Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans

Total: 51.5
Line: HOU by 4.0

QBs
Kirk Cousins: What’s been Cousins’ issue through the first three games? Pressure. He’s been pressured on a ridiculous 41.1 percent of his dropbacks, which is the second-highest mark in the league, behind only Daniel Jones. The Texans are not generating pressure. Over the first three games, they’re pressuring the quarterback on just 26.3 percent of their dropbacks, which is bottom-10 in the league. They are also one of just three teams who has yet to tally an interception. Their opponents have averaged a robust 69.3 plays per game, which bodes well for Cousins, as we know they want to be a run-first team. Despite being behind in every game, the Vikings have called a passing play on just 53.8 percent of their plays, which is the ninth-lowest percentage in the league. This actually matches up with what the opponents have done against the Texans, as they’ve called a passing play on just 47.6 percent of plays, the lowest mark in the league. Now, with that being said, the 51.5-point total on this game screams fantasy points, even if the Vikings are four-point underdogs. Still, how much can we like Cousins considering the Texans have played against Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Ben Roethlisberger, but have yet to allow a top-12 performance? I’m expecting this to be a very heavy Dalvin Cook performance, though Cousins could be a solid contrarian DFS tournament play because you can throw the ball on this defense. In season-long leagues, I wouldn’t want to trust him as more than a middling QB2 considering just how much the stars align for Cook.

Deshaun Watson: It’s been a rough start to Watson’s career without DeAndre Hopkins, as the star quarterback has yet to register a top-10 performance through three weeks. The worst part is that he’s not running the ball a whole lot, as his 12 carries rank outside the top-10 at quarterback. It doesn’t help that his team has run just 54.0 plays per game, which ranks as the second-fewest to only the Vikings, who are on the other sideline. The Vikings opponents have been able to sustain long drives and have averaged a robust 72.0 plays per game this year. Only the Seahawks and Falcons have allowed more. Teams have still gone run-heavy against them, as they’ve faced just 35.3 pass attempts per game. It surely helps that quarterbacks have been efficient while completing 69.8 percent of their passes for 8.48 yards per attempt (fourth-most in the NFL). He’s going to have to get it done through the air, as the Vikings have allowed the fewest rushing fantasy points to quarterbacks in each of the last two seasons. Seriously, through 19 games since the start of 2019, they’ve allowed exactly 10.4 fantasy points on the ground to quarterbacks. But looking at his team-implied total of 27.8 points, that’s a very good sign for his fantasy prospects. You should have him in your lineup as a solid QB1 this week who should live up to his draft position in this matchup.

RBs
Dalvin Cook: His role is growing as the Vikings run more and more plays. His touch totals have gone 14, 16, and 24. Despite being behind in every game, the Vikings have called a passing play on just 53.8 percent of their plays, which is the ninth-lowest percentage in the league. This actually matches up with what the opponents have done against the Texans, as they’ve called a passing play on just 47.6 percent of plays, the lowest mark in the league. It should come as no surprise that they’ve already allowed three running backs to finish with 15.7 or more PPR points, including James Conner‘s 159-yard, one-touchdown performance. He had holes the size of Texas to run through last week and didn’t offer much in terms of creativity to his runs. On the season, they’re allowing a massive 5.84 yards per carry. The 502 rushing yards they’ve allowed are the most in the league while the 592 total yards they’ve allowed to running backs are the second-most. There’s no logical reason to avoid Cook this week, as he should make a big RB1 splash. He’s someone to play in both cash and tournament lineups.

David Johnson: With Duke Johnson out the last two weeks, David Johnson has managed to total 28 of the Texans 30 running back touches available. It seems they’re expecting Duke back this week after he participated in practice most of last week, so the workload will get a bit smaller for David. The Vikings weren’t supposed to be a great match for running backs, but that’s not the case. Through three games, running backs have managed to rack up 107 total touches against them, which leads the league. That’s large in part to do with the 72.0 plays per game that their opponents are averaging. They’re allowing more yards per carry on the ground (4.43) than they are yards per target through the air (3.67) to running backs through the first three games. Each starting running back has totaled at least 16 carries, including at least 25 carries to both Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry over the last two weeks. The Packers, Colts, and Titans have all totaled at least 29 running back touches. This is great news for Johnson, who should be relatively fresh after totaling just 28 touches over the last two weeks in brutal matchups against the Steelers and Ravens. As a home favorite with an implied team total of 27.8 points, the stage is set for Johnson to get back into RB2 territory this week. As for Duke Johnson, he should be able to get more than a handful of touches, though his strongest suit is in the passing game, where the Vikings have actually done a good job with running backs. Don’t play him as anything more than an emergency RB4/5.

WRs
Adam Thielen: It’s odd to see that Thielen, who has 21 targets on the season, has accounted for 48.9 percent of the Vikings air yards. It just goes to show how little they’ve thrown the ball to this point. Will that change going on the road to play a Houston team that’s allowed their opponents 69.3 plays per game? The Texans secondary has been better than expected while holding receivers to just 10.1 yards per reception, which ranks as the second-lowest number in the league. That’s accompanied by a 70.4 percent completion-rate, so it’s more of a dink-and-dunk pass attack against them. Thielen ranks fifth in the NFL in air yards per target, so not exactly his strong suit. Thielen is running most of his routes at RWR, but it seems the Texans will be having Bradley Roby try to follow him around the field. He’s been solid with the Texans, though not someone you must avoid, allowing a 63.6 percent catch-rate and 7.66 yards per target with a touchdown every 29.3 targets. He’s even gone into the slot to cover receivers, so Thielen likely has the toughest matchup on the field among Vikings receivers. With the expected increase in volume for this week, Thielen should get into the eight-plus target territory, so he should be played as a strong WR2, though he’s not a must-play in DFS cash games this week.

