a 6.3 percent touchdown-rate. Goff should be considered a streamable high-end QB2, even if his ceiling isn’t very high considering the lack of competition on the other sideline. I’ll leave you with his chart in the 16 games he’s been favored by seven or more points.

RBs
Devonta Freeman: It was said that he knew about half the playbook going into last week’s game, so it was expected that he’d play limited snaps. The snaps went Dion Lewis 20, Wayne Gallman 18, Freeman 15, though Freeman got five of the 10 carries. He should be in the primary role this week, though they’re big underdogs in this game and the Giants running backs as a whole have averaged just 1.80 yards per carry behind this line. If Freeman wants any chance of success, it’s got to come in the passing game. The Rams have allowed a healthy 0.93 PPR points per opportunity to running backs, but they’ve averaged just 26.3 touches per game. That’s another issue considering the Giants running backs themselves average just 18.0 touches per game. This is a backfield to avoid until we see Freeman earn a majority of the snaps, but even if he does this week, it may not amount to more than 12 touches. He should be considered a weak RB4 option for now.

Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown, and Cam Akers: If you’ve watched any Rams game this year, you can see that Henderson should be the lead back. He’s run like he’s a man that knows he can lose the job at any moment and has played extremely well in back-to-back tough matchups. In games against the Bills and Eagles, he’s amassed 201 rushing yards on 35 carries (5.7 yards per carry) with two touchdowns, and then chipped in with another three catches for 46 yards. He’s been the No. 10 running back in fantasy over the last two weeks. We don’t know if Akers will be back this week, but it shouldn’t matter all that much if he is active, as Henderson would need to screw something up to lose his lead role. The Giants have allowed three different running backs to finish as top-15 options over the last two weeks, and they’ve allowed points in a variety of different ways, as they allowed 124 rushing yards in Week 1, then 119 rushing yards in Week 2, but then held the 49ers running backs to just 62 rushing yards in Week 3. Still, they’ve allowed 170 receiving yards to running backs over the last two weeks. Opposing running backs have averaged just over 30 touches per game against them this year, so even if we see Brown mixed in, it should be another 16-plus touch game for Henderson. Similar to Ronald Jones, Henderson may be on a short leash, but it had to have gotten longer after his performances the last few weeks. Consider him a mid-tier RB2 who may come with more risk with most in that range, but it should be worth it. Brown will mix in and will likely get 8-10 touches in this game, but with the way Henderson is playing, you can’t trust him as anything more than an emergency RB4. If you have Akers rostered, you just have to wait it out and consider him as a handcuff right now.

WRs
Darius Slayton: As expected, Slayton saw a sturdy seven targets last week against the 49ers. Unfortunately, that didn’t lead to much production. That’s going to happen in tough matchups, though the 49ers defense was nowhere near the same. It’s not going to get easier for Slayton this week against the Rams, as he’s likely to see Jalen Ramsey for much of the game. Even if he doesn’t get shadowed, Darious Williams has been playing well on the other side. The two perimeter cornerbacks have combined to allow just 16 receptions for 190 yards on 27 targets to this point and a large part of it has been due to the pressure created up front. Slayton’s average depth of target is just 12.6 yards, which is manageable, though much higher than Golden Tate‘s 6.1 yards. The good news to this point is that any receiver who’s seen more than five targets (there have been five of them) against the Rams has totaled at least 10.9 PPR points and finished as a top-40 receiver. When you have a receiver who’s likely to lead his team in targets and see six-plus targets, you should at least consider him, even if this is a tough matchup. Slayton should be considered a low-end WR3 who should come with a semi-decent floor.

Golden Tate: Coming off his hamstring injury from training camp, it should’ve been expected that he’d be eased in. He’s now caught five passes in back-to-back games, though they haven’t amounted to much. Both matchups were brutal against the Bears and 49ers, but he’s finished in WR5 territory in both games. The Rams are a good pass defense, but their weakest link is in the slot, where Tate plays. They moved Troy Hill into the slot this year, which has not panned out. Through three weeks, Hill has allowed 20-of-22 passing for 217 yards in his coverage. The slot is a much different position to play than the perimeter where you have the sideline as an additional defender. Hill has proven to be a below-average slot cornerback. If you’re dealing with injuries at wide receiver and need someone who’ll deliver a solid floor in this game, Tate should deliver at least WR4 numbers in this game, particularly in PPR formats.