Justin Jefferson: Welcome to the NFL, Mr. Jefferson. After spending a couple weeks on the COVID list during training camp, it was obvious that Jefferson was behind. He quickly ascended up the depth chart and is the clear-cut No. 2 receiver to Adam Thielen, as Olabisi Johnson has now run just 44 routes through three games, while Jefferson is up to 72 of them (Thielen at 89). He’s amassed 3.40 yards per route run, which ranks first in the league among receivers with at least 10 targets. The matchup against the Texans is a good one, especially when you consider that Bradley Roby will likely shadow Adam Thielen. That means Jefferson will match up with Vernon Hargreaves for much of the day. He’s a former first-round pick who the Bucs moved on from but has found a starting job in Houston. Over the course of his four-plus-year career, he’s allowed 9.02 yards per target in his coverage, including a touchdown every 27.0 targets. He’s allowed a 102.6 or higher QB Rating in his coverage in 4-of-5 years. If this game turns into a shootout, this matchup sets up well for Jefferson. He’s not a must-start just yet, but he could be played as a semi-decent WR4 option this week if you’re dealing with some injuries.

Will Fuller: It was good to see Fuller get through his hamstring woes to catch 4-of-5 targets against the tough Steelers defense for 54 yards and a touchdown. He also played more snaps (45) than any other receiver, so he wasn’t limited in any way. The Vikings already had cornerback issues, but they were without both Mike Hughes and Cameron Dantzler last week. On the year, they’ve allowed a massive 2.27 PPR points per target to wide receivers, which ranks as the second-most to only the Cowboys. It’s not all touchdowns, either. They’ve allowed a 73.8 percent completion rate and 10.4 yards per target to them, so if Fuller gets one of his high-target games, he just might explode. The Vikings have also allowed the third-most passing plays (14) of 20-plus yards this year, so it’s not just high-percentage throws they’re struggling with. Even if they were to get Dantzler back, he’s a rookie who’s allowed a 154.5 QB Rating in his coverage. If you have Fuller on your squad, start him in this game (and nearly every game he’s healthy) and live with the ups and downs. This could be one of those really big ups.

Brandin Cooks: Suddenly, Cooks leads the team in targets, though 18 targets through three games is hardly anything to latch onto as a fantasy manager, especially when he’s caught just 55.6 percent of the passes thrown his way. That mark should improve against the Vikings who’ve already let five different wide receivers finish with 11.9 or more PPR points, which is typically enough to get into WR3 territory. Cooks will see the most of rookies Jeff Gladney or Cameron Dantzler, who’ve both struggled to keep up early in their careers. The duo has allowed a combined 19-of-25 passing for 277 yards and two touchdowns to this point. There are going to be a lot of fantasy players who are going after Will Fuller this week, and rightfully so, but Cooks should not be forgotten about in this matchup as he and Watson continue to build chemistry. You should seriously consider Cooks for your WR3 spot this week. He’s a great tournament option.

Randall Cobb: It was good to see Cobb and the Texans take advantage of a good matchup in the slot last week, though he did only finish with four targets. His season-high is six targets, so it’s tough to trust him in fantasy circles just yet. But when you look at the matchup against the Vikings this week, it’s tough to turn away all together, as they’ve allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers through three weeks, even though they’ve seen just the 14th-most targets. His matchup in the slot will likely be against Mike Hughes, as long as he returns from his injury. Hughes is arguably the best cornerback on the roster, but it that’s not saying much, as he’s allowed 8-of-9 targets to be completed for 89 yards and a touchdown in his coverage. The injury that caused him to miss Week 3 may have affected his play, but whatever the case, it’s tough to see Watson checking down a whole lot when both Fuller and Cooks have great matchups on the perimeter. The Texans can pick and choose their matchups to target, but Cooks has been last in the pecking order to this point, making him a risky WR5 play, even in a good matchup. *Update* Hughes has been ruled out, upgrading Cobb’s matchup, though he’s still not a must-play. 

TEs
Irv Smith and Kyle Rudolph: Another week has passed and another week we have no Vikings tight end totaling more than three targets. In fact, you’d have to go all the way back to Week 13 of last year to find the last time one of them saw more than four targets. On a team that runs the ball 46.2 percent of the time, that’ll happen, especially when you have an emerging No. 2 receiver in Justin Jefferson. The Texans aren’t a great matchup for tight ends, either. Sure, you can look at the fact that Travis Kelce had a solid game and then realize that Eric Ebron posted 52 yards and a touchdown against them last week, but don’t miss the game in between there where they held Mark Andrews to just one catch for 29 yards. Going back to last year, there were just three tight ends who recorded more than 11.6 PPR points against them, so the upside was limited. It’s clearly not a MUST avoid matchup, but when you have tight ends who are seemingly capped at three or four targets, it’s not clearly not a must-play situation, either.

Jordan Akins: It’s really upsetting to see Akins continually overlooked in the offensive gameplan, as he’s been a force since joining the team, averaging a solid 8.32 yards per target. He’s caught 11-of-12 targets for 122 yards and a touchdown this year, but he has two games with three or less targets. Meanwhile, the Vikings are allowing a massive 10.53 yards per target to tight ends over the first three weeks. They still haven’t allowed a touchdown, so the fantasy points against say they’re the 10th-toughest matchup in the league. Watching Mo Alie-Cox and Jonnu Smith combine to catch 10-of-14 passes for 141 yards over the last two weeks should give the Texans a blueprint for success with Akins. He hasn’t been used enough to play over high-floor options, but Akins is not a bad streamer in a game the Texans are projected for 27.8 points.

Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins

Total: 54.0
Line: SEA by 6.5

QBs
Russell Wilson: He’s thrown 14 touchdowns through the first three games, which is the most in NFL history. And now, he’s going to be playing without his starting running back? The Seahawks are letting Wilson go for the MVP and they’re 3-0 because of him. Now headed to Miami to play a Dolphins team that has allowed a league-high 8.80 yards per target? Despite the signing of cornerback Byron Jones in free agency and the draft pick of Noah Igbinoghene, the Dolphins have not been able to curb the production to quarterbacks. Sure, Gardner Minshew had a dud on Thursday night, but he was without his star wide receiver and starting center. He’s also not someone who’s expected to light up opposing defenses. The prior week, it was fellow MVP candidate Josh Allen who threw for a career-high 417 yards and four touchdowns against them. The Dolphins haven’t generated more than a 36 percent pressure rate over the first three games, so it’s not like Wilson will be rushed. Knowing they’ve allowed two top-six quarterbacks through three games, there should be no worry about Wilson this week, who’s on a record-setting pace. He’s safe for cash games and tournaments with his 30.3 team-implied total.

Ryan Fitzpatrick: We’ve now watched Fitzpatrick post 24 fantasy points in back-to-back games. That’s a mark he hit in just three games last year, though it’s worth noting that two of them came in the team’s final two games. So, over his last five games, Fitzpatrick has scored at least 24 fantasy points in four of them. Going back to Week 7 of last year, Fitzpatrick has actually scored the fourth-most fantasy points over that span. Crazy, right? Only Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, and Josh Allen have outscored him. The Seahawks are struggling to generate any sort of pass rush through three weeks, and it’s led to them allowing 8.51 yards per target, which is the third-highest mark in football. The combination of quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends are averaging 127.5 PPR points per game against them; only the Falcons allow more. The Seahawks have oddly held opposing run games in check, too. That’s been highlighted in the fact that quarterbacks have averaged 11.88 more fantasy points than running backs against them. Does that seem normal to you? There are just two other teams who’ve allowed quarterbacks 1.97 more points per game than running backs. Knowing no quarterback has finished with less than 23.9 fantasy points against the Seahawks, you can say it’s safe to stream Fitzpatrick as a low-end QB1/high-end QB2, and he might come with a top-five ceiling.

RBs
Carlos Hyde and Chris Carson: It seems like a foregone conclusion that Chris Carson will miss this week’s game with a sprained knee, which is a similar injury to the 49ers’ Raheem Mostert. That means we’ll see Hyde in the starting role against the Dolphins. They’ve oddly been better against the run that you’d expect, as they’ve allowed just 87.0 rushing yards per game to running backs, which ranks as the 12th-fewest in the NFL. Part of the reason they’ve looked good in that department is due to how bad they’ve been against the pass. Running backs have averaged just 19.0 carries per game against them, while racking up 32.0 pass attempts. Efficiency has been the name of the game against this defense, as their opponents have averaged just 61.7 plays per game, which ranks as the sixth-lowest, but they’re allowing the 15th-most fantasy points per game as a whole to opponents. On a per-play basis, that’s horrible efficiency. It’s concerning that no running back has totaled more than 11 carries against the Dolphins to this point, but we have to expect Hyde to cross that mark with no Carson. I’m expecting 12-15 carries with a few targets mixed in, making him a high-end RB3 this week. *Update* Carson practiced in a limited fashion throughout the week and they’re saying he has a chance to play. We won’t know until Sunday, but even if he does play, it’s possible they limit his touches in what’s projected to be a blowout. If active, he’d be a risky RB2/3 option while Hyde would move into the RB4 territory. *NEW UPDATE* Carson is now expected to play while Hyde (shoulder) is expected to be inactive. 

Myles Gaskin, Jordan Howard, and Matt Breida: This backfield is getting clearer by the week. Gaskin got the start last week and received 27 of the team’s 33 running back touches but lost them when they mattered most – the goal line. Howard has a league-high eight carries inside the five-yard line, while Ryan Fitzpatrick has two, and Gaskin has one. Remember Devin Singletary last year? That’s kind of the comp you get with Gaskin. Just 17 percent of all fantasy production the Seahawks have allowed to skill-position players has gone to running backs, which is by far the lowest mark in the league, so it’s not a great matchup to attack with the Dolphins backfield. Through three games, they’ve yet to allow a team of running backs total more than 72 rushing yards, and that includes the Cowboys and Ezekiel Elliott last week when he totaled just 34 yards on 14 carries. The issue is that most teams are falling behind early and often, forcing them to go pass-heavy, which is why no team has totaled more than 18 carries with their running backs through three games. They have allowed two different running backs (Rex Burkhead, Elliott) to total at least 8.4 PPR points through the air over the last two games, so we should still see Gaskin produce a semi-decent floor in this matchup, even if the upside is capped. Consider him a low-end RB3/high-end RB4-type option who’s safer than most in that area. Howard is droppable in all formats, as he’s only being used in goal-line situations, which doesn’t happen often enough in the Dolphins offense. Breida is clearly not someone who should be rostered, as he’s totaled five or less touches in 2-of-3 games without any goal-line work.