Robert Woods: I wasn’t big on Woods last week, though he was able to take a screen play for a 31-yard touchdown, turning a below-average matchup into one where he finished as the WR11 on the week. Woods has seen just 11 targets over the last two weeks, with a large part of that being the fact that the Rams are limiting Goff’s pass attempts. Overall, Woods has a sturdy 21.1 percent target share. The Giants have James Bradberry covering opposing No. 1 receivers most of the time. He has played extremely well outside of two plays against JuJu Smith-Schuster when he was essentially screened in the route and allowed two touchdowns. After that first game, he held Allen Robinson to just three catches and 33 yards on nine targets. But that’s the thing with Woods – he’s not used like Robinson. He’s targeted closer to the line of scrimmage. In fact, his 4.0-yard average depth of target is the lowest in the NFL among receivers with at least 10 targets. That’s not the type of receiver Bradberry is used to covering, so this could be an interesting matchup. If you haven’t learned by now, just keep Woods in your lineup as a WR2 and get the decent floor he offers with some upside sprinkled in. As a bonus, the Giants have allowed 64 rushing yards and a touchdown to wide receivers, which is the most in the league. Woods has seven carries through three games.

Cooper Kupp: For all the talk about Kupp struggling to get on the field or the perimeter, it was quite a bit overblown, and he’s showing that through three games. Despite Goff throwing the ball just 90 times through three weeks, Kupp currently sits as the No. 18 wide receiver in PPR formats. If the pass attempts come up, we could see him approach WR1 territory with his 23.3 percent target share. The Giants have struggled to defend the slot this year, allowing 11-of-17 passes to be completed for 130 yards and two touchdowns. They’re going to be trusting Darnay Holmes on Kupp for most of the day, which is a recipe for disaster. He’s a fourth-round rookie that has almost no experience. As seen in Goff’s notes above, he’s strived in games where they’ve been seven-plus-point favorites. You should be starting Kupp as a strong WR2 this week.

Josh Reynolds and Van Jefferson: This had been a timeshare through the first two weeks, but that changed in Week 3 when Reynolds played 62 snaps to just eight for Jefferson. In fact, Jefferson has lost snaps each week (33, 26, 8), while Reynolds’ snaps have gone up (37, 42, 62). If you want to roster one right now, it appears it should be Reynolds, though I don’t see enough passing in this game for him to be a reliable fantasy option. The lack of competition on the other side of the ball will limit pass attempts, and it’s why receivers have averaged just 18.7 targets per game against them.

TEs
Evan Engram: While Engram has been short on production, he hasn’t been short on opportunity. He’s seen 20 targets through three games, which ranks seventh among tight ends, tied with Jonnu Smith and Dalton Schultz. The difference is that Engram is averaging just 4.8 yards per target. So, when you see that the Rams have allowed tight ends just 4.62 yards per target, it seems like a tough marriage for fantasy points. This is the same team that allowed 8.50 yards per target to tight ends last year, but they are in a new defensive scheme. Prior to the Bills backup tight ends combining for three touchdowns last week, we watched Blake Jarwin, Dalton Schultz, Zach Ertz, and Dallas Goedert combine for just 95 yards and no touchdowns against them. There are pass attempts to go around, which is what usually gets excited to stream tight ends, but Engram has been so underwhelming with his volume, it’s tough to say he’s anything more than a high-end TE2. If he turns into the old tight end who we used to draft as a top-six option, he is getting more than enough volume to produce.

Tyler Higbee: The snap counts look good for Higbee, but there are some serious concerns. His pass routes have declined every week (22, 17, 16), and it’s clearly affected his production. The sad part is that he’s averaging more fantasy points per route (0.81) than any other tight end in the league. The Rams are using both Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods extremely close to the line of scrimmage, which is eating into the targets that Higbee used to get. His 11 targets rank 22nd among tight ends through three weeks. The Giants have done well against tight ends in their new defensive scheme, as they’ve allowed just 10-of-17 passing for 123 yards and no touchdowns. That amounts to just 1.31 PPR points per target, which is the fifth-lowest mark in the league. The good news for Higbee is that starting safety Jabrill Peppers is dealing with an ankle injury that is likely to hold him out. Blake Martinez isn’t one of the top linebackers in coverage, either. The lack of volume from the offense combined with Higbee’s declining pass routes have us concerned, but it’s hard to say there’s better options to be streamed. Knowing Goff has played well in matchups like this should give us that nudge to continue trusting him as a TE1, though there are warning signs.