WRs
D.K. Metcalf: Fact, D.K. Metcalf is the No. 5 fantasy receiver through three weeks. Also a fact, he made a bad mistake in Week 3 that cost him the No. 4 wide receiver spot when he lollygagged the last couple yards to the end zone and had the ball knocked out of his hands and into the end zone for a touchback. His size/speed combination is unstoppable when you combine it with Russell Wilson‘s deadly accuracy down the field. Metcalf has been moving to both sides of the formation, but he’s mostly been at LWR which means he’ll see a lot of Xavien Howard in this game. According to Brian Flores, Howard “wasn’t ready” to shadow any wide receiver, so he allowed rookie Noah Igbinoghene to shadow Stefon Diggs in Week 1. While I doubt he does that again, it’s possible. I don’t know why Howard is being questioned by Flores, but he’s obviously in practice every day, seeing him up close and personal. Howard is definitely an above-average cornerback, but he’s also not a fast guy. He ran a 4.58-second 40-yard dash coming into the NFL, while we know Metcalf has legit 4.33-second speed. You’re playing Metcalf every week and this one is no different, especially considering there will be more targets to go around with Chris Carson out of the lineup. He’s now ranked inside my top-12 wide receivers for the remainder of the season, though Lockett does have a slightly better matchup than him this week.

Tyler Lockett: Just when fantasy managers go thinking that Metcalf is the top guy for the Seahawks, Lockett goes and drops a 100-yard, three-touchdown game. He’s also seen a steady stream of targets with at least eight of them in each game. The matchup with the Dolphins only gets better, as he’ll see former undrafted free agent Jamal Perry in the slot, a cornerback who’s allowed a 102.4 QB Rating in his coverage over the course of his career. He’s only been targeted six times this year, but he’s allowed all of them to be completed for 58 yards. The Dolphins have allowed the eighth-most yards per target to wide receivers, including a massive 69.8 percent completion-rate, so if Lockett sees the eight-plus targets he’s been getting, he could produce top-five numbers again. Start him as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2, at worst.

DeVante Parker: All they talked about on the broadcast last week was how Parker wasn’t 100 percent, yet he came down with all five of his targets for 69 yards. It would’ve been 70-plus yards with a touchdown if not for him drawing a pass interference call on the goal-line. He’s now caught 14-of-17 targets on the season for 169 yards and a touchdown. He’ll be coming off a 10-day break to play the Seahawks. They’re a team that’s allowed a massive 73.2 PPR points per game to wide receivers. Of the fantasy points they’ve allowed to running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends combined, a league-leading 74.1 percent of them have gone to wide receivers. They’ve been a funnel defense, as the wide receivers are outscoring running backs by 56.4 points per game while no other team in the league has a gap larger than 27.1 points per game. Knowing the Seahawks have allowed five top-10 wide receiver performances through three games, you should probably start Parker as a strong WR2 this week.

Preston Williams: His targets have gone down every week and bottomed out at just two targets against the Jaguars. Sure, he caught a touchdown, but finishing with seven yards isn’t starting material, even in a game they didn’t throw a whole lot. This week, targets shouldn’t be hard to come by. Receivers have combined to average a league-high 105 targets against them through three weeks. Think about that for a minute. 105 targets in three games, or 35.0 per game. The Dolphins don’t have a big spread of targets, either. Because of those targets, the Seahawks have allowed nine different wide receivers to finish as the WR31 or better against them, including seven of them to finish as top-24 options. Williams has played on both sides of the formation, almost equally, so there’s not one matchup to analyze. I said last week, I don’t think Williams is 100 percent off his ACL surgery and there’s been some hiccups in his play, though this matchup might be good enough to consider him as an upside WR4.

TEs
Greg Olsen: Maybe Olsen was put into the doghouse last week after that interception that went off his helmet? That was the only target he saw in Week 2, but he bounced back with six targets and five catches for 61 yards in Week 3. It was Jacob Hollister who stole the touchdown, but he played just 11 snaps, so don’t think there’s anything there.  The Dolphins allowed 12 different tight ends to record 32-plus receiving yards against them in 2019, though just one topped 60 yards, so it wasn’t a must-play matchup. Through three games in 2020, they haven’t allowed any tight end to top 35 yards, though none of them have seen more than four targets. With Chris Carson out for this game, we could see more targets funneled to the tight ends, as those two positions correlate more than others. Still, the one-target game lingers in our minds and doesn’t allow us to fully trust Olsen despite the fact that his quarterback is the MVP through three weeks. He should be considered a middling TE2 this week who might see an expanded role, though Will Dissly continues to get healthier coming off that Achilles injury.

Mike Gesicki: He’s now seen 19 targets through three games, so it’s fair to say he’s going to in your lineup more often than he isn’t. The obvious downside is that he’s finished with 30 yards or less in two of his three games and was supposed to have a matchup with Jamal Adams this week, though Adams is highly questionable after suffering a groin injury in Week 3 that forced him out of the game. Teams have avoided throwing to tight ends against the Seahawks, as just 10.3 percent of targets have gone their way, which is the lowest number in the league. Again, if Adams is out, that would be a massive boost for Gesicki. Not just that, but rookie linebacker Jordyn Brooks is also highly questionable with a soft tissue injury. Suddenly, they’re looking like the team they were last year; the one that allowed 10 different tight ends post double-digit PPR numbers, including eight of them who were top-six options. Gesicki has double-digit targets as a possibility in this game, which puts him smack dab in the middle of the TE1 conversation. He would be downgraded to low-end TE1 if Adams were to play, but I’m not expecting that.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (Postponed)

Editor’s Note: This game will not be played in week 4.

QBs
Ben Roethlisberger: Through three games, Roethlisberger has not had that big explosion, but he has performed just as he was drafted. His fantasy finishes in the games have been QB11, QB16, and QB13. He’s essentially a high-end QB2 who might offer some upside with an opponent who can put points on the board. The Titans have scored at least 31 points in their last two games, but I don’t know how they’ll get there with way the Steelers strengths match up with theirs. Despite playing against Drew Lock, Gardner Minshew, and Kirk Cousins, the Titans have allowed a 6.7 percent touchdown rate through three games, which ranks as the eighth-highest in the league. Part of the issue is that they’re pressuring the quarterback (third-highest average pressure rate), but aren’t bringing him down, as their sack rate is just 3.7 percent (eighth-lowest). If they don’t get to Roethlisberger, he’ll make them pay, as he’s currently the No. 6 quarterback in the league with a 93.8 QB Rating under pressure. What might hold Roethlisberger back from having a big game, however, is the fact that the Titans can not stop the run right now and have allowed over 100 yards and a touchdown on the ground to every team they’ve played, including 208 yards and a touchdown to the Vikings last week. It’s also been well-documented how Roethlisberger doesn’t play as well on the road, which adds another wrinkle. Consider him a mid-to-high-end QB2 with the way he’s been playing.

Ryan Tannehill: For those who were waiting for Tannehill to flop, you got your wish in Week 3 as he finished with just 11.74 fantasy points against the Vikings despite the team putting 31 points on the board. That was Tannehill’s worst fantasy day since joining the Titans, and just the second time he’s scored fewer than 17.9 fantasy points. Unfortunately, we may get back-to-back duds considering his Week 4 opponent. The Steelers have pressured the opposing quarterback on over 53 percent of their dropbacks in two games and then 42.4 percent in the third game. How ridiculous is that? Well, no other team is averaging over a 39.9 percent pressure rate. Not just that, but they’re also leading the league in sack percentage at 12.3 percent. With that being said, they haven’t completely shut down any passing game just yet, as Daniel Jones, Jeff Driskel, and Deshaun Watson have all thrown for at least 256 yards and two touchdowns against them, finishing as top-20 quarterbacks. That’s quite different from last year when the Steelers allowed just three quarterbacks to throw for more than 196 yards in the 14 games with Minkah Fitzpatrick. Still, it’s not much to brag about because none of the three quarterbacks this year have surpassed 17.36 fantasy points. It also seems likely that Tannehill will be without his top receiver once again, as A.J. Brown is dealing with a bone bruise that’s not responding well to treatment. There are better streaming options out there this week, even if the Steelers matchup may not be as daunting as it used to be.

RBs
James Conner: Despite essentially not playing in Week 1, Conner is back into the top-15 running backs on the season after back-to-back 100-yard performances against the Broncos and Texans. He’s being used in the clear-cut workhorse role, totaling 41 of the 54 opportunities (75.9 percent) available to Steelers running backs in those two games. The Titans are suddenly having issues stopping the run, as they’ve allowed three straight running backs to finish as the RB14 or better. First it was Melvin Gordon as the RB14, then James Robinson as the RB9, and lastly Dalvin Cook who finished as the RB6. Each running back totaled at least 15 carries and found the end zone on the ground, though they didn’t have much success through the air. The 98 receiving yards through three games is the 12th-fewest allowed to running backs, though it’s not due to a lack of trying, as the 21 targets suggest. The 4.67 yards per target is one of the better marks in the league, but why move the ball like that when you’re averaging 5.90 yards per carry on the ground like teams have. It’s also a positive to know the Titans opponents have averaged a rather-high 65.0 plays per game, so even if the Steelers want to throw the ball a bit, it should leave a big workload for Conner. He doesn’t look particularly explosive to this point, but against this defense, he might not have to be. Consider him a high-end RB2 in what’s been a great matchup for lead backs, especially on early downs.

Derrick Henry: The Titans aren’t taking it easy on Henry to start the year, as he’s racked up 82 carries over three games, including at least 25 in each of them. The last player to do that was Arian Foster in 2012 (he finished as the RB3 that year). Henry also found the end zone twice last week after two straight weeks of being held out. That’s going to be important in Week 3 because the Steelers are a handful for running backs. Here’s a fun fact: Since the start of 2019, a span of 19 games, the Steelers have not allowed a single RB1 performance. Through three weeks in 2020, they’ve allowed just 18.1 fantasy points to running backs on the ground, and keep in mind they played Saquon Barkley, Melvin Gordon, and David Johnson. The crazy part about the miniscule 0.68 PPR points per opportunity they’ve allowed to this point is actually more than it was last year when they allowed a league-low 0.66 PPR points per opportunity to running backs. You’ll hear some say running back matchups don’t matter, but against the Steelers, they absolutely do, as you need twice the volume to produce against them compared to teams like the Raiders, Panthers, and Packers. Henry needs to be in your lineup every week, including this one, but temper expectations. Without a really long run, he’s going to struggle to finish as a top-15 running back.

WRs
JuJu Smith-Schuster: The good news is that Smith-Schuster is the No. 9 wide receiver through three weeks. The bad news is that it’s been very touchdown dependent, as he ranks 30th in wide receiver targets. One of the reasons I loved Smith-Schuster in the 3rd/4th round of drafts this year was because I figured he was a lock for 140 targets. He’s not getting there are his current pace (101-target pace). Do you remember who broke out last week for 175 yards and a touchdown? Justin Jefferson. Do you know where he plays most of the time? In the slot, the same as Smith-Schuster. The Titans have moved to rookie Kristian Fulton to cover the slot after Chris Jackson struggled, though they play plenty of zone, which means there won’t be a specific matchup for Smith-Schuster. What we do know is that Jerry Jeudy caught four passes for 56 yards (in his first NFL game), Keelan Cole tagged them for 6/58/1, and then Jefferson for 7/175/1. Those are the slot-heavy receivers they’ve played. The game plan should feature a lot of Smith-Schuster this week, especially with Diontae Johnson going through the concussion protocol. Start him as a sturdy WR2 with some serious upside.

Diontae Johnson: After taking a big hit early in the second quarter of last week’s game, Johnson was placed into the concussion protocol. Being he was placed in it right away and doesn’t have a bad history, he has a chance to play this game. Stay tuned for updates as the week goes on. The matchup with the Titans has been a great one for receivers, as the aging duo of Johnathan Joseph and Malcolm Butler are struggling to keep up. The Titans are hoping to get Adoree Jackson back soon, though it doesn’t sound like a guarantee he’ll be ready for this matchup. The duo of Butler and Joseph have combined to allow 21-of-33 passing for 318 yards and two touchdowns in their coverage to this point. Against a shifty, young receiver like Johnson who continually generates separation, they’ll struggle. If Johnson gets cleared, I’d have no issue starting him as a high-end WR3 in this matchup.

James Washington and Chase Claypool: If Diontae Johnson were forced to miss this game, then we’d look to these two for a potential solution. It should be noted that in a game Johnson left mid-second quarter, we saw Claypool out-snap Washington 61-49, though it was Washington who had more production, catching 5-of-7 targets for 36 yards. Neither had a massive game, but against the Titans secondary that’s allowed 1.94 PPR points per target to wide receivers, there could be some value. They have allowed nine passing plays of 20-plus yards this year, so the deep ball isn’t off the table if the Steelers offensive line can protect Roethlisberger against the Titans fierce pass-rush. Knowing Washington got the edge last week, he’d be the one I’d lean towards if Johnson were to sit. Still, he’d be a risk/reward WR4 at that point. Stay tuned for updates on Johnson.

A.J. Brown: It turns out that Brown is dealing with a bone bruise on his knee and it has not been responding to treatment as well as they’d like. That sounds ominous for his availability for this week, so be prepared to be without your early-round pick once again in Week 4.

Corey Davis: It would be nice if the Titans could just commit to throwing the ball Davis’ way more than 5-6 times, as his 10.8 yards per target is massive. He hasn’t topped six targets in each of the last two weeks despite plus matchups against the Jaguars and Vikings, so why should we expect them against the Steelers tough secondary this week? Some may say the Steelers have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers through three weeks, and while I cannot disagree with that, it’s a small sample size. This is the same scheme and same cornerbacks that allowed the sixth-fewest points to them in 2019. Steven Nelson has had a rough start to the year allowing three touchdowns in his coverage, but we have a five-year sample of play where he’s been above average, so we can’t assume he’ll continue to play poorly. Joe Haden is the one who’ll see Davis the most, though, and he’s been his usual self, allowing just 5-of-11 passing for 91 scoreless yards with an interception. You’d have to go back to 2016 to find the last time Haden allowed higher than an 83.4 QB Rating in his coverage over the course of a season. Davis remains in WR4 territory with the lack of targets combined with the tough matchup.

Adam Humphries: He’s quietly leading the Titans in targets through three weeks, as he hasn’t seen fewer than six targets in any one game. He hasn’t totaled less than four catches for 41 yards in any game, but he also hasn’t topped 48 yards in any game, so we’ve been looking at a solid floor/low ceiling option. The best matchup on the field against the Steelers is the slot, as Mike Hilton is the weakest link. Over the last two weeks, we’ve watched Jerry Jeudy total 4/62/0 on seven targets and then Randall Cobb post 4/95/1 on four targets, which are both usable performances. Still, going back to the start of last year, the Steelers have allowed just 13 wide receivers total more than four receptions, and we know Humphries isn’t breaking a big play (never averaged more than 11.3 yards per reception in a season). There’s just not enough upside to trust him in a below-average matchup.

TEs
Eric Ebron: I mentioned it last week, that Ebron was running more snaps than I expected him to and that a big performance would happen at some point, though we wanted a high-scoring game. Well, we didn’t have that, but we did have an injury that opened the door to more targets. He’s now seen 12 targets over the last two games, which is enough to start considering him streaming material, though it would certainly hurt his ceiling if Diontae Johnson returns. The Titans have allowed a tight end touchdown in each of their three games this year. Them struggling with tight ends is nothing new, as they allowed 12 different tight end post top-15 numbers against them in 2019. The issue is that Smith-Schuster has a great matchup, Conner should be able to run all over them, and if Johnson returns, he has a plus-matchup, which drives uncertainty into Ebron’s projection. He’s far from a sure thing, but Ebron is creeping up the TE2 conversation and can be used if you’re okay with a lower fantasy floor. If Johnson were to miss the game, he’d be a solid streamer.

Jonnu Smith: Week 3 was the first one Smith didn’t score, but he was targeted in the end zone and was inches away from a touchdown. He’s now seen 20 targets through three games and we’re getting the opportunity/breakout we wanted. Those targets are going to be important against a Steelers team that’s allowed just a 50 percent completion-rate to tight ends through three games. The sacrifice has come on the back end, though, as we’ve watched them allow more big plays to receivers. Going back to last year, the Steelers one are of weakness was tight ends, as they allowed 1.93 PPR points per target to them, which ranked as the fifth-most in football, though they saw just 93 targets on the season, limiting production overall. There were just four tight ends who saw more than five targets against them, and those tight ends finished as the TE1, TE6, TE11, and TE11. Smith has become a must-play TE1 every single week, especially when you consider how creative they are to get him the ball close to the line of scrimmage and letting him create after the catch. His 98 yards after the catch leads all tight ends. Start him and hope for the best against this tough defense.

Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys

Total: 55.5
Line: DAL by 5.5

QBs
Baker Mayfield: I’m not sure if you’ve heard but the Browns are above .500 for the first time in the history of the world. I’m kidding, of course, but they’re 2-1 after beating the Bengals and Washington. Let’s dial back the enthusiasm a bit. Mayfield has thrown the ball 46 times… over the last two weeks combined. Under Kevin Stefanski, he’s still yet to throw for more than 219 yards in a game. That will likely change this week when the Browns head to Dallas. The Cowboys defense has allowed a robust 8.07 yards per attempt over the first three games, combined with an 8.4 percent touchdown-rate. When you add it up, you get 0.65 fantasy points per actual pass attempt, which is the most in the league (second is the Jaguars at 0.63). Some may say their schedule is the reason for that, which is partly true, but they also just sent their best cornerback Chidobe Awuzie to IR prior to last week’s game. The Cowboys opponents are also averaging a massive 71.3 plays per game, so even if the Browns stick to their run-heavy ways, we’re likely to see 35-plus attempts out of Mayfield this week in a game with a 55.5-point total. It’s not going to be often I recommend streaming Mayfield in this run-heavy offense, but if there’s a week you should be able to trust him to post top-15 numbers, it’s this one.

Dak Prescott: It’s really been an up-and-down year for Prescott to this point, as he’s thrown for 450-plus yards in each of the last two games and has eight total touchdowns (5 passing, 3 rushing), but his team is currently sitting at 1-2. Can the Browns defense allow them to get back on track as a team? They did allow both Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow to throw three touchdowns against them, and then even Dwayne Haskins threw two of them last week (should have been much more). The only negative is that they’ve allowed a miniscule 6.65 yards per attempt, which ranks as the sixth-lowest mark in the league. We know touchdowns can be tricky to project, but both numbers are too small of a sample size to assume anything. The Browns pressure rate has gone down in each game, bottoming out at 22 percent last week against the Washington offensive line, which is great news for Prescott. The Browns opponents have also averaged a sky-high 69.3 plays per game, so knowing the Cowboys pass the ball on 65.7 percent of their plays (fourth-highest in the league), there should be plenty of opportunity for the Cowboys to expose the Browns weaknesses in the secondary. Prescott should be started as a high-end QB1, as he typically is. He should be fine for cash lineups, though Ezekiel Elliott may cap some of that upside you want when paying up.

RBs
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt: The Browns running backs are averaging a massive 34.0 touches per game this season, which is more than the Vikings running backs averaged last year under Kevin Stefanski. That also means there’s plenty of room for both running backs to produce on a weekly basis. While Chubb has four rushing touchdowns to Hunt’s one, they’re both getting similar workloads in the red zone, as Hunt actually has one more carry inside the 20-yard-line. Everyone knows Hunt is the preferred option in the passing game, but there may not be a whole lot for them to split this week, as running backs have seen just 13.1 percent of the targets when playing against the Cowboys, which is the lowest mark in the league. Under Mike Nolan, this team is actually the second-most efficient defense against running backs, as they’ve allowed just 0.62 PPR points per opportunity to running backs. We’ve seen four different running backs total 15-plus touches against them, though just one of them has topped 10.6 PPR points, and that was Malcolm Brown who scored two touchdowns. It’s clear they’ve placed an emphasis on limiting the run, and against the Browns, that will be necessary. This game has the highest total on the board, so you can’t avoid Chubb and Hunt, but it’s not likely going to be another game where they combine for 174 total yards and three touchdowns like they did against Washington. Chubb should be considered a high-end RB2 while Hunt falls into the low-end RB2/high-end RB3 territory. *Update* Hunt is dealing with a groin strain that kept him out of practice on Wednesday and Thursday. He did put in a limited practice on Friday, so it seems he’ll give it a shot, but they may scale back his role a bit.  

Ezekiel Elliott: It was one of Elliott’s worst games in the NFL last week when he rushed for just 34 yards against the Seahawks. That’s the third-lowest total of his career, though you shouldn’t get used to it. The Browns are a team that you can run the ball against. Some will say they’ve still yet to allow a running back more than 15.0 PPR points, but I’ll remind you they’ve played against Mark Ingram, Joe Mixon, and Antonio Gibson, who have all struggled to start the year. It’s still pretty shocking to see that the Browns haven’t allowed a team of running backs more than 70 yards on the season considering their linebacker and safety issues. There are multiple avenues for Elliott, though, as they’ve allowed 15 receptions for 110 yards through the air to running backs over the last two weeks. The Browns have only faced 56 carries despite their opponents running 69.3 plays per game to this point. So, it’s no shock to see their opponents have called a pass play on 63.5 percent of plays, which ranks as the sixth-most in the league. The Cowboys need to bring more balance to their offense, and it should start in this game. Elliott should be started as a high-end RB1 against a team that allowed seven different top-six running backs last year. I’d certainly consider him in cash games.

WRs
Odell Beckham Jr.: I’m not sure what many are expecting out of Beckham while Mayfield has thrown the ball just 46 times over the last two weeks. That’s a mark that quarterbacks hit in one game. Think about it: If we combined those games and got the 46 attempts from Mayfield and 12 targets from Beckham, we’d be excited, especially considering they amounted to 8/133/1. But that’s the thing. This offense doesn’t want to throw the ball very much, which takes away appeal in games the Browns win. They’re big underdogs here, which should amount to more pass attempts, as well as more appeal for someone like Beckham. On top of that, the Cowboys just sent their best cornerback (Chidobe Awuzie) to the IR before last week’s game. That leaves them starting rookie Trevon Diggs and veteran Daryl Worley at cornerback. That duo has combined to allow 20-of-28 passing for 286 yards and two touchdowns through three games. It would have been three touchdowns if not for Diggs knocking the ball out of D.K. Metcalf‘s hand at the goal-line. There is no secondary in the league who’s allowing more fantasy points per target (2.28) than the Cowboys. You should be willing to start Beckham this week as a low-end WR1 who could explode if the Browns throw the ball more than 35 times.

Jarvis Landry: Is the hip injury limiting Landry more than we are being let on? Landry has just 13 targets through three games, and though he’s caught 12 of them, they’ve been very unimpactful, as he doesn’t have a single game with more than 8.6 half-PPR points. The matchup is a good one this week, but so were the last two against the Bengals and Washington. The difference this week is that the Browns are not favored to win and won’t throw the ball just 23 times like they did in those two games. The Cowboys have two starting cornerbacks on IR right now, and they weren’t great to begin with. Jourdan Lewis is the cornerback who’s covering the slot for them, a former third-round pick from 2017 who’s allowed 45-of-65 passing for 574 yards and four touchdowns in his coverage since the start of 2019. The slot receivers who’ve played against the Cowboys this year: Cooper Kupp 4/40/0, Russell Gage 6/46/1, Tyler Lockett 9/100/3. Do you see the trend, especially since Anthony Brown went to the IR after Week 1 (against Kupp)? Landry has been a disappointment so far, but in a game we’re projecting more pass attempts, he makes a lot of sense as a middling WR3 who might surprise.

Amari Cooper: We’re now three games in and Cooper’s role only continues to shine. He’s seen 35 targets in them, which puts him on pace for 186.7 targets on the season. That’s not going to happen, but it’s clear he’s going to surpass the 119 targets he saw in 2019. He’s been consistent with those targets, too, totaling at least nine catches and/or 100 yards in every game. Now coming back to Dallas where he’s played his best, you should be excited. The Browns don’t shadow with their cornerbacks, so Cooper will see a mixture of everyone, though about 40 percent of his snaps would be played against the Browns best cornerback, Denzel Ward, if he’s available. Ward has been trying to play through an injury and it has led to two touchdowns allowed in his coverage over the last two weeks. He also had to leave the game against Washington last week after playing just 29 snaps with a groin injury. Those are not good signs when you’re about to go against Cooper. If Ward sits, we’d see Kevin Johnson take his place on the perimeter. Johnson has allowed a 110.5 QB Rating in his coverage over his six-year NFL career. Start Cooper no matter what, but his matchup goes through the roof if Ward sits (he’s listed as questionable).

Michael Gallup: And just like that, Gallup is the No. 2 fantasy receiver on the Cowboys again. He saw a season-high nine targets in Week 3 while CeeDee Lamb conceded some snaps to Cedrick Wilson (injury related?). The Browns are a team that plays sides, so we know the matchups each receiver will have most of the time. Gallup plays most of his snaps at LWR which means he’ll see a lot of Terrance Mitchell. He’s not a household name, but he’s been very good in a Browns uniform, allowing just a 75.0 QB Rating in his coverage since the start of 2018. He’s been a bright spot in 2020, allowing just 7-of-19 passing for 94 yards, though one of those completions was for a touchdown. If there’s an area Gallup can get him, it’s over the top, as Mitchell’s 40-time on record is 4.63 seconds, which is among the slowest cornerbacks in the league. With that being said, the Browns have allowed just one 40-plus yard passing play on the season. Gallup is back in fantasy managers good graces, though he remains a semi-risky WR3 until we see him get targets on a consistent basis.

CeeDee Lamb: Did Lamb suffer an injury in Week 3 that we didn’t see much about? He took a hit near his knee that looked like it could be painful and played 49 snaps while Gallup played 70 and Cooper played 65. It could be nothing but why does Cedrick Wilson go from someone who played nine snaps in the first two weeks combined, to 24 snaps with a lot of opportunity in Week 3? Pay attention to the practice reports throughout the week. The Browns have used a combination of M.J. Stewart and Tavierre Thomas to cover the slot this year, and they’ve combined to allow 15-of-19 passing for 127 yards and a touchdown, so the matchup is a good one. If the Browns are without Denzel Ward, the matchup is also top-notch for someone like Cooper, who has been getting a lot of targets. Lamb has still seen at least six targets in every game, so his floor is in the stable WR3/4 range, though the decrease in snaps has me concerned. If he practices in full this week, I’d move him into the WR3 conversation.

TEs
Austin Hooper: There are a lot of fantasy managers who drafted Hooper that are throwing things right now, as he’s totaled just 10 targets, seven receptions, and 62 yards through three games. That might be okay for a one-week performance. Are you ready for the positive news? His eight targets over the last two weeks have accounted for a solid 17.4 percent target share. That would be more than okay for streamers, though we’re going to need more than 23 pass attempts. Against the Cowboys, we should be getting quite a few pass attempts considering they’ve slowed down opposing run games this year. Opponents have targeted tight ends on 22.4 percent of their pass attempts against the Cowboys, which is a stable number, and they’ve allowed a healthy 1.98 PPR points per target to them. Hooper is a better option than most think in this game, which is a good thing for those playing in tournaments. In season-long leagues, Hooper is not a bad TE2 streamer who might surprise.

Dalton Schultz: Even in what’s been a tough matchup for tight ends, Schultz saw six targets against the Seahawks, catching four passes for 48 yards. He’s now seen a 15.4 percent target share from Prescott over the last two weeks since taking over as the starter. Considering Prescott hasn’t thrown the ball fewer than 39 times, that’s a good percentage for a streaming tight end. The Browns have allowed three top-16 performances against them over the first three games, but there have been four tight ends who’ve seen at least six targets. The 1.87 PPR points per target they’ve allowed is right in line with the league average, so it’s not a great matchup, but also not one to avoid. Teams have averaged 41.3 pass attempts per game against the Browns, so even though this is a game where the Cowboys may employ a run-heavy attack, we should see a decent number of attempts out of Prescott. Schultz is a solid high-floor TE2 who might get outshined by the Cowboys receivers, but he’s proven he’ll get targeted regardless